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26.04.2011
18:44
Dow +109.10 at 12588.98, Nasdaq +20.93 at 2846.18, S&P +11.13 at 1346.38

Stocks are off of their session highs, but the overall tone of trade is still strong. Despite the upbeat mood of broad market participants, shares of Netflix (NFLX 229.09, -22.58) have taken a deep dive. The stock's 9% loss comes on high share volume, too. In fact, the near 12 million shares of NFLX that have already traded hands today is double the average daily volume. The pace has shares of NFLX headed for one of their highest daily volume totals of the year, even though participation in the broad market remains unimpressive.

18:01
Gold and silver remain soft, weighed by the profit-taking and paring of positions seen earlier.

Spot gold holds at $1501.25/oz, after trading in a $1493.85 to $1507.86 range. The precious metal posted a new life high of $1518.10 Monday. Spot silver holds at $45.03/oz, in the middle of a $44.70/$47.11 range. Silver posted a 31-year high of $49.31 Monday.

17:04
American focus: dollar remains under pressure

The dollar dropped for a sixth day against the euro, matching the longest losing streak since May 2009, on speculation the Federal Reserve will consider measures to keep yields low to support the U.S. economy.
The greenback fell to almost the lowest level since August 2008 against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as a report showed home prices dropped by the most in more than a year. The central bank begins a two-day policy meeting that will be followed by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s first post policy decision press conference.
The U.S. central bank will leave its target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25 percent at its two-day meeting. The Fed may say it plans to complete the purchase of $600 billion of Treasuries by June.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.3 percent in February from a year earlier in the biggest decrease since November 2009.
“The bias is still very much to sell the dollar, and any pullbacks in euro and the commodity currencies are still very shallow,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “The market is expecting the Fed statement to reaffirm the weak-dollar trend.”
The euro rose earlier against the yen and dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated policy makers stand ready to raise interest rates to counter inflation expectations.
“We have risks of second-round effects here and there,” Trichet said in the transcript of an interview with the Finnish publications Helsingin Sanomat and Kauppalehti that was released on the ECB’s website. Second-round effects refer to an increase in consumer prices prompting bigger wage increases that then feed through to faster inflation.

16:27
Dow +11.29 at 12591.23, Nasdaq +26.15 at 2852.03, S&P +12.37 at 1347.97

The broad market continues to add steadily to its gain. It is now up nearly 1%. More impressive, though, is the near 3% gain that is presently sported by the Amex Airline Index. Airline shares have been bolstered by better-than-expected results from Delta Air Lines (DAL 9.79, +0.79) and US Airways (LCC 8.74, +0.46).
The Dow Jones Transportation Index is also up more than 2%. UPS (UPS 74.45, +0.81) has been a boon to the space following its latest quarterly report and increased earnings forecast.

15:50
ECB's Liikanen: there is no euro crisis and that euro is firm.
  • Greece, Ireland and Portugal all separate situations.
15:46
Dow +81.21 at 12561.61, Nasdaq +20.80 at 2846.58, S&P +10.04 at 1345.29

The major equity averages continue to gradually add to their gains. The effort has been broad based in that all 10 of the sectors that make up the S&P 500 are at or near their session highs.
Industrials are still today's frontrunners. The sector has sprinted ahead to a 1.9% gain. Consumer discretionary stocks are trailing as they trade with a 0.3% gain. Financials are also lagging; they are up just 0.4%.

15:16
USD/CAD remains under pressure

Skids lower to C$0.9515/10 in recent dealings, a US investment name a conspicuous seller of the pair in recent dealings, traders say. Area of C$0.9500 suspected of holding bids with talk of stops sub C$0.9480.

14:55
CS on consumer confidence

"Consumer confidence improved modestly, but this level marks the second highest reading (Feb'11 was the highest) since the recession ended in Jun 2009. Improvement was across components - the present situation and expectations components both increased." They say rising expectations may mean more consumer spending.

