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27.07.2011
19:21
Greece: S&P's David Beers about restructuring of Greek debt

 

  • A new and bigger restructuring of Greek debt is likely within the next two years
  • A further downgrade of Greece's sovereign debt rating was "pretty certain."
  • The timetable for a new restructuring is "partly in the hands of Greek politics"
  • A second restructuring likely will be "looked at over the next couple of years."
19:01
UK: BOE about economy of UK

BOE MPC Member David Miles said:

  • Risk UK could slip back into recession
  • Not denying "There is a problem with inflation"
  • UK depression likely longest since first world war
  • Confidence is low, UK recovery fragile
18:37
US dollar slightly declined after Beige Book' results. But tFed report seen to be mostly in-line with expectations and as market remains debt ceiling-fixated.
18:21
US data: Beige book prepared for the Aug 9 FOMC:

This data were summarized at Philly Fed based on info gathered before July 15.

  • "Economic activity continued to grow; however, the pace has moderated in many Districts."
  • Six nearest Eastern seaboard dists reported a slowdown; Atlanta and Richmond were unch; 4 Dists continued to grow modestly. Prior book had 4 slower, 7 steady, 1 faster.
  • Consumer spending increased overall, with modest growth of nonauto sales.
  • Commodities pressures continued to squeeze retail margins.
  • Auto inventories remain lean due to Japanese disruptions.
  • Tourism season has started off strong.
  • Nonfinl services improved.
  • Res real estate was little chgd.
  • Drought/floods hurt farms.
  • Labor mkt remained soft.
  • Mfg expanded overall.
  • Mixed reports on loan demand, but credit conds changed little.
18:06
US focus: Dollar begins to bounce back

The dollar begins to rebound after its drop to the 11-week low versus a busket of currencies after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said it’s time Republicans “face facts” and agree on a compromise plan. But prolonged standoff in Washington over hiking the U.S. debt ceiling continued.
The euro goes lower against the dollar after Standard & Poor’s lowered Greece’s credit rating to CC from CCC with negative outlook. The downgrade of Greece by 2 notches takes it to the same level as Moody's Ca rating (developing outlook). Fitch Ratings last downgraded Greece 3 notches on July 3 to CCC from B+ and removed it from Rating Watch Negative, as it has been since May 20.
The Australian dollar declines versus the dollar. Today it hit a fresh all-time high versus the dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia  reported about better-than-expected rise of consumer price index inflation in the second quarter, focusing the market’s attention back on the interest rates.
The New Zealand dollar also falls from area of today’s record high amid reported advance in business confidance in July.
Both reports have renewed speculation that the central banks may tighten their monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its interest rate decision tomorrow. Currently the main interest rate of Australia is at 4.75% and New Zealand’ is at 2.5%. Last month New Zealand central bank governor Alan Bollard hinted at a possible increase of the rate by 25 basis points in December.
The loonie plummetes against the dollar. Yesterday it hit the highest level over the last three years
Japan yen also moves down after reports from US.

17:08
GREECE: S&P downgraded Greece To 'CC' from 'CCC'; Outlook negative
16:07
The gold keeps rising

Currently the gold is at $1622 per troy ounce (+0.19%). Today the gold showed a fresh all-time high at 1.628.80. The precious metal soars as investors sought to protect their wealth against the possibility of a U.S. default that may come as soon as next week amid a standoff over the country’s $14.3 trillion debt limit.

15:20
US: Rep. Boehner is expected to speak later on tv, but it's doubtful he will announce a final budget deal. He said to be meeting with other Republicans currently.
15:07
US: Fed and other regulators ordered RBS to improve oversight of US operations to comply with anti-money laundering and OFAC laws.
14:51
Goldman about Fed's Beige Book (today at 18:00 GMT)
  • economic activity continued to expand at a sluggish rate between early June and July (the period covered by the report).
  • Beige Book may provide useful information on any remaining supply chain disruptions in the auto industry.
  • Beige Book may signs whether hiring has picked up following June's disappointing jobs report.
14:48
Goldman about Fed's Beige Book (today at 18:00 GMT)

 

