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27.04.2011
19:22
FED: Bernanke Q&A

 

  • US Q1 GDP will be 'relatively weak' and slowing;
  • asked about extend pd and withdrawing stimulus, said US is in moderate recovery;
  • will watch labor mkt;
  • will look at infl;
  • expects infl to move down to a more normal level;
  • extended pd suggests a couple of meetings at least;
  • US$ fluctuates, some moves due to safe haven effect;
  • higher gas prices hurt lot of people, drain purchasing power;
  • jobs have made progress;
  • Fed is concerned abt medium term infl expectations;
  • QE2 buys to end without tapering; mkts well anticipate this and so it should have small effects.


 

18:50
FED: Bernanke Q&A
  • US Q1 GDP will be 'relatively weak' and slowing;
  • asked about extend pd and withdrawing stimulus, said US is in moderate recovery;
  • will watch labor mkt;
  • will look at infl;
  • expects infl to move down to a more normal level;
  • extended pd suggests a couple of meetings at least;
  • US$ fluctuates, some moves due to safe haven effect;
  • higher gas prices hurt lot of people, drain purchasing power;
  • jobs have made progress;
  • Fed is concerned abt medium term infl expectations;
  • QE2 buys to end without tapering; mkts well anticipate this and so it should have small effects.




18:26
FED, Bernanke:
  • his goal in statement will be to reflect the consensus of the committee, but his remarks will be his own responsibility;
  • attempting to get zero inflation not desirable;
  • housing still depressed;
  • labor mkt improving gradually.
18:18
FOMC's new estimates:
  • real GDP at +3.1-3.3% vs +3.4-3.9% in Jan;
  • 2012 real GDP +3.5-4.2% (vs +3.5-4.4%);
  • unemployment rate 8.4-8.7% in '11 (was 8.8-9.0%) and 7.6-7.9% in '12 (was 7.6-8.1%);
  • 2013 growth lowered.
18:02
Dow +43.59 at 12639.04, Nasdaq +6.94 at 2854.48, S&P +1.89 at 1349.13

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near their best levels since this morning, but the Dow is at a session high amid leadership from General Electric (GE 20.73, +0.63), which has climbed more than 3% without any clear headline or catalyst to account for its strength.

17:46
HFE on FOMC's statement

HFE says FOMC statement shows "No changes to the key outcomes of the meeting, so no surprises there, but there are changes to the statement. The Fed says it 'is prepared to adjust its holdings as needed". HFE says odds of QE3 are tiny.

17:20
FTN on FOMC's statement

Economist Chris Low at FTN says significant change in FOMC language was about describing the securities portfolio. "In March, the FOMC said, 'will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information.' Today it said, 'will regularly review the size
and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information.' This change may simply reflect the fact that QE2 will essentially be over by the time the Fed meets again on June 22. But it can also be read as the start of a conversation about possible asset sales in the future."

17:05
US focus: Dollar declines versus Euro after Fed

The dollar dropped against the euro for a seventh day after the Federal Reserve said a pickup in inflation is likely to be temporary as it decided to finish $600 billion of bond purchases on schedule in June.
The greenback earlier touched its lowest level since December 2009 on speculation the Fed will keep borrowing costs low.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is due today to give his first press conference after a policy meeting.
“The Fed is staying the course,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co.. “This should not stand in the way of further dollar weakness. It’s obviously no change to the Treasury buying program, as was expected.”
The central bank held its target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25%, as forecast. The benchmark has stayed at that level since December 2008.
“The economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in its statement after a two-day meeting.
The Fed announced in November it would buy $600 billion in Treasuries in an effort to stabilize the U.S. economy under the second round of quantitative easing.
Consumer prices increased in March for a ninth consecutive month, led by gains in food and fuel costs, according to the Labor Department. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped last month to a two-year low of 8.8%.
The economy grew at a 2% annual pace in the first quarter after a 3.1% rate of expansion in the last three months of 2010, according to the median forecast of economists before tomorrow’s report from the Commerce Department.
The outlook on Japan’s AA- local-currency government debt rating, the fourth-highest grade, was lowered to “negative” from “stable,” S&P said today, citing costs for rebuilding after the nation’s record earthquake on March 11.
The yen has weakened 5.2% over the past month. The dollar has declined 4%.
The Australian dollar touched a record on speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise borrowing costs to contain accelerating inflation.

