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26.01.2011
20:43
Dow +25.24 at 12002.43, Nasdaq +23.40 at 2742.65, S&P +6.98 at 1298.16
Commodities finished higher across the board today, with livestock (+2.3%) and energy (+1.9%) leading the way. Sugar futures surged 4.1% to close at $0.3313/pound. March crude oil rallied for 1.3% to close at $87.33 per barrel. While this morning's inventory data ended up being a non-event, prices were able to rebound following a six session sell off. Since trading to two year highs, at $92.58, in early Jan, prices have dropped as much as 8.9%. Feb natural gas finished just above the flat line at $4.48 per MMBtu. Prices rallied off of lows throughout the afternoon to finish higher for the first time this week. Feb gold ended just above unchanged at $1330.00 per ounce, while March silver finished up 0.9% to $27.13 per ounce. Both metals are rallying in afterhours trade, following the release of the FOMC statement.
20:08
FED REACT: CIBC's Avery Shenfeld says the Fed statement offered little new news. "No market impact likely, although the curve has priced in some rate hikes for late 2011 that we see as highly unlikely," he says
19:22
FED: FOMC leaves all policies unch, affirms QE2 for $600b Tsys thru Q2 subject to review - to adjust as needed.
Keeps extended pd, keeps FF target 0 to 1/4%. Vote 11-0 with no dissents. Repeats progress towards dual mandates 'disappointingly slow.' FOMC says econ recov is continuing but at insufficient pace to bring about 'significant' improvement in labor mkt conditions. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Hsehold spending picked up late 2010 but remains constrained by high unemp, tight credit etc. Although commodity prices have risen, long-term infln expectations remain stable, underlying infln measures trending downward.
19:10
SOUTH KOREA: Overnight, the Bank of Korea released Q4 GDP data showing that the economy grow by 0.5% q-o-q in Q4, slowing modestly from the +0.7% expansion seen in Q3, but the eight consecutive quarter of growth since Q1 2009 nevertheless.
GDP in the final quarter of 2010 also rose 4.8% year-on-year, vs +4.4% in the previous quarter, the BOK said. Jan 13 the central bank unexpectedly (hike seen later in Q1) raised the base rate 25 bps to 2.75%, in a move seen designed to combat rising inflation. In his State of the Union address Tuesday, President Obama urged Congress to pass a South Korea free trade agreement "as soon as possible."
18:52
Dow +21.87 на 11999.06, Nasdaq +19.04 на 2738.29, S&P +5.82 на 1297.00
Рынок подходит к сессионным максимумам по мере приближения факта публикации протокола Комитета.
18:30
ECB: ECB Nowotny says markets are too euphoric about the idea of rescue mechanisms
18:19
FRANCE DATA: Jobseekers registered in December surprised on the upside again with a surge of 27,100 or 1.0%, surpassing the 21,300 rebound in November.
17:34
American focus: the dollar is under pressure

 

The dollar touched a two-month low against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reiterate the need to buy $600 billion in Treasuries to support the economy.


Sterling climbed from the lowest level against the dollar in almost two weeks as the Bank of England said two policy makers out of nine voted this month for an interest-rate increase. The euro rose earlier versus the dollar on speculation the currency region’s debt crisis will be contained and after a report showing a gauge of German inflation accelerated.

“Even though the U.S. is seeing some economic recovery gain traction, there’s still no real clue that the Fed is going to be departing from its quantitative-easing program,” said Carl Forcheski, a director on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York.

The Fed, which concludes a two-day policy meeting today, introduced the second round of its program of quantitative easing in November to keep borrowing costs low and shore up the economy. The central bank will hold its target lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent.

 

17:11
Dow +4.50 at 11981.43, Nasdaq +14.87 at 2734.11, S&P +4.50 at 1295.58

All three major indices are back in positive territory as the Nasdaq continues to lead the way with a 0.6% gain. Treasuries trade near their worst levels of the session with the FOMC interest rate decision just more than two hours away.

