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26.05.2011
19:14
Dow +39.05 at 12433.71, Nasdaq +25.35 at 2786.73, S&P +7.32 at 1327.79

Stocks have stretched to marginally improved session highs. Today's move extends yesterday's advance, which was the first gain for the stock market in four sessions.

18:42
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD recovers amid very light flows. Currently the rate rises on some talk that IMF wants to make sure that Greece is adequately funded. Flows are very light.

18:31
Dow +9.95 at 12404.61, Nasdaq +16.52 at 2777.90, S&P +3.48 at 1323.95

Consumer discretionary (+0.8%), telecom (+0.8%), and tech (+0.6%) are today's top performing sectors. At the other end of the spectrum, health care (-0.1%), utilities (+0.1%), and consumer staples stocks (+0.1%) are the worst performing sectors of the session.

   

18:11
USD/JPY holds tight

USD/JPY holds Y81.32 area below rebound highs seen in the Y81.45 zone. Rate holds above Y81.15. Tech resistance comes at Y82.00. Downside in the pair sees bids in place ahead of Y81.00 with stops below.

17:48
USD/CAD retreats

USD/CAD holds C$0.9790 area after seeing a high at C$0.9815, the pair stalling just shy of earlier mentioned stops atop C$0.9820. Good supply maybe tested above C$0.9800 if those stops triggered.

17:34
US focus: Dollar falls on rate outlook after data trail forecast

The dollar dropped against the yen as the economy grew less than forecast and jobless-benefit claims unexpectedly rose, adding to speculation the U.S. will lag behind other nations in raising interest rates.
“Both the GDP and the claims were worse overall,” said Jens Nordvig at Nomura Holdings Inc.. “This is something that suggests that rates in the U.S. are going to stay quite low for the time being. Dollar-yen is always the most sensitive to U.S. rates.”
U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the same as estimated last month, Commerce Department figures showed today. That compares with a 3.1% gain in the prior quarter. The median forecast of economists called for a 2.2% increase. Consumer spending rose 2.2%, down from a 2.7% initial estimate.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to 424,000 in the week ended May 21, Labor Department figures showed today. The median estimate of economists called for a drop to 404,000.

The euro fell to a record low against the Swiss franc after Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads euro-area finance ministers, said the International Monetary Fund may not release its share of aid to Greece next month.
The IMF said in a report today that Switzerland’s central bank should start raising borrowing costs to fight emerging price pressures as the economy strengthens.
The euro earlier rose versus the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers are “carefully” monitoring inflation, fueling bets the region’s economy is strong enough for higher borrowing costs.
The ECB raised its main refinancing rate to 1.25% last month after keeping it at a record low of 1% for almost two years. The Fed has held its target rate at zero to 0.25% since December 2008. It’s forecast to keep the benchmark unchanged until the first quarter of 2012.

17:10
EUR/GBP under pressure

EUR/GBP tested lows around stg0.8608 and back up. Currently cross holds around stg0.8619, but still remains under pressure. From Asian highs cross fell 100 points today.

15:15
EUR/JPY tries to recover

EUR/JPY holds around Y114.64 after falling to the lows around Y114.44. Cross trades much lower Asian high on Y116.40. EUR/JPY seeing double-edged downside prssure, first from dollar-yen stops and then from euro-dollar sell-off.

14:49
Nomura about Payrolls

Nomura points out last wk's lower jobless claims reading (414k) corresponds with the payroll survey period. They expect next Friday's payroll release to show nonfarm payrolls +175k.

14:40
JPM: "The weakness in the jobless claims data has persisted too long to ignore and suggests that the labor market, which had been a bright spot in Q1, is turning a bit softer in Q2."
14:14
Dow -19.00 at 12375.66, Nasdaq +0.66 at 2762.04, S&P -0.74 at 1319.73
14:03
HSBC says after digesting the morning data they now expect Q2 GDP growth at 3.1%
13:32
Before the bell:

