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25.03.2011
21:14
Dow +66.87 at 12237.43, Nasdaq +20.65 at 2757.07, S&P +7.05 at 1316.71

Discretionary plays casinos and gaming stocks are benefiting from some strong buying interest today.
In addition to broad market support, their advance stems partly from the decision by analysts at UBS to upgrade Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.61, +0.65), which is a new two-week high.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN 127.97, +3.73) has made an especially strong bounce in the wake of the LVS upgrade, but it is still several dollars shy of its 52-week high.

18:10
Dow +66.87 at 12237.43, Nasdaq +20.65 at 2757.07, S&P +7.05 at 1316.71

Discretionary plays casinos and gaming stocks are benefiting from some strong buying interest today.
In addition to broad market support, their advance stems partly from the decision by analysts at UBS to upgrade Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.61, +0.65), which is a new two-week high.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN 127.97, +3.73) has made an especially strong bounce in the wake of the LVS upgrade, but it is still several dollars shy of its 52-week high.

17:40
USD/CHF challenged Chf0.9200 before retreated to Chf0.9187. Rate triggered stops on Chf0.9160.
17:21
US focus: Euro declines as debt concern persists; Australian Dollar rises to record

The euro slumped against the dollar as European Union leaders cut the startup capital for a program for future emergency aid, stoking concern about governments’ efforts to quell the debt crisis.
EU leaders pared the fund’s paid-in capital as of 2013 to 16 billion euros ($23 billion), less than the 40 billion euros foreseen in a March 21 accord. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it will take the euro years to recover from the “sins of the past.”
The shared currency fell from almost its highest level in four months against the U.S. currency as a major European clearing house said Portuguese government bonds will no longer be eligible as collateral in certain transactions.
LCH Clearnet Ltd., Europe’s biggest clearing house, said Portuguese government bonds will no longer be eligible for delivery in any of its RepoClear euro general collateral baskets after the nation’s debt was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s yesterday. The exclusion takes effect from Monday, LCH said in a statement on its website.
New Zealand’s currency touched the highest in almost a month against the dollar as Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said the nation’s economy will get a boost next year.
The Australian dollar strengthened to the highest level versus its U.S. counterpart since foreign-exchange controls ended in 1983.
The yen headed for a 0.7% weekly loss versus the dollar and a 0.2% decline against the euro, in the week following the Group of Seven nations’ sale of yen to weaken the currency and support Japan’s recovery from its earthquake.

17:04
EUR/USD weakens

EUR/USD skids further, trades to near $1.4060 as stops were triggered below $1.4090. Area of $1.4050, Thursday lows, expected to provide support. Bids noted there.

16:47
GBP/USD falls

GBP/USD skids to fresh lows for the day around $1.06009 after triggering bids on $1.6030. Currently rate holds around $1.6021.

16:33
Wall Street:

The S&P 500 is up 0.69% at 1318.74, after trading in a 1309.66 to 1319.03 range. The S&P has broken above the downtrend line from the 2011 highs at 1344.03 (from Feb 18), which comes in at 1311.73. A close above that level would suggest scope for a move to the March 3 high at 1332.23.

15:34
OIL: May WTI bounced again from earlier lows of $104.48 and edged the earlier high to $105.87 before easing back to $105.55.
15:16
CIBC on GDP

CIBC says "Q4 GDP was revised up to 3.1%, from 2.8% previously reported. But the source of the revision was not that encouraging. Real final sales, GDP excluding inventories, was left unchanged, albeit at a very strong 6.7%. The upward revision came from a smaller drag from inventories" - so could be Q1 restocking.