17:00
ECB STARK: Would act against inflation
  • Surveys show rising inflation
  • Misleading to give too much attention to core inflation
  • Important to know risk of too-loose-too-long policy
  • Commodity prices lifting inflation to likely around 2% or above
  • No indication medium-term inflation pressure
  • Monetary policy even more accommodative given economic developments
  • Will very precisely observe further developments
  • Growth increasingly self-sustaining, not reliant on stimulus
  • Сrisis not over
16:57
ECB STARK: Would act against inflation
  • Surveys show rising inflation
  • Misleading to give too much attention to core inflation
  • Important to know risk of too-loose-too-long policy
  • Commodity prices lifting inflation to likely around 2% or above
  • No indication medium-term inflation pressure
  • Monetary policy even more accommodative given economic developments
  • Will very precisely observe further developments
  • Growth increasingly self-sustaining, not reliant on stimulus
  • Сrisis not over
16:42
Techs on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.90           
Resistance 2:Y82.70       
   
Resistance 1:Y82.40            
Current price: Y82.30
Support 1:Y82.00          
Support 2:Y81.80            
Support 3:Y81.60          

Comments: In general, techs hasn't changed much with resistance is at session high on Y82.40. Stronger level is at Y82.70 (Jan 25 high), then - on Y83.90 (resistance line from Dec 15). Below Y82.00 (minor support) losses may widen to Y81.80 (Jan 19 lows), then - at Y81.60 (Jan 04 lows).

 

16:31
Techs on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9620                
Resistance 2: Chf0.9520 
               
Resistance 1: Chf0.9430               
Current price: Chf0.9432
Support 1: Chf0.9400                 
Support 2: Chf0.9300                  
Support 3: Chf0.9200     
         
Comments: Techs hasn't changed on dollar with rate failed to break under the Chf0.9400 support. Below losses may widen to Chf0.9300 (Dec 31 lows). Resistance is around Chf0.9430 (session high). Above resistance comes at Chf0.9520 (Jan 25 high)

 

16:15
Techs on GBP/USD

Resistance 3:$1.6240
Resistance 2:$1.6020
Resistance 1:$1.5900          
Current price: $1.5877
Support 1: $1.5840
Support 3: $1.5780
Support 3: $1.5680

Comments: Кate looks optimistic, holding near resistance at session high on $1.5900. Stronger level comes at $1.6020 (Tuesday's high), then - at $1.6240 (channel resistance line from Jan 07). Support is near hourly lows on $1.5840 with stronger level - at $1.5780 (channel line). Break under will target $1.5680.

16:05
Techs on EUR/USD

Resistance 3:$1.3880
Resistance 2:$1.3780
Resistance 1:$1.3720       
Current price: $1.3702
Support 1: $1.3650             
Support 2: $1.3570             
Support 3: $1.3540         
    

Comments: Rate tries to rise again with resistance is at session high on $1.3720. Break above will open the way to Nov 19 highs on $1.3780 and then - to $1.3880. Support is at channel line from Jan 11 at $1.3650 ($1.3640 - session low). Below support comes at Tuesday's lows on $1.3570 and then - at $1.3540 (Monday's lows).
15:31
US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 21) 4.836M
15:28
GBP/USD holds higher

GBP/USD pushes into the area of reported resistance between $1.5890/00, with stops above this area. A break here to open a move on toward $1.5915/20 ahead of stronger area between $1.5950/60.

15:01
US: Dec new home sales +17.5% to 329k
14:53
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut,
EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3550, $1.3500. 
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.15, Y83.00
CHF/JPY Y85.50
GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5800, $1.5850, $1.5920, $1.5980, $1.6000
AUD/USD $0.9880, $0.9830, $0.9800
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3350
14:44
GBP/USD holds steady

GBP/USD retreats from recovery highs of $1.5892 found support at $1.5845. Failure to back above $1.5881 (76.4% $1.5892/45) to push above this latter level seen keeping a slight bearish tone on the rate in the short term. A break below $1.5845 to expose stops, which if triggered to open a deeper move toward $1.5830 ahead of $1.5800. Offers remain in place above $1.5880, more between $1.5892/$1.5900 with stops placed on a break above.

14:27
Before the bell: Stocks set to open higher ahead of Fed

U.S. stocks were poised for a higher open Wednesday, as investors await the Federal Reserve's latest pronouncement on the nation's economy, new home sales data and corporate results.
Optimism sparked from President Obama's State of the Union address late Tuesday may also help push stocks higher.

