CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 25-06-2014

Nikkei 15,266.61 -109.63 -0.7%

Hang Seng 22,866.7 -13.94 -0.1%

Shanghai Composite 2,025.5 -8.43 -0.4%

S&P 1,959.53 +9.55 +0.49%

NASDAQ 4,379.76 +29.40 +0.68%

Dow 16,867.51 +49.38 +0.29%

FTSE 1,372.04 -14.71 -1.06%

CAC 4,460.6 -57.74 -1.28%

DAX 9,867.75 -70.33 -0.71%

EUR/USD $1,3631 +0,21%

GBP/USD $1,6981 -0,01%

USD/CHF Chf0,8928 -0,12%

USD/JPY Y101,83 -0,13%

EUR/JPY Y138,79 +0,07%

GBP/JPY Y172,90 -0,14%

AUD/USD $0,9401 +0,37%

NZD/USD $0,8730 +0,70%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index June +0.7% +0.7%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y June +11.1%

07:30 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin Quarter II

09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Financial Stability Report

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims June 312 314

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m May +0.3% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending June -0.1% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m May +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y May +1.4%

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln May 534 250

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence June 0 2

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate May 3.6% 3.6%

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y May -4.6% -1.9%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y June +3.1%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y June +2.8% +2.8%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y May +3.4%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y May +3.2% +3.4%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y May -4.3% -1.9%

Stock indices traded lower due to concerns over escalating violence in Iraq. Investors monitor closely the situation in Iraq because increasing oil prices could have a negative impact on a global economy.

Concerns over violence in Ukraine also weighed on stock markets.

Market research group Gfk released its consumer climate index for Germany. The consumer climate index is expected to increase to 8.9 in July from 8.6 in June. June's figure was revised up from 8.5. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 8.6.

The Confederation of Business Industry released retail sales for the U.K. The CBI retail sales volume balance dropped to +4 in June from +16 in May. That was the lowest level since November 2013. Analysts had expected an increase to +25.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,733.62 -53.45 -0.79%

DAX 9,867.75 -70.33 -0.71%

CAC 40 4,460.6 -57.74 -1.28%

West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $106 a barrel after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly increased. Brent dropped for the third time in four days as Iraq pledged to increase production and exports.

Crude supplies rose 1.74 million barrels to 388.1 million last week, the Energy Information Administration said. A 1.7 million-barrel decline was projected, according to the median of eight responses in a Bloomberg survey. Iraqi output has been unaffected by fighting and the country plans to increase exports next month, Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said in an interview in Baghdad.

WTI for August delivery rose 1 cent to $106.04 a barrel at 10:43 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures traded at $105.85 before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. The volume of all futures traded was 51 percent higher than the 100-day average.

Brent for August settlement declined 94 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $113.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Trading volume was 35 percent above the 100-day average.

The European benchmark crude traded at a $7.48 premium to Brent, down from $8.43 yesterday.

Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI traded on Nymex, rose 416,000 barrels to 21.8 million in the week ended June 20, the EIA said.

The U.S. dollar declined against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders and gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. durable goods orders declined 1.0% in May, missing expectations for a 0.1% fall, after a 0.6% fall in April. The U.S. core durable goods orders (excluding transportation) decreased 0.1% in May, missing expectations for a 0.3% gain, after 0.3% rise in April.

The U.S. durable goods orders excluding defence increased 0.6% May, after a 0.8% decline in April.

The U.S. GDP dropped 2.9% in the first quarter, missing expectations for a 1.7% decline, after a 1.0% decline the previous quarter.

The euro increased against the U.S. dollar. The Gfk consumer climate index is expected to increase to 8.9 in July from 8.6 in June. June's figure was revised up from 8.5. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 8.6.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The Confederation of Business Industry released retail sales for the U.K. The CBI retail sales volume balance dropped to +4 in June from +16 in May. That was the lowest level since November 2013. Analysts had expected an increase to +25.

The Swiss franc traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The UBS consumption indicator for Switzerland climbed to 1.77 points in May from a revised 1.68 points in April.

The New Zealand dollar surged against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The corporate service price index (CSPI) in Japan increased 3.6% in May, exceeding expectations for a 3.2% gain, after a 3.4% rise in April.

Gold prices recovered after the incurred losses earlier in the session amid falling dollar caused by weak data on U.S. GDP.

The U.S. economy has decreased substantially in the first quarter, almost three times exceeding the initial estimates, and fixing the steepest decline since the end of the recession.

Ministry of Commerce announced the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product fell by 2.9% in the first three months of this year. It was the fastest rate of decline since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy contracted by 5.9%. Recall that according to early estimates a reduction in the 1st quarter was at 1.0%.

Experts expect that GDP will decline substantially less - 1.7%.

It is worth noting that such a review has been associated with new data on trade, consumer spending and weaker export figure than previously thought.

Residential investment - including the costs of housing construction, landscaping and commission brokers - fell by 4.2% in the first quarter (revised from - 5%). We add that the rebound in the housing market, which is an important factor of economic growth slowed at the end of 2013 against the backdrop of the anomalous temperature and growth in mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, we note that the decline in exports in the first quarter was revised to 8.9% from 6.0% as Europe's economic recovery remains weak, while growth in fast-growing emerging markets like China and Brazil, has slowed.

By GDP also pressured stocks rise - it has reduced growth by 1.7 percentage points (previously reported decline of 1.6%).

Baseline GDP, which excludes changes in inventories declined in the first quarter by 1.3% (revised from 0.6%).