Stock futures were mixed Thursday, suggesting a weak opening, after reports showed an increase in weekly unemployment filings and tepid economic growth in the first quarter.
Stocks have been struggling this month, as optimism over upbeat corporate earnings has been tempered by signs the economy could be in for a slowdown this summer.
Analysts at Standard & Poors are predicting the stock market could be in for a 10% correction over the next month.
Economy: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to 424,000 in the most recent week, the Labor Department said.
Economists were expecting 400,000 initial claims, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.
Separately, the government's revised reading on first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product was unchanged from the initial report. The Commerce Department said GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, grew 1.8% over the same quarter a year ago.
Economists had expected the figure to be revised up to 2%.
Companies: Shares of Tiffany & Co. (TIF) rose more than 4% in pre-market trading after the luxury jeweler reported a 12% jump in sales. The company also hiked its quarterly dividend payment to 29 cents per share from 25 cents.
NetApp (NTAP) shares rose 4% before the open after the data storage company reported strong quarterly results late Wednesday and issued an upbeat outlook for the current quarter.
Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) priced its initial public offering at $18 a share, below its estimated range of between $22 and $24 per share. The company will start trading on the NYSE under the ticker 'FSL.'
Discount retailer Big Lots (BIG, Fortune 500) said earnings rose in the most recent quarter, but issued a dour sales outlook for the current quarter, saying it expects revenue to be flat or down 3%.
World markets:

Oil for July delivery fell 34 cents to $100.98 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery fell $1.80 to $1,524.90 an ounce. Silver priced edged 2% lower.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.13% from 3.14% late Wednesday.

13:05
USD/JPY under pressure after weak US data

Sharply lower after the GDP and jobless claims numbers as yields drive the dollar down through support at Y81.70, stops at Y81.60 and Y81.40, and Monday's low of Y81.30. Dollar eased down to Y81.15 on the run. Closest support eyed at Y80.95/90.

12:55
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4155
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.75, Y82.20, Y82.50, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6050

12:32
US: Initial jobless claims +10k to 424k in May 21 week
12:31
US: Q1 real GDP remains +1.8%
12:15
European session:

The euro rose against the dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers are “carefully” monitoring inflation, fueling bets the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates.
The ECB needs “to avoid commodity-price increases becoming entrenched in longer-term inflation expectations, which could have second-round effects on wages and prices,” Trichet said at a conference in Berlin today, according to a text provided by the Frankfurt-based ECB. “We are carefully monitoring the situation and we stand ready to do whatever is necessary to fulfill our mandate.”
The single currency snapped four days of losses against the Swiss franc, climbing from a record low. The Financial Times reported that European Financial Stability Facility Chief Executive Officer Klaus Regling said Asian investors, including China, may buy Portuguese bailout bonds when the EFSF sells them in June, easing concern that the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will spread.
“China’s interest is definitely a short-term positive,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp. “The longer-term issue of a restructuring of some sort for Greece remains in the background and may be an obstacle to a longer-term rally in the euro.”


EUR/USD: gained up to $1.4190.
GBP/USD: the pair posted high at $1.6330 then stabelized near  $1.6300.
JPY/USD: the pair found the base at Y81.70 before bounced back to Y82.00.


US data starts at 1230GMT with the wekly jobless claims also the second release of Q1 GDP data. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 4,000 to 405,000 in the May 21 week, continuing to retrace from its sharp April gains. The pace of GDP growth is expected to be revised up to +2.1% for the first quarter on upward adjustments to PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and inventory building. Residential building is expected to be a larger drag on GDP than previously estimated. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +1.9%.
11:49
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4200/05, $1.4220, $1.4250, $1.4300
Bids: $1.4130, $1.4120/00, $1.4050, $1.4030/20, $1.4000


USD/JPY
Offers: Y82.10/20, Y82.60
Bids: Y81.70/60, Y81.30

11:08
ECB NOYER: Greece insolvency would be horror scenario
  • Greek banks could fail if insolvency
10:28
EUR/USD keeps positive mood

Clears above $1.4170, extends recovery to $1.4185, but upside momentum seen faltering. Offers remain in place from above $1.4190 through to $1.4205, with stops noted above. Bids eyed at $1.4140.

10:08
ECB NOWOTNY: Ready for further action to control med-term inflation
09:53
ECB TRICHET: Saw upside risks to m-t inflation outlook in past months
  • Must avoid commodity prices driving up inflation expectations;
  • Non-standard measures no obstacle to monetary tightening;
  • Concerned Stability Pact reforms do not go far enough.
09:28
FTSE +0.46% 5,897, CAC +0.26% 3,939, DAX -0.16% 7,159
09:20
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4155 
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.75, Y82.20, Y82.50, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6050

08:40
GERMANY MERKEL: Global economic upswing becoming more sustained
08:24
Asian stock close:

