CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-12-2024

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26.12.2024
23:56
Japan Large Retailer Sales climbed from previous -1% to 3% in November
23:51
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) down to -2.8% in November from previous 1.4%
23:51
Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 1.8% in November
23:50
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (1.7%) in November
23:50
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (-3.4%) in November: Actual (-2.3%)
23:34
Breaking: Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation rises to 3.0% YoY in December vs. 2.6% prior

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 3.0% YoY as compared to 2.6% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy came in at 2.4% in December vs. 2.2% in November.

Additionally, Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food rose 2.4% YoY in December against 2.5% expected and up from 2.2% in the prior month. 

Market reaction to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index

As of writing, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.13% on the day at 157.76.

Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

 

23:30
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2.4% (December) vs 2.2%
23:30
Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets forecasts (1.25) in November
23:30
Japan Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (2.5%) in November
23:30
Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3% (December) vs 2.6%
23:30
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) below forecasts (2.5%) in December: Actual (2.4%)
23:07
AUD/USD weakens to near 0.6200 amid thin trading AUDUSD
  • AUD/USD softens to around 0.6215 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
  • Fewer Fed rate cuts bets and Trump's policies continue to support the USD. 
  • RBA’s Meeting Minutes revealed the board had grown more confident about inflation, but risks persisted.

The AUD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.6215 during the early Asian session on Friday. The incoming Donald Trump administration is expected to boost growth and lift inflation, supporting the US Dollar (USD). The markets are likely to be quiet ahead of next week’s New Year holiday.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last week as expected, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more rate cuts now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation. Additionally, analysts expect that the potential new Trump tariff policies on trading partners could increase price pressures and slow the pace of rate reductions by the US central bank, which underpins the Greenback against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 219K in the week ending December 21. This reading followed the previous week's print of 220K and came in below the market consensus of 224K. 

On the Aussie front, the latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s monetary policy suggested the Australian central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward the target. Nonetheless, it’s premature to conclude the battle is won due to a recent pick-up in household spending and a tight labor market. Analysts expect the RBA to start cutting rates only by the second quarter of 2025 in a shallow easing cycle.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 

18:05
United States 7-Year Note Auction increased to 4.532% from previous 4.183%
16:32
United States 4-Week Bill Auction increased to 4.26% from previous 4.23%
13:30
United States Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.91M in December 13 from previous 1.874M
13:30
United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 219K, below expectations (224K) in December 20
13:30
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average climbed from previous 225.5K to 226.5K in December 20
13:00
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $618.2B to $609.8B
12:50
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock up to -3.2M in December 20 from previous -4.7M
11:34
India M3 Money Supply up to 10.7% in December 9 from previous 10%
09:30
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data

Most recent article: Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $29.60 per troy ounce, down 0.26% from the $29.68 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver prices have increased by 24.39% since the beginning of the year.

Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD
Troy Ounce 29.60
1 Gram 0.95

 

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 88.74 on Thursday, up from 88.18 on Wednesday.

 

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

09:00
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations declined to -20 in December from previous -12.4
05:00
Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (10%) in November: Actual (8.5%)
05:00
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) down to -10.2% in November from previous 44.6%
05:00
Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) down to -0.4% in November from previous 0.1%
04:36
India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 7,202.18 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 7,172.11 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 84,004.76 per tola from INR 83,654.07 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure Gold Price in INR
1 Gram 7,202.18
10 Grams 72,021.76
Tola 84,004.76
Troy Ounce 224,012.90

 

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 93.58 39130.43 0.24

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