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24.05.2011
18:59
JPM revises down their outlook for the annual growth rate of real GDP in Q2 from 3.0% to 2.5% due to weaker output of the motor vehicle sector. They still anticipate a first Fed rate hike in Q1 2013.
18:58
EU's Juncker: if Greece meets all reform targets, cannot exclude a lengthening of loan maturities.
18:43
Dow -6.35 at 12374.91, Nasdaq -9.34 at 2749.56, S&P -0.89 at 1316.48

Stocks have made a slight upturn in recent trade. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 now face possible resistance at the flat line. The Nasdaq continues to lag its counterparts, though.

18:06
High Frequency Economics on new home sales

Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics says "A 7.3% increase in sales sounds impressive, but it was nowhere near large enough to be statistically significant." He reminds that the Census Bureau says the margin of error is plus or minus 16.6% so "the trend in new home sales is still broadly flat, at an extraordinarily depressed level."

17:27
ECB: Bini-Smaghi says must and will act if inflation stays above target
  •  non-standard exit depends on market conditions and Greek restructuring would be a disaster.
16:39
American focus:

The euro rose versus the dollar for the first time in three days as German business confidence unexpectedly held near a record high, fueling bets the European Central Bank will resume boosting interest rates even as the region’s debt crisis intensifies.
The dollar remained lower versus most peers as purchases of new houses rose in April to the highest level this year. Sales increased 7.3% to a 323,000 annual pace last month, Commerce Department data showed today
“Ifo is a timely reminder that the most important economy in Europe is still motoring along,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “It’s probably enough to confirm the ECB’s own thinking that the core of Europe is still strong and they need to move away from some of that accommodative policy.”
“This can probably run to $1.42 to $1.4250 in the next 24 to 48 hours, and that wouldn’t alter the fundamental story that ultimately the euro is going to trade lower,” said Franulovich.

16:11
Cleveland Fed's Pianalto: economy has "firmer footing' despite oil shock.
  • Fed is 'keeping a close eye on sign of inflation';
  • Without price stability the economy can't sustain maximum employment;
  • Now is the 'opportune time' for an explicit 2% inflation target.
16:02
Dow +10.41 at 12391.67, Nasdaq -3.59 at 2755.31, S&P +2.02 at 1319.39

The major equity averages remain mired near the neutral line. The muddled action comes even though the dollar is trading with a 0.4% loss near its session low.

15:47
EUR/USD posted new session high

The rate gained higher around the London fixing event, extending the ride to $1.4130 area but with little fresh momentum. Area of $1.4145/50 seen to hold further offers but a few stops also cited in the $1.4130/40 zone, to make for some chop.

14:38
Dow +16.43 at 12397.69, Nasdaq +2.00 at 2760.90, S&P +3.78 at 1321.15

Commodities are trading higher except for a select few including natural gas (-0.3%), lean hogs (-0.6%).
Crude oil has been in positive territory all session. The energy component hit session highs of $99.97/barrel minutes ago and is now up 1.9% at $99.51/barrel.
Natural gas has been the laggard in the energy markets after it sold-off when pit trading began. During its morning sell-off, it fell into negative territory, dropped ~2% and hit new session lows of $4.35/MMBtu. In current activity, it's down 0.3% at $4.38/MMBtu.
Both gold and silver has been trading in positive territory all session and are showing a similar chart to crude oil. Gold hit new session highs of $1527.90/oz. about five minutes ago and is now up 0.7% at $1526.50/oz. Silver just hit new session highs as well and is now trading just under that level at $36.23/oz. up 3.8%.
Grain markets just opened and popped higher. Corn futures are 2 cents higher at $7.56/bu, wheat is still down 3 cents at $8.00, even after popping higher at the open, and soybeans are up 10 cents at $13.84/bu.

14:01
US: April new home sales +7.3% to 323k
13:03
Before the bell: Stocks head for modest rebound

U.S. stocks were headed for modest gains Tuesday, looking to recoup losses after eurozone debt jitters sparked a global sell-off in the previous session.

