CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-07-2014

European stocks rose for a third day as manufacturing gains in China and the euro area boosted investors' confidence that the economic recovery is on track.

Euro-area manufacturing and services activity strengthened in July in a sign that a recovery in the 18-nation region is gathering pace. A combined purchasing managers index for both industries jumped to 54 this month from 52.8 in June, matching a three-year high reached in April, Markit Economics said. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey had predicted an unchanged reading of 52.8. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion.

National benchmark indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western-European markets today. France's CAC 40 climbed 0.8 percent, while Germany's DAX added 0.4 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained 0.3 percent.

Nokia jumped 7.3 percent to 6.14 euros, its highest price since May 2011. The Finnish network-equipment maker that sold its mobile-phone business to Microsoft Corp. posted second-quarter earnings excluding some items of 6 euro cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted 4.5 cents.

Danske Bank A/S advanced 4.6 percent to 162.90 kroner, its highest price since April 2008. Scandinavia's second-largest lender said net income will rise to as much as 13 billion kroner ($2.3 billion) in 2014. That compares with a forecast in May for as much as 12 billion kroner.

Logitech International SA jumped 15 percent to 13.90 Swiss francs for its biggest rally in six months. The world's biggest maker of computer mice raised its full-year 2015 guidance for operating income not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles to about $170 million from $145 million.

Dassault Systemes SA added 5.2 percent to 49.46 euros. The French developer of three-dimensional design software reported a 15 percent increase in revenue not based on International Financial Reporting Standards.

West Texas Intermediate crude declined with losses in gasoline as U.S. inventories of the fuel expanded for a third week, threatening to depress refining margins. Brent also fell.

Gasoline stockpiles grew by 3.38 million barrels last week and supplies around New York Harbor, where futures contracts are delivered, were at the highest seasonal level since 2008, Energy Information Administration data show. WTI briefly pared losses after the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to an eight-year low, then fell further.

"The increase in gasoline and distillate inventories and the fall in demand is weighing on the entire complex," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. "We didn't rise off the surprisingly strong weekly jobs report this morning, which shows the inherent weakness of the market."

WTI for September delivery slipped 47 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $102.65 a barrel at 10:35 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 20 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for September settlement was 64 cents, or 0.6 percent, lower at $107.39 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $4.74 a barrel to WTI on ICE, compared with $4.91 yesterday.

Gold prices down by a stronger dollar after strong data from the U.S. labor market.

Number of new applications for unemployment benefits decreased significantly last week, reaching minimum values ​​at the same time for 8.5 years, providing further evidence of improvement in the labor market.

The Labor Department said: seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the week ending July 19, 19, 000 - to the level of 284 000. Latter value was the lowest since February 2006. Economists forecast that the number of appeals will be 310 thousand Meanwhile, the figure for the previous week was revised upward - to 303 thousand from 302 thousand

Also, the data showed that the average number of calls in the last four weeks fell last week for 7250 - to 302 500, which is the lowest since May 2007.

At the same time, the demand for gold in China has decreased by 19% in the first half of 2014, said the China Association of Gold on Thursday.

In the first half of the total demand for gold in the country fell by 136.91 tons and amounted to 569.45 tons, according to a statement posted on the website of the association.

The most significant decline in demand affected gold bullion. Demand for it has fallen by 62%. Demand for gold coins fell by 44%.

Nevertheless, in some segments of the demand for gold has increased: the demand from jewelers rose 11%, while industrial demand has increased by 11%.

