CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 25-07-2014

European stocks fell the most in a week, extending losses in the final half hour of trading, as companies including LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA and Statoil ASA posted earnings that missed forecasts.

German consumer confidence will increase in August to its highest level since December 2006, according to forecasts from GfK SE, a Nuremberg-based market research company. A separate report from the Ifo institute showed business confidence in Europe's largest economy slipped in July more than economists had forecast, for its third straight monthly decline.

National benchmark indexes declined in 13 of the 18 western-European markets. France's CAC 40 slid 1.8 percent, Germany's DAX slipped 1.5 percent, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 fell 0.4 percent.

LVMH lost 6.8 percent to 131.65 euros after saying first-half profit from recurring operations fell 5 percent to 2.58 billion euros. Analysts had predicted 2.76 billion euros. Asian demand weakened in the second quarter, led by slower Chinese spending, Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony said on a conference call. He also cited political unrest in Hong Kong and sales tax in Japan, and said the disappearance of a Malaysian passenger jet affected sales in Singapore and Thailand.

Christian Dior SA dropped 6.3 percent to 136.65 euros, Kering lost 4.9 percent to 151.50 euros, and Cie. Financiere Richemont SA declined 2.3 percent to 88.20 Swiss francs. A gauge of personal and household goods companies posted the third-worst performance of the 19 industries on the Stoxx 600.

Statoil fell 2.5 percent to 184 kroner. Norway's biggest energy company said adjusted earnings after tax dropped to 9.9 billion kroner ($1.6 billion) in the second quarter from 11.3 billion kroner a year earlier. That missed the 10.9 billion-krone average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Air France-KLM advanced 2.6 percent to 8.85 euros. The airline group posted operating profit of 238 million euros for the second quarter, up from 84 million euros a year earlier as it benefited from cost cuts, and announced another five-year plan to drive down expenses. That beat the median estimate of analysts for 190 million euros.

RBS rallied 11 percent to 364.2 pence after saying in an advance statement that first-half pretax profit increased to 2.65 billion pounds ($4.5 billion) from 1.37 billion pounds a year earlier. Operating profit probably jumped to 2.6 billion pounds from 708 million pounds, the lender said.

CaixaBank SA climbed 3.2 percent to 4.54 euros. The Spanish lender said second-quarter net income rose to 153 million euros from 73 million euros a year earlier, beating the 110.8 million-euro average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Charges for impaired assets dropped to 664 million euros from 925 million euros a year earlier, the bank said.

West Texas Intermediate headed for the third weekly decline this month amid speculation that rising U.S. gasoline stockpiles signal reduced demand in the world's biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

Futures declined as much has 0.5 percent in New York, and were poised for a weekly loss of 1.4 percent. Gasoline inventories climbed to the highest level since March, while crude supplies dropped for a fourth week, Energy Information Administration data showed on July 23. President Barack Obama said he expects the downing of the Malaysian Air jet in Ukraine to push European nations toward tougher sanctions against Russia.

"U.S. refineries are clearly turning more crude oil into refined petroleum products at present than is actually needed," Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail. "The build in gasoline inventories significantly exceeded expectations. Besides the increase in production, this was also due to weaker demand."

WTI for September delivery fell as much as 51 cents to $101.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded for $101.66 at 1:11 p.m. London time. The contract slid $1.05 to $102.07 yesterday, the lowest close since July 16. The volume of all futures traded was 10 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for September settlement was 11 cents higher at $107.18 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.48 to WTI on ICE, compared with $5.29 at the end of last week.

Gold prices rise slightly while in the U.S. orders for durable goods rose more than forecast.

Orders for durable goods has increased markedly in the last month, beating forecasts with experts. Last improvement - a sign that increased investment in enterprises can contribute to U.S. economic growth in the second half of the year.

Ministry of Commerce announced that the seasonally adjusted demand for durable goods rose in June by 0.7%, which followed a 1.0% decline in the previous month, which was revised from -0.9%. Add that many experts expect more moderate growth - 0.4%.

Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods orders rose 0.8%, while with the exception of the defense industry, the rate increased by 0.7%.

We also learned that the leading indicator of business investment - orders for non-defense capital goods, except aircraft - increased in June by 1.4%.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1297.20 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3500-10

USD/JPY Y100.85, Y101.50-55, Y101.65-75, Y101.80-90

GBP/USD $1.7000, $1.7150

EUR/GBP Stg0.7800, stg0.8100

AUD/USD $0.9375, $0.9425, $0.9445

NZD/USD $0.8610, $0.8720

USD/CAD C$1.0695, C$1.0720, C$1.0800

U.S. stock-index futures fell as earnings at Amazon.com Inc and Visa Inc. missed estimates.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,457.87 +173.45 +1.13%

Hang Seng 24,216.01 +74.51 +0.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,126.61 +21.55 +1.02%

FTSE 6,812.78 -8.68 -0.13%

CAC 4,370.68 -39.97 -0.91%

DAX 9,739.15 -54.91 -0.56%

Crude oil $101.54 (-0.55%)

Gold $1295.20 (+0.34%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Amazon.com (AMZN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley & Co.