Economy: Traders will be looking for government data on April new home sales, due shortly after the opening bell.
Economists expect the report to show new homes slugged along at prior month's levels, with 300,000 units being sold in April. The housing market remains weak, even though a few recent indicators have started to suggest a gradual recovery.
Companies: Shares of doughnut maker Krispy Kreme (KKD) continued to gain Tuesday, rising 2% in premarket trading. On Monday, Krispy Kreme shares surged more than 20%, after the company posted better-than-expected earnings.
Shares of entertainment products maker Sony (SNE) rebounded, ticking up more than 4% before the opening bell. Shares slipped nearly 4% in the previous session following disappointing quarterly results due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
Commodities: Oil for July delivery gained $1.20, or more than 1%, to $98.90 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery rose $6 to $1,521.40 an ounce.

12:43
EUR/USD tries to set stable

EUR/USD holds around $1.4088 when US hours open. The focus remain on Eurozone periphery with no major data for now. Offers eyed at $1.4120 area, just above the overnight high, bids back at $1.4060.



12:13
EU session review: Euro rises after German IFO

Data released:
06:00     Germany     GDP (Q1) revised    1.5%    1.5%    1.5%
06:00     Germany     GDP (Q1) revised Y/Y    4.9%    4.9%    4.9%
06:45     France     Business confidence (May)    107    109    109 (110)
08:00     Germany     IFO business climate index (May)    114.2    110.0    114.2 (110.4)
08:30     UK     PSNCR (April), bln    3.3    2.0    24.8
08:30     UK     PSNB (April), bln    7.7    5.0    16.4
09:00     EU(17)     Industrial orders (April)    -1.8%    -1.0%    0.5 (0.9)%
09:00     EU(17)     Industrial orders (April) Y/Y     14.1%    12.9%    21.5 (21.3)%
11:30     UK     CBI retail sales volume balance (May)    18%    12%    21%

The euro rose against the dollar as German business confidence unexpectedly stayed near a record in May, fueling bets that the European Central Bank will resume raising interest rates even as the debt crisis intensifies.
The Ifo institute said its business climate index held at 114.2 from April after economists forecast a decline to 113.7.
Europe’s common currency has dropped about 6% from its 2011 high against the dollar on May 4, amid concern that Greece may have to restructure its debt.
A restructuring would be a “horror story” that the central bank cannot accept, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer told reporters today.
The euro pared gains against the yen as a report showed European industrial orders declined more than economists forecast in March. Orders in the euro area slipped 1.8% from February, when they increased 0.5%. Economists had forecast a drop of 1.1%.
The pound fell versus the euro after Moody’s Investors Service placed U.K. financial institutions on review for downgrades and Britain posted a larger budget deficit than predicted.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are among 14 U.K. lenders whose debt Moody’s is considering downgrading as withdrawal of government support may increase their credit risk. The outlook on Barclays Plc (BARC)’s senior debt and deposit ratings was changed to negative from stable, Moody’s said in a statement today.
Britain had net borrowing of 10 billion pounds ($16 billion) last month, the largest for any April since at least 1993, data showed today. The median of  forecasts was for a shortfall of 6.5 billion pound.

EUR/USD tested highs on $1.4115, but failed to hold above the figure and retreated to $1.4070. But decline was weak and there is a room for a second test of highs.

GBP/USD tested $1.6180 after the release of stronger than forecast CBI data, but the report fails to prompt any further rally and rate retreats. Back under $1.6140 to open a deeper move toward $1.6120/15 ahead of $1.6105/00.

USD/JPY challenges Y82.00, correcting from Asian lows around Y81.60.

US data come at 1400GMT with report on New home sales.

11:50
GBP/USD retreats

GBP/USD tested $1.6180 after the release of stronger than forecast CBI data, but the report fails to prompt any further rally and rate retreats. Back under $1.6140 to open a deeper move toward $1.6120/15 ahead of $1.6105/00. Resistance remains toward earlier rally highs at $1.6180.

11:30
UK: CBI Survey: May Reported Sales Balance +18%
11:25
EUR/USD holds tight

EUR/USD holds tight amid some fresh demand interest following Greek opposition leader rejection of austerity plan. However, plan can pass without their support and that caps the losses. Rate trades around $1.4090. Offers remain into $1.4120, more at $1.4145/50. Support $1.4055/50.

11:12
Goldman Sachs on oil

Goldman Sachs has changed its oil forecasts and now expect $130/bbl as 2012 average and $140/bbl year-end forecast for 2012. In addition, GS is also raising its Brent crude oil price forecast to $115/bbl, $120/bbl, and $130/bbl on a 3, 6, and 12 month horizon.

