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Dow +44.54 at 12400.75, Nasdaq +17.50 at 2763.66, S&P +5.18 at 1321.46


Without any clear cause or catalyst, the stock market has turned upward to come in touch with the session high. Although natural resource plays like energy (+1.6%) and materials (+1.6%) continue to provide the most leadership, tech stocks (+0.6%) are chipping in.
As a group, tech stocks have been lagging resource-plays this session. However, since the group makes up the largest sector by market weight, their gains come with added influence. Among the strongest movers in the space, Apple (AAPL 337.09, +4.90) is up about 1.5% after a favorable analyst report was released this morning. In contrast, Cisco (CSCO 16.13, -0.14) continues to encounter selling pressure following its tempered guidance.

American focus:

The Swiss franc climbed against all of its 16 most-traded peers, reaching a record versus the euro, on concern Greece’s debt crisis threatens the region’s economic recovery as European leaders struggle to resolve it.
The euro erased losses against the dollar as stocks rallied. The pound advanced after the U.K.’s gross domestic product rose in the first quarter. The franc climbed versus Europe’s shared currency for a fourth day, the longest winning streak in a month.
The franc also strengthened as investors speculated the record exchange rate against the euro won’t prevent Switzerland’s central bank from raising interest rates as the economy expands. Jan-Egbert Sturm, head of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, told state television the central bank may increase borrowing costs from near zero as soon as next month.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a report today the Swiss central bank should start raising borrowing costs this year to counter emerging inflationary pressures.
“Equities have turned positive, and the euro is benefiting from it,” said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader at Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York. “The equity market is moving up a little bit despite the numbers that came out with durable goods.”
U.S. durable goods orders decreased 3.6 percent following a 4.1 percent jump in March, dropping the most in six months, Commerce Department data showed today.
The euro fell against the franc as European officials disagreed over how to resolve the debt crisis.
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told the French newspaper Les Echos in an interview Greek debt maturities could be extended on a voluntary basis.
European Central Bank Executive Board Member Juergen Stark said Greece, Ireland and Portugal need a “drastic change” in economic policy. Restructuring Greece’s debt “cannot, must not be the solution,” Stark said in a speech in Berlin. Euro-area leaders should “please consider the consequences” of a debt restructuring, Stark said.

July NYMEX crude extending gains, is +$2 at $101.59
ECB: Weidmann says mon pol remains expansive, must be normalized
Dow -8.10 at 12348.11, Nasdaq +5.77 at 2751.93, S&P -0.57 at 1315.71

The dollar index is showing modest strength this morning, but this isn't doing much to weaken the commodity complex.
However, crude oil has been in the red all morning and was lower ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 616K versus consensus of a draw of 1700K, crude oil sold off to $99.00 and is now down 0.4% at $99.16/barrel.
Natural gas was trending higher this morning until its recent pullback. However, it's pulled back a few cents, but remains in positive territory at $4.41, up +0.4%.
Precious metals have been higher all morning with notable strength in silver, which began posting strong gains in the overnight session. About 40 minutes ago, silver hit session highs of $37.49/oz. and remains near those session highs of $37.34/oz. Gold is up 0.3% at $1527.30/oz.

Deutche Bank has changed its BoE rate call

Deutche Bank has changed its BoE rate call following today's UK Q1 GDP data release and pushed back its view of the first hike until November and assuming 25bps per quarter thereafter. "Our new forecast is therefore for rates at 0.75% by end-2011 and 1.75% by end-2012 (down from our original forecast of 1.00% and 2.50%)", wrote George Buckley at DB.

Dow -21.49 at 12334.72, Nasdaq +3.35 at 2749.21, S&P -2.06 at 1314.22

Despite an early effort to quickly climb back to the flat line, stocks have failed to generate enough momentum to extend the move into higher ground. The market's inability to generate a gain has left it to trade mixed at the neutral line.
Meanwhile, the dollar has slowly reclaimed some of its overnight gain. It now leads a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.2%. Most of that is because the euro has fallen 0.4% to $1.403, which puts it back near the two-month low that it set this past Monday.

US, May 17 wk EIA oil data: crude stocks +0.6m bbl to 370.9m bbl.
GBP/USD tries to extend rebound

Struggles to hold onto extended gains, the pullback off leveraged driven highs of $1.6260 extending to $1.6235.  Bids remain to $1.6210, stops on break of $1.6205. Resistance remains into $1.6260/70, a break to expose $1.6300/10.

Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to open little changed Wednesday, as investors remain cautious amid a host of economic uncertainties.
Economy: New orders for long-lasting goods fell more than expected in April, the Commerce Department said. Durable goods orders fell 3.6% last month, versus a forecasted 2% decline.
Companies: Shares of AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) fell 2%, after the insurance giant's long-awaited stock sale late Tuesday raised $8.7 billion, leaving the U.S. government with a tiny profit on the offering.
Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) reported strong quarterly results late Tuesday, but the semiconductor company issued a profit outlook for the current quarter that fell short of analysts' expectations. Shares were down 5% in premarket trading.
Shares of Russian search engine Yandex (YNDX) surged 52% to about $38 in premarket trading, a day after the company went public at $25 a share.
California Pizza Kitchen is being bought by Golden Gate Capital for $470 million, or $18.50 per share in cash. Shares of CPK (CPKI) rose 12% ahead of the opening bell.
World markets:

Oil for July delivery slipped 90 cents to $98.69 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery rose $2 to $1,525.40 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury eased, pushing the yield up to 3.13% from 3.12% late Tuesday.

ECB DRAGHI: Need to continue mon policy normalisation
  • Need to avoid 2nd rd effects from wages;
  • Need to anchor inflation expectations in EMU
BOE SENTANCE: rate hike 'long overdue'
  • modest growth not surprising at this stage;
  • could see large moves in commodity prices;
  • risk commodity price rises feeds to wages, prices.
US: Apr durable goods orders -3.6%
Orders desk:

Offers: $1.4100, $1.4130/35, $1.4145/50, $1.4160/65, $1.4195/200
Bids: $1.4040, $1.4000, $1.3970/68

Offers: Y82.25/30, Y82.75
Bids: Y81.75/70, Y81.45/30

European session: The pound strengthened

08:30 UK GDP (Q1) revised 0.5%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) revised Y/Y 1.8%
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun) 5.5

The pound strengthened against the dollar and euro as a report showed U.K. exports helped the economy resume growth in the first quarter, outweighing the biggest slump in consumer spending in almost two years.
Britain’s currency appreciated against all but one of its major peers. Gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent in the first three months of this year, matching an initial estimate, data showed today. Exports rose 3.7 percent in the quarter and net trade added a record 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth. Consumer spending dropped 0.6 percent, the most since the second quarter of 2009.
The euro fell against major counterparts on concern a solution to the European debt crisis has yet to be found, threatening the region’s economic recovery.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.4000 then restored in around $1.4070. 
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.6200. 
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y81.80-Y82.10.

US data continues at 1230GMT when durable goods orders are expected to fall 2.6% in April after rising a revised 4.1% in March. Boeing reported only 2 aircraft orders in April, down sharply from the 98 orders reported in March. US data continues at 1400GMT with the FHFA Home Price Index and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data. 


Retains a firm tone into early NY, holds toward its earlier posted highs at $1.6239. Next resistance seen at $1.6250/60 ($1.6258 
1.618% swing projection of the pullback from $1.6210/1.6132), a break to open a move toward $1.6280 ahead of stronger interest at $1.6300/10. Support seen back at $1.6210/00.


Model sales of the cross drives cable through reports stops above Tuesday's highs of $1.6210, the rate extending move to $1.6226. Next resistance noted between $1.6300. Focus on key support in euro-sterling at stg0.8665/60, a break here to open a deeper move in the cross. If holds above could place a counter weight to the cable rally

FTSE +0.02% 5,859, CAC -0.14% 3,911, DAX -0.12% 7,142
European focus: The euro dropped

The dollar, yen and Swiss franc advanced against their major counterparts as stocks slumped and commodities declined, boosting demand for the safest assets.
The Dollar Index approached a seven-week high before U.S. reports forecast to show durable goods orders contracted in April and house prices fell in March.
The euro dropped toward a two-month low against the dollar amid concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will spread as policy makers disagree over how to solve Greece’s fiscal woes.
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told French newspaper Les Echos in an interview that Greek debt maturities could be extended on a voluntary basis.
“The main concern still centers around Greece and potential contagion in its sovereign-debt crisis to Spain,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. 

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4030, $1.4050, $1.4100, $1.4160 
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.45, Y82.00, Y80.50, Y80.00
EUR/JPY Y117.00
GBP/USD $1.6175
EUR/GBP stg0.8700

Asian stock close:

Hang Seng + 0.07%  22,747.28
Shanghai Composite -0.91% 2741.74
Nikkei -0.57% 9,422.88

UK DATA: Q1 GDP Unrevised at +0.5% q/q; +1.8% y/y
Asian session: The dollar and yen advanced

The dollar and yen advanced against their major counterparts as Asian stocks slumped and commodities including oil declined, boosting demand for the safest assets.
The Dollar Index approached a seven-week high before U.S. reports tomorrow forecast to show the world’s largest economy is recovering at a faster pace and initial jobless claims decreased for a third week. 
The euro dropped toward a two-month low against the dollar amid concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will spread as policy makers disagree over how to solve Greece’s fiscal woes.
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told French daily newspaper Les Echos in an interview that Greek debt maturities could be extended on a voluntary basis.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1.4030. 
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1.6130. 
USD/JPY: the pair decreased below mark Y82.00

UK data also starts at 0830GMT and includes the second estimate of Q1 GDP, which is expected to remain unrevised. This is released at the same time as BBA mortgage approvals data and also the index of services data as well as the Q1 details. 
US data starts at 1100GMT with the MBA Mortgage Application Index. US data continues at 1230GMT when durable goods orders are expected to fall 2.6% in April after rising a revised 4.1% in March. Boeing reported only 2 aircraft orders in April, down sharply from the 98 orders reported in March. US data continues at 1400GMT with the FHFA Home Price Index and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data. 