Last year, China became the world's largest consumer and producer of gold, for the first time ahead of India in this regard.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1287.50 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3440, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3520-30

USD/JPY Y101.50-55, Y101.65-75, Y101.80-90

EUR/JPY Y136.75

GBP/USD $1.6900, $1.7000, $1.7020, $1.7095

EUR/GBP Stg0.7800, stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9300-25, $0.9340, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9500-20

NZD/USD $0.8600, $0.8625, $0.8640, $8700, $0.8740

USD/CAD C$1.0680, C$1.0700, C$1.0725, C$1.0790

U.S. stock-index futures advanced as results from Facebook Inc. (FB) to Ford Motor Co. (F) topped analysts' estimates.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,284.42 -44.14 -0.29%

Hang Seng 24,141.5 +169.63 +0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,105.06 +26.57 +1.28%

FTSE 6,806.97 +8.82 +0.13%

CAC 4,413.21 +36.89 +0.84%

DAX 9,801.82 +48.26 +0.49%

Crude oil $102.72 (-0.37%)

Gold $1297.70 (-0.54%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

PepsiCo (PEP) upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel

Verizon (VZ) upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform at FBR Capital, target $57

Downgrades:

Boeing (BA) downgraded from Buy to Neutral at BofA/Merrill

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded from Buy to Neutral at BofA/Merrill

Other:

Facebook (FB) target raised to $100 from $80 at Topeka Capital Markets

AT&T (T) target lowered to $36 at RBC Capital Mkts

Facebook (FB) target raised to $90 from $79 at Oppenheimer

Facebook (FB) target raised to $90 from $76 at Piper Jaffray

Data

1:35 Japan index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in July 51.5 51.9 50.8

1:45 China Manufacturing PMI HSBC (preliminary data) July 50.7 51.2 52.0

6:58 France PMI in the manufacturing sector (preliminary data) July 48.2 48.5 47.6

6:58 France PMI services sector (preliminary data) July 48.2 48.9 50.4

7:28 Germany PMI manufacturing sector (preliminary data) July 52.0 52.2 52.9

7:28 Germany PMI services sector (preliminary data) July 54.6 54.7 56.6

7:58 Eurozone business activity in the manufacturing sector (preliminary data) July 51.8 52.0 51.9

7:58 Eurozone business activity in the services sector (preliminary data) July 52.8 52.7 54.4

08:30 UK Retail Sales m / m in June -0.5% +0.2% +0.1%

08:30 UK Retail Sales y / y in June +3.9% +3.9% +3.6%

The euro exchange rate against the dollar has risen considerably, departing from the 8-month low, which was associated with the release of positive data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany and the euro area in July. According to statistics published by Markit Economics index showing business optimism in the manufacturing sector of the economy of Germany, grew to around 52.9, while analysts had expected growth to the level of 52.2.

As for the euro area, there is a composite Purchasing Managers' Index, which covers the manufacturing sector and the service sector, rose to 54.0 in July from 52.8 points, the highest level since April. Recall that a value above 50 indicates expansion. Latest update also proved significantly higher than the average forecasts of experts. However, while business activity in the service sector of the eurozone expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 - PMI index rose to 54.4 from 52.8 - firms continue to reduce prices, which is fixed for the past 31 consecutive months. We add that the sub-index of prices for products in this sector fell to 48.3, despite high raw material costs. With regard to the sub-index of employment in the services sector, it has not changed in July (50.9).

Meanwhile, data showed that manufacturing index rose to 51.9 from 51.8 mark in June, which was slightly lower than expected (52.0). Meanwhile, the production index rose to 53.0 from 52.8.

Pound fell sharply against the U.S. currency came under pressure on weak retail sales report. British retail sales in the second quarter was the highest in the last 10 years, but has not changed in the last month. This was stated in the report submitted to the Office for National Statistics. According to data for the period from April to June, retail sales rose by 1.6 percent compared with the previous three months, recording the largest increase since the beginning of 2004. Nevertheless, by the end of June, sales grew by only 0.1 percent compared to May. In annual terms, sales rose by 3.6 percent. Experts had expected a monthly basis, growth will be 0.2 percent, and year - 3.9 percent.

In Statistical Office reported that sales in the second quarter were increased stepwise by 1.0 percent in April, which more than offset the fall in May. Comparing the second quarter from the same period last year, sales rose 4.5 percent, showing the biggest increase since the end of 2004. In today's report also stated that the annual 2 percent increase in prices for textiles, clothing and footwear was unusual, given that retailers cut prices during the month. The last time the price of clothing rose in June 2007.