  • conomic activity continued to expand at a sluggish rate between early June and July (the period covered by the report).
  • Beige Book may provide useful information on any remaining supply chain disruptions in the auto industry.
  • Beige Book may signs whether hiring has picked up following June's disappointing jobs report.
14:38
US: Crude stocks +2.3m to 354.0m bbl.
14:34
Dow -84.73 at 12416.57, Nasdaq -34.37 at 2805.59, S&P -12.22 at 1319.72

The blue chips remain under pressure with the Nasdaq paces today's decline with a loss of 1.2%. The S&P and Dow are faring a little better, posting respective declines of 0.9% and 0.7%.
Shares of Amazon (AMZN 226.30, +12.12) are higher by 6.0% to trade at an all-time high after reporting better than expected earnings. The company announced earnings per share of $0.41 versus the median estimate of $0.34 and saw revenues rise 50.8% YoY to $9.91 billion (median $9.37 billion).

14:18
EUR/GBP refreshed lows

EUR/GBP refreshed earlier lows and continue to trade under pressure. Next support/demand seen in place between stg0.8800/0.8795, with stops
between stg0.8795/90. A break here exposes stg0.8765/60.

14:03
CORPORATE NEWS: Boeing issued strong report

Today the Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) reported its Q2 earnings with net income of $0.9B, or $1.25 p/share, on revenue of $16.5B. Earnings came higher than expected with the median was for $0.97 p/share.

13:48
Option expires for 14:00 GMT NY cut

EUR/USD $1.4300
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.30, Y79.30
EUR/JPY Y113.50, Y113.75
GBP/USD $1.6460
EUR/GBP stg0.8865
USD/CHF Chf0.8150, Chf0.8200
AUD/USD $1.0960, $1.0850
USD/NZD $0.8600

13:22
Before the bell: Wall Street poised for mixed open

U.S. stocks futures poise for a mix open Wednesday, as lawmakers made little progress toward raising the debt ceiling, with less than one week to go before the nation's borrowing limit must be lifted.
Late Tuesday, House Speaker John Boehner said he will rewrite his debt ceiling legislation, after the Congressional Budget Office said the bill would reduce deficits by only $851 billion over 10 years.
Tim Speiss, a partner at EisnerAmper, said the debt issue will be the primary focus for investors throughout the day.
"We don't know yet where that is going to end up," Speiss said. "The whole matter is preposterous and is causing significant trauma around the world and in the U.S."

Economy: The Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders dropped unexpectedly in June. Orders fell 2.1%, while the economists expected an increase of 0.5% in June.
The Federal Reserve will issue its Beige Book after the open bell.
Companies: Dow industrials component Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share much higher the expectations, while it raised its outlook for the rest of the year. The company made $1.25 per share, topping expectations of 98 cents a share. Shares gained 3.7% in premarket trading.
Dow Chemical (DOW, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 84 cents per share on sales of $16 billion, topping analyst estimates. Shares were up a little more than 1% in premarket trading.
Dunkin' Donuts goes public on Wednesday after shares priced at $19, above their price range of $16 to $18.
Glass maker Corning (GLW, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of 47 cents, while net sales topped $2 billion. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.
After the close of trade Tuesday, Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) reported that its net income in the second quarter fell to $191 million, or 41 cents a share. Despite the profit drop, the online retailer's results surpassed forecasts. Shares rose 6% in premarket trading.
After the closing bell, credit card processing company Visa (V, Fortune 500) will report its results.

12:49
EUR/USD remains under pressure after tested lows on $1.4439. But trading is tight right now with bids ahead of $1.4420/25.
12:33
US: June durable goods orders ex defense orders -1.8%
12:31
US: June durable goods orders ex transport +0.1%
12:31
US: June durable goods orders -2.1%
12:20
EU session review: Dollar falls to record versus Aussie and Kiwi on debt talks

Data released:
06:00     Germany     Import prices (June)    -0.6%    0.0%    -0.6%
06:00     Germany     Import prices (June) Y/Y    6.5%    7.7%    8.1%
06:00     Germany     Import prices excluding oil (June) Y/Y    4.0%    -    5.1%
08:00     EU(17)     M3 money supply (June) adjusted Y/Y    2.1%    2.4%    2.4%
08:00     EU(17)     M3 money supply (3 months to June) adjusted Y/Y    2.2%    2.3%    2.2%
08:00     Italy     Business confidence (June)    98.5    99.0    100.5
10:00     UK     CBI industrial order books balance (July)    -10%    -3%    1%
10:00     UK     CBI industrial output balance (July)    6%    -    13%