14:14
Dow +51.84 at 12531.72, Nasdaq +12.19 at 1838.07, S&P +6.24 at 1341.49

Stocks have added to their morning gains. The effort has been supported by a stronger-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index.
The Conference Board just posted its Consumer Confidence Index for April. The Index came in at 65.4, which is not only greater than the 64.4 that had been widely expected, but it is also greater than the upwardly revised 63.8 that was posted for the prior month.
Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+1.4%), Telecom (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.5%), Materials (+0.4%), Energy (+0.2%), Tech (+0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Financials (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)

14:01
US: Apr Conference Bd consumer confidence 65.4 vs 63.8 March
13:33
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.4360, $1.4400, $1.4500, $1.4600
USD/JPY Y81.25, Y82.35, Y82.75, Y83.10
GBP/USD $1.6500
EUR/GBP stg0.8795
AUD/USD $1.0600
AUD/JPY Y86.00

13:23
Before the bell: Stocks poised for earnings boost

U.S. stocks were headed for slight gains at Tuesday's open, as investors poured through another round of earnings reports and the latest data on home prices.

Corporate news: Early Tuesday, Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) reported its strongest first quarter in 13 years, posting earnings of 61 cents per share on $33.1 billion in revenue. Ford shares rose more than 4% in premarket trading.
3M (MMM, Fortune 500) shares rose 1% and Delta (DAL, Fortune 500)'s stock advanced 2%. Both companies beat estimates on earnings and revenue.
It wasn't all good news. Lexmark International (LVK) shares fell 7.3% and Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) shares lost 2%. Both companies reported disappointing earnings.
Netflix (NFLX) shares tumbled more than 5%, a day after the company reported solid earnings but issued an outlook that fell short of forecasts.
Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) is on tap to announce quarterly earnings after the closing bell Tuesday.
Economy: After the start of trading, the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence index for April. Economists forecast the index to have edged up to 64.4 from 63.4 in March, showing consumers are slightly more optimistic about the economy.
Meanwhile, this week also brings Wednesday's Federal Reserve press conference and Thursday's report on U.S. economic growth.

13:01
US: Feb S&P Case-Shiller unadj home prices -3.3% YOY.
12:49
EUR/USD gains traction

EUR/USD printed hourly high on $1.4640 and currently holds around $1.4633. Expect offers in place to $1.4660 with stops above, bids back ahead of $1.4600.

12:37
Wall Street: Dow and Nasdaq futures holding slight gains, sufficient to erase light Monday losses (Dow futures are up 38 points, Nasdaq futures are ahead by 8).
12:25
AUD/USD rises again

AUD/USD challenges the $1.0750 option barrier. Rate currently trades around $1.0752, off intraday highs of $1.0767.Traders also note that the $1.0800 level holds the next barrier interest, with protective selling sitting ahead.

12:07
US CORPS/US STOCKS:

3M Co (MMM) reported higher than expected first quarter earnings by $0.05 at $1.49 earnings per share vs $1.44 expected.
Ford Motor Co (F) exceeded expectations by $0.12 at $0.62 EPS vs $050.

Among the first quarter earnings announcements expected today with general market estimates include:
Amazon.Com Inc. (AMZN) $0.61 est vs $0.66 year ago
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL) $1.31 est vs $1.06 year ago
Wesbanco, Inc. (WSBC) $0.34 est vs $0.30 year ago

11:53
EU session review: Dollar falls ahead of FOMC

Data released:
10:00     UK     CBI industrial order books balance (April)    -11%    +3%    +5%
10:00     UK     CBI industrial output balance (April)    22%    -    27%

The dollar fell against the yen and dropped against the franc on speculation the Federal Reserve will discuss measures to keep yields low to support the economy.
Fed policy makers, who begin a two-day meeting today, may consider measures to support the economy as the end of its $600 billion asset-purchase program approaches in June.
“The Federal Reserve is likely to remain cautious and stress that loose monetary policy will be in place in the foreseeable future,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
“We expect the Fed will leave its policy rate on hold,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. “Should Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicate the Fed is in no hurry to start reversing policy accommodation, further dollar weakness may be on the cards.”
The U.S. central bank will leave its target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25 percent at its two-day meeting starting today, according to another survey. The Fed may say it plans to complete the purchase of $600 billion of Treasuries by June.