16:54
FED-early FOMC stmt:

No change in $600b QE2 thru June or rates, keeps 'extended pd'. Says labor mkt 'improving gradually' but drops econ on 'firmer footing' - now says recovery 'proceeding at mod pace.' Again mentions commods/oil but not Japan; more talk on inflation ('has picked up'). Will pay close attention to infl/expectations. Vote 10-0.

16:38
Dow +19.98 at 12615.35, Nasdaq +0.91 at 2848.45, S&P -0.88 at 1346.45

Treasuries have been stuck in the red all session. Results from today's auction of 5-year Notes didn't help their position.
Weakness among materials stocks is widespread, but steel stocks are being hit with some of the hardest selling. In turn, AK Steel (AKS 16.43, -0.53) has handed back some of the gain that it had made in the prior session. Meanwhile, U.S. Steel (48.21, -1.51) has extended its prior session slide to set a new multi-month low. Following an earnings miss yesterday, shares of X were downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs.


16:30
FOMC left rate unch as expected (0-0.25%)
15:16
Pierpont on US data

Pierpont economist Steve Stanley says "Durable goods orders rose back in March after a disappointing Feb." He ests core ordes +2.4%, and says "much of the February weakness was revised away."

15:01
EUR/JPY probed Y121.00

EUR/JPY challenged Y121.00 where pffers were mentioned. Cross rose after flushing stops atop Y120.80. Further offers eyed at Y121.40/50.

14:51
OIL: Skids lower after large inventory build, trades to $111.05, down $1.15 now.
14:34
US: Apr 22 wk EIA oil data: crude stocks +6.156m to 363.1m bbl.
14:25
JPM says on durables "the inventories data was stronger than anticipated and is leading us to revise up our call for tomorrow's Q1 GDP report to 1.4%, from our previous estimate of 1.3%."
14:00
Dow +5.30 at 12600.67, Nasdaq +3.96 at 2851.50, S&P +0.71 at 1347.95

The major equity averages are near the neutral line in the first few minutes of trade. Energy stocks have been a drag; they are down 0.5% following an earnings miss from heavyweight ConocoPhillips (COP 79.12, -2.09). However, better-than-expected quarterly results have helped Baker Hughes (BHI 77.41, +3.35) open with a strong gain that actually put the stock at its best level in more than two years.

13:39
GBP/USD keeps positive mood

Seen meeting supply around the $1.6570 area, the level corresponding to a 76.4% retrace of the move down from post GDP highs of $1.6582 to $1.6532. If rate can clear $1.6570 exposes that earlier high, with stronger resistance noted between $1.6595/00 ($1.6600 2011 high Apr 21).

13:08
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were headed for early gains Wednesday, as investors sort through the latest corporate results ahead of a highly anticipated press conference at the Federal Reserve.


U.S. stocks finished at their highest levels in three years Tuesday, as investors cheered another batch of solid earnings and a better-than-expected report on consumer confidence.
Investors will turn their attention to tight-lipped Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's first of what will become four regular press conferences a year.
The speech and question-and-answer session will follow the Fed's two-day meeting on monetary policy.
While the Fed's Open Market Committee is not expected to raise interest rates, investors are hoping to get some sense of how soon the central bank could move to tighten its easy money stance.
Companies: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) said it will buy Synthes, a Swiss maker of orthopedic devices, for $21.3 billion. Shares of J&J eased about 1% before the opening bell.
Shares of Dow component Boeing (BA) edged higher in premaket trading after the aeronautics company said it earned 78 cents per share in the first quarter, up from 70 cents a year earlier. Analysts were expecting 70 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters.
BP (BP) reported first-quarter earnings of $1.75 per U.S.-listed share, down from $1.79 per share in the year-ago quarter. The British oil company was expected to report $1.82 per share.
Amazon.com (AMZN)'s stock fell 2% in premarket trading after the online merchant reported first-quarter earnings that fell by one-third compared to a year earlier and sharply missed Wall Street forecasts.
After the close, Starbucks (SBUX) reports results. The coffee retailer is expected to earn 34 cents a share.
World markets:

Oil for May delivery gained 44 cents to $112.66 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery rose $3.10 to $1,506.70 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury held steady, with the yield unchanged from Tuesday at 3.32%.

