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American focus: the risk sentiment has fallen.
The dollar touched a three-week low against the yen after China raised interest rates for the second time in just more than two months to contain inflation, boosting demand for refuge. The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened against most of their major counterparts as China’s rate increase damped the outlook for spending in one of the biggest export markets for commodities from the two South Pacific countries. The euro gained against 14 or its 16 most-traded counterparts after failing to break through a technical level. “A lot of the countries that are associated with China are down slightly on the concern that China is going to continue to hike interest rates,” said Andrew Busch, a global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago. “There’s a mild risk-off move and people are buying yen.” The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials dropped 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent.
USD/CAD holds tight

USD/CAD stranded inside a narrow C$1.0065/90 range and with minimal flows, Canadian markets closed for an extended break. Some flows going through on electronic platforms but otherwise all quiet, a local trader says.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.90            
Resistance 2:Y83.30            
Resistance 1:Y83.00            
Current price: Y82.97
Support 1:Y82.50           
Support 2:Y81.90           

Support 3:Y80.20           

Comments: Rate remains under pressure, holding within the downward channel from Dec 15, limited by Y82.50/Y83.30 (strong support/resistance respectively). Break under Y82.50 opens the way to Y81.90 (61,8% Fibo Y80,20-Y84,50) and then - to Nov lows on Y80.20. Resistance comes at Y83.00 (session high), then - Y83.30 (channel line). Above resistance comes at Y83.90 (Dec 21 high).
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9720               
Resistance 2: Chf0.9665               

Resistance 1: Chf0.9640               
Current price: Chf0.9617
Support 1: Chf0.9550                  
Support 2: Chf0.9500                  
Support 3: Chf0.9460                   

Comments: Techs hasn't changed much. Support is near Dec 24 lows on Chf0.9550. Below losses may widen to Chf0.9500 (Dec 22-23 lows), then - to Chf0.9460 (Oct lows). Resistance is around Chf0.9640 (session lows). Above resistance comes at Chf0.9665 (Dec 23 high).

Techs on GBP/USD

Resistance 3:$1.5630/50   
Resistance 2:$1.5580
Resistance 1:$1.5440
Current price: $1.5388
Support 1: $1.5350                
Support 2: $1.5300                 
Support 3: $1.5120                 

Comments: Rate remains under pressure, heading for support at $1.5350 (Dec 22 lows). Below losses may dip to $1.5300 (Sep lows). Resistance is around channel line from Dec 14 at $1.5440. Above gains may extend to $1.5580 (Dec 20 high). Stronger level comes at $1.5630/50 (Dec 17 high, 50,0% Fibo of $1.5910-$1.5350).
Techs on EUR/USD

Resistance 2:$1.3360             
Resistance 2:$1.3200            
Resistance 1:$1.3170             
Current price: $1.3143
Support 1: $1.3070/50        
Support 2: $1.2970              
Support 3: $1.2790              

Comments: Rate managed to refresh session highs, but still remains under pressure. Minor resistance comes at session hihs on $1.3170. Above the upside target is on $1.3200 (Dec 21 high). Support comes at $1.3070/50 (Dec 21-27 lows). Below losses may widen to $1.2970 (Dec and Nov lows). Further support is near $1.2790 (61.8% Fibo of $1.1870-$1.4285 move).
OIL: Slipping modestly, is down $0.75 at $90.76 and in the lower reaches of the day's $90.72/91.88 session range.
USD/JPY holds tight

USD/JPY holds Y82.85 area amid light flows, the pair contained to a narrow Y82.66/97 range overnight as exporter offers continue to slow any gains. Pair likely to find supply atop Y83.00.

Before the bell: Stocks set for lower open

U.S. stocks were set to open lower Monday as investors weighed a surprise interest rate hike in China as the nation struggles to keep its rapid growth and inflation in check.
"There's not a lot of economic news this week, so investors will be looking at China's move," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics.
On Sunday, the People's Bank of China raised its benchmark interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, increasing its one-year lending rate to 5.81% and the one-year deposit rate to 2.75%. It was the second hike in just over two months. China raised rates in October for the first time in three years.
"I'm not a big believer that China is that important right now, but a lot of people are concerned that China is slowing down its economy, which would affect the global economy," Brusca said.
On Thursday, stocks ended a strong week on a quiet note, as mixed economic data kept investors from jumping in ahead of a long holiday weekend.
While markets were closed Friday, stocks are still on track to post double-digit increases for the year.
Trading volume is expected to be extremely light. In addition to the holidays, a major snowstorm in the Northeast will likely keep many Wall Street employees from getting to work.
Companies: Airline stocks came under pressure Monday after carriers were forced to cancel and delay hundreds of flights due to a blizzard that pummeled the East Coast.
Shares of Delta (DAL, Fortune 500), JetBlue Airways (JBLU) and American Airlines' parent company AMR (AMR, Fortune 500) all dipped lower in premarket trading.

GBP/USD under pressure

GBP/USD holds $1.5400 area with London markets still closed for the Christmas holidays. Friday, cable bids were noted at $1.5380 area, offers atop $1.5480 and layered into $1.55500, those levels still likely relevant today.

Wall Street: Dow futures -50 points, Nasdaq futures -8

Futures trading with losses as the last week of the year kicks off, futures weighed by a risk off tone following the Christmas Day rate hike by China.

EUR/USD tries to recover

EUR/USD holds $1.3133 area and about the middle of the $1.3070/1.3173 overnight range, flows light with many European centers closed or thinly staffed as the Christmas holidays move along, London markets will be closed Tuesday also, and severe weather conditions aup and down the East coast keeping many at home or delayed. Bids at $1.308070 area and constrained by offers ahead of $1.3200, those levels prevailing today.