The dollar collapced to record lows against the Australian and New Zealand currencies as President Barack Obama and lawmakers struggled to prevent a default.
The Obama administration threatened a veto of House Speaker John Boehner’s two-step plan to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling and cut $3 trillion in expenditure. A vote on the measure had been scheduled for today and was postponed until tomorrow.
Standard & Poor’s reiterated on July 21 that the chance of a downgrade is 50 percent in the next three months and said it may cut the nation as soon as August.
“Looking for catalysts to sell the dollar is no problem at all,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co.. “If politicians fail to reach an agreement, dollar selling will accelerate. Even if they do agree, spending cuts will slow the U.S. economy.”

EUR/USD remains under pressure, falling from overnight highs on $1.4530 initially to support at $1.4470 and then - to $1.4440.

GBP/USD fell after the dissapopinting CBI report to below $1.6400. Rate posed lows on $1.6355.


USD/JPY continues to recover after it fell to Y77.60. Rate printed session highs on Y77.91.

US data starts at 1230GMT by Durable Goods Orders data. Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.5% in June after the surge in May. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT. 
At 1800GMT, the Fed's Beige Book will provide anecdotal evidence of conditions in the US economy for June through mid-July.

 

 

12:00
GERMANY: Jul prel HICP +0.5% m/m, +2.6% y/y
Jul prel CPI +0.4% m/m, +2.4% y/y
11:46
GBP/USD fell under $1.6370 after triggered stops to place lows around $1.6355. Next support/demand seen placed between $1.6350/40.
11:13
EUR/USD tested bids on $1.4460/55 before recovered to current $1.4472. Demand remains at $1.4450 with larger stops reported through $1.4450/45.
10:55
CORPORATE NEWS: Q2 reports for today...

A lot of names are going to report earnings on Wednesday, including WellPoint, Inc. (WLP), Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), NASDAQ Omx Group (NDAQ), Moody's Corp. (MCO), Boeing Co. (BA), ConocoPhillips (COP).

10:30
EUR/USD extends lows to $1.4462, challenging currently support at $1.4460/50, with stops mixed in below $1.4455.More stops noted below $1.4440.
10:01
UK CBI Monthly Trends: Jul total orders -10%
09:31
SWISS: KOF Jul leading indicator 2.04
09:14
DIW confirms forecast for German 2Q GDP growth of 0.4% q/q. Expects 3Q GDP growth of 0.5% q/q
09:04
FTSE 5,914 -16.08 -0.27%, CAC 3,766 -21.40 -0.56%, DAX 7,326 -23.13 -0.31%
08:30
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4300
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.30, Y79.30
EUR/JPY Y113.50, Y113.75
GBP/USD $1.6460
EUR/GBP stg0.8865
USD/CHF Chf0.8150, Chf0.8200
AUD/USD $1.0960, $1.0850
USD/NZD $0.8600


08:20
Gold reach new historical high at $1625.80. Currently gold at $1624.20 (+0.5%)
08:02
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei  10,047 -50.53 -0.50%

Hang Seng Closed 22,547 -24.81 -0.11% 
S&P/ASX  4,537 -35.93 -0.79% 
Shanghai Composite  2,723 +20.47 +0.76% 

07:38
Asian session: Australia’s dollar climbed

Data:
01:00 New Zealand Business Confidence (Jul) 47.6 46.5 
01:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2) 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 
01:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9% 0.7% 1.6%

The dollar weakened against most of its major peers as President Barack Obama and Congress remained at odds overs plans to raise the U.S. debt limit and prevent a default and credit-rating downgrade.
The greenback touched a record low against New Zealand’s dollar before a U.S. report forecast to show demand for durable goods grew at a slower pace in June. 
Australia’s dollar climbed to an all-time high after data showed inflation accelerated. 
The yen reached the strongest level in four months versus the dollar, stoking speculation Japan’s authorities will take steps to weaken the currency to protect exporters.
Traders are betting the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its key rate by 20 basis points in the next 12 months, compared with a decrease of 55 basis points expected as of July 18, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps.

EUR/USD: on asian session the pair was at $1.4490-$ 1.4535. 
GBP/USD: on asian session the pair was at $1.6400-$ 1.6435.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in  Y77.70 area.