Amazon.com (AMZN) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

General Motors (GM) downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Credit Agricole

Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC Securities

Exxon Mobil (XOM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

Other:

Twitter (TWTR) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Raymond James

Starbucks (SBUX) target raised to $88 from $84 at Jefferies

Data

1:00 New Zealand Business Confidence Index circles from ANZ July 42.8 39.7

06:00 Germany GfK consumer confidence in August from 8.9 8.9 9.0

08:00 EU M3 Money Supply y / y in June +1.0% +1.1% +1.5%

8:00 Eurozone private sector lending, y / y in June -2.0% -1.8% -1.0%

8:00 Germany IFO business climate index 109.7 109.6 108.0 July

8:00 The current conditions index Germany IFO July 114.8 112.9

8:00 Germany IFO Expectations Index 104.8 103.4 July

08:30 UK GDP q / q (preliminary data) II m +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 UK GDP y / y (preliminary data) II m +3.0% +3.1% +3.1%

Rate of the euro fell sharply against the dollar was under pressure the German data. The findings, published institute Ifo, showed that the July level of business confidence in Germany fell again, thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts and fixing the third consecutive monthly deterioration. According to the report, the business climate index fell in July to a level of 108.0 points compared to 109.7 points last month, and economists' expectations at the level of 109.6 points. With regard to the current index, that he fell this month to the level of 112.9 points, which was also well below economists' expectations of 114.5 points. Recall that in June, the index stood at 114.8 points. We also learned that the expectations index deteriorated to 104.5 points, slightly exceeding the forecasts of experts 104.4 points. Last month, the value of this index was 104.8 points.

Report had little impact on the euro area, which indicated that money supply growth accelerated again in June, while lending to the private sector continued to fall. This was announced by the European Central Bank. According to the data, the results of last month monetary aggregate M3 increased by 1.5 percent year on year, which was significantly faster than the growth of 1 per cent recorded in May. Add that many experts had expected an increase of this index by 1.2 percent. While growth compared to May was markedly below the reference value of 4.5%, the ECB considers that in accordance with its medium-term in order to maintain the inflation rate "below 2%".

The pound has fallen significantly against the U.S. currency, updating the yesterday's low, but then was able to recover all the lost ground. Influenced the course of trade data, which showed that in the second quarter gross domestic product of Britain increased by 0.8 percent, which was in accordance with the result of the first quarter and economists' expectations. Compared to the second quarter last year, the economy grew by 3.1 percent, the highest rates since late 2007. This means that overall economic growth was 0.2 percent more than in the first quarter of 2008, when it was recorded the previous peak. We add that the annual growth also coincided with the estimates of experts, and accelerated compared with the previous quarter - while GDP grew by 3.0 percent. The Office for National Statistics also reported that the head of the growth in the second quarter was again the service sector, which expanded by 1.0 percent compared with the previous three months, and fixing the fastest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2012.

The yen fell against the dollar as market participants expect today's publication of data on the volume of sales of durable goods from the U.S. Commerce Department. According to the median forecast of economists in June could increase by 0.4%, after falling in the previous month. In addition, yesterday was presented positive data on employment. Number of new applications for unemployment benefits decreased significantly last week, reaching minimum values ​​at the same time for 8.5 years, providing more evidence in favor of improving the situation on the labor market.

We add that the demand for yen was limited after the publication of weak report on exports from Japan and negative data on the consumer price index. Value measure of inflation, adjusted for the effect of increasing the sales tax was lower than in the previous reporting month: +1.6% in June against 1.7% in May.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3440

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6959, but then went back up to $ 1.6985

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.93

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of orders for durable goods in June. At 13:00 GMT Belgium present index business sentiment in July.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3530

Bids $1.3440, $1.3400, $1.3360, $1.3300

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115, $1.7095, $1.7050

Bids $1.6965, $1.6950, $1.6920

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9470

Bids $0.9380, $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.50

Bids Y136.35, Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.35, Y102.20, Y102.00

Bids Y101.50, Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7940

Bids stg0.7885/80, stg0.7870, stg0.7850, stg0.7800

European stock indexes fell slightly, but still showing growth in the week, as investors assess corporate reporting and data for Germany.

Among the European companies that reported, 40 percent fell short of analysts' forecasts compared to 28 percent of reported U.S. companies.

"Overall sentiment remains neutral as investors continue to prefer U.S. stocks European as quarterly results of U.S. companies largely exceeded expectations," - said a senior trader at Peregrine & Black Marcus Hubert.

As for the report on Germany, he showed that the July level of business confidence in Germany from the institute Ifo, fell again, thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts and fixing the third consecutive monthly deterioration. According to the report, the business climate index fell in July to a level of 108.0 points compared to 109.7 points last month, and economists' expectations at the level of 109.6 points. With regard to the current index, that he fell this month to the level of 112.9 points, which was also well below economists' expectations of 114.5 points. Recall that in June, the index stood at 114.8 points. We also learned that the expectations index deteriorated to 104.5 points, slightly exceeding the forecasts of experts 104.4 points. Last month, the value of this index was 104.8 points.

