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23.12.2010
14:59
US: Nov new home sales +5.5% to 290k
14:54
US: Dec final Rtrs/UMich consumer sentiment 74.5f vs 74.2p and 71.6 in Nov.
14:39
Pierpont Securities says the data dump showed the labor mkt has improved. CS says consumption is running +3.7% in Q4.
14:14
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised to open little changed Thursday morning ahead of a slew of economic reports, and as gas topped $3 a gallon for the first time in more than two years.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) and S&P 500 (SPX) futures were nearly flat, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) futures down 0.2%.

On Wednesday, Stocks climbed to fresh two-year highs. Trading is usually light in the sessions before the holidays, but investors are focusing on -- and feeling bullish about -- 2011.

The University of Michigan's final reading on consumer sentiment in December is due after the start of trading. It's expected to tick up to 74.8, from 74.2 in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the new home sales index for November from the Census Bureau is due at 1500 GMT. The index is expected to have risen to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000 units, from a 283,000 unit rate in the previous month.
World markets:

Gold futures for February delivery fell $7.00 to $1,380.40 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was slightly lower, pushing the yield up to 3.38%.
U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the holiday weekend.

13:51
Gold has slipped back this morning from earlier highs of $1388.50 through support at $1381 to a low of $1378.70.
Further near term support lies at $1376 with a break there opeing the door down to $1365.Spot gold currently trades around $1380.
13:39
US DATA:

Initial jobless claims -3k to 420k, in Dec 18 wk

Nov durables orders -1.3% in a 2nd drop (and down 3 of last 4 mos), ex transport +2.4%, ex defense -2.3%.

Nov Pers Income +0.3%, PCE +0.4%, PCE core prices +0.1% for +0.8% YOY (low since 1960).

Real PCE +0.3% after +0.5% in Oct

13:30
CANADA: Oct GDP +0.2% m/m vs Sep -0.1%
12:53
EUR/USD under pressure
EUR/USD remains under $1.3100 with traders report that the decent sized bid interest placed between $1.3080/70 is still in place. Rate currently trades around $1.3092 after touching a low of $1.3083.
12:41
EU session review: Dollar declines on speculation U.S. economy improving; Yen climbs on China

Data released
09:30   United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals    30.0K    31.3K    30.7K   
09:30   United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) (Oct)     0.6%    0.4%    0.5%

The dollar fell on speculation reports today will signal the U.S. economic recovery is gathering pace, luring investors away from the currency in favor of higher-yielding assets.
The yen gained as concern China is taking steps to cool its economy drove demand for the currency as a refuge.
The Commerce Ministry ordered local authorities to halt approval of some foreign property investments to curb speculative buying.
“It’s a risk aversion story and euro-yen is leading the way,” said Jeremy Stretch at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “With continuing concerns about what’s going to happen in China in terms of further monetary tightening and what impact that will have, there are enough negatives out there to keep people on the defensive in what are very thin and choppy markets.”
The New Zealand dollar gained as Finance Minister Bill English said the nation’s economic expansion will accelerate next year.

EUR/USD holds within the $1.3075/$1.3180 range for two days. Today rate printed session high on $1.3150 before retreated to $1.3093.

GBP/USD tested channel resistance line at $1.5430 before weakened to $1.5370/$1.5407 range.

USD/JPY fell from Y83.50 to Y83.05. Rate tried to recover to Y83.20, but failed. Rate refreshed session lows on Y82.80.

It is a busy US calendar, starting at 1300GMT with the Building  Permits Revision but heating up at 1330GMT with Durable Goods Jobless  Claims and also Personal Income data.
Durable goods orders are forecast to fall 1.0% in November after sharp movements in the previous two months.
Initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at a 420,000 level.
Personal income is expected to rise a modest 0.3% in November.
At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to a reading of 74.6 in December.
At 1500GMT, new home sales are expected to rise to a 304,000 annual rate in November after dipping to a near record low in October.

12:29
HUNGARY: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Republic of Hungary's Long-term rating (IDR) to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' and the outlooks remain Negative.
12:05
GBP/JPY fell to year low

GBP/JPY opened at Y128.58 and briefly rallied to Y128.76 before being dragged down by the early dollar move to a low of Y128.06. This was then extended in Europe to Y127.40 (year low of Y126.45 seen on Oct 25).