14:48
Dow +31.79 at 12203.63, Nasdaq +8.87 at 2745.89, S&P +9.77 at 1312.39

Each of the three major equity averages is up with a narrow gain in the early going, but financials continue to trail. This is the third straight session that the financial sector has lagged the broader market.
Although the financial sector is down a relatively tame 0.2% this morning, the sector continues to lack buying interest. Bank of America (BAC 13.43, -0.05) continues to be a burden in the wake of the Fed's decision earlier this week to deny the bank's proposal to distribute capital in the second half of 2011. Meanwhile, British banking play Barclays (BCS 18.67, -0.33) has been aggressively backed down following reports that the outfit is the target of a Libor probe

14:11
BLS state employment data show +280k total vs the official payroll est at +192k
13:59
Reuters/Michigan text:

"The proximate cause of the sharp drop in confidence was the rise in gas and food prices. The more damaging cause, however, was that the fewest consumers in more than a half century expected income increases, and many fewer anticipated gains in their inflation-adjusted incomes. The data clearly indicate that the rate of real consumer spending will diminish, but the data do not indicate a renewed downturn is now on the horizon. Continued job gains are essential as even modest job losses could quickly shift consumers toward retrenchment. For now, consumers find discounts attractive, and remain willing to modestly increase their spending."

13:56
US: Mar final Rtrs U-Mich consumer sentiment 67.5 vs 68.2p and Feb final reading of 77.5.
13:35
CS says the mix in GDP was still good

"Final sales (unrevised at 6.7%) still rose at the fastest QoQ rate since 12 years. And the surge in final demand was sold out of inventories."

13:34
Before the bell: Stocks set to continue rebound

U.S. stock futures continued their upward streak Friday, as investors await the final reading of fourth-quarter GDP and shrug off geopolitical concerns.


Though unrest in the Middle East and Libya is spreading and Japan continues to deal with the effects of an earthquake, the market generally has trended higher this week.

University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for March. Economists expect a reading of 68.0 -- down slightly from 68.2 in February.
Mostly positive earnings news from the technology sector boosted U.S. stocks on Thursday, with all major indexes posting solid gains.
Companies: Shares of Oracle (ORCL) were up 4.7% in premarket, after the software company reported results late Thursday that were mostly in line with expectations. Oracle earnings grew by 78%, and sales rose 37% in the previous quarter. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to 6 cents a share.
Research in Motion (RIMM) shares plunged 12.1% in premarket trade, after the BlackBerry maker gave a weak first-quarter guidance late Thursday. RIMM's earnings were $1.78 per share, versus the $1.75 a share analysts had expected. Revenue rose 36% compared to last year, but still fell short of expectations.
Homebuilder KBHome (KBH) is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings results before the start of trade.
World markets:

Oil for May delivery gained 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $105.77 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery added 80 cents, or less than 0.1%, to $1,435.70 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.40% from 3.39% late Thursday.

13:05
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4200, $1.4220, $1.4240/50
Bids: $1.4120/00, $1.4095/90, $1.4060/50, $1.4035/30, $1.4015/00

12:30
US 4Q 3RD GDP +3.1% V 2ND +2.8%
12:18
European session:

The Swiss franc and Japanese yen weakened on optimism the global economic recovery can withstand the effects of Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and Japan’s worst earthquake on record.
“If we don’t see a significant deterioration of events in Japan, then dollar-yen could try and push higher into next week,” said Jeremy Stretch, executive director of foreign- exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “We are still in a state of relative crisis in the euro zone. There’s a little bit of selling pressure on the euro.”
The euro slipped from near its highest in more than a year against the dollar as European Union leaders prepare to conclude a two-day meeting on the crisis. Portugal, which reiterated its opposition to a financial bailout, had its credit rating lowered yesterday by Standard & Poor’s.
German business confidence fell less than economists forecast in March, a report showed today, suggesting Japan’s earthquake and the prospect of higher euro-region borrowing costs may not damp growth in Europe’s largest economy.
The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, declined to 111.1 from 111.3 in February, which was the highest reading since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
The euro headed for a 0.2 percent weekly drop against the dollar. European Union leaders cut the startup capital for the future euro emergency aid mechanism, stoking fresh concerns about Europe’s effort to quell its debt crisis. The leaders pared the fund’s paid-in capital as of 2013 to 16 billion euros ($23 billion), less than the 40 billion euros foreseen in a March 21 accord.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars headed for weekly gains.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.4140-$1.4190.
GBP/USD: remained at $1.6060-$1.6130 range.
USD/JPY: peaked at Y81.37, before eased back to Y81.00.