Hang Seng +0.63% 22,890
Nikkei +1.48% 9562.05
Shanghai Composite -0.19% 2,736.53

07:51
Asian session: The euro strengthened

The euro strengthened the most in a week against the dollar and yen on speculation China will increase purchases of European bonds, boosting confidence the region will emerge from its sovereign-debt crisis.
The single currency gained against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers after the Financial Times reported that European Financial Stability Facility Chief Executive Officer Klaus Regling had said Asian investors, including China, may buy Portuguese bailout bonds when the EFSF begins selling in June. 
Australia’s dollar climbed after a report showed business investment increased more than economists forecast in the first quarter.
Australian capital spending climbed 3.4 percent in the three months to March 31 from the fourth quarter, when it gained a revised 1.5 percent, the government statistics agency said today. The median forecast in a survey of economists was for a 2.7 percent increase.

EUR/USD: the pair overcome resistance in the field of $1.4160 and become stronger in around $1.4190.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1.6330 then decreased in around $1.6300.
JPY/USD: the pair shown low in the field of Y81.70 then returned back to around Y82.00.

At 0920GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet delivers a speech at the WDR Europaforum.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the wekly jobless claims also the second release of Q1 GDP data. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 4,000 to 405,000 in the May 21 week, continuing to retrace from its sharp April gains. The pace of GDP growth is expected to be revised up to +2.1% for the first quarter on upward adjustments to PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and inventory building. Residential building is expected to be a larger drag on GDP than previously estimated. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +1.9%.

07:41
Forex: Wednesday's review

The Swiss franc climbed against all of its 16 most-traded peers, reaching a record versus the euro, on concern Greece’s debt crisis threatens the region’s economic recovery as European leaders struggle to resolve it.
The euro erased losses against the dollar as stocks rallied. The pound advanced after the U.K.’s gross domestic product rose in the first quarter. The franc climbed versus Europe’s shared currency for a fourth day, the longest winning streak in a month. 
The franc also strengthened as investors speculated the record exchange rate against the euro won’t prevent Switzerland’s central bank from raising interest rates as the economy expands. Jan-Egbert Sturm, head of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, told state television the central bank may increase borrowing costs from near zero as soon as next month.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a report today the Swiss central bank should start raising borrowing costs this year to counter emerging inflationary pressures. 
U.S. durable goods orders decreased 3.6 percent following a 4.1 percent jump in March, dropping the most in six months, Commerce Department data showed today. 
The euro fell against the franc as European officials disagreed over how to resolve the debt crisis.
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told the French newspaper Les Echos in an interview Greek debt maturities could be extended on a voluntary basis.
European Central Bank Executive Board Member Juergen Stark said Greece, Ireland and Portugal need a “drastic change” in economic policy. Restructuring Greece’s debt “cannot, must not be the solution,” Stark said in a speech in Berlin. Euro-area leaders should “please consider the consequences” of a debt restructuring, Stark said. 

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.4000 then restored and finished session in around $1.4080.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around $1.6270.
JPY/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of Y81.80-Y82.20.

At 0920GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet delivers a speech at the WDR Europaforum.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the wekly jobless claims also the second release of Q1 GDP data. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 4,000 to 405,000 in the May 21 week, continuing to retrace from its sharp April gains. The pace of GDP growth is expected to be revised up to +2.1% for the first quarter on upward adjustments to PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and inventory building. Residential building is expected to be a larger drag on GDP than previously estimated. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +1.9%.

06:58
Stocks: Wednesda's review

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.6
Tokyo Electron declined 2.1 percent to 4,410 yen. Elpida Memory Inc., the world’s third-largest maker of computer memory, slumped 3.8 percent to 1,048 yen. Dainippon Screen Manufacturing Co., a chip equipment maker, dropped 2.8 percent to 654 yen in Tokyo.
Toyota rose 2.2 percent to 3,315 yen, even as it denied media reports in Japan that its auto production will recover to 90 percent in June, and repeated that output will be restored to 70 percent next month.
Honda Motor Co. gained 1.3 percent to 3,065 yen. Nissan Motor Co. rose 1.3 percent to 791 yen. Deutsche Bank AG raised its profit estimates for both Honda and Nissan, citing higher car sales.

European stocks climbed the most in two weeks as concern eased that the region’s debt crisis will spread after Jean-Claude Juncker said an assessment on new measures for Greece may come as soon as next week.
Banks had the best performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, with Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) rising 5.1 percent. EON AG and RWE AG (RWE), Germany’s biggest utilities, advanced after the Financial Times Deutschland reported the government may scrap a tax on nuclear reactors. Cable & Wireless Communications Plc (CWC) plunged 12 percent after saying it’s cautious on the outlook for its Caribbean operations.