11:53
EUR/JPY holds at lows

EUR/JPY fell sharply from earlier Asia highs of Y109.62 to Y108.80. A further fall on sales from a UK clearer set a low of Y108.50, with traders now targeting Nov 30 of Y108.35.

11:27
EU stocks

European stock-index futures were little changed before U.S. reports that may show spending by U.S. consumers and businesses accelerated in November. Asian shares gained and U.S. futures fluctuated.

Rio Tinto advanced 0.5%. The world’s third-biggest mining company offered A$3.9 billion ($3.9 billion) for Australian coking coal developer Riversdale Mining to gain reserves in Mozambique as demand rises.
Suedzucker AG may be active as shares of the world’s largest sugar refiner were downgraded to “hold” from “buy” at UniCredit SpA.
Ericsson AB may decline as the world’s biggest maker of mobile-phone networks was cut to “neutral” from “buy” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

10:50
EU focus: China support steadies euro, outlook shaky into 2011

The euro steadied against the dollar and the Swiss franc on Thursday, helped by supportive comments from China, but analysts said the outlook for the single currency was shaky, with fresh losses expected into 2011.

Liquidity was at a premium in currency markets ahead of year-end, with traders saying flows were having a bigger impact on price than fundamentals.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said China was willing to help countries in the euro zone return to economic health and would support the International Monetary Fund bailout package for the bloc.
A Portuguese newspaper report on Wednesday suggested China was ready to buy significant amounts of Portuguese debt to try to instil confidence in the country's ailing economy.
But the single currency's outlook remained shaky at best and more losses into 2011 are seen likely as the euro zone debt crisis looks set to drag on.
"We expect further weakness for the euro by the end of the first quarter of 2011, and in the near term a break of the 200-day moving average will be important," said Elsa Lignos, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "As long as there are periphery concerns in the euro zone, a lower euro/Swiss is very hard to fight," Lignos said.
Investors have been flocking to the safe-haven status of the Swiss franc and shifting out of euros on worries that the euro zone debt crisis will rumble on.
"Our next target for EURCHF is 1.2400," BNP Paribas strategists said. "The CHF is currently driven by capital rather than trade flows and thus remains well supported against the EUR as deposit inflows continue."
The Australian dollar was back at parity against the greenback thanks to optimism about the global economy, which has supported commodity prices.


10:36
EUR/USD at $1.3100

EUR/USD back below $1.3100, extending lows to $1.3088. Traders now reporting demand at $1.3080 ahead of earlier reports of bid interest at $1.3075. Stops remain in place at $1.3060.

10:20
EUR/GBP retreates

EUR/GBP edged to an early high in Europe of stg0.8526, but reported decent sell interest placed toward stg0.8530 again able to counter. Rate currently trades around stg0.8515. Bids stg0.8505/00.

09:19
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3200, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y84.00, Y84.25
EUR/JPY Y107.50
GBP/USD $1.5370
USD/CHF Chf0.9650
AUD/USD $0.9900, $0.9845
NZD/USD $0.7350
USD/CAD C$1.0100


08:56
Asian session: The pound rose

The pound rose for the first time in five days after a Bank of England official said in a newspaper interview that he expects interest rates to rise.
The British currency rebounded from near a three-month low after BOE Markets Director Paul Fisher told the Daily Telegraph the U.K.’s borrowing costs will “head back to a normalized position” of 5 percent.
The yen gained for a fourth day versus the dollar, its longest streak since Oct. 8, on signs China is taking more measures to cool growth.
New Zealand’s currency surged as Finance Minister Bill English said the nation’s economic expansion will accelerate next year.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3150 then decreased.

GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,5430 then decreased.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased below mark Y83,00.