Economy: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate near rock-bottom, when it concludes a two-day meeting Wednesday. A policy statement is expected around 19:15 GMT.
New home sales data will be released by the Commerce Department after the market opens. Economists expect sales rose to an annual rate of 300,000 in December from 290,000 in November, according to a consensus of estimates from Briefing.com.
Companies: Toyota (TM) announced it is recalling more than 1.5 million vehicles worldwide for issues that could result in fuel leakage. News of the recall sent shares of the automaker more than 1% lower in premarket trading.
Xerox (XRX, Fortune 500) logged earnings that fell from a year earlier, but were in line with expectations and announced its Chief Financial Officer Larry Zimmerman will retire next month. Shares of Xerox dropped more than 3% following the report.
Dow component United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) posted a quarterly profit that also slightly beat forecasts. Shares of the company edged about 1% lower.
Boeing (BA, Fortune 500)'s lower quarterly profit also met expectations, but its revenue and outlook disappointed - pushing shares of the company down 2.4%.
After the market close Wednesday, coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) is slated to report its quarterly earnings.

14:10
EUR/GBP weakens

EUR/GBP extends corrective pullback, off earlier highs of stg0.8673. Rate probes support area between stg0.8620/15. A break below here to allow for a deeper move toward stg0.8600 ahead of stg0.8585/80.

13:55
EUR/USD below $1.3680

EUR/USD probes under $1.3680, but move meets frsh demand. If rate can clear below $1.3670 ($1.3673 76.4% $1.3657/1.3723) to allow for a deeper move toward $1.3655/50.

13:38
EUR/USD holds above lows

Traders suggest French name joining the bid in the EUR/USD, along with semi-official buyer. This French name was conspicuous in the euro rally through $1.3650 Monday. rate currently holds around $1.3682, a bit higher earlier low near $1.3670.

13:19
EUR/GBP holds steady

EUR/GBP holding steady around stg0.8630, the rate having extended recent recovery highs to stg0.8672, meeting supply between stg0.8670/75. Cross corrected to stg0.8620. Demand remains in place to stg0.8620/15, a break to allow for a deeper move toward stg0.8585/80. Resistance remains in place to stg0.8675, a break to open a move toward stg0.8690/95. Earlier talk noted strong offers between stg0.8710/20.

13:16
European session

The pound rose against the dollar after Bank of England minutes showed Martin Weale became the second policy maker to call for higher interest rates.
The euro extended gains, appreciating to more than $1.37 for the second day.
The pledge by Japan and China to buy European debt is encouraging Asian funds to follow suit as agencies start selling bonds to finance Ireland’s bailout.
A 5 billion euro ($6.84 billion) sale yesterday drew 44.5 billion euros in orders as the Japanese government snapped up more than 20 percent of the issue. Asian investors bought about 38 percent and government agencies 43 percent, according to two people familiar with the transaction. State institutions took 38.5 percent of the securities at a similar issue on Jan. 5, according to the European Commission in Brussels.
“I heard these issues will be hot,” said Masataka Horii, one of four managers in Tokyo of the $33.9 billion Kokusai Global Sovereign Open Fund, Asia’s largest bond fund. “Investors may see the new bonds as safe because central banks are buying.” He declined to say whether he would bid.
Kokusai, Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. and Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. say they are interested in the AAA rated bonds sold to fund bailouts, even after investors sent the debt of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain tumbling. ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. said it is interested in buying European government debt. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her nation will do whatever is needed to save the 17-nation currency, while Europe’s economy is showing signs of improvement

The European Financial Stability Facility’s five-year 2.75 percent bonds were sold at 2.89 percent, or 6 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from the range of 8 basis points to 10 basis points where the bonds were initially marketed. German five-year debt with the same AAA rating has a yield spread of 44 basis points below the swap rate.

EUR/USD: posted high  at $1.3720, before eased back under thew figure. Offers seen at $1.3725/30. Further offers into $1.3740, with next barrier seen at $1.3750 and expected to draw sell interest ahead. Bids at $1.3680/55.
GBP/USD: spiked to $1.5890 from around $1.5825 as BOE MPC Minutes showed a 6-2-1 split, Weale joining Sentance in calling for a 25bp hike. Stops were triggered on the break of $1.5840, before the rate eased back to $1.5860. Resistance lies around $1.5885/90, ahead of $1.5910/20. Support remains at $1.5785/80, ahead of $1.5770 and $1.5750. Stops under $1.5740.
USD/JPY: edged higher after being repulsed from a move through Y82.00 to Y82.23. Offers lie ahead at Y82.30, Y82.70/75, Y83.00, Y83.15/20. Bids remain on approach to Y81.80/00, Y81.70, Y81.20/00.



US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of new home sales is expected to rise to 300,000 at an annual rate in December, still very low relative to a year earlier. This is followed at 1530GMT by weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data.

