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26.07.2011
19:46
Fed's Hoenig about US currency:
  • dollar will remain to be the world's reserve currency for some time;
  • monetary policy cannot manage the short run.
19:21
August gold futures set a new session high at 1,620 (+0.35%) amid US debt ceiling talks
19:10
EUR/USD showed a new session high

The rate reached a new session high $1.4525 and retreated to $1.4515. Bulls may move towards 1.4580. Immediate support remians at $1.4355.

18:42
Dow 12,540 -53 -0.42%, Nasdaq 2,848 +5 +0.18%, S&P 1,336 -1 -0.08%

S&P industry groups are trading mixed and mostly didn’t changed more than by 0.3%.
The led gainer is Technology sector (+0.7%) due to strong earnings reports and forecasts: Sanmina-SCI Corp. +22%, Lexmark International Inc.+17%, Sanmina-SCI Corp. And Broadcom Corp. +10%.
Conglomerats and Industrial Goods sustain the largest losses (-1.3% and -1.5% respectively)

18:28
USD/JPY reached a new session low

The pair showed the low at Y77.82 and then bounded back to the earlier support area at Y77.90. If the pressure holds, the rate may fall to Y77.10. Initial resistance remains at Y78.20. A further fall is curbed by speculation about possible intervention of the national bank of Japan.

17:37
US focus: Dollar suffer losses

Today the dollar significantly weakened against a basket of rival currencies on concerns about a lack of agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. The dollar fell as US President Barack Obama said the U.S. may experience a “deep economic crisis” if leaders fail to reach a compromise on spending cuts and the nation defaults.
If the debt ceiling isn’t raised from the current $14.3 trillion by August 2, the country would face technical default.
The Swiss franc reached a new record high versus the dollar on demand for safety.
The loonie moved against the dollar to highest level over the last three years.
The pound continue its growth after the U.K. economy expanded for a second quarter.
The British economy expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter, down from 0.5% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics said today. GDP would have grown by 0.7% without special factors such as Japan’s earthquake, an extra holiday for the royal wedding, and unusually warm weather in April, the statistics office said.

17:13
Oil soared as dollar weakened

Oil advanced as concerns about the US economy put pressure on the dollar, boosting the appeal of commodities, but countering concern that the crisis will hurt demand.
Currently September WTI Crude oil is at $100.27 per barrel (+1.08%).

16:35
Fitch Affirms The Netherlands at 'AAA'. Outlook Stable
16:27
Dow 12,539 -54 -0.43% Nasdaq 2,848 +5 +0.17% S&P 500 1,336 -1 -0.10%

U.S. stocks shed on debt ceiling debate, but are supported by a wave of corporate earnings: Broadcom +10%, Lexmark +20%.

16:01
European stocks close: FTSE +4 at 5,930, CAC -25 at 3,788, DAX +5 at 7,349
15:40
Nomura about US data

"Both weekly sales indices cooled in July  but record high temps in NE and clearances might have been reasons.  Weakening consumer confidence and high gasoline prices do not bode well for the back-to-school shopping season."

15:02
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4700 (high of June)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of July)

Resistance 1: $ 1.520 (session high)

Ccurrent price: $1.4490

Support 1 : $1.4440/50 (Jul 21-22 high, US sesseion high)

Support 2 : $1.4355 (session low)

Support 3 : $1.4320 (Jul 22-25 low)

Comments: the pair is near today’s highs. The immediate support - $1.4440/59 area. Below losses are possible to $1.4355. Currently the pair tests resistance at $1.520. Above growth is possible to $1.4580. 

14:27
US, Sen. Reid: Believe rating agancies to downgrade US rating if Boehner plan passes
14:01
US: July Conf Bd consumer confidence 59.5
14:00
US: June new home sales -1.0% to 312k
13:35
Option expires for 14:00 GMT NY cut

EUR/USD $1.4450, $1.4430, $1.4400, $1.4350
USD/JPY Y77.75, Y78.10, Y78.75
GBP/USD $1.6000
AUD/USD $1.0900, $1.1100
USD/CAD C$0.9540

13:22
Before the bell: All eyes on White House

U.S. stocks were poised for a flat open Tuesday after President Obama's warning on the risk of a potentially devastating default.
Stocks started the week in the red Monday.