10:53
ECB BINI SMAGHI: Greece needs to implement austerity programme
  • Will do what needed to keep inflation low
  • ECB must make sure not to overreact
10:52
ECB BINI SMAGHI: Greece needs to implement austerity programme
  • Will do what needed to keep inflation low
  • ECB must make sure not to overreact
10:34
EUR/GBP retreats

EUR/GBP extends recovery to stg0.8752, but sellers capped the rise further. A clear above stg0.8755 to open a move toward stg0.8780.  Cross currently holds around stg0.8727.

10:16
EU focus: Dollar rallies on EU debt problems

The dollar held firm near a seven-week high against a basket of currencies and the euro remained on the defensive on Tuesday amid worries that the euro zone's debt crisis could spread to countries like Spain.
Standard & Poor's cut its outlook for Italy to "negative" from "stable" on Saturday, while a crushing defeat for Spain's ruling socialists in local elections raised worries about Prime Minister Jose Luiz Rodrigo Zapatero's ability to meet fiscal targets.
But euro buying from Asian central banks helped stem the euro's decline, with some traders saying that in the near-term there might be a small rebound for the single currency.

"The amount of the euro selling in the past few days has been huge. So I suspect a lot of euro long positions have been cleared. Some may be probably caught in short positions," said a trader at a U.S. bank. "I expect the euro to rebound in the near term, though I still think it's still in a downtrend in the longer run," he said.
The euro has also been suffering from a lack of consensus among European policy-makers on how to deal with Greece, as many opposed the idea of debt restructuring while some market players think it is inevitable.
As worries about the euro zone's debt problems spread, other European currencies also came under pressure. The pound slipped to an eight-week low before erasing gains.
The Swiss currency was hurt by comments from Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan that he is "very worried" about the rise in the franc and that the bank will take action if deflationary pressure emerges as a result of a higher franc.
But the New Zealand dollar gained after a quarterly survey on behalf of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) showed inflation expectations in New Zealand rose in the second quarter.

10:05
Oil rises

July WTI crude extends through $99.00 to $99.13, largely driven by a firmer euro, weaker dollar and a Goldman Sachs forecast of higher Brent Crude prices.

09:50
EUR/USD above $1.4100

EUR/USD lifts above $1.4100, despite reports of Asian sales. rate also rided on speculation we could see some positive statements coming out of Greece. Stops remain in place above $1.4110. Offers then at $1.4120, more at $1.4145/50.

09:26
FTSE +0.35% 5,857, CAC +0.32% 3,919, DAX +0.51% 7,158
09:21
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4100, $1.4200 
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.95, Y82.00, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y114.00, Y115.70, Y116.20, Y117.00
GBP/USD $1.6125
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0600



09:01
EMU: Mar sa industry new orders -1.8% m/m, +14.1% y/y
08:52
Asian session: The euro weakened against the yen

Data:
03:00 New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations (YoY) (Q2) 3.0%

The euro weakened for a third day against the yen on speculation Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is worsening and as the region’s industrial expansion slows.
Europe’s common currency was 0.7 percent from a nine-week low against the dollar before a report forecast to show the region’s industrial orders fell in March. 
The pound slid against 15 of its 16 major peers after Sky News said Moody’s Investors Service will place 14 British banks and building societies on review for downgrades, citing people familiar with the matter. 
New Zealand’s dollar rose versus all its most-traded peers as company executives raised their expectations for inflation.
Europe’s debt crisis has deepened as euro political leaders clashed with central bankers after floating the prospect of extending maturities on Greek bonds. Fitch Ratings yesterday lowered the outlook on Belgium’s credit rating to negative, following Standard & Poor’s May 20 announcement that Italy’s debt rating was at risk of a downgrade.

EUR/USD: the pair tested a mark $1.4000 then become stronger in around $1.4060. 
GBP/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.6070 then returned back above a level $1.6100.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y81.70. 

EMU industrial orders data is due at 0900GMT, although the data is for March and is expected to post a decline at -1.8% m/m. 
US data - at 1400GMT new home sales. 