US data starts at 1230GMT, when fourth quarter GDP  is expected to be revised up to a 3.0% rate of growth, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +0.4%. Analysts have already turned their attention to the first quarter of 2011, however. 
At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised down to a reading of 68.0 in March, still below the 77.5 reading in February.

11:30
Goldman on QE2

Goldman says QE2 is 58% complete and "the Fed looks unlikely to slow the pace of buying as it approaches the end because they have become more confident that QE works primarily through stock rather than flow effects... We expect the FOMC to clarify details about the end of asset purchases at or shortly after the April FOMC meeting."

10:32
S&P: Ratings of "creditwatch" sovereigns at risk on ESM details.
10:12
FTSE +25.180 +0.43% 5,906, CAC +3.430 +0.09% 3,972, DAX +36.640 +0.53% 6,970
10:02
EMU: M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb) 2.0%
09:43
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4250, $1.4105, $1.4050 
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y81.00, Y81.25, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y112.50
GBP/USD $1.6050
USD/CHF Chf0.9200
AUD/USD $1.0025
NZD/USD $0.7500
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3555


09:23
Asian session:

The euro headed for a second weekly gain versus the yen before a report that economists said will show an indicator of future inflation in Europe quickened, giving the central bank more reason to raise interest rates.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were set for weekly gains against all their major peers as stocks gained and a measure of price volatility declined.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.4150-$ 1.4190.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6090-$ 1.6140.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80.90-Y81.05.

US data starts at 1230GMT, when fourth quarter GDP  is expected to be revised up to a 3.0% rate of growth, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +0.4%. Analysts have already turned their attention to the first quarter of 2011, however. 
At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised down to a reading of 68.0 in March, still below the 77.5 reading in February.

09:16
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro advanced against the dollar for the first time in three days as European Union leaders began a two-day meeting on measures to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The 17-nation currency gained against the yen as speculation the European Central Bank is poised to raise borrowing costs outweighed fiscal turmoil. The euro fell earlier against the dollar and yen as Moody’s Investors Service cut the ratings of 30 Spanish banks and after Portugal’s Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned yesterday. Currencies linked to growth surged as raw material prices and equities rallied.
The euro extended its gains after breaking through the technical level of $1.4150.
European officials said a bailout for Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion). 
Portugal hasn’t asked for a bailout and the figures are preliminary, the officials said. The action would follow Greece and Ireland’s request of aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Greece accepted a $110 billion-euro aid package from the EU and IMF in May 2009 and Ireland accepted an 85 billion-euro bailout fund in November. 
Portugal made up about 1.8$% of the total 17-nation euro-zone gross domestic product in the fourth quarter last year, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office, and data, while Ireland accounts for 1.8% and Greece makes up 2.3%.
Spain, which investors have also speculated may need a bailout, accounts for 10.1% of the region’s gross domestic product.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.4180.
GBP/USD: the pair  decreased in around $1.6120.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80.70-Y81.10.

US data starts at 1230GMT, when fourth quarter GDP  is expected to be revised up to a 3.0% rate of growth, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +0.4%. Analysts have already turned their attention to the first quarter of 2011, however. 
At 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised down to a reading of 68.0 in March, still below the 77.5 reading in February.

09:02
GERMANY: Mar Ifo business sentiment 111.1
08:58
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks fell for a second day, led by Tokyo Electric Power Co., after the utility cast doubt on a planned dividend and as carmakers declined on concern parts supplies will be disrupted.
Tokyo Electric, which operates the nuclear plant damaged by a March 11 earthquake and tsunami, tumbled 14 percent as it suspended its decision to pay a second-half dividend.
Other utility companies also declined. Tohoku Electric Power Co., which provides electricity to disaster-stricken areas including Fukushima, Iwate and Miyagi prefectures, sank 5 percent to 1,514 yen. Chubu Electric Power Co. slumped 1.7 percent to 1,976 yen after the company delayed the planned start on construction of a new reactor for a year.  Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest carmaker by sales, lost 4.6 percent after the company said about 40 component suppliers remain in difficulty following the record quake.