Stocks: Tuesday's review

Japanese stocks rose for the first time in four days as investors bought utilities amid increasing uncertainty about the strength of the global economic recovery after reports signaled growth is slowing in the U.S. and Europe.
Electricity and gas suppliers had the biggest gain on the Topix index. Chubu Electric Power Co. increased 3.6 percent. Nippon Yusen K.K., the country’s largest shipping line by sales, jumped 3.4 percent after cargo rates increased yesterday and a SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. analyst maintained his bullish stance on Japan’s shipping line sector. Toshiba Corp. (6502), an electronics maker, increased 2.1 percent after the company said it will target operating profit of 500 billion yen ($6.1 billion) for fiscal 2013.
European stocks advanced, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rebounding from a one-month low, as commodities rallied and a report showed that U.S. new- home sales increased more than forecast last month.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group, the third largest, both gained more than 1.5 percent as metal prices rose. Travis Perkins Plc (TPK) climbed 2.7 percent after Jefferies Group Inc. recommended buying the company’s shares. Renewable Energy Corp. slumped 17 percent to the lowest price since its initial public offering in 2006.
German business confidence remained unexpectedly unchanged in May as booming exports and rising company spending boosted economic growth. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, held at 114.2, the same as in April.
U.S. stocks were little changed as regional Federal Reserve directors recommended a continuation of easy monetary policy and new home sales rebounded, offsetting a decline in financial shares.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) rallied more than 2.5 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. signaled a positive outlook for commodities. Discover Financial Services slumped 2.3 percent to lead losses in financial shares. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) slid 0.8 percent as Fed Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said banks’ businesses should be confined to loans and deposits.
The S&P 500 fell 3.4 percent through yesterday since climbing to a three-year high on April 29 amid a commodity slump and concern about Europe’s debt crisis. Still, the benchmark has rallied 4.8 percent from the end of 2010 amid government stimulus measures and higher-than-estimated earnings.
Home Sales
Early gains were today were triggered by a report that purchases of new houses rose in April to the highest level so far this year after plunging to a record low two months earlier. Sales climbed 7.3 percent to a 323,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists called for sales at a 300,000 annual rate, unchanged from the prior month. Housing prices rose from a year earlier.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y83.10 (Apr 20 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 1: Y82.10/20 (May 19 and 24 high) 
Current price: Y81.86
Support 1:Y81.65 (support line from May 5)  
Support 2:Y81.30 (May 23 low)  
Support 3:Y80.90 (May 18 low)  
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support - Y81.65. Below losses are possible to Y81.30. The nearest resistance - Y82.10/20. Above growth is possible to Y82.80. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8950 (May 13 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8880/90 (resistance line from May 13, May 24 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8830 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.8794
Support 1: Chf0.8780 (May 24 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8750 (May 20 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (May 10 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0.8790. The nearest resistance Chf0.8830. Above is located Chf0.8880/90. The nearest support - Chf0,8780. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8750. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6300 (around of May 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6220 (resistance line from May 2)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6190 (МА(200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.6168
Support 1 : $1.6140 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6060 (May 24 low)
Support 3 : $1.5930 (low of March, МА (200) for D1)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6160. The nearest support $1.6140. Below decrease is possible  to $1.6060. The nearest resistance - $1.6190. Above growth is possible to $1.6220. 

GERMANY: GfK June consumer sentiment falls to 5.5 vs 5.7 in May
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4340 (May 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4190 (support line from May 4)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4140 (May 23-24 high)
Current price: $1.4041
Support 1 : $1.4030 (session low) 
Support 2 : $1.3970 (May 23 low)
Support 3 : $1.3910 (50.0 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.4940)

Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support $1,4030. Below losses are possible to $1.3970. The nearest resistance - $1.4140. Above growth is possible to $1,4190. 

Schedule for today, Wednesday, May 25 2011:

08:30 UK GDP (Q1) revised 0.5% 0.5%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) revised Y/Y 1.8% 1.8%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders (April) -1.9% 4.1 (2.9)%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding transportation (April) 0.6% 1.3%
12:30 USA Durable goods orders excluding defence (April)  2.3%

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