CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-05-2014

Nikkei 14,602.52 +140.35 +0.97%

Hang Seng 22,963.18 -2.68 -0.01%

Shanghai Composite 2,041.48 +6.91 +0.34%

S&P 1,900.53 +8.04 +0.42%

NASDAQ 4,185.81 +31.47 +0.76%

Dow 16,606.27 +63.19 +0.38%

FTSE 1,376.44 +7.27 +0.53%

CAC 4,526.93 +33.78 +0.75%

DAX 9,892.82 +124.81 +1.28%

EUR/USD $1,3644 +0,11%

GBP/USD $1,6840 +0,06%

USD/CHF Chf0,8947 -0,04%

USD/JPY Y101,92 -0,04%

EUR/JPY Y139,06 +0,09%

GBP/JPY Y171,62 +0,01%

AUD/USD $0,9238 +0,10%

NZD/USD $0,8549 +0,05%

USD/CAD C$1,0857 -0,06%

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance April 2.05 2.05

07:15 Switzerland Employment Level Quarter I 4.19 4.21

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals April 45.9 45.2

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders April +2.9% [Revised From +2.6%] -0.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation April +2.4% [Revised From +2.0%] +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense April +1.8%

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m March +0.6% +0.5%

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y March +6.9%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y March +12.9% +11.9%

13:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

13:43 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) April 55.0 55.6

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index May 7 5

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence May 82.3 83.2

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May -10.3

The stock indices traded higher due to European parliament elections results and the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Italia’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s party election victory boosted European stock markets. Renzi’s Democratic Party scored a massive 41% of the vote.

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalled at the conference in Sintra that the ECB will take action in June if the inflation should weaken.

German consumer confidence published by Gfk remained unchanged at 8.5 in June, meeting analysts’ expectations.

Markets in the U.K. closed for a public holiday.

Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna SC shares increased 8.9%.

Atos shares climbed 5.9% after the company reported to acquire rival Bull for about 620 million euros.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                              closed

DAX                                     9,892.82                           +124.81                      +1.28%

Brent crude fell amid speculation that Ukraine’s election of a new president may help ease months of tension with Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter. West Texas Intermediate slid in New York.

Futures dropped as much as 0.7 percent in London. Ukraine elected billionaire Petro Poroshenko as president yesterday, handing him the task of stemming separatist unrest in the country, a conduit for Russian oil and natural gas supplies to Europe. China, the second-largest oil user globally, announced plans to slow its pace of energy consumption.

“There’s been quite a political vacuum in Ukraine, and that should begin to get resolved,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone today. “News about Ukraine has been helping to bring down prices a bit,” he said, describing Poroshenko as “ someone who can sit down with the Russians to try to work out their differences.”

Brent for July settlement declined as much as 79 cents to $109.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $109.99 at 1:47 p.m. London time. The contract gained 18 cents to $110.54 on May 23. The volume of all futures traded was about 74 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have lost 0.7 percent this year.

WTI for July delivery decreased as much as 43 cents, or 0.4 percent, and was at $104.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark crude traded at a discount of $5.92 to Brent. The spread closed at $6.19 on May 23, the narrowest in five weeks.

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic reports in the U.S. Markets in the U.S. closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

The euro increased against the U.S. dollar after the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalled at new ECB annual conference in Sintra that the ECB will take action in June if the inflation should weaken.

The euro was also supported by the European parliament elections results in Greece and Italy.

The British pound traded slightly changed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in the U.K. Comments by the Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean supported the British currency. He said that the Bank of England could hike interest rates before next spring. Markets in the U.K. closed for a public holiday.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Friday’s better-than-expected consumer price index in Canada continued to weigh on the Canadian dollar. The consumer price index in Canada increase 0.3% in April (March: +0.6%), meeting analysts’ expectations. On a year-over-year rate, the consumer price index in Canada climbed 2.0% in April, from 1.5% in March.

The Canadian core consumer price index rose 0.2% in April (March: +0.3%), meeting analysts’ expectations. On a yearly basis, the Canadian core consumer price index climbed 1.4% in April, from a 1.3% increase in March.

The New Zealand dollar hits 1-month lows against the U.S. after the release of trade balance surplus from New Zealand, but later recovered all its losses. New Zealand's trade surplus dropped to NZ$534 million in April, from NZ$920 million in March. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to decline to NZ$667 million. Exports to China from New Zealand were the lowest since September. China is New Zealand’s second biggest trade partner.

The Australian dollar traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes. The BoJ minutes showed concerns over growth and inflation views. Three of the Bank of Japan's nine board members wanted the separate reviews of growth and inflation outlooks.

Gold holds below $ 1,300 an ounce in electronic trading in New York against the backdrop of conflicting signals : the expected reduction of stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve System and the conflict in the Ukraine.

Gold fell on Friday to 0.1% after reports that sales of new homes in the U.S. rose by the largest value since October. Trading platforms in the U.S. and the UK are closed today due to public holidays .

The gold market has fallen in the past year by 28% due to expectations that the Federal Reserve in connection with the economic recovery will begin reducing the bond buyback program . Since the beginning of the year the prices of precious metals rose 7.6 %, including because of strained relations between Russia and Ukraine.

Kazakhstan , Belarus and Turkey in April increased gold reserves , and Mexico - and cut , said the International Monetary Fund .