German import prices for June is due at 12:00 GMT. 
UK data includes the 1000GMT release of the latest CBI Industrial trends data. The June CBI industrial trends survey appeared robust, with 
US data starts at 1230GMT by Durable Goods Orders data. Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.5% in June after the surge in May. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT. 
At 1800GMT, the Fed's Beige Book will provide anecdotal evidence of conditions in the US economy for June through mid-July. 


06:57
STOCKS: Tuesday's review

Majors close:
Nikkei  +47.71  (+0.47%)  10,098        
Topix      +4.29  (+0.50%)   866.20        
DAX      +4.91  (+0.07%)  7,349
CAC      -25.09  (-0.66%)  3,788    
FTSE-100   +4.47  (+0.08%)  5,930        
Dow  -91.50  (-0.73%)  12,501    
Nasdaq  -2.84  (-0.10%)   2,839.96    
S&P500  -5.49  (-0.41%)  1,332                
Oil  -0.05  $99.50  (-0.09)  -0.09%    
10-Years  2.95%     -0.05    


Most Asian markets climbed on Tuesday on optimism about U.S. lawmakers would be able to reach an agreement to raise the nation’s debt ceiling before the looming Aug. 2 deadline.
The day’s broad regional gains came even after U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner gave back-to-back speeches which indicated little progress toward a deal.
Indian stocks were a notable exception, taking a tumble after the central bank stunned markets by raising interest rates by a higher-than-expected half-percentage-point.
The Sensex  lost 1.87%.
Financial stocks in Asia were broadly higher, recouping some of their losses from the previous session. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. rose 1.8% in Tokyo, Macquarie Group Ltd. climbed 1.5% in Sydney, and Shinhan Financial Group Co. advanced 2.5% in Seoul.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index  rose by 1.25% to 22,572.08;
South Korea’s Kospi gained by 0.66% to 2,168.70;
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced by 0.95% to 4,573.3;
Taiwan's Taiex added 1.3% to 8,794.24;
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average ended the session higher by 0.48% at 10,097.72.
China’s Shanghai Composite rose by 0.53% at 2,703.03 followed Monday’s 3% tumble.

On Tuesday the major European markets closed the day mixed.
Oil and gas stocks were the main focus of attention in London Tuesday, as shares in BP PLC dropped after the firm missed earnings expectations, while BG Group PLC rallied on strong results.
Also the data on UK GDP was published on Tuesday. The British economy expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter, down from 0.5% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics said today. GDP would have grown by 0.7% without special factors such as Japan’s earthquake, an extra holiday for the royal wedding, and unusually warm weather in April, the statistics office said.
BG Group led the FTSE index with a gain of 4.3% as higher oil and gas prices, coupled with lower exploration costs, helped its second-quarter profit roughly double.
In contrast, shares in BP were among the biggest fallers on the main market and dropped by 2.6% becouse of lower production in the quarter left its earnings short of market expectations.
Pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline PLC rose by 0.7% after reporting second-quarter results in line with expectations and saying it will achieve more cost savings than previously expected.
Among other movers, Anglo American PLC gained by 1.2%. The group owns a 45% stake in diamond group De Beers SA, which said Tuesday that first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $666 million from $304 million as diamond prices jumped around 35%.
Fashion firm Burberry Group PLC dropped 3.2% as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland downgraded the company to hold from buy.

U.S. stocks struggled to advance late Tuesday, as several disappointing corporate earnings and ongoing worries over the U.S. debt ceiling weighed on investor sentiment.
The Dow was dragged lower by industrial conglomerate 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), whose shares sank 5%, after the company's quarterly results missed some analysts' expectations.
Despite beating expectations for quarterly earnings, shares of several companies fell - such Netflix (NFLX), UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) and Ford (F, Fortune 500) - as investors remain concerned on companies' outlooks.
Up until late Tuesday, investors were torn between two forces: an earnings season that has been generally positive, and concerns tied to the continuing battle over the United States' debt ceiling. Of the S&P 500 companies who have reported their quarterly results so far -- 75% have beaten expectations, according to data by Thomson Reuters.
Economy: New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 312,000, according to a report from the Commerce Department. The data was slightly worse than the 325,000 units economists had predicted.
The Conference Board said consumer confidence rose to a reading of 59.5 in July, up from 57.6 in June. Economists had expected consumer confidence to slide to 55.3.
Companies: Netflix (NFLX) shares sank 10% on Tuesday, making it the worst performer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The video rental company spent much of its Monday earnings release discussing problems -- namely, a recent price hike that launched thousands of online complaints.
British oil company BP (BP) reported a profit of $5.6 billion -- a stark contrast to last year's second-quarter loss of $17.2 billion, when the company was struggling with the Gulf oil spill. Despite its profitable rebound, shares slid 1.5%.
Ford (F, Fortune 500) reported better than expected quarterly earnings of $2.4 billion, as sales climbed 13% to $35.5 billion. However, shares for the auto giant fell 2% in afternoon trading.