UK data at 0930GMT includes the latest Index of Services data as  well as the latest BBA Loans for House Purchase.
It is a busy US calendar, starting at 1300GMT with the Building  Permits Revision but heating up at 1330GMT with Durable Goods Jobless  Claims and also Personal Income data. Durable goods orders are forecast to fall 1.0% in November after sharp movements in the previous two months. Boeing reported 17 aircraft orders in November, down sharply from 108 in October. Initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at a 420,000 level in the December 18 employment survey week, down from the 441,000 level in the November 13 employment survey week. While claims have been on a downward trend, the four-week moving average is
likely to rise in the current week unless claims fall below 410,000.
Personal income is expected to rise a modest 0.3% in November, as payrolls were up only 39,000, the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours, and hourly earnings growth was flat. However, PCE is expected to rise 0.5% in the month, as retail sales rose 0.8% and non-auto retail sales was up 1.2%. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.1% after two flat readings in September and October. At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to a reading of 74.6 in December, still well above the 71.6 final reading for November. At 1500GMT, new home sales are expected to rise to a 304,000 annual rate in November after dipping to a near record low in October.
Late data then sees the 2130GMT release of M2 money supply data.

08:52
Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar declined to a one-week low against the yen after reports showed U.S. economic growth and existing homes sales increased less than forecast, damping demand for U.S. denominated assets. “Yields are a little bit lower and that is weighing on the dollar-yen,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., a currency brokerage. “We can tie that back to the slightly disappointing GDP.”
The greenback fluctuated versus its major counterparts after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter, compared with the 2.8% pace forecast. The euro gained earlier as German import prices in November climbed the most in a decade.
The Swiss franc strengthened to a record against the common currency for a sixth day on refuge demand linked to the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis. “The Swiss franc continues to perform extremely well,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research with online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “When we move to a stronger growth scenario, countries such as Switzerland that have healthier balances will really outperform.” Portugal’s bond rating may be downgraded one or two levels by Moody’s Investors Service after the company warned yesterday of concern that budget cuts will worsen the country’s “sluggish” growth. Greece may have its credit rating cut to non-investment grade by Fitch Ratings within six weeks. The euro has dropped 10.5% so far this year, the biggest loss among the 10 developed nations. The dollar has lost 1.1% and the yen has added 11.5%.
The pound fell versus the euro after a report showed the U.K. economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated in the third quarter. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the third quarter. That compares with an initial estimate of 0.8%. Second-quarter growth was revised to 1.1% from 1.2%. Minutes of the Bank of England’s December meeting showed policy makers remained split in their decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.5 percent and the asset-purchase program unchanged at 200 billion pounds.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1,3100.

GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1,5400.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,40-Y83,90.


UK data at 0930GMT includes the latest Index of Services data as  well as the latest BBA Loans for House Purchase.
It is a busy US calendar, starting at 1300GMT with the Building  Permits Revision but heating up at 1330GMT with Durable Goods Jobless  Claims and also Personal Income data. Durable goods orders are forecast to fall 1.0% in November after sharp movements in the previous two months. Boeing reported 17 aircraft orders in November, down sharply from 108 in October. Initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady at a 420,000 level in the December 18 employment survey week, down from the 441,000 level in the November 13 employment survey week. While claims have been on a downward trend, the four-week moving average is
likely to rise in the current week unless claims fall below 410,000.
Personal income is expected to rise a modest 0.3% in November, as payrolls were up only 39,000, the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours, and hourly earnings growth was flat. However, PCE is expected to rise 0.5% in the month, as retail sales rose 0.8% and non-auto retail sales was up 1.2%. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.1% after two flat readings in September and October. At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to a reading of 74.6 in December, still well above the 71.6 final reading for November. At 1500GMT, new home sales are expected to rise to a 304,000 annual rate in November after dipping to a near record low in October.
Late data then sees the 2130GMT release of M2 money supply data.

07:35
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 0.2 percent, erasing gains of as much as 0.2 percent, after the government said it is becoming more pessimistic about exports and business sentiment. The country’s export growth accelerated for the first time in nine months in November, data released today showed.
Canon Inc., the world’s largest maker of cameras that gets about 28 percent of sales from the U.S., increased 1.9 percent in Tokyo. Mitsui & Co., which counts commodities as its biggest source of profit, gained 0.7 percent. Sanyo Electric Co., a maker of rechargeable batteries, slumped 5.1 percent after its parent Panasonic Corp. announced plans to delist the company.