BNY-Mellon: US data confirm economy's strong momentum
"Сore durable goods have increased 17.1% over the past year, reflecting strong performance across every other major category. This report further confirms the economy's strong momentum going into 2011."
Asian session:

05:00     Japan     Housing starts (November) Y/Y    6.8%    
05:00     Japan     Construction orders (November) Y/Y    -5.3%   

The yen earlier touched a three-week high against the euro as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley said China’s monetary tightening in 2011 may be mainly in the first half as officials tackle the fastest inflation in more than two years.
The People’s Bank of China increased key one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points on Christmas Day in its second move since mid-October. The change took effect yesterday.
China may raise rates as many as three times in the first half of next year, according to Morgan Stanley, while JPMorgan forecasts two increases in that period.
The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index increased to 56.4 this month from 54.1 in November, according to the median estimate of economists before the data tomorrow.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3070 then grown in around  $1,3150.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,5400-$ 1,5460.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82,70.

Forex: Weekly review

On Monday the euro weakened on speculation some European nations will struggle to raise funds amid the region’s debt crisis after rating companies downgraded the creditworthiness of Ireland and considered additional cuts.
The Swiss franc climbed to a euro-era record, appreciating 1.1% to 1.2641. Against the dollar it appreciated 0.3% to 0.9655.
The Swiss National Bank last week held the three-month Libor target rate at 0.25% in an attempt to keep a lid on the currency. The franc’s strength against the euro has threatened the country’s export-led recovery.
On Tuesday the euro rose from near a two-week low against the dollar and yen after Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said his nation had taken “concrete action” to help the European Union with its debt problems.
On Wednesday the greenback fluctuated versus its major counterparts after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter, compared with the 2.8% pace forecast. The euro gained earlier as German import prices in November climbed the most in a decade.
The pound fell versus the euro after a report showed the U.K. economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated in the third quarter. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the third quarter. That compares with an initial estimate of 0.8%. Second-quarter growth was revised to 1.1% from 1.2%. Minutes of the Bank of England’s December meeting showed policy makers remained split in their decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.5 percent and the asset-purchase program unchanged at 200 billion pounds.
On Thursday the dollar fell against the yen for a fourth straight day in the longest stretch of declines in more than two months as reports showed the U.S. economic recovery is gathering pace, fueling demand for the Japanese currency to fund investments in growth.
The British currency rebounded from near a three-month low after BOE Markets Director Paul Fisher told the Daily Telegraph the U.K.’s borrowing costs will “head back to a normalized position” of 5 percent.
The yen gained for a fourth day versus the dollar, its longest streak since Oct. 8, on signs China is taking more measures to cool growth.
New Zealand’s currency surged as Finance Minister Bill English said the nation’s economic expansion will accelerate next year.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.50 (resistance line from Dec 16)

Resistance 1:Y83.00 (session low)
Current price: Y82.97
Support 1:Y82.30 (Dec 7 low, 50,0 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)
Support 2:Y81.90 (61,8 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)

Support 3:Y80.20 (low of November)

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - Y82,30. Below losses are possible to Y81.90. The nearest resistance - Y83,00. Above growth possible to Y83.50.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 low, Dec 17-20 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9665 (Dec 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9640 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9584
Support 1: Chf0.9550 (Dec 24 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9500 (Dec 22-23 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9460 (low of October)

Comments: the pair bargains below a mark Сhf0,9600. The nearest support Chf0,9550. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9500. The nearest resistance Chf0,9640. Above is located Chf0.9665.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5630/50 (Dec 17 high, 50,0% FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5350)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5565 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5350)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5475 (Dec 24 high)
Current price: $1.5426
Support 1 : $1.5350 (Dec 22 low)
Support 2 : $1.5300 (low of September)
Support 3 : $1.5120 (Jul 21 low)

Comments: the tech essentially hasn't changed. The nearest resistance - $1,5475. Above growth is possible to $1,5565. The nearest support - $1,5350. Below decrease is possible to $1.5300.

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 2: $ 1.3360 (Dec 17 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3200 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3140 (resistance line from Dec 21)
Current price: $1.3119
Support 1 : $1.3070/50 (around of Dec  21-27 low)
Support 2 : $1.2970 (low of December and November)

Support 3 : $1.2790 (61.8 % FIBO $1,1870-$ 1,4285)

Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest resistance - $1,3140. Above growth is possible to $1,3200. The nearest support - $1,3070/50. Below decrease is possible to $1.2970.

Schedule for today, Monday, Dec'22'2010:

05:00     Japan     Housing starts (November) Y/Y         6.4%
05:00     Japan     Construction orders (November) Y/Y         -5.6%
23:30     Japan     Nationwide CPI (November)         0.4%
23:30     Japan     Nationwide CPI (November) Y/Y         0.2%
23:30     Japan     Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (November) Y/Y         -0.6%
23:30     Japan     Tokyo-area CPI (December)         -0.3%
23:30     Japan     Tokyo-area CPI (December) Y/Y         0.2%
23:30     Japan     Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (December) Y/Y         -0.5%
23:30     Japan     Unemployment (November)         5.1%
23:30     Japan     Household spending (November) real Y/Y     -0.4%
23:50     Japan     Retail sales (November) Y/Y    -0.2%
23:50     Japan     Industrial output (November) preliminary         -2.0%
23:50     Japan     Industrial output (November) preliminary Y/Y         4.3%

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