U.S. stocks advanced, with benchmark indexes snapping a three-day decline, as commodity shares rallied on expectations for higher raw material prices.
Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) and Halliburton Co. (HAL) gained at least 1.2 percent as oil climbed following a report showing that U.S. distillate fuel supplies dropped to a two-year low. Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. advanced 2.4 percent as copper rose after Deutsche Bank AG said prices are likely to rebound. Fifth Third Bancorp and BB&T Corp. (BBT) increased more than 1.4 percent after Fitch Ratings said it probably won’t downgrade German banks because of their holdings of Greek debt.
The S&P 500 fell 3.5 percent from an almost three-year high on April 29 through yesterday on concern about Europe’s debt crisis and weaker-than-forecast economic data. Indexes of commodity producers led the declines during that period, slumping at least 6.3 percent. Still, the benchmark gauge rose 4.7 percent since the end of 2010 through yesterday on government stimulus measures and higher-than-forecast profits.
Gauges of energy and raw material shares rose at least 1.3 percent today, the two biggest gains in the S&P 500 within 10 industries. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rallied 1.5 percent. Oil rose above $101 a barrel in New York. Copper gained the most in two months as Deutsche Bank said prices are likely to rebound, following similar comments from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Schlumberger, the world’s largest oilfield services provider, added 1.2 percent to $84.24. Halliburton rose 4 percent to $49.40 after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation for the world’s second-largest oilfield services provider to “overweight” from “equal-weight.” Freeport, the largest publicly traded copper producer, gained 2.4 percent to $50.

06:38
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y83.10 (Apr 20 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 1: Y82.10/20 (May 19 and 24 high) 
Current price: Y81.78
Support 1:Y81.70 (support line from May 5)  
Support 2:Y81.30 (May 23 low)  
Support 3:Y80.90 (May 18 low)  
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support - Y81.70. Below losses are possible to Y81.30. The nearest resistance - Y82.10/20. Above growth is possible to Y82.80. 

06:30
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.8820 (61.8 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8690, May 25 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8770 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8690)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8730 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8697
Support 1: Chf0.8690 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8670 (May 6 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8550 (low of May)

Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Chf0,8690. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8670. The nearest resistance Chf0.8730. Above is located Chf0.8770. 

 

06:26
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6480 (61.8 % FIBO $1.6750-$ 1.6060)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6400 (50.0 % FIBO $1.6750-$ 1.6060)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6330 (session high)
Current price: $1.6305
Support 1 : $1.6265 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6190 (50.0 % FIBO $1.6060-$ 1.6330, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.6130 (May 25 low)

Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - $1.6330. Above growth is possible to $1.6400. The nearest support $1.6265. Below decrease is  possible to $1.6190. 

06:01
GERMANY DATA: April import prices +0.3% m/m, +9.4% y/y; April ex-oil/oil products +6.2% y/y
05:50
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4340 (May 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4200 (May 18-19 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4160 (support line from May 4)
Current price: $1.4147
Support 1 : $1.4070 (session low) 
Support 2 : $1.4010 (May 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.3970 (May 23 low)

Comments: the pair tests resistance in the field of $1.4160. Above growth is possible to $1,4200. The nearest support $1,4070. Below losses are possible to $1.4010.

05:36
Schedule for today, Thursday, May 26 2011:

06:00 Germany Import prices (April) 0.8% 1.1%
06:00 Germany Import prices (April) Y/Y 9.9% 11.3%
06:00 Germany Import prices excluding oil (April) Y/Y - 7.7%
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 21.05) 401K 409K
12:30 USA GDP (Q1) revised Y/Y 1.9% 1.8%
12:30 USA PCE price index (Q1) revised - 3.8%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q1) revised - 1.5%
20:30 USA M2 money supply (16.05), bln - +28.2
23:01 UK Gfk consumer confidence (May) -31 -31
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (April) - 0.3%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (April) Y/Y - 0.0%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (April) Y/Y 0.5% -0.1%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (May) - 0.3%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (May) Y/Y - -0.1%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (May) Y/Y 0.2% 0.2%
23:30 Japan Household spending (April) real Y/Y - -8.5%
23:50 Japan Retail sales (April) Y/Y -6.4% -8.5%

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