European stocks advanced for a third day, extending a 27-month high, as U.S. economic growth was revised higher and merger activity boosted companies from Hermes International SCA to Aker Solutions ASA.
ARM Holdings Plc soared 9.1 percent after Microsoft Corp. was said to be preparing to unveil a full version of its Windows operating system that runs on the U.K. company’s technology. Hermes gained 2.3 percent as LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA raised its stake in the luxury-goods company. Aker Solutions, Norway’s largest engineering company, climbed 4.3 percent as Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. agreed to buy some of its units.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1 percent to 281.45 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. The gauge has rallied 11 percent in 2010, recovering all its losses from the plunge that followed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in 2008, as companies reported higher earnings, the European Union bailed out Greece and Ireland and the Federal Reserve unveiled $600 billion of additional bond purchases to support the recovery.

U.S. stocks gained, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a fifth day, as government data showed the economy grew last quarter at a faster pace than previously estimated.
Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose at least 2 percent after lawmakers denied budget increases that regulators said were needed to meet responsibilities imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act. Walgreen Co. jumped 7 percent after the largest U.S. drugstore chain reported profit that beat analyst estimates. Carnival Corp. jumped 4.3 percent as S&P equity analysts advised buying the stock.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,257.25 at 2:04 p.m. in New York, reaching the highest since Sept. 8, 2008, on a closing basis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 19.71 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,552.87.
The S&P 500 yesterday completed its recovery from the six- month plunge that followed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September 2008, extending its rally from a bear- market low in March 2009 to 85 percent. The index will end 2011 at 1,374, according to the average forecast of 11 strategists at Wall Street’s biggest banks.
The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, marking a pickup in growth that may extend into 2011 as companies and consumers gain confidence to spend. The revised increase in gross domestic product compares with a 2.5 percent estimate issued last month and was less than the median forecast of a 2.8 percent in a Bloomberg News survey.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 0.5 percent annual pace, the slowest since record-keeping began in 1959, today’s report showed. Inventories rose more than initially reported, while the rise in household purchases was revised down.

07:32
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.20 (Sep 17 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1:Y83.60 (session high)
Current price: Y83.71
Support 1:Y82.80/90 (Dec 14 low, 38,2 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)
Support 2:Y82.30 (Dec 7 low, 50,0 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)

Support 3:Y81.90 (61,8% FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)

Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Y82,80/90. Below losses are possible to Y82.30. The nearest resistance - Y83,60. Above growth is possible to Y83.90. 

07:30
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 low, Dec 17-20 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9640 (resistance line from Dec 2)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9520 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9507
Support 1: Chf0.9500 (Dec 22 low, session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9460 (low of October)
Support 3: Chf0.9400 (psychological mark)

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support Chf0,9500. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9450. The nearest resistance Chf0,9520. Above is located Chf0.9640.

07:23
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5560 (Dec 21 high, 38,2% FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5360)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5490 (Dec 22 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5430 (session high)
Current price: $1.5424
Support 1 : $1.5350 (Dec 22 high)
Support 2 : $1.5300 (low of September)
Support 3 : $1.5120 (Jul 21 low)

Comments: the pair receded from yesterday's low. The nearest resistance - $1,5430. Above growth is possible to $1,5490. The nearest support - $1,5360. Below decrease is possible to $1.5300.

07:19
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 2: $ 1.3360 (Dec 17 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3230 (MA(200) for H1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3195 (Dec 21 high, resistance line from Dec 14)
Current price: $1.3127
Support 1 : $1.3075 (Dec 21 low)
Support 2 : $1.2970 (low of December and November)
Support 3 : $1.2790 (61.8% FIBO $1,1870-$ 1,4285)


Comments: tech hasn't changed. The nearest resistance - $1,3195. Above growth is possible to $1,3230. The nearest support - $1,3075. Below decrease is possible to $1.2970.

06:27
Schedule for today, Thursday, Dec'23'2010:

09:30    United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals        31.3K    30.7K   
13:30     Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Oct)         0.3%    -0.1%
13:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 18.12)         420K    420K
13:30     USA     Durable goods orders (November)         -0.6%    -3.3%
13:30     USA     Durable goods orders excluding transportation (November)         -    -2.7%
13:30     USA     Durable goods orders excluding defence (November)         -    -2.1%
13:30     USA     Personal income (November)         0.3%    0.5%
13:30     USA     Personal spending (November)         0.5%    0.4%
14:55     USA     Michigan sentiment index (December) final         74.5    74.2
15:00     USA     New home sales (November)         300K    283K

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