12:31
US: Mar durable goods orders +2.5%; ex transport +1.3%, ex defense +2.3%
12:04
European session:

The dollar fell to a 16-month low versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal it will keep interest rates low at today’s meeting to support the U.S. economy after its bond-buying program expires in June.
The Dollar Index dropped for a seventh day, the longest streak since December. The yen weakened against all of its major counterparts after Standard & Poor’s cut Japan’s sovereign- rating outlook to “negative.” The Australian dollar rose to a record after a report showed consumer prices climbed the most since 2006. The pound climbed against the dollar after a report showed Britain’s economy rebounded in the first quarter.
“There is not an awful lot of scope for the Federal Reserve to do anything else but to keep its policy loose for a while,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “I don’t think the Fed will feel the need to signal a shift in policy. In an environment where interest-rate differentials are key drivers of the market, the dollar is not going to do well against higher-yielding currencies, including the euro.”

EUR/USD: posted session high at $1.4710, before consolidated within $1.4700-$1.4660.
GBP/USD: jumped up to $1.6580. before eased back to $1.6550
USD/JPY: reached Y82.30.


US Durable Goods Orders are expected at 12:30 GMT. FED interest rates will be announced at 18:15 GMT today. RBNZ interest rates will be announced at 20:00 GMT.
11:44
Pierpont Securities on FOMC outcome

Pierpont Securities says talk of QE exit will heat up later but for this wk "confirming the end of QE2 and getting through the first press conference without any hiccups will likely be considered a victory" by the FOMC. "Extended pd" should be kept and it's doubtful there will be dissents.

11:28
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4720, $1.4750, $1.4780/85
Bids: $1.4650, $1.4630/20, $1.4585/80, $1.4550

USD/JPY
Offers: Y82.40/50, Y82.90, Y83.00/10
Bids: Y81.80, Y81.50, Y81.20, Y81.00, Y80.70/50

11:27
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:
EUR/USD $1.4750, $1.4625, $1.4620, $1.4610, $1.4520, $1.4500

USD/JPY Y81.50 (large), Y81.80, Y82.00, Y82.05, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.05
EUR/JPY Y120.00, Y122.75
GBP/USD $1.6250
USD/CHF Chf0.8760
EUR/CHF Chf1.3000
AUD/USD $1.0650

10:28
GERMANY: Will decide together with France on ECB president
  • Next ECB pres must share German stability view;
  • Decision on Trichet successor to come in June;
  • To comment on possible ECB candidate 'in time';
  • Won't say if will back Draghi for ECB top job.
09:55
FTSE -0.11% 6,062, CAC +0.38% 4,061, DAX +0.55% 7,397
09:29
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4750, $1.4625, $1.4620, $1.4610, $1.4520, $1.4500
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.80, Y82.00, Y82.05, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.05
EUR/JPY Y120.00, Y122.75
GBP/USD $1.6250
EUR/CHF Chf1.3000
AUD/USD $1.0650

09:01
EMU DATA: February sa industry new orders +0.9% m/m, +21.3% y/y
08:40
GBP/USD:

Spikes up from around $1.6448 to $1.6519 on release of as forecast UK GDP data, coming in at 0.5%, with pre release whispers suggesting a softer 0.3% release. 