" Now investors have little reason to invest in gold - says Zhu Sytsyuan analyst Chinese GF Futures Co. - Bidding will be sluggish due to the holidays in the U.S. and in the absence of new macro data . Situation in Ukraine continues to provide background support to the market ."

Assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold exchange-traded fund , May 23, has not changed, and on May 21 fell to 776.89 tons , or the lowest level since December 2008. In China, the trading volume indicative contracts for spot delivery on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 23, decreased to 9907 kilograms of gold , or the lowest level since April 30.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX trading today in the range of $ 1290.90 - $ 1294.80 per ounce.

EUR/USD; $1.3600, $1.3620, $1.3630, $1.3650

USD/JPY; Y101.35, Y102.00, Y102.30

AUD/USD; $0.9270

AUD/NZD NZ$1.0900

USD/CAD C$1.0975

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    United Kingdom     Bank holiday                                                  

00:00    U.S.                       Bank holiday                                                  

06:00    Germany               Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey         June      8.5         8.5          8.5

08:00    Eurozone               ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic reports in the U.S. Markets in the U.S. closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

The euro increased against the U.S. dollar after the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalled at new ECB annual conference in Sintra that the ECB will take action in June if the inflation should weaken.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in the U.K. Markets in the U.K. closed for a public holiday.

EUR/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.3648

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6853

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.86

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

23:50    Japan                    CSPI, y/y            April      +0.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3775, $1.3735, $1.3685/90

Bids $1.3600, $1.3550, $1.3525/20, $1.3500

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6950, $1.6930/35, $1.6900

Bids $1.6800, $1.6780, $1.6730

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9300, $0.9280, $0.9250

Bids $0.9200,  $0.9150, $0.9100

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.00, Y139.75/80, Y139.50, Y139.20

Bids Y138.50, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.40, Y102.10

Bids Y101.50, Y101.05/00, Y100.80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8170, stg0.8140, stg0.8120,

Bids stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The stock indices traded higher due to European parliament elections results. Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s party election victory boosted European stock markets. Renzi’s Democratic Party scored a massive 40% of the vote.

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalled at the conference in Sintra that the ECB will take action in June if the inflation should weaken.

German consumer confidence published by Gfk remained unchanged at 8.5 in June, meeting analysts’ expectations.

Markets in the U.K. closed for a public holiday.

Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna SC shares increased 6.9%.

Atos shares climbed 4.6% after the company reported to acquire rival Bull for about 620 million euros.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                              closed

DAX                                     9,859.39                            +91.38                      +0.94%

CAC 40                                4,509.66                            +16.51                      +0.37%

EUR/USD; $1.3600, $1.3620(VL), $1.3630, $1.3650

USD/JPY; Y101.35, Y102.00, Y102.30

AUD/USD; $0.9270

AUD/NZD NZ$1.0900

USD/CAD C$1.0975

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said at conference in Sintra, Portugal:

• The ECB monitors exchange rate and credit dynamics closely;
  
• Low level of harmonised consumer price index (HICP) in the Eurozone is caused by the strong euro;
  
• The ECB should monitor closely the negative inflationary spiral;
  
• The ECB could purchase assets in the case of weakening inflation;
  
• Low inflation will be last for a longer period of tome but gradually return to 2%.
  

Most Asian stock indices surged due to the positive U.S. housing data, following the U.S. indices. The U.S. new home sales increased 6.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 units. March's figure was revised up to 407,000 from 384,000. Analysts had expected a gain to 425,000.

The Japanese index Nikkei 225 has benefited from the weak yen.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                      14,602.52              +140.35        +0.97%

Hang Seng                      22,963.18                    -2.68        -0.01%

Shanghai Composite         2,041.48                 +6.91         +0.34%

Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co. slid 21% after the company suspended its study on an experimental drug for colorectal cancer.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    United Kingdom    Bank holiday                                                   

00:00    U.S.                      Bank holiday                                                   

06:00    Germany              Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey         June      8.5         8.5          8.5

08:00    Eurozone              ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was supported by the positive U.S. housing data, published on Friday. The U.S. new home sales increased 6.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 units. March's figure was revised up to 407,000 from 384,000. Analysts had expected a gain to 425,000.

Markets in the U.S. closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

The New Zealand dollar hits 1-month lows against the U.S. after the release of trade balance surplus from New Zealand. New Zealand's trade surplus dropped to NZ$534 million in April, from NZ$920 million in March. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to decline to NZ$667 million. Exports to China from New Zealand were the lowest since September. China is New Zealand’s second biggest trade partner.

The Australian dollar traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes. The BoJ minutes showed concerns over growth and inflation views. Three of the Bank of Japan's nine board members wanted the separate reviews of growth and inflation outlooks.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3615

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

23:50    Japan                    CSPI, y/y            April      +0.7%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3777 (3260)

$1.3742 (4266)

$1.3690 (552)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3618

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3599 (2833)

$1.3584 (6379)

$1.3563 (3500)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 56873 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (6343);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 73732 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3500 (6679);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.30 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 23

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (1855)

$1.7001 (2727)

$1.6903 (2070)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6835

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6796 (1669)

$1.6698 (2394)

$1.6599 (1605)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23555 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2727);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 25155 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2542);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.