European stocks advanced as carmakers and retailers rallied and Portugal’s Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned, bringing the country closer to getting a bailout from the European Union.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) and Daimler AG (DAI) rose more than 3 percent. Next Plc (NXT) jumped 4 percent as revenue increased. Hugo Boss AG climbed 1.7 percent as BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research recommended buying the shares. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group led basic-resource shares higher as the mining companies won a battle over tax credits in Australia. 

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second day, after corporate profit topped analysts’ estimates and a government report showed a decline in jobless claims.
Micron Technology Inc. (MU), the biggest U.S. producer of computer-memory chips, rose 7.8 percent and Linux-software maker Red Hat Inc. (RHT) surged 20 percent after earnings beat analysts’ estimates. GameStop Corp. (GME) jumped 3.3 percent as the largest video-game retailer forecast profit above analyst’s projections. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) gained 3.6 percent after William Blair & Co. raised its rating for the world’s biggest online retailer.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 1,308.3 at 2:22 p.m. in New York, the highest on a closing basis in two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 80.08 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,166.10. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, slumped 5.6 percent to 18.09.
U.S. stocks rose yesterday, erasing most of the previous day’s drop, as higher metal prices lifted commodity producers. The S&P 500 has gained 3.2 percent in 2011 through yesterday, extending last year’s 13 percent rally, amid government stimulus measures and as companies reported earnings that topped analysts’ estimates for the eighth straight quarter.

08:50
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y82.50 (Mar 14 high) 
Resistance 2:Y82.00 (Mar 15 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.00 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.98
Support 1:Y80.70 (Mar 23 high)    
Support 2:Y79.80 (Mar 17 high)    
Support 2:Y78.25 (Mar 17 intraday low   
Comments: the pair on former bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support - Y80,70. Below losses are possible to Y79.80. The nearest resistance - Y81.00. Above growth possible to Y82.00. 

08:24
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Mar 15 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 16 high, 61,8 % FIBO Chf0,9370-Chf0,8920)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9150 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9370-Chf0,8920)
Current price: Chf0.9091
Support 1: Chf0.9030 (Mar 24 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8960 (Mar 17 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8920 (Mar 16 low)
Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest support - Chf0.9030. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8960. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9150. Above is located Chf0.9200.

08:08
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6400 (Mar 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6270 (Mar 24 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6180 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.6116
Support 1 : $1.6090 (session low, Jan 24 low)
Support 2 : $1.5975 (Mar 11, 15 and 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.5820 (Jan 31 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the low reached yesterday. The nearest support $1.6090. Below is possible testings of around $1.5975. The nearest resistance $1.6180. Above growth is possible to $1.6270. 

07:37
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4320 (resistance line from Jul 2008)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4280 (Nov 5 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4250 (Mar 22 high)
Current price: $1.4167
Support 1 : $1.4080 (support line from Mar 11, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.3960 (support line from Jan 10)
Support 3 : $1.3860 (Mar 15-17 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4160. The nearest support $1,4080. Below losses are possible to $1.3960. The nearest resistance - $1.4250. Above growth is possible to $1,4280. 

07:09
Schedule for today, Friday, Mar 25 2011:

09:00 Germany  IFO business climate index (March) 110.5 111.2
09:00 EU(17) M3 money supply (February) adjusted Y/Y 1.7% 1.5%
09:00 EU(17) M3 money supply (3 months to February) adjusted Y/Y 1.6% 1.7%
12:30 USA GDP (Q4) final Y/Y 3.0% 2.8%
12:30 USA PCE price index (Q4) final - 1.8%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q4) final - 0.4%
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (February) final 68.0 68.2

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