08:31
UK DATA: Q1 Preliminary GDP up to +0.5% q/q; +1.8% y/y
08:09
Asian stocks close:

Hang Seng -0.48% 23,892.84
Shanghai Composite -0.46% 2,925.41
Nikkei +1.39%  9691.84

08:07
Asian session: The Australian dollar rose

Data:
01:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q1) 3.3%
01:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 1.6%

The dollar fell to a 16-month low versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will consider further easing measures to support the U.S. economy after its bond-buying program expires in June.
The yen weakened against most of its major counterparts after Standard & Poor’s cut Japan’s sovereign-rating outlook to “negative” from “stable.” 
The Australian dollar rose to a record after a government report showed consumer prices climbed the most since 2006, spurring investors to add bets that the central bank will raise borrowing costs.
The Dollar Index touched the lowest level in more than two years as the central bank began a two-day policy meeting that will be followed by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s first press conference after a policy decision.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,4710 then decreased.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,6520. Later the rate receded in around $1,6470.
USD/JPY: the pair grown in around Y81,80.

Preliminary GDP estimate from the U.K. - the major report ot the europ;ean session on Wednesday (08:30 GMT).
At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone industrial new orders data is due. 
US Durable Goods Orders are expected at 12:30 GMT.
FED interest rates will be announced at 18:15 GMT today.
RBNZ interest rates will be announced at 20:00 GMT.

08:04
Forex: Tuesday's review

 

The dollar dropped for a sixth day against the euro, matching the longest losing streak since May 2009, on speculation the Federal Reserve will consider measures to keep yields low to support the U.S. economy.
The greenback fell to almost the lowest level since August 2008 against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as a report showed home prices dropped by the most in more than a year. The central bank begins a two-day policy meeting that will be followed by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s first post policy decision press conference.
The U.S. central bank will leave its target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25 percent at its two-day meeting. The Fed may say it plans to complete the purchase of $600 billion of Treasuries by June.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.3 percent in February from a year earlier in the biggest decrease since November 2009.
The euro rose earlier against the yen and dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated policy makers stand ready to raise interest rates to counter inflation expectations.
EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in around $1,4650.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6430-$ 1,6530.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y81,60.


Preliminary GDP estimate from the U.K. - the major report ot the europ;ean session on Wednesday (08:30 GMT).

At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone industrial new orders data is due. 
US Durable Goods Orders are expected at 12:30 GMT.
FED interest rates will be announced at 18:15 GMT today.
RBNZ interest rates will be announced at 20:00 GMT.

 

06:55
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Japanese stocks fell the most in a week after Nintendo Co. and Nidec Corp. (6594) reported earnings that missed estimates and Standard & Poor’s cut its rating outlook on Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and other Japanese carmakers.
Nintendo, the world’s largest maker of video-game players, retreated 1.6 percent. Nidec, the No. 1 manufacturer of motors for hard-disk drives, slumped 2.1 percent. Toyota, the world’s biggest carmaker, dropped 2.4 percent after S&P reduced its credit rating outlook on the country’s automakers in the wake of last month’s earthquake and tsunami.
The yen’s appreciation also weighed on carmakers, as it reduces the outlook for earnings outside Japan.
European stocks climbed for a fourth day as better-than-estimated earnings from UBS AG (UBSN) outweighed a report that China tightened capital targets for its biggest banks.
UBS surged 3.9%, the most in more than two months as Switzerland’s largest lender attracted the most new money from wealthy customers since the end of 2007. Parmalat SpA (PLT) jumped 11 percent after Groupe Lactalis said it will bid for the rest of Italy’s biggest dairy company.
Micro Focus International Plc (MCRO) rallied 6.8 percent to 360.8 pence after the U.K. software company said it has received a preliminary takeover approach.
Michelin & Cie. led gains in auto-industry shares, surging 5.1 percent to 66.95 euros. The world’s second-largest tiremaker said first-quarter revenue rose 28 percent, led by surging demand for specialty tires to equip construction equipment and agricultural vehicles.
Smaller rival Pirelli & C. SpA advanced 4 percent to 7.03 euros.
Basic-resource companies limited gains as commodities snapped a four-day winning streak.
U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its highest level since June 2008, as companies from United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) to Ford Motor Co. (F) and 3M Co. (MMM) beat analysts’ profit estimates.
UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company and considered a proxy for economic growth, added 1.3 percent after also raising its earnings forecast. Ford, the second-largest U.S. automaker, gained 1.9 percent after reporting a 22 percent jump in profit. 3M, the maker of products including Scotch tape and Post-it Notes, rose 2 percent. AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS), the nation’s third-largest producer of the metal by 2010 volume, rallied 5.8 percent after posting an unexpected profit.
Before today, the S&P 500 had failed to surpass its 2011 high from Feb. 18 after closing within 1 percent of that level eight times in April. The S&P 500 fell as much as 6.4 percent from Feb. 18 through March 16 as Japan was struck by its strongest earthquake on record, straining the third-largest economy, and concern grew about budget deficits in European countries including Greece and Portugal.
The index is now up 7.2 percent from its 2011 low amid government stimulus measures and higher-than-estimated corporate profits. Earnings-per-share beat estimates at 79 percent of the 154 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since April 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Federal Reserve policy makers are holding two days of meetings beginning today, and will likely say they’ll complete a second round of scheduled bond purchases worth $600 billion through the end of June to help sustain the recovery. While companies including General Electric Co. (GE) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) are among those benefiting from gains in spending on equipment and software, households are feeling the pinch of higher food and fuel prices.