The yen remained under pressure after the publication of the report of the weak export Japan. Country's exports fell by 2.2% compared with the same period a year earlier. The indicator does not live up to expectations of economists, who had forecast an increase of 1%. In May index lost 2.7%, and this was the first drop in more than a year. Imports increased by 8.4% compared to the same period last year, with increased buying power and a relatively weak yen after being dropped by 3.6% in May.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3485

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7005

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.66

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will report on initial jobless claims for unemployment, 13:45 GMT to submit an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in July, and at 14:00 GMT declares sales in the primary market in June. At 23:30 GMT Japan's consumer price index will be released in June and Tokyo CPI for July

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3530, $1.3490

Bids $1.3400, $1.3360, $1.3300

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115, $1.7095

Bids $1.7005/00, $1.6970, $1.6950, $1.6920

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9470

Bids $0.9380, $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.50, Y137.00

Bids Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.35, Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.80

Bids Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35

Bids stg0.7880, stg0.7870, stg0.7850, stg0.7800

European stocks rose, offsetting early losses, which was associated with the publication of data on business activity and corporate reporting. Futures on American stock indexes and Asian shares have not changed.

Support is provided by data on business activity in Germany and the euro area in July. According to statistics Markit Economics, indicator showing business optimism in the manufacturing sector of Germany's economy, rose to 52.9 from 52.0, while analysts had expected growth to 52.2.

As for the euro area, there is a composite Purchasing Managers' Index, which covers the manufacturing sector and the service sector, rose to 54.0 in July from 52.8 points, the highest level since April. Latest update also proved significantly higher than the average forecasts of experts. However, while business activity in the service sector of the eurozone expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 - PMI index rose to 54.4 from 52.8 - firms continue to reduce prices, which is fixed for the past 31 consecutive months. We add that the sub-index of prices for products in this sector fell to 48.3, despite high raw material costs. With regard to the sub-index of employment in the services sector, it has not changed in July (50.9).

Meanwhile, data showed that manufacturing index rose to 51.9 from 51.8 mark in June, which was slightly lower than expected (52.0).

Slight pressure have expectations introducing new EU sanctions against Russia. Sanctions that the Committee of Permanent Representatives of the EU will consider on Thursday evening may include a ban on the purchase of new shares or debentures issued by Russian banks with state participation above 50%, experts say, referring to the proposal of the European Commission.

Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG added 1.3%, registering the fourth consecutive session gain, which was associated with the confirmation of the annual forecast.

Kingfisher shares fell 7.50% after reports that creditors of the company are going to accuse her of frustrating the implementation of monetary obligations. We also learned that the company's sales in the II quarter, especially in June, were weaker than expected.

Quotes Nokia Corp. jumped nearly 7.3%, to a maximum of 3 years. The Finnish company has returned to the break-even level in the II quarter and forecast annual profitability improved network equipment units due to demand in China.

The market value of BASF SE fell by 1.9%. The world's largest chemical manufacturer reported a 12 percent increase in earnings before interest, taxes and one-time items in the second quarter - to 2.05 billion euros, compared with a forecast of 2.09 billion euros.

Paper Danske Bank A / S rose 5.3 percent, reaching the highest price since April 2008, after the second largest lender in Scandinavia increased annual forecast. Net income will rise to 13 billion euros ($ 2.3 billion) in 2014, said in Danske. Recall that on May 1 lender predicted profit of 12 billion kroner.