06:31
FOREX: Tuesday's review

Tuesday the dollar significantly weakened against a basket of rival currencies on concerns about a lack of agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. The dollar fell as US President Barack Obama said the U.S. may experience a “deep economic crisis” if leaders fail to reach a compromise on spending cuts and the nation defaults.
If the debt ceiling isn’t raised from the current $14.3 trillion by August 2, the country would face technical default.
The Swiss franc reached a new record high versus the dollar on demand for safety.
The pound rallied from a two-week low against the euro after the U.K. economy expanded for a second quarter.
The British economy expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter, down from 0.5% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics said today. GDP would have grown by 0.7% without special factors such as Japan’s earthquake, an extra holiday for the royal wedding, and unusually warm weather in April, the statistics office said.
Gains in the yen were limited on speculation Japanese officials will intervene to weaken the currency.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said currency moves have been one-sided and he will continue to watch the yen closely. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday that the yen’s strength could hurt the economy and the central bank is ready to take appropriate action as needed.

EUR/USD initially fell from the highs around $1.4523 to lows on $1.4450. After some consolidation rate recovered to $1.4520/25.

GBP/USD rose after the UK GDP report. Rate managed to break above the resistance at $1.6400/05 and tested earlier highs on $1.6426.

USD/JPY printed lows on Y77.81 before recovered to Y78.01.

Scheduled European data starts at 0600GMT with German import prices for June, while at 0800GMT, the ECB publishes M3 money supply for 
June.

UK data includes the 1000GMT release of the latest CBI Industrial trends data. The June CBI industrial trends survey appeared robust, with 

US data starts at 1230GMT by Durable Goods Orders data. Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.5% in June after the surge in May. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT.
At 1800GMT, the Fed's Beige Book will provide anecdotal evidence of conditions in the US economy for June through mid-July.

06:19
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6550 (May 31 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6470 (Jun 7 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6440 (Jun 14 high, session high)
Current price: $1.6431
Support 1 : $1.6400 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6370 (38.2 % FIBO $1.6260-$ 1.6430)
Support 3 : $1.6340 (61.8 % FIBO $1.6260-$ 1.6430, Jul 21 low)

Comments: the pair holds at area of the reached high. The nearest immediate resistance - $1.6440. Abvoe growth is possible to $1.6470. The immediate support - $1.6400. Below decrease is possible to $1.6370. 

06:13
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4700 (high of June)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of July)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4540 (session high)
Current price: $1.4514
Support 1 : $1.4490 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4440/50 (Jul 21-22 low, low of american session on Jul 26)
Support 3 : $1.4355 (Jul 26 low)
Comments: the pair holds at area of reached high. The immediate support - $1.4490. Below losses are possible to $1.4440/50. The immediate resistance - $1.4540. Above growth is possible to $1.4580. 

05:21
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Jul'27'2011:

01:00 New Zealand Business Confidence (Jul) 47.6 46.5 01:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2) 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 
01:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9% 0.7% 1.6%

10:00 UK CBI industrial order books balance (July) -3% 1%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders (June) 0.3% 2.1%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding transportation (June) - 0.6%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding defence (June) - 1.9%
12:35 Germany CPI (July) preliminary 0.2% 0.1%
12:35 Germany CPI (July) preliminary Y/Y 2.2% 2.3%
12:35 Germany HICP (July) preliminary Y/Y 2.3% 2.4%
18:00 USA Fed Beige book  
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ meeting announcement 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 Japan Retail sales (June) Y/Y -0.4% -1.3%

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