Economy: The Conference Board's July consumer confidence report and the Commerce Department's new home sales report, will be out at 14:00 GMT.
Economists expect that consumer confidence fell slightly in July. New home sales for June are expected to remain roughly unchanged at an annual rate of 320,000 units.
Companies: Ford (F, Fortune 500) reported better than expected quarterly net income of $2.4 billion, down 7% from a year earlier. Sales climbed 13% to $35.5 billion. Shares gained 2% in premarket trading.
Before the opening bell, BP (BP) reported earnings of $5.6 billion - a stark contrast to last year's second-quarter loss of $17.2 billion, when the company was struggling with the Gulf oil spill.
Delivery company UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of $1.05, beating expectations by one cent.
3M (MMM, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of $1.60 per share, that in-line with forecasts. Shares dropped 3% in premarket trading.

12:49
EUR/USD holds higher

EUR/USD holds at $1.4481 and the dollar remains on the defensive amid US debt talks. Euro stalled around $1.4520, where offers lie. Bids back at $1.4450.

12:28
GBP/USD above $1.6400

GBP/USD trades above $1.6400 again, as continued squaring of shorts support the pound. Cable touched a high of $1.6414 after UK GDP data release, with the corrective pullback meeting support ahead of $1.6370. Offers remain in place from $1.6414 through to $1.6420 with stops above. Further offers noted between $1.6440/50.

11:56
FTSE 5,936 +11 +0.19%, CAC 3,797 -16 -0.43%, DAX 7,351 +6 +0.09%
11:54
EU session review: Dollar fell to record versus Franc

Data released:
06:45     France     Consumer confidence (July)    86    81    83
08:30     UK     GDP (Q2) preliminary    0.2%    0.1%    0.5%
08:30     UK     GDP (Q2) preliminary Y/Y     0.7%    0.7%    1.6%

The dollar fell as President Barack Obama said the U.S. may experience a “deep economic crisis” if leaders fail to reach a compromise on spending cuts and the nation defaults.
The U.S. currency slid below Y78 versus yen for the first time since March and fell to a record versus the Swiss franc as lawmakers struggled to reach an accord to raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by an Aug. 2 deadline.
“The uncertainty is a clear negative for the dollar across the board,” said Niels Christensen, chief currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB. “Until we have more news, I can’t see sentiment changing.”
Obama blamed the current stalemate on a group of Republicans in the House who are insisting on budget cuts and no tax increases. “If we stay on the current path, our growing debt could cost us jobs and do serious damage to the economy,” Obama said.
The pound rallied from a two-week low against the euro after the U.K. economy expanded for a second quarter.
The British economy expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter, down from 0.5% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics said today. GDP would have grown by 0.7% without special factors such as Japan’s earthquake, an extra holiday for the royal wedding, and unusually warm weather in April, the statistics office said.
“The market was positioned for a weak number, so this flicker of hope that the U.K. isn’t about to fall back into recession helped boost sentiment to sterling,” Kathleen Brooks at Forex.com.
Gains in the yen were limited on speculation Japanese officials will intervene to weaken the currency.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said currency moves have been one-sided and he will continue to watch the yen closely. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday that the yen’s strength could hurt the economy and the central bank is ready to take appropriate action as needed.

EUR/USD continues to hold within the narrow range. Rate earlier fell from highs on $1.4523 to the lows around $1.4462. Offers remain at $1.4520/25 with stops above.

GBP/USD recovers to current $1.6401.Resistance seen at $1.6400/05, a break to expose earlier highs at $1.6414. Offers
noted near highs, strengthening toward $1.6420.

