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America Economic Advisory Committee estimates US real growth in 2011 at +2.9% and +3.1% in 2012

The semiannual economic forecast survey from Bond Dealers of America Economic Advisory Committee finds US still has headwinds but median est is +2.9% real growth in 2011 and +3.1% in 2012, "with growth rates steadily rising quarter over quarter from 2.5% in the first quarter in 2011 to 3.3% during the second half of 2012. CPI is expected to rise to 2.8% in 2011 and slow to 1.7% in 2012. The acceleration in consumer prices this year is due to the increase in energy and food prices that is expected to moderate in 2012.

Dow -17.33 at 12488.66, Nasdaq +4.57 at 2824.73, S&P -1.12 at 1336.26

Silver prices had been up more than 5% to a new 30-year high of almost $50 per ounce earlier today, but they pulled back to close pit trade at $47.56 per ounce with a gain more on the order of 1%. Amid silver's strength, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV 46.47, +0.94) has been setting record highs, just as it did today. What's more, share volume in SLV is at its highest level in history, so SLV traders are exchanging the most shares ever at the ETF's highest price ever.

General Dynamics reporting it got a support services contract from the US Army worth a max of about $2.5b.
American focus: Dollar recovers

The dollar won a reprieve on Monday after last week's steep slide but traders said it could head for a test of its all-time low against a basket of currencies if the U.S. Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance towards tightening later in the week.
In thin trade due to Easter holidays in Australia and much of Europe, Japanese importer bids for dollars were enough to boost the U.S. currency against the yen and help it to erase earlier losses against other currencies.
With dollar interest rates seen taking a pivotal role in the market, players are looking to a news conference by Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday after the central bank's two-day policy meeting.
The dollar index rose slightly to 74.07, but many trader says it could test a three-year low of 73.735 hit last week. A break of that could open the way for a test of the record low of 70.698 hit in 2008.
The dollar has been falling due to perceptions that the United States is set to maintain an easy monetary policy even as most other major global economies look to tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation.
The Fed is widely expected to stick to completing its $600 billion asset purchase programme in June but many market players think a backdrop of softer-than-expected economic data, weak housing markets and possible government austerity measures to tackle the budget deficit all make it more likely the Fed will keep its support for the recovery in place for some time.
Many analysts believe the U.S. central bank will hold the size of its balance sheet steady by reinvesting maturing assets after June to avoid a passive tightening -- an issue that will likely be discussed at the April 26-27 meeting.

Techs on USD/JPY
Resistance 3:Y83.80       
Resistance 2:Y83.10       

Resistance 1:Y82.40         
Current price: Y81.92
Support 1:Y81.60        
Support 2:Y80.70        

Support 3:Y79.80            

Comments: rate continues to back off after overnight rally. Support is near Y81.60 (Apr 21-22 lows and Mar 29 low). Below losses may widen to Y80.70 (Mar 18-24 lows) and Y79.80 (Mar 17 high). Resistance is around Y82.40 (session high). Above there is a room for a rise up to Y83.10 (Apr 20 high).
Techs on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9000                    
Resistance 2: Chf0.8920                     

Resistance 1: Chf0.8880

Current price: Chf0.8810
Support 1: Chf0.8770
Support 2: Chf0.8720
Support 3: Chf0.8660

Comments: Rate refreshed life-time low at Chf0.8770. break under widens losses to Chf0.8720, with stronger support comes at channel line from Dec 01'2010 at Chf0.8660. Minor resistance comes at Chf0.8880 (Friday's high). Next band of resistance comes at Chf0.8920 and Chf0.9000 (Apr 19 high).
Techs on GBP/USD
Resistance 3:$1.6720          
Resistance 2:$1.6600          
Resistance 1:$1.6550        
Current price: $1.6492
Support 1: $1.6430
Support 2: $1.6380
Support 3: $1.6330

Comments: Rate remains under pressure. Currently strong support is near $1.6430 (38.2% Fibo of $1.6170 - $1.6600). Below correction may dip to $1.6380 (50%). Resistance comes at session highs on $1.6550 with stronger level is at $1.6600 (Apr 21 high). Further rise may be capped by Dec'2010 high on $1.6720.