The much awaited FOMC decision is due at 1915GMT.

12:47
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3725/30, $1.3640, $1.3750, $1.3785
Bids: $1.3685/80, $1.3655/50, $1.3635/30, $1.3610/00

AUD/USD
Offers: $0.9990/00, $0.9998, $1.0120
Bids: $0.9960/70, $0.9920/30, $0.9900 (stops), $0.9880, $0.9830

EUR/JPY
Offers: Y112.75, Y112.90, Y114.00
Bids: Y112.15, Y111.90/80, Y111.60, Y111.30, Y110.75

USD/JPY
Offers: Y82.30, Y82.70/75, Y83.00, Y83.15/20
Bids: Y81.80/00, Y81.70 (stops), Y81.20/00

12:40
Oil rally extends to $86.70

Slow rally extends to $86.70 ahead of resistance $87.33 as oil continues to track stocks. Break through $87.33 targets $88.50.

12:22
IRELAND: government has won the first vote on the Financial Bill with 80 votes to 78.
11:52
USD/JPY tech comments

Edges higher after being repulsed from a move through Y82.00 to Y82.23, with some euro-yen demand assisting as euro-dollar took out the $1.3720 barrier. Cross rallied to Y112.74 before easing back with the euro-dollar to Y112.60. Offers lie ahead at Y82.30 and cross has tech resistance towards Y112.80/90.

11:06
EUR/USD above $1.3700

Extends highs to the barrier at $1.3720. Stops noted above, though further offers seen at $1.3725/30. Further offers into $1.3740, with next barrier seen at $1.3750 and expected to draw sell interest ahead.

10:54
CHINA GOVT: Local govts should further restrict home purchases.
10:13
GBP/USD after BOE MPC Minutes

Spiked to $1.5874 from around $1.5825 as BOE MPC Minutes showed a 6-2-1 split, Weale joining Sentance in calling for a 25bp hike. Stops were triggered on the break of $1.5840, with rate quickly easing back to $1.5830. Analysts may judge this move to join Sentance as a react to the increase in UK inflation, with MPC not seeing yesterday's poor GDP ahead of release.


Offers now seen from recent recovery high at $1.5870 through to earlier high at $1.5880, with talk of stops now placed on a break of $1.5885. Support seen back at $1.5785/80 ahead of $1.5770 and $1.5750. Stops remain below $1.5740.

09:41
BOE Minutes: 6 MPC Voted for Unchanged Policy; 2 for Rate Hike
  • Monetary Policy Committee members Martin Weale and Andrew Sentance voted for a 25 basis point rate hike, while expectations were only Sentance to have backed a hike;
  • Adam Posen again vote for an extra stg50 billion of QE.
09:34
BOE MPC MINUTES: 2 MPC Members Voted For Rate Hike

Monetary Policy Committee members Martin Weale and Andrew Sentance voted for a 25 basis point rate hike at the MPC's January meeting, while expectations were only Sentance to have backed a hike. Adam Posen again vote for an extra stg50 billion of QE.

09:30
BOE MPC votes 6:2:1 to leave Bank rate & asset purchases unchanged at January MPC meeting.
09:23
European shares rose on Wednesday on improving sentiment

European shares rose on Wednesday on improving sentiment about the global economic recovery after U.S. President Barack Obama proposed to cut corporate tax rates, while BG Group gained on a new oil find.

08:53
Asian session:

The euro traded near a two-month high against the dollar before a report that economists said will show European confidence in the region’s outlook improved for an eighth month.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro region increased to 106.7 in January from 106.2 the previous month, according to a survey before the European Commission report tomorrow.
The dollar declined toward a one-week low against the yen as President Barack Obama called for a freeze on non-security discretionary spending.
Losses in the dollar were tempered on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal the world’s largest economy is improving. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its meeting today, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Fed has kept its benchmark at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
The pound was close to a two-week low versus the dollar before a U.K. report forecast to show home- loan approvals dropped, giving the central bank more reason to keep interest rates low.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained in the field of the high reached yesterday.
GBP/USD:  the pair it was consolidated within the limits of $1.5775-$ 1.5835.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82.00.