USD/JPY printed session lows on Y77.85 before recovered to Y78.20. But rate failed to hold above and retreated to the figure.

US data start at  1400GMT by both New Home Sales as well as Consumer Confidence data and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

11:18
EUR/USD set stable
EUR/USD continues to hold within the narrow range - at $1.4479 currently. Rate earlier fell from highs on $1.4523 to the lows around $1.4462. Offers remain at $1.4520/25 with stops above.
10:46
AUD/USD triggered barrier interest to a session high $1.0955. Next level of resistance at $1.1012 (2 May high), a break here to open $1.1100.
10:32
EUR/GBP under pressure

EUR/GBP remains under pressure, holding at session lows on stg0.8824. Strong bids at stg0.8800/0.8795 with stops seen through stg0.8795/90.

10:18
GBP/USD recovers

GBP/USD recovers again. Rate edges to current $1.6401.Resistance seen at $1.6400/05, a break to expose earlier highs at $1.6414. Offers
noted near highs, strengthening toward $1.6420.

09:45
EUR/JPY holds tight

EUR/JPY is trading near the bottom of the Y112.99-31 EU session. Initial bids seen at Y112.90/80, ahead of Y112.66 (5 dayMA). Further demand placed between Y112.20/00. Resistance at Y113.50/60 (Y113.52 16 Jun low) ahead of Y113.66 (22 Jul high, Kijun line & 50% of July), a break to open Y114.05/10.

09:21
FTSE 5,922 -3.66 -0.06%, CAC 3,788 -25.07 -0.66%, DAX 7,331 -13.20 -0.18%
09:17
UK OSBORNE: "Positive news UK economy continuing to grow"
  • UK a safe haven because govt took tough decisions
  • Abandoning fiscal plan now would only risk growth
08:54
GBP/USD moving above react highs of $1.6410 with next resistance seen into $1.6420. A break here to allow for a move on to $1.6440/50.
08:30
UK DATA: Q2 GDP +0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y;
08:12
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei 10,098 +47.71 +0.47% 
Hang Seng 22,561 +267.34 +1.20% 
S&P/ASX  4,573 +42.98 +0.95% 
Shanghai Composite 2,703 +14.28 +0.53%

07:26
BOE WEALE: "Real danger UK could slip back into recession"
07:23
Asian session: The dollar fell

The dollar fell to a record low versus the Swiss franc as President Barack Obama said that the nation’s burgeoning debt threatens to do “serious” damage to the economy.

The dollar slid below 78 yen for the first time since March as Obama urged Congress to address future deficits while lawmakers struggle to reach an accord to raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by an Aug. 2 deadline. Gains in the yen were limited on speculation Japanese officials will intervene to weaken it. 
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, fell to 73.684 from 74.102. The index earlier reached 73.682, the lowest since June 8.

EUR/USD: on asian session the pair grown in $1.4480  area.
GBP/USD: the pair grown in $1.6340  area.
USD/JPY: the pair shown high at  Y78.70 area then back in area Y78.10. The session low established at  Y77.88.

UK data at 0830GMT includes the eagerly-awaited Q2 GDP data as well as the latest Index of Services. The release of Q2 GDP on will be one of the UK's highlight of the week. 
US data start at  1300 GMT with  the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, while is followed at 1400GMT by both New Home Sales as well as Consumer Confidence data and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

07:06
EUR/USD breaks above earlier high at $1.4510 extends to $1.4517

Offers placed toward $1.4520 ($1.4519 61.8% $1.4940/1.3837). Stops seen placed above $1.4520, which if triggered to open a move toward $1.4545/55.