Techs on EUR/USD

Techs on EUR/USD

Resistance 3:$1.5000                  
Resistance 2:$1.4770                 
Resistance 1:$1.4650            
Current price: $1.4570
Support 3: $1.4520              
Support 2: $1.4460              

Support 3: $1.4400                

Comments: Euro bears failed to break under strong support at $1.4520/25 (23.6% Fibo of $1.4160 - $1.4650 move). Currently rate tries to recover with resistance is near Thursday's high on $1.4650. Above the rise may extend to Dec 11'2009 highs on $1.4770 and then - to $1.5000. Clean break under $1.4520 widens losses to $1.4460 (38.2%) and then - to $1.4400 (50%).
Ahead of US Q1 GDP report: median estimate is 1.8% (range 1.3% to 2.7%).

June light sweet crude oil WTI futures are down $0.89 at $111.40 per barrel and ICE Brent down $0.93 at $123.06 per barrel, after trading in respective ranges of $111.08 to $113.48 and $122.80 to $124.75. On April 11, Brent posted a 32-month high of $127.02, before profit-taking.

CIBC on housing sales

Analysts at CIBC say Mar new home sales were up but remain not good-depressed at 300k. "That still leaves sales in the 270-340K range that they've been since 2009, hardly indicative of a recovery in the housing market."

Dow -42.99 at 12463.00, Nasdaq -1.65 at 2818.51, S&P -4.11 at 1333.27

Commodities under pressure Monday.
Crude oil futures sold-off to $111.00 during this sell-off and is now over 2% lower than from its session highs of around $113.40/barrel hit just over an hour ago. Current crude is down 0.7% at $111.53/barrel.
Gold fell into the red, but is now just above the unchanged line at $1504.70 +0.90. Overnight, gold chopped around the $1518.00 level.
Silver also dipped into negative territory after being over 4% higher earlier this morning in the recent sell-off.

Analysts at Commerzbank say despite the 11.1% rise, Mar New Home Sales are "still near the bottom."
EUR/USD holds at NY lows on $1.4565 in holiday-thinned trading. The euro is also seeing downward pressure on unwinds. Larger support is seen at $1.4500/20.

Gold prices hold at $1413.50/oz, down from the new life-time high of $1518.10 and up from a low of $1509.75. The gold broke and closed above the psychological $1500 level last Wednesday. Resistance is expected at $1525 and $1550. On the downside, support comes at trend support (from April 12 lows).

US: March new home sales +11.1% to 300k

Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB) fell below earnings expectations at $1.09 earnings per share vs $1.17 expected.
Jonson Controls, Inc. (JCI) beat expectations by $0.01 at $0.56 vs $0.55.

Ahead of Thursday's advance Q1 GDP release

Credit Suisse economists expect a 2.0% q-o-q headline, vs 3.1% q-o-q in Q4. The economists however note steady job creation and strong Q1 ISM that was consistent with growth in excess of 4.0% q-o-q.

Before the bell: Stocks poised to continue rally

U.S. stocks were poised to head higher at Monday's open as investors continued to focus on earnings reports and awaited the latest data on the housing market.
After strong earnings propelled the Dow to a near 3-year high in the prior week, investors were looking to extend the rally Monday. The last week in April brings earnings reports from nine Dow components and 180 members of the S&P 500, including Netflix (NFLX) after Monday's close.
The market was closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.

Economy: Monday also brings the latest data on new home sales, released by the Census Bureau at 14:00 GMT.
Economists expect new home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 280,000 units in March from a 250,000-unit rate in February.
Companies: Netflix (NFLX) will announce first-quarter results after the closing bell. Analysts expect the online movie rental company's profit to surge almost 80%, as sales climb 43% from a year earlier.

USD/JPY holds around the figure

USD/JPY bottomed around Y81.60-65 last week, before closing Friday around Y81.84. Monday's push above Y82 (at Y82.05 currently) is being viewed as mildly bullish for the pair, but traders would like to see dollar-yen take out the April 21 peak at Y82.57 before there is a shot at retesting last week's highs of Y83.10 and Y83.26 (200-day moving average at Y83.24). The pair stalled earlier at its 55-day moving average, which comes in Monday at Y82.51. The 100-day, which comes in at Y82.63, is likely to offer resistance also.