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1322.0 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3530-40, $1.3550, $1.3560, $1.3600, $1.3620, $1.3625, $1.3630, $1.3650, E1.3655

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.70, Y102.00, Y102.10-20

GBP/USD $1.6975, $1.7030

USD/CHF Chf0.8945

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

AUD/USD $0.9400

U.S. stock futures fell as data showed the U.S. economy contracted more than forecast in the first quarter and crises in the Middle East and Ukraine deepened.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,266.61 -109.63 -0.71%

Hang Seng 22,866.7 -13.94 -0.06%

Shanghai Composite 2,025.5 -8.43 -0.41%

FTSE 6,726.21 -60.86 -0.90%

CAC 4,464.57 -53.77 -1.19%

DAX 9,864.77 -73.31 -0.74%

Crude oil $106.17 (+0.11%)

Gold $1317.50 (-0.30%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

03:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey July 8.5 8.6 8.9

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator May 1.72 1.77

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance June 16 25 4

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. durable goods orders and gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. durable goods orders should decline 0.1% in May, after a 0.6% fall in April.

The U.S. GDP should drop 1.7% in the first quarter, after a 1.0% decline the previous quarter.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The Gfk consumer climate index is expected to increase to 8.9 in July from 8.6 in June. June's figure was revised up from 8.5. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 8.6.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to yesterday's Bank of England Governor Mark Carney comments. He said that the interest rate hike will be driven by the U.K. economic data. He also said that wages in the U.K. are softer than expected by the BoE. These comments by Mark Carney could mean there is no need to hike interest rate.

The Confederation of Business Industry released retail sales for the U.K. The CBI retail sales volume balance dropped to +4 in June from +16 in May. That was the lowest level since November 2013. Analysts had expected an increase to +25.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The UBS consumption indicator for Switzerland climbed to 1.77 points in May from a revised 1.68 points in April.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.6951

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders May -0.6% -0.1%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation May +0.3% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense May -0.8%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q (Finally) Quarter I +1.3% +1.3%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q (Finally) Quarter I +3.1% +3.1%

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter I -1.0% -1.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3695/00, $1.3688, $1.3670/80, $1.3645

Bids $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3535, $1.3515/10

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7110/20, $1.7090, $1.7080/85, $1.7062

Bids $1.6950, $1.6920, $1.6910/00, $1.6845

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9545, $0.9500, $0.9460, $0.9450, $0.9430

Bids $0.9320, $0.9300, $0.9255, $0.9230

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.00, Y139.50, Y139.20, Y139.00

Bids Y138.40, Y138.20, Y138.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.80, Y102.65, Y102.40, Y102.20

Bids Y101.70, Y101.50, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8080, stg0.8050, stg0.8035/40

Bids stg0.7950, stg0.7900

Stock indices declined due to escalating violence in the Middle East. Investors monitor closely the situation in Iraq because increasing oil prices could have a negative impact on a global economy.

Market research group Gfk released its consumer climate index for Germany. The consumer climate index is expected to increase to 8.9 in July from 8.6 in June. June's figure was revised up from 8.5. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 8.6.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,745.6 -41.47 -0.61%

DAX 9,901.52 -36.56 -0.37%

CAC 40 4,490.08 -28.26 -0.63%

EUR/USD $1.3530-40, $1.3550, $1.3560, $1.3600, $1.3620, $1.3625, $1.3630, $1.3650, E1.3655

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.70, Y102.00, Y102.10-20

GBP/USD $1.6975, $1.7030

USD/CHF Chf0.8945

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

AUD/USD $0.9400

Asian stock traded lower due to escalating violence in Iraq. Investors monitor closely the situation in Iraq because increasing oil prices could have a negative impact on a global economy.

The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 declined due to reactions to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's reform plan. His reform plan focuses to encourage Japanese companies to invest more and create more jobs. The government plans to cut the corporate tax rate and to boost the role of working women due to the shrinking workforce in Japan.

The corporate service price index (CSPI) in Japan increased 3.6% in May, exceeding expectations for a 3.2% gain, after a 3.4% rise in April.

Concerns over the health of China's economy also weighed on stock indices in China and Hong Kong.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225 15,266.61 -109.63 -0.71%

Hang Seng 22,866.7 -13.94 -0.06%

Shanghai Composite 2,025.5 -8.43 -0.41%

Economic calendar (GMT0):

03:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey July 8.5 8.6 8.9

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator May 1.72 1.77

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was supported by the yesterday's strong U.S. economic data. The CBI consumer confidence index climbed to 85.2 in June from a reading of 82.2 in May. That was the highest level since January 2008.

New home sales in the U.S. jumped 18.6% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units. That was the highest level since May 2008.

The New Zealand dollar traded slightly higher against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Australia. The U.S. currency was supported by the yesterday's strong U.S. economic data.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The corporate service price index (CSPI) in Japan increased 3.6% in May, exceeding expectations for a 3.2% gain, after a 3.4% rise in April.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.6959

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance June 16 25

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders May -0.6% -0.1%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation May +0.3% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense May -0.8%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q (Finally) Quarter I +1.3% +1.3%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q (Finally) Quarter I +3.1% +3.1%

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter I -1.0% -1.7%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3679 (2115)

$1.3652 (3464)

$1.3633 (1836)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3607

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3577 (1009)

$1.3554 (3746)

$1.3523 (5109)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 3 is 30694 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3999);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 3 is 41549 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (5341);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.35 versus 1.38 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 24

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7200 (2064)

$1.7101 (2242)

$1.7004 (2353)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6972

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6897 (1996)

$1.6799 (1698)

$1.6700 (2412)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 3 is 20180 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7100 (2353);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 3 is 26082 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2412);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.28 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 24

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.