06:59
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4450, $1.4430, $1.4400, $1.4350
USD/JPY Y77.75, Y78.10, Y78.75
GBP/USD $1.6000
AUD/USD $1.0900, $1.1100
USD/CAD C$0.9540

06:02
Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator (Jun) 1.48
06:00
GERMANY: Aug GfK consumer confidence 5.4
05:07
RBA Gov Glenn Stevens: "Rise in terms of trade likely now ended"
  • Households won't drive emand as they did before 
  • Per capita income growth rate may moderate
  • Recent level of savings rate more normal
  • Productivity key to improving consumer sentiment
  • Consumption unlikely to grow like 1995-2005 era
  • Many factors responsible for drop in confidence
  • Income not reason for lack of consumption growth

05:05
Forex: Monday's review

The US dollar falls against a basket of rival currencies as U.S. lawmakers failed to agree on raising the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling and Greece’s credit rating was cut.
The euro bounces back after its drop amid investors are in a gloomy mood after Moody's Investors Service cuts Greece's credit rating three notches to Ca, their second lowest rating, from Caa1 and assigned a developing outlook to the ratings.
Canada’s dollar is at the highest level since November 2007 as investors sought shelter after U.S. lawmakers failed to find consensus on raising the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. The loonie capped a second-straight weekly gain on July 22 on speculation the nation’s central bank will raise interest rates at least once this year.
Switzerland’s franc strengthened to a record against the dollar on demand for the safest assets amid U.S. debt ceiling talks and downgrade of Greece
The yen retreats from today’s advance against 15 of 16 major peers, including US dolar.

 

EUR/USD: the pair holds at  $1.4325-$ 1.4410.
GBP/USD: the pair holds at  $1.6260-$ 1.6330.
USD/JPY: the pair holds at  Y78.00-Y78.60.

05:00
Stocks: Monday's review

Asian markets fell Monday as U.S. lawmakers’ failure to reach a weekend deal to increase the nation’s debt ceiling heightened investor worries about a default.
Mainland Chinese shares tumbled on lingering worries about the nation's economic growth outlook, with railway stocks hit especially hard after a high-speed rail system accident over the weekend.
Shares of China Railway Erju Co.  dropped 5.1% and China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co. tumbled 8.6% in Shanghai, shares of China Railway Construction Group Co. and China Railway Group Ltd. each sank 6.7% in Hong Kong, in addition to losing 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, in Shanghai.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.96% for its worst one-day percentage loss since January, after Saturday’s collision of two high-speed railway trains. At least 35 people were estimated killed in the pile-up, according to reports.
 Airline stocks rose in Hong Kong, meanwhile, on hopes for a brighter outlook for air travel.
Air China Ltd. AIRYY +3.88% +3.59% added 3.6%, and China Southern Airlines Co. gained 3.4%.

European stocks slid, snapping a four-day rally, after President Barack Obama and Congress failed to reach a deal to raise the U.S. debt limit, increasing concern that the world’s largest economy may default.
Banks declined across Europe after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Greece’s sovereign-credit rating. Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA both tumbled more than 8 percent. Ryanair Holdings Plc slid 1.8 percent after Europe’s biggest discount airline reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates.
Popolare di Milano, which was downgraded today to “underweight” at JPMorgan Chase & Co., slumped 8.3 percent to 1.54 euros and Intesa Sanpaolo slumped 8.3 percent to 1.61 euros, the bank’s biggest drop in two years. UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, tumbled 7.1 percent to 1.23 euros. France’s BNP Paribas SA sank 4.3 percent to 46.70 euros.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc also retreated, falling 4.3 percent to 45.1 pence in London. The Sunday Telegraph said the lender is considering an initial public offering for the 632 bank branches it wants to sell after getting only two formal bids. The newspaper didn’t cite anyone.
Bank of Ireland rallied 1 percent to 10.2 euro cents after Finance Minister Michael Noonan said the state agreed to sell a stake in the Dublin-based lender to fewer than 10 unnamed institutional investors. The private sector will hold a minimum of 68 percent in the bank following the share sale this week.
Fiat Industrial SpA rallied 5.4 percent to 9.47 euros after the truck and tractor unit spun off from Fiat SpA in January raised its 2011 forecast for earnings before interest, taxes and one-off gains or costs to more than 1.5 billion euros.