06:43
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.10 (Apr 20 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.40 (Apr 25 hihg) 
Resistance 1:Y81.85 (resistance line from Apr 13) 
Current price: Y81.62
Support 1:Y81.25 (session low)    
Support 2:Y80.70 (around of Mar 18-24 low)  
Support 3:Y79.80 (Mar 17 high)    
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Y81,60. The nearest support - Y81.25. Below losses are possible to Y80.70. The nearest resistance - Y81.85. Above growth is possible to Y82.40.

06:27
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8850 (resistance line from Apr 6)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8740 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8716
Support 1: Chf0.8670 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8600 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8500 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support - Chf0,8670. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8600. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8740. Above is located Chf0.8850.  

 

06:02
Germany: Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (May) 5.7
05:56
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6600 (Apr 21 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6550 (Apr 25 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6520 (session high)
Current price: $1.6497
Support 1 : $1.6470 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6430 (Apr 26 low, 38,2 % FIBO $1,6170-$ 1,6600)
Support 3 : $1.6380 (50.0 % FIBO $1,6170-$ 1,6600, Apr 21 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,6500. The nearest support $1.6470. Below is possible testings of area $1.6430. The nearest resistance - area $1.6520. Above growth is possible to $1.6550. 

05:50
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4870 (Dec 8'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4770 (Dec 11'2009 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4715 (session high)
Current price: $1.4684
Support 1 : $1.4650 (session low, Apr 21 high)
Support 2 : $1.4490 (Apr 26 low, 38,2 % FIBO $1,4155-$ 1,4715)
Support 3 : $1.4430 (50,0% FIBO $1,4155-$ 1,4715)
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - $1.4715. Above  growth is possibleto $1,4770. The nearest support $1,4650. Below losses  are possible to $1.4490.

05:25
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Apr 27 2011:

08:30 UK  GDP (Q1) preliminary 0.5% -0.5%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) preliminary Y/Y 1.7% 1.5%
10:00 EU(17) Industrial orders (March) 1.6% 0.1%
10:00 EU(17) Industrial orders (March) Y/Y - 20.9%
12:15 Germany CPI (April) preliminary 0.2% 0.5%
12:15 Germany CPI (April) preliminary Y/Y 2.3% 2.1%
12:15 Germany HICP (April) preliminary Y/Y 2.5% 2.3%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders (March) 2.1% -0.6 (-0.9)%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding transportation (March) 1.8% -0.6%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding defence (March) - 0.4%
16:00 France Unemployment (February) - -19.3K
18:15 USA FOMC meeting announcement 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25%
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ meeting announcement 2.50% 2.50%
23:01 UK Gfk consumer confidence (April) -27 -28
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (March) - -0.1%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (March) Y/Y - 0.0%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (March) Y/Y -0.2% -0.3%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (April) - 0.2%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (April) Y/Y - -0.3%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (April) Y/Y 0.2% -0.3%
23:30 Japan Unemployment (March) 4.7% 4.6%
23:30 Japan Household spending (March) real Y/Y -6.5% -0.2%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (March) preliminary -11.1% 1.8%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (March) preliminary Y/Y -8.5% 2.9%

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