EUR/USD rose to a new 2011 highs on $1.4652 before Trichet's comments dragged the rate down to $1.4600/05.

GBP/USD gained to session highs on $1.6533 before retreated to $1.6468.

USD/JPY holds within the narrow range between Y81.55/80.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities for the 12 months through February fell 3.3%, the biggest decline since November 2009, according to a survey of economists.
US consumer confidence at 1400GMT the highlights though seen overshadowed by Wednesday's FOMC.


11:30
JPM ahead of FOMC

JPM comments on the Weds FOMC statement, saying it will "indicate that QE2 is coming to an end as planned" and could contain "language similar to that used when QE1 was coming to a close."

11:00
EUR/USD holds tight

EUR/USD holds back around $1.4618 after earlier triggering barrier at $1.4650 and taken out on the earlier rally to $1.4653 (new 2011 high). Support now seen to $1.4600, a break to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4580. Resistance now seen from $1.4650 through to $1.4660 with stops above.

10:48
EU focus: Euro dips after Trichet remarks

The euro slipped on Tuesday after European Central Bank Governor Jean-Claude Trichet said he shares the view that a strong dollar is in the interest of United States, a comment taken by some market players as showing frustration over the dollar's relentless fall and also an attempt to talk up the currency.
Trichet also told two Finnish newspapers he does not see any significant second-round inflation, prompting traders to dump euro long positions against the dollar, although many traders think the dollar will remain under pressure from a perception that the U.S. central bank is far more reluctant to tighten its policy any time soon.
"I don't take it lightly that Trichet is talking about the dollar rather than the euro. European policymakers became alarmed when the euro rose above $1.45 in 2007 and they started to rein in the dollar's fall," said Minori Uchida, a senior analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, adding that the world's policy-makers are increasingly worried about the dollar's fall.
"In the Group of Seven (G7) statement right after the dollar index hit a record low in March 2008, the G7 said it was concerned about currency moves. The U.S doesn't necessarily want to cheapen the dollar against the euro and the yen. Its target is China. So I wouldn't be surprised if there were international moves (to stem the dollar's fall)," he added.
The dollar rose 0.3% against a basket of major currencies to 74.190, pulling away from a three-year low of 73.735 hit last week.


Despite the dollar's gain on Tuesday, many market players think the U.S. currency will remain fragile given the perception that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to unwind its easy monetary policy.
The Fed is expected to say it will stick to its plan to complete a $600 billion bond-buying programme in June at its two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday, with the focus on the post-meeting news conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday - the first regularly scheduled news briefing by a Fed chief in the U.S. central bank's 97-year history.

10:33
USD/CHF under pressure

USD/CHF remains under pressure after refreshing record lows at Chf0.8740. Currently rate holds around Chf0.8772. Support area comes between Chf0.8640/60.




10:12
Reaction on news:

GBP/USD is down 10 pips lower at $1.6480 following release of much weaker than expected UK CBI survey. Gilts are little changed with 10-year Gilt holding above
the 3.50% yield level.

10:00
UK CBI MONTHLY TRENDS: APR TOTAL ORDERS -11% VS +5% MAR
09:51
EUR/USD refreshed 2011 highs

EUR/USD printed session highs on $1.4653, posting fresh 2011 highs after triggering barrier interest at $1.4650. Rate retains a firm tone, currently trading around $1.4626. Further stops seemn palced through to $1.4660.


09:40
EUR/GBP holds higher

EUR/GBP challenged reported resistance area between stg0.8875/80, touching a high of stg0.8877 before it retreated to current stg0.8865. Above stg0.8880 cross can edge on toward stg0.8900 ahead of stronger resistance seen up at stg0.8920/25.