08:32
UK DATA: Apr PSNB Stg3.5 bn vs Stg15.7 bn in Mar; PSNCR Stg3.6 bn vs -Stg5.8 in Mar
08:08
Asian stock close:

Hang Seng +0.09% 22,730.78
Shanghai Composite -0.27% 2767.06

Nikkei + 0.17% 9477.17

 

08:01
GERMANY: May Ifo business sentiment 114.2
07:56
Forex: Monday's review

The euro slumped to a record low against the Swiss franc amid deepening concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen, damping the appeal of the region’s assets.
The European Central Bank will accept Greece’s government bonds as collateral in its refinancing operations as long as the country’s consolidation program stays on track, Ewald Nowotny, an ECB Governing Council member, told reporters today. Officials said last week it may not be able to take Greek sovereign debt as collateral if bond maturities are extended.
Australia’s dollar was among the worst performers against the greenback after a Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to a 10-month low amid concern the global economic recovery will falter.
The preliminary purchasing managers’ index for China compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to 51.1 in May. It was 51.8 in April. 
China is the nation’s biggest trading partner. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1.4050.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1.6120.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y81.30.  Later restored and finished session in around Y81.90.
The European data calendar for Tuesday starts at 0600GMT with the details of German Q1 GDP. The main European release for Tuesday is likely to be the German Ifo business survey for May, where the business climate index is expected to slip back to a reading of 113.8 from 114.2, while the current assessment is expected to remain 
at 121.0 and the expectations index slipping to a reading of 106.5 from 107.7. EMU industrial orders data is due at 0900GMT, although the data is for March and is expected to post a decline at -1.8% m/m. 
UK data includes the April Public Sector Finances data at 0830GMT. April, the first month of the new fiscal year, should only see modest borrowing requirements. Public Sector Net Borrowing in April last year was stg5.176 billion, and stg6.917 bln in 2009 and it is expected to shrink to stg4.4 bln this time. Also in the UK today, the Bank of 
England's Paul Fisher speaks at 1100GMT, while at 1130GMT, the CBI Distributive Trades data for May is expected to see the reported sales balance post a decline to 12 from a reading of 21.
US data - at 1400GMT new home sales. 

07:04
Stocks: Monday's review

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average declined the most in six weeks as makers of construction equipment declined after Nomura Holdings Inc. said demand in China will cool and Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit rating.
Construction-machinery makers dropped after Nomura cut its estimate for equipment sales in China by 20 percent for the year ending March 2012, citing measures by authorities to rein in inflation. In addition to raising interest rates, The People’s Bank of China has lifted reserve requirement ratios for major banks eight times since mid-November to curb lending in an economy where price gains exceed a government target of 4 percent.
Komatsu plunged 5.9 percent to 2,381 yen and was the most- actively traded stock in Japan. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. declined 6 percent to 1,676 yen. Kobe Steel Ltd. (5406) dropped 3.8 percent to 176 yen. Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. (7012) lost 4.9 percent to 291 yen.
Canon Inc. (7751), a camera maker that gets more than 30 percent of its sales in Europe, lost 1 percent.
Tokyo Electric Power Co. slumped 9 percent after the utility reported the biggest loss among the country’s nonfinancial companies. The company reported a full-year net loss of 1.25 trillion yen ($15.3 billion) following the accident at its Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant.
Fanuc Corp. (6954), an industrial-robot maker that gets about half of its sales from China, lost 4.1 percent to 12,300 yen and was the heaviest drag on the Nikkei.

European stocks dropped to a one- month low after Spain’s ruling party suffered its worst election defeat in 30 years and Standard & Poor’s warned it may downgrade Italy’s debt.
Banco Santander SA (SAN), Spain’s largest bank, and Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) led a selloff in financial shares, both falling more than 1.5 percent.
Credit Agricole SA (ACA) sank 3 percent to 10.53 euros after S&P downgraded the counterparty credit rating for France’s third- largest lender to A+/A-1 from AA-/A-1+, saying the bank has a “significant sensitivity” to Greece’s creditworthiness and economic prospects.
Commerzbank lost 5.3 percent to 3.74 euros in Frankfurt after announcing plans to raise capital by selling new shares to help repay state aid. Germany’s second-biggest bank will sell 2.44 billion new shares at 2.18 euros apiece. Shareholders will be allowed to subscribe to 10 new shares for every 11 already held from May 24 to June 6, the company said.
Ryanair retreated 5.3 percent to 3.36 euros as Europe’s biggest discount airline said it will cut capacity for the first time in its history next winter as higher fuel costs threaten to render swathes of the network unprofitable.
The airline said annual profit will be “similar” to last year’s amid slower growth in demand. The airline still reported a 26 percent jump in full-year adjusted profit after taxes to 401 million euros.
Air France-KLM (AF) Group slumped 4.5 percent to 11.46 euros in Paris trading, while EasyJet Plc lost 4.9 percent to 345.1 pence. Lufthansa, Europe’s biggest airline by sales, sank 3.5 percent to 15.03 euros.
Anglo American Plc (AAL) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) led a selloff in commodity producers as base metals fell in London and crude oil tumbled in New York. Anglo American declined 4.1 percent to 2,830.5 pence, Antofagasta Plc (ANTO) lost 3.9 percent to 1,160 pence and Shell dropped 2.3 percent to 2,095 pence.