LVMH shares fell 7.0 percent because sales and profits in the second quarter fell short of analysts' forecasts due to the downturn in demand for its products in China. Richemont shares fell 2.1 percent, Burberry - 1.9 percent and Kering - by 3.3 percent.

Lafarge SA shares rose 0.5%. French cement maker slightly increased net profit in the second quarter due to cost-cutting, which allowed to neutralize the negative effects of exchange rate differences. Lafarge net profit in the second quarter rose by 2% - up to 205 million euros, sales fell by 5% - up to 3.37 billion euros. Analysts polled by FactSet Research, on average forecast net profit of the company at 244 million euros on sales of 3.43 billion euros.

Paper Danone SA - French yogurt maker - down by 0.3%. Operating profit in the first half amounted to 1.18 billion euros, confounding the average market forecast at 1.21 billion euros.

The value of shares Air France-KLM Group - French airline - jumped by 5.2%, due to the sharp reduction in net loss in the second quarter.

The cost of securities Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rose by 14%. British bank doubled its pre-tax profit in the first half of 2014 and intends this year to meet the target of cutting costs by 1 billion pounds ($ 1.7 billion). During the session of the increase in prices of securities RBS is 15%.

Statoil ASA shares fell 2.9 percent. The biggest energy company in Norway said that the adjusted profit after tax fell to 9.9 billion kronor in the second quarter from 11.3 billion kronor a year earlier. Experts expected profit at 10.9 billion crowns.

At the moment:

FTSE 100 6,819.98 -1.48 -0.02%

CAC 40 4,383.8 -26.85 -0.61%

DAX 9,761.79 -32.27 -0.33%

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3500-10

USD/JPY Y100.85, Y101.50-55, Y101.65-75, Y101.80-90

GBP/USD $1.7000, $1.7150

EUR/GBP Stg0.7800, stg0.8100

AUD/USD $0.9375, $0.9425, $0.9445

NZD/USD $0.8610, $0.8720

USD/CAD C$1.0695, C$1.0720, C$1.0800

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3570 (1241)

$1.3537 (723)

$1.3495 (109)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3467

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3445 (2590)

$1.3428 (6843)

$1.3403 (3694)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 27946 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3905);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34582 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (6843);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 24

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7300 (1309)

$1.7201 (1658)

$1.7102 (2094)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6990

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6897 (2023)

$1.6799 (2285)

$1.6700 (1097)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16755 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2424);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 25555 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (3012);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.53 versus 1.43 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 24

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July 42.8 39.7

The dollar headed for a second weekly gain versus the euro before a U.S. government report that economists said will show durable goods orders rebounded in June, adding to signs the economy is gathering momentum. Bookings for U.S. durable goods gained 0.5 percent in June after dropping 0.9 percent the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today's Commerce Department report. Economists predict data next week will show the economy expanded an annual 2.9 percent in the second quarter, reversing a contraction in the previous three months, while employers added more than 200,000 jobs in June for an sixth month.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to its highest in a month yesterday before reports next week that economists said will show the world's biggest economy expanded in the second quarter and employers boosted payrolls.

The pound was set for a third week of losses before gross domestic product data due today. Britain's economy expanded 0.8 percent in the second quarter, matching the pace of the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before today's data.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3455-65

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.7030-40

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y101.50-60

Focus today will turn to the first reading of UK Q2 GDP data at 0830GMT, median 0.8% Q/Q, 3.10% y/y. Ahead of this we have Germany Ifo at 0800GMT with market waiting to see if Thursday's strong flash PMI release is reflected in this data.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 102.05 -0.02%

Gold 1,292.80 +0.15%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,284.42 -44.14 -0.29%

Hang Seng 24,141.5 +169.63 +0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,105.06 +26.57 +1.28%

FTSE 100 6,821.46 +23.31 +0.34%

CAC 40 4,410.65 +34.33 +0.78%

Xetra DAX 9,794.06 +40.50 +0.42%

S&P 500 1,987.98 +0.97 +0.05%

NASDAQ 4,472.11 -1.59 -0.04%

Dow Jones 17,083.8 -2.83 -0.02%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3462 +0,01%

GBP/USD $1,6985 -0,31%

USD/CHF Chf0,9024 +0,02%

USD/JPY Y101,80 +0,26%

EUR/JPY Y137,05 +0,26%

GBP/JPY Y172,91 -0,05%

AUD/USD $0,9414 -0,29%

NZD/USD $0,8564 -0,64%

USD/CAD C$1,0742 +0,16%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July 42.8

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey August 8.9 8.9

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y June +1.0% +1.1%

08:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y June -2.0% -1.8%

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate July 109.7 109.6

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment July 114.8

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations July 104.8

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter II +3.0% +3.1%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders June -1.0% Revised From -0.9% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation June 0.0% Revised From -0.1% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense June +0.6%

13:00 Belgium Business Climate July -6.2 -6.5