09:27
FTSE +0.38% 6,041, CAC +0.42% 4,039, DAX +0.43% 7,327
09:03
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

Сегодня в14:00 GMT истекает срок действия следующих опционов:
EUR/USD $1.4360, $1.4400, $1.4500, $1.4600
USD/JPY Y81.25, Y82.35, Y82.75, Y83.10
GBP/USD $1.6500
EUR/GBP stg0.8795
AUD/USD $1.0600
AUD/JPY Y86.00

08:50
Asian session:

The Federal Reserve’s trade- weighted dollar index fell to a record last week on speculation the central bank will discuss ways to keep yields low.
The U.S. Trade Weighted Major Currency Index, measuring the dollar’s performance versus seven currencies, dropped for a sixth week before an industry report that may show U.S. home prices slid for a fifth month. Fed policy makers, who begin a two-day meeting today, may consider measures to support the economy as the end of its $600 billion asset-purchase program approaches in June.
S&P/Case-Shiller’s index of home values in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month decrease since November 2009, according to the median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by News.
The U.S. central bank will likely keep the benchmark interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent through year- end, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to speak to reporters after this week’s policy meeting.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,4490 then grown in around $1,4600.

GBP/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,6430 then above $1,6500.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y81,60-Y82,00. 

UK CBI monthly trends at 1000GMT ahead of US Redbook retail sales at 1255GMT and US consumer confidence at 1400GMT the highlights though seen overshadowed by Wednesday's FOMC. 

08:35
Forex: Monday's review

The dollar won a reprieve on Monday after last week's steep slide but traders said it could head for a test of its all-time low against a basket of currencies if the U.S. Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance towards tightening later in the week.
In thin trade due to Easter holidays in Australia and much of Europe, Japanese importer bids for dollars were enough to boost the U.S. currency against the yen and help it to erase earlier losses against other currencies.
With dollar interest rates seen taking a pivotal role in the market, players are looking to a news conference by Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday after the central bank's two-day policy meeting.
The dollar index rose slightly to 74.07, but many trader says it could test a three-year low of 73.735 hit last week. A break of that could open the way for a test of the record low of 70.698 hit in 2008.
The dollar has been falling due to perceptions that the United States is set to maintain an easy monetary policy even as most other major global economies look to tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation.
The Fed is widely expected to stick to completing its $600 billion asset purchase programme in June but many market players think a backdrop of softer-than-expected economic data, weak housing markets and possible government austerity measures to tackle the budget deficit all make it more likely the Fed will keep its support for the recovery in place for some time.
Many analysts believe the U.S. central bank will hold the size of its balance sheet steady by reinvesting maturing assets after June to avoid a passive tightening -- an issue that will likely be discussed at the April 26-27 meeting. 

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4520-$ 1,4630.

GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1,6500.

USD/JPY: the pair has shown a high in the field of Y82,40 then decreased and finished session in around Y81,80. 


UK CBI monthly trends at 1000GMT ahead of US Redbook retail sales at 1255GMT and US consumer confidence at 1400GMT the highlights though seen overshadowed by Wednesday's FOMC. 

07:57
Stocks: Monday's review

 