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Monday as simmering worries about Europe's debt problems boiled over, sending investors in search of safety.
The selling was broad-based, with all 30 Dow components in the red. Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and Du Pont (DD, Fortune 500) were the biggest laggards on the blue-chip index.
Financial stocks also faltered, with shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) all down more than 1%.
Companies: Shares of entertainment products maker Sony (SNE) slipped nearly 4%. The company posted a $3.19 billion annual loss and cut its full-year earnings outlook to reflect damages of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
Shares of Krispy Kreme (KKD) jumped more than 20% after the doughnut maker beat earnings per share by 4 cents on strong sales.
Commodities: Oil for July delivery fell $2.40 to settle at $97.70 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery rose $6.50 to $1,515.40 an ounce.

06:53
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y83.10 (Apr 20 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 1: Y82.10/20 (session high, May 19 high) 
Current price: Y81.80
Support 1:Y81.75 (session low)  
Support 2:Y81.50 (support line from May 5)  
Support 3:Y81.30 (May 23 low)  
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Y81.75. Below losses are possible to Y81.50. The nearest resistance - Y82.10/20. Above growth is possible to Y82.80.         

06:46
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9010 (Apr 19 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8950 (May 13 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8890 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8856
Support 1: Chf0.8840 (МА(200) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.8750 (May 20 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (May 10 low)
Comments: the pair slightly become stronger. The nearest resistance Chf0.8890. Above is located Chf0.8950. The nearest support - Chf0,8840. Below loss may extend  to Chf0.8750. 

06:44
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6240 (resistance line from May 2)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6210 (МА(200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6130 (session high)
Current price: $1.6109
Support 1 : $1.6060 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5930 (low of March, МА (200) for D1)
Support 3 : $1.5900 (61.8 % FIBO $1.5340-$ 1.6750)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6100. The nearest support $1.6060. Below  decrease is possible  to $1.5930. The nearest resistance - $1.6130. Above growth is  possible to $1.6210. 

06:32
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4220 (support line from May 4)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4140 (May 23 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4070 (session high)
Current price: $1.4061
Support 1 : $1.3970 (May 23 low)
Support 2 : $1.3910 (50.0 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.4940)
Support 3 : $1.3850 (Mar 15 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4060. The nearest support $1,3970. Below losses are possible to $1.3910. The nearest resistance - $1.4070. Above growth is possible to $1,4140. 

06:25
BELGIUM: Fitch Ratings revised Belgium's rating outlook to negative from stable and affirmed its 'AA+' rating, late Monday.
06:01
Germany 1q real sa GDP +1.5% q/q; wda +4.9% y/y
05:58
Schedule for today, Tuesday, May 24 2011:

06:00 Germany GDP (Q1) revised 1.5% 1.5%
06:00 Germany GDP (Q1) revised Y/Y 4.9% 4.9%
08:00 Germany IFO business climate index (May) 110.0 110.4
08:30 UK PSNCR (April), bln  24.8
08:30 UK PSNB (April), bln 5.0 16.4
09:00 EU(17) Industrial orders (April) 1.0% 0.9%
09:00 EU(17) Industrial orders (April) Y/Y 12.9% 21.3%
10:00 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (May) 12% 21%
14:00 USA New home sales (April) 295K 300K
23:50 Japan Trade balance (April) unadjusted, trln 0.704 0.197
23:50 Japan BoJ meeting minutes (28.04)

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