Wall Street: Futures rise Monday with the Dow futures +0.26%, the S&P +0.24% and the Nasdaq +0.26%.
EU session review: Yen weakens on central bank interest-rate prospects

The yen fell versus all of its major counterparts on speculation the Bank of Japan will signal this week it will maintain monetary stimulus while policy is being tightened elsewhere.
The euro climbed against the yen for a second day before data this week that may show industrial orders growth in the currency bloc accelerated, bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to increase interest rates further.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Monday that sentiment in Japan was worsening due to last month's devastating earthquake and tsunami, and the nuclear safety crisis they triggered in northeast Japan.
The Bank of Japan will hold its benchmark interest rate at a range of between zero and 0.1% at its April 28 meeting. The central bank may cut its forecast for real growth in fiscal 2011 to 0.8% from 1.6% as a result of a record earthquake on March 11.

EUR/USD initially failed to break above $1.4600 and retreated a bit. But later rate printed session high above the figure - at $1.4628. Strong resistance remains at Thursday's high on $1.4650. Support comes at $1.4520 (overnight low).

GBP/USD recovered and printed session high around $1.6550 before retreates to current levels around $1.65515. Rate earlier tested strong support at $1.6500/90 (23.6% Fibo of $1.6160 - $1.6600). 

USD/JPY fell to Y81.88 after morning rally to Y82.40. Currently rate holds around Y82.05.

Financial markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and London are closed for a public holiday today.
US data starts - at 1400GMT New home sales (March).

JPM ahead of FOMC

JPM comments on the Weds FOMC statement, saying it will "indicate that QE2 is coming to an end as planned" and could contain "language similar to that used when QE1 was coming to a close."

GBP/USD holds tight

GBP/USD recovered after it fell to a strong support at $1.6500/90 (23.6% Fibo of $1.6160 - $1.6600 move) in Asia. Later rate back to  session high on $1.6540, that is still lower Asian high on $1.6552.

EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD tested $1.4600 and retreated a bit. EU markets mostly closed today for the Easter holiday. As a result euro bulls are not so strong Monday to push the euro above the $1.4600. Strong resistance is around Thursday's high on $1.4650. Support - at $1.4520 (morning lows).

Asian stocks close

Shanghai Composite -0.93% 2,982.65
Nikkei  -0.11% 9671.96

Asian session: The yen fell

The yen fell versus all of its major counterparts on speculation the Bank of Japan will signal this week it will maintain monetary stimulus while policy is being tightened elsewhere.
The euro climbed against the yen for a second day before data this week that may show industrial orders in the trading bloc accelerated, adding to the case for the European Central Bank to increase interest rates further.
The dollar erased earlier losses against the euro. The European currency’s 14-day stochastic oscillator against the dollar rose to 82.3 on April 22, above the 80 threshold that suggests to some traders an asset’s price has risen too quickly and is poised to weaken.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.4520-$ 1.4600. 
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6490-$ 1.6550.
USD/JPY: the pair  shown high in the field of Y82.40 then  returned back to around of mark Y82.00.

US data starts - at 1400GMT New home sales (March).

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.80 (Apr 15 high) 
Resistance 2:Y83.10 (Apr 20 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.40 (session high) 
Current price: Y82.13
Support 1:Y81.50/60 (Apr 21-22 and Mar 29 low)    
Support 2:Y80.70 (around of Mar 18-24 low)  
Support 3:Y79.80 (Mar 17 low)    
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - Y82.40. Above growth is possible to Y83.10. The nearest support - Y81,50/60. Below losses are possible to Y80.70. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8925 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8875 (session high, Apr 22 high)
Current price: Chf0.8843
Support 1: Chf0.8830 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8780 (Apr 21 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0.8840. The nearest support - Chf0,8830. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8780. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8875. Above is located Chf0.8925. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6720 (Dec'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6600 (Apr 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6550 (session high)
Current price: $1.6512
Support 1 : $1.6480 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6430 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6170-$ 1,6600)
Support 3 : $1.6380 (50.0 % FIBO $1,6170-$ 1,6600, Apr 21 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6500. The nearest resistance - around $1.6550. Above growth is possible to $1.6600. The nearest support $1.6480. Below is possible testing of  $1.6430.

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5000 (psychological mark)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4770 (Dec 11'2009 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4650 (Apr 21 high)
Current price: $1.4576
Support 3 : $1.4520 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4460 (38,2 % FIBO $1,4155-$ 1,4650)
Support 3 : $1.4400 (50.0 % FIBO $1,4155-$ 1,4650)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4570. The nearest resistance - $1.4650. Above growth is possible  to $1,4770. The nearest support $1,4520. Below losses are possible to $1.4460.

Schedule for today, Monday, Apr 25 2011:

14:00 USA New home sales (March) 275K 250K

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