Japanese stocks dropped, led by car and tire makers as Mazda Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. said domestic vehicle production fell by more than half in March after a record earthquake and tsunami disrupted supply chains.
Mazda, Japan’s second-biggest car exporter, dropped as much as 2.7 percent. Bridgestone Corp., the world’s largest maker of tires, fell 1.3 percent. Tokyo Electric Power Co. gained 8.4 percent after a Nikkei newspaper report that the government’s plan to compensate victims of the Fukushima nuclear accident doesn’t involve de-listing the utility. Banks, large Tokyo Electric shareholders, also rose.
Trading volume on Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first section dropped to its lowest level since Dec. 29 ahead of earnings announcements this week by companies including Canon Inc., Sharp Corp. and Komatsu Ltd.
U.S. stocks fell, breaking a three- day streak of gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as commodity producers led declines. The dollar slipped versus the Swiss franc for a fourth straight day.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.1 percent to 1,335.7 at 2:25 p.m. in New York as gauges of energy and raw-material companies lost at least 0.6 percent. Oil was little changed at $112.29 a barrel in New York, near a 31-month high. Copper futures plunged 2.3 percent, the most in more than six weeks, while gold and silver touched records. The U.S. dollar weakened 0.6 percent against the franc, the most among 16 major currencies. Ten-year Treasury yields fell three basis points to 3.37 percent.
Marathon Oil Corp. lost 2.2 percent to pace losses among commodity producers in the S&P 500, while Kimberly-Clark Corp. retreated 3.2 percent after the maker of Scott toilet paper and Huggies diapers cut the lower end of its 2011 profit forecast, citing higher materials costs. Investors also looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s statement on interest rates and the economic outlook on April 27.
The S&P 500 has failed to rise above its 2011 high reached on February 18 even as it closed less than 1 percent below that peak on seven days so far in April. The Feb. 18 close of 1,343.01 was the index’s highest since June 2008. The gauge is still up more than 6 percent in 2011 amid higher-than-estimated profits and government programs to stimulate the economy.
Per-share earnings have exceeded estimates at 81 percent of the 124 companies in the S&P 500 that reported first-quarter results since April 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Federal Open Market Committee will hold the benchmark interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent on April 27, according to all 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.9 percent annual pace after increasing at a 3.1 percent rate in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before an April 28 Commerce Department report.



 

07:41
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.10 (Apr 20 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.40 (Apr 25 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.00/10 (session high) 
Current price: Y81.70
Support 1:Y81.55/50 (session low, Apr 21-22 and Mar 29 low)    
Support 2:Y80.70 (around of Mar 18-24 low)  
Support 3:Y79.80 (Mar 17 high)    
Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - Y81.55/50. Below losses are possible to Y80.70. The nearest resistance - Y80.10. Above growth is possible to Y82.40/50.



07:34
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8910 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8880 (session high, Apr 22 high)
Current price: Chf0.8823
Support 1: Chf0.8700 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8770 (Apr 25 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0.8840. The nearest support - Chf0,8830. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8780. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8875. Above is located Chf0.8925

07:00
Tech on EUR/USD
Resistance 3: $1.4770 (Dec 11'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4650 (Apr 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4590 (session high)
Current price: $1.4567
Support 3 : $1.4490 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4460 (38,2 % FIBO $1,4155-$ 1,4650)
Support 3 : $1.4400 (50.0 % FIBO $1,4155-$ 1,4650)
Comments: the pair bounced back from $1.4490. The nearest resistance - $ 1.4590, ahead of $1.4650. Above growth is possible  to $1.4770. The nearest support $1.4490. Below losses may widen to $1.4460.
05:22
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Apr 25 2011:

11:00 UK CBI industrial order books balance (April) +3% +5%
11:00 UK CBI industrial output balance (April) - 27%
12:55 USA Redbook (23.04)  
14:00 USA Consumer confidence (April) 64.7 63.4
23:50 Japan Retail sales (March) Y/Y -5.5% 0.1%

05:15
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.6600 (Apr 21 high)2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6550 (Apr 25 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6500 (session high)
Current price: $1.6462
Support 1 : $1.6430 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6170-$ 1,6600)
Support 2 : $1.6380 (50.0 % FIBO $1,6170-$ 1,6600, Apr 21 low)
Support 3 : $1.6330 (61.8% FIBO $1,6170-$1,6600)

Comments: cable remains under pressure and trades under $1.6500 mark. The nearest support $1.6435/30. ahead of $1.6380. The nearest resistance - around $1.6500. Above growth is possible to $1.6550.

 

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