UK data at 0930GMT includes the minutes of this month's MPC meeting as well as BBA Mortgage Approvals data for December. Speaking this week, MPC member Sentance made it clear he was sticking with his view that rates should be raised, while Adam Posen, in an interview last week, signaled that he would also maintain his opposed view that QE should be raised, so the question appears to be if the recent 1-7-1 voting pattern changes in light of the higher-than-expected CPI data. 
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of new home sales is expected to rise to 300,000 at an annual rate in December, still very low relative to a year earlier. This is followed at 1530GMT by weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data.
The much awaited FOMC decision is due at 1915GMT. 

08:44
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3550, $1.3500. 
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.15, Y83.00
CHF/JPY Y85.50
GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5800, $1.5850, $1.5920, $1.5980, $1.6000
AUD/USD $0.9880, $0.9830, $0.9800
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3350

08:21
Forex: Tuesday's review

The dollar dropped against the yen as Treasury yields fell on expectations President Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze on non-security spending.
Obama will outline the freeze in U.S. spending in the State of the Union address tonight in Washington, according to a person familiar with the situation.
Sterling tumbled on Tuesday as a surprise contraction in fourth-quarter UK GDP raised fears over a double-dip recession and doused expectations that the Bank of England would raise interest rates to fight inflationary pressures in the British economy.
Figures showed the UK economy shrunk 0.5% in the last three months of 2010, far worse than expectations for growth of 0.5%.
Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said it was a stunningly bad outcome, far worse than even the most pessimistic of forecasts. He said even allowing for a very substantial hit to economic activity from December’s severe weather, the news was extremely disappointing and worrying.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.3700.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session loss of pound against dollar have made about 170 points.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y82.00. 

UK data at 0930GMT includes the minutes of this month's MPC meeting as well as BBA Mortgage Approvals data for December. Speaking this week, MPC member Sentance made it clear he was sticking with his view that rates should be raised, while Adam Posen, in an interview last week, signaled that he would also maintain his opposed view that QE should be raised, so the question appears to be if the recent 1-7-1 voting pattern changes in light of the higher-than-expected CPI data. 
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of new home sales is expected to rise to 300,000 at an annual rate in December, still very low relative to a year earlier. This is followed at 1530GMT by weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data.
The much awaited FOMC decision is due at 1915GMT. 

07:30
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83,90 (resistance line from Dec 15)
Resistance 2:Y82,70 (Jan 25 high)
Resistance 1:Y82,30 (session hgh)
Current price: Y82.01
Support 1:Y82.00 (session low, Jan 25 low)
Support 2:Y81.80 (Jan 19 low)
Support 3:Y81.60 (Jan 4 low)
Comments: the pair is under pressure. The nearest support - Y82,00. Below losses are possible to Y81.80. The nearest resistance - Y82,30. Above growth is possible to Y82.70. 
                                                              

07:20
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9620 (Jan 24 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9520 (Jan 25 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9430 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9410
Support 1: Chf0.9400 (Jan 25 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9300 (Dec 31 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9200 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached low. The nearest support Chf0,9400. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9300. The nearest resistance Chf0,9430. Above is located  Chf0.9520. 

07:07
GERMANY DATA: Import prices in December rising 2.3% on the month and 12.0% on the year
06:49
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6010 (around of Jan 20-25 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5920 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5835 (session high)
Current price: $1.5811
Support 1 : $1.5775 (session low)
Support 3 : $1.5750 (Jan 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.5650 (61.8 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6060)
Comments: the pair is consolidated after yesterday's falling. The nearest support - $1,5775. Below  decrease is possible to $1.5750. The nearest resistance - $1,5835. Above growth  is possible to $1,5920. 

06:20
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.3790 (Nov 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3740 (61.8 % FIBO $1.4275-$ 1.2870)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3700 (session high)
Current price: $1.3688
Support 1 : $1.3660 (support line from Jan 11)
Support 2 : $1.3570 (Jan 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.3540 (Jan 24 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest support - $1,3660. Below decrease is possible to $1.3570. The nearest resistance - $1,3700. Above growth is possible to $1,3740. 

 

06:05
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Jan'26'2011:

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report (January)  
07:00 Germany Import prices (December) 1.3% 1.2%
07:00 Germany Import prices (December) Y/Y 10.8% 10.0%
07:00 Germany Import prices excluding oil (December) Y/Y - 8.5%
09:30 UK BoE meeting minutes (12-13.01)  
15:00 USA New home sales (December) 297K 290K
19:15 USA FOMC meeting announcement 0.00-0.25% 0.00-0.25%
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ meeting announcement 3.00% 3.00%
23:50 Japan Trade balance (December) unadjusted, trln 0.465 0.163

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