At the current moment

FTSE 6,805.47 +7.32 +0.11%

CAC 40 4,408.93 +32.61 +0.75%

DAX 9,797.99 +44.43 +0.46%

EUR/USD $1.3440, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3520-30

USD/JPY Y101.50-55, Y101.65-75, Y101.80-90

EUR/JPY Y136.75

GBP/USD $1.6900, $1.7000, $1.7020, $1.7095

EUR/GBP Stg0.7800, stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9300-25, $0.9340, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9500-20

NZD/USD $0.8600, $0.8625, $0.8640, $8700, $0.8740

USD/CAD C$1.0680, C$1.0700, C$1.0725, C$1.0790

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3570 (1230)

$1.3537 (580)

$1.3494 (87)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3459

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3439 (2594)

$1.3422 (7231)

$1.3397 (2594)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 27552 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3918);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34764 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7231);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.31 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 23

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7300 (1318)

$1.7201 (1695)

$1.7104 (2077)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7030

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6994 (3022)

$1.6897 (2121)

$1.6799 (1414)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16715 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2424);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23921 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (3022);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.43 versus 1.43 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

01:35 Japan Manufacturing PMI July 51.5 51.9 50.8

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI July 50.7 51.2 52.0

New Zealand's dollar slid the most in six months after its central bank warned of the potential for a "significant fall" in the kiwi. The kiwi slid as New Zealand's central bank signaled it will pause its interest-rate increases amid benign inflation and a strong currency. Wheeler was the first central banker from a developed nation to raise official rates this year and today's tightening to 3.5 percent marked the bank's fourth move. A pause would mean steady borrowing costs ahead of a general election on Sept. 20.

Demand for the Australian dollar was bolstered after a Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to an 18-month high in July, adding to signs the government will meet its 2014 economic-growth target of about 7.5 percent. The Asian nation is Australia's largest trading partner.

The euro matched its lowest level since November before data predicted to show a slowing in manufacturing growth. Europe's common currency may weaken with Markit Economics data due today predicted to show a manufacturing index for the euro area slipped to 51.7 in July from 51.8, according to a separate poll. For the U.S., the gauge is projected at 57.5 from 57.3.

The yen remained weaker after a report showed exports unexpectedly declined. Japanese exports declined 2 percent in June from a year earlier, according to Finance Ministry data released today, compared with a median estimate for a 1 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3455-65

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.7030-40

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y101.50-60

UK retail sales data at 0830GMT provides the domestic data focus, median June 0.3% m/m from May -0.5%. Eurozone flash PMI's (France 0700GMT, Germany 0730GMT, EZ 0800GMT) released earlier expected to dictate direction in the euro, with effect on euro-sterling in turn to influence cable.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 103.20 +0.08%

Gold 1,305.10 +0.03%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3461 -0,03%

GBP/USD $1,7038 -0,15%

USD/CHF Chf0,9022 0,00%

USD/JPY Y101,54 +0,08%

EUR/JPY Y136,69 +0,04%

GBP/JPY Y173,00 -0,07%

AUD/USD $0,9441 +0,52%

NZD/USD $0,8619 -0,56%

USD/CAD C$1,0725 -0,09%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,328.56 -14.72 -0.10%

Hang Seng 23,971.87 +189.76 +0.80%

Shanghai Composite 2,078.49 +3.01 +0.14%

FTSE 100 6,798.15 +2.81 +0.04%

CAC 40 4,376.32 +6.80 +0.16%

Xetra DAX 9,753.56 +19.23 +0.20%

S&P 500 1,987.01 +3.48 +0.18%

NASDAQ 4,473.7 +17.68 +0.40%

Dow Jones 17,086.63 -26.91 -0.16%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3.25% 3.50% 3.50%

00:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

01:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln June 285 155 247

02:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln June -862.2 -1110.0

04:35 Japan Manufacturing PMI July 51.5 51.9

04:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 50.7 51.2

09:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 48.2 48.5

09:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) July 48.2 48.9

10:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 52.0 52.2

10:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) July 54.6 54.7

10:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 51.8 52.0

10:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) July 52.8 82.7

11:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) June -0.5% +0.2%

11:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) June +3.9% +3.9%

15:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 302 310

16:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 57.3 57.5

17:00 U.S. New Home Sales June 504 485