The stock market started the week in the red Monday, but losses were not nearly as devastating as some expected, after lawmakers failed to agree on a debt ceiling deal over the weekend.
The U.S. government is just eight days away from a possible default. But instead of selling off stocks in a panic Monday, investors mostly sat on their hands watching Congress haggle.
Travelers Companies (TRV), Boeing (BA) and Procter & Gamble (PG) were the biggest drags on the Dow, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) were among the handful of gainers.
Meanwhile, credit rating agency Moody's downgraded Greece yet again, saying the European bailout package put together last week increases risk for the country's creditors.
Companies: Shares of BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) fell 4.4%, after the company announced it was laying off 2,000 employees -- 11% of its workforce.
ETrade (ETFC)'s stock jumped 5.4% on talk that TDAmeritrade (AMTD) may consider a bid for the online brokerage. Late Friday, Etrade retained Morgan Stanley (MS) to look at strategic alternatives.
Netflix (NFLX) shares tanked 7.6% after the bell, when the video rental company reported quarterly revenue of $788.6 million, falling short of analysts' estimates for $791.5 million. The company also reported a profit of $1.26 per share, beating forecasts for $1.12 a share.
The company spent much of its earnings release discussing the recent price hike that spurred thousands of online complaints.
Chipmaker Texas Instruments (TXN) is also expected to report earnings after the bell, with analysts expecting earnings of 53 cents per share.    

04:50
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.30 (Jul 15 and 20 high) 

Resistance 2: Y79.00 (Jul 21 high) 
Resistance 1: Y78.70 (area of Jul 22 high and session high) 
Current price: Y78.06
Support 1:Y77.90 (session low)  
Support 2:Y77.10 (Mar 17 low)  
Support 3:Y76.50 (Mar 16 low)  
Comments: the pair shownhigh at  Y78.70 area then decreased. The immediate support - Y77.90. Below losses are possible to Y77.10. The immeditae resistance - Y78.70. Above growthis possible to Y79.00.

04:48
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 2: Chf0.8180 (close price of the last week)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8090 (Jul 18 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8070 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8017
Support 1: Chf0.8000 (session low, psychological mark)
Support 2: Chf0.7950 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.7900 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair come nearer to Chf0.8000 (the immediate support). Below loss may extend to Chf0.7950. The immediate resistance Chf0.8070. Above is located Chf0.8090. 

04:46
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6440 (Jun 14 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6380 (38.2 % FIBO $1.6750-$ 1.5780)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6340/50 (Jul 21 high, session high)
Current price: $1.6337
Support 1 : $1.6260 (38.2 % FIBO $1.6120-$ 1.6340, Jul 22 low)
Support 2 : $1.6230 (50.0 % FIBO $1.6120-$ 1.6340)
Support 3 : $1.6200 (area of Jul 14 low and 61.8 % FIBO $1.6120-$ 1.6340)
Comments: pair tests resistance at $1.6340/50 area. Above growth is possible to $1.6380. The immediate support - $1.6260. Below decrease is  possible to $1.6230. 

04:43
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4700 (high of June)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of July)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4480/90 (session high,  resistance line from  May)
Ccurrent price: $1.4479
Support 1 : $1.4440 (Jul 21-22 high)
Support 2 : $1.4355 (session low)
Support 3 : $1.4320 (Jul 22-25 low)
Comments: the pair grown. The immediate support - $1.4440. Below losses are possible to $1.4355. Currently the pair tests resistance at $1.4480/90  area. Above growth is possible to $1.4580. 

04:40
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jul'26'2011:

00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index (May) -0.1% 0.2%

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator (Jun) 1.91 2 
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Aug) 5.6 5.7 
08:30 UK GDP (Q2) preliminary 0.1% 0.5%
08:30 UK GDP (Q2) preliminary Y/Y 0.7% 1.6%
14:00 USA New home sales (June) 322K 319K
14:00 USA Consumer confidence (July) 58.3 58.5

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