CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-07-2014

During the U.S. session on Forex euro was little changed against the dollar, while continuing to bargain about eight-month low. Affect the course of trading yesterday the U.S. inflation data. Recall that inflation in the U.S. in June coincided with the forecast, rising by 0.3 percent, but core inflation - excluding prices for food and energy - was 0.1 per cent, that is twice lower than forecast. Despite this, the market still expects the Fed will continue to reduce the bond purchase program and start raising interest rates in the second half of 2015. Experts note that the U.S. will raise interest rates next year, while in Europe, on the contrary, perhaps easing.

Slight pressure on the euro have concerns about Russia. It is expected that the EU will introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Pound fell sharply against the dollar, while setting a new minimum in July in connection with the publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England and the data on mortgage lending. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England from July 9-10, showed: Committee members, as expected, voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5%, and for the preservation of the current size of its asset purchase program £ 375 billion in addition, the Central Bank mentioned that refloat may reflect the performance of the British economy in comparison with other countries. Economy continues to grow modestly, but some indicators warn of a possible slowdown in the speed of the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Central Bank suggested that a potential threat to economic recovery in the event of a rate hike now decreased, and a number of representatives MPC noted that over the past few months, the balance of factors in favor of tightening has become more balanced. However, the Central Bank did not mention the possible timing of the first rate hike, explaining that they will depend on the data.

As for the report, it showed: in the past month, the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased slightly, recovering from a nine-month low, which was recorded in April and May. But despite the increase, the last value was slightly less than the average forecast of experts. According to the report, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in June to 43,265, compared with the revised figure for May at 41 881 (originally reported 41.8 million). Compared with the same period last year, the number of approved loans increased by 14 percent. In the British Bankers Association said: July growth was the first after the mortgage lenders have introduced more stringent lending criteria in April.

European stocks were little changed, as investors considered earnings from companies including Akzo Nobel NV and GlaxoSmithKline Plc, while a measure of consumer confidence unexpectedly declined.

Data this month showed euro-area retail sales increased in May from a year earlier, while car registrations climbed in June. In the U.S., a report showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell in the week ended July 12.

Still, shares pared gains after a report showed euro-area consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in July. An index of household confidence in the 18-nation euro zone decreased to minus 8.4 from minus 7.5 in June, the European Commission in Brussels said in a preliminary release. That fell short of the median forecast of minus 7.5 in a Bloomberg News survey.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western-European markets. France's CAC 40 advanced 0.2 percent, Germany's DAX increased 0.2 percent, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 added less than 0.1 percent.

The European Union is weighing limiting Russia's access to capital markets. Two planes carrying bodies from flight MH17 left eastern Ukraine today for the Netherlands. The U.S. has indicated it believes Russia supplied the missile that downed the Malaysia Airlines jet last week, killing all 298 people on board.

Akzo Nobel rose 3.9 percent to 54.23 euros. Europe's largest paintmaker said second-quarter operating profit rose 10 percent to 353 million euros ($475 million), driven by demand for household coatings in Asia and parts of Europe. Analysts had estimated 340 million euros.

Outotec surged 7.5 percent to 8.21 euros. Weir may consider buying the Finnish company after it failed in a bid for mine-equipment supplier Metso Oyj earlier this year, according to newspapers including the Daily Mail, which said Weir could offer 12 euros a share.

GlaxoSmithKline dropped 4.7 percent to 1,481.5 pence. The U.K.'s biggest drugmaker posted second-quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates as sales of its respiratory drugs in the U.S. remained sluggish. The company also cut its forecast for the year.

Deutsche Bank lost 0.7 percent to 26.48 euros, paring losses of as much as 2.8 percent. The Wall Street Journal said that bank overseers faulted some of the German lender's U.S. businesses last year for "inaccurate and unreliable" financial reports. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York review of the company's U.S. operations also found they suffered from inadequate oversight and auditing, as well as weak technology, the newspaper said, citing documents it reviewed.

STMicroelectronics NV fell 5.8 percent to 6.56 euros. Europe's largest semiconductor maker reported an 8.9 percent decline in second-quarter revenue to $1.86 billion, even as it posted its first profit in 11 quarters.

West Texas Intermediate oil rose after a government report showed stockpiles dropped at Cushing, Oklahoma, the contract's delivery point. Brent gained as fighting intensified in eastern Ukraine.

Cushing supplies fell by 1.45 million barrels to 18.8 million last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. The decline left stockpiles at the lowest level since November 2008, data from the EIA, the Energy Department's statistical arm, showed. Separatists shot down two Ukrainian fighter jets in the same region where Malaysian Air flight MH17 was destroyed, the government said.

WTI for September delivery advanced 28 cents to $102.67 a barrel at 10:33 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The August contract expired yesterday after losing 17 cents to $104.42. The volume of all futures traded was 16 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for September settlement rose 39 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $107.72 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a $5.05 premium to WTI, up from $4.94 at yesterday's close.

Nationwide crude stockpiles fell 3.97 million barrels to 371 million in the week ended July 18, EIA data showed. A 2.9 million-barrel decline in supply was projected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Gold traded in a narrow range amid a lack of macroeconomic data from the U.S., while investors continue to monitor the situation in Ukraine.

Gold prices rose in recent months against the backdrop of escalating conflict between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists, located in the east of the country. What happened recently Malaysian Airlines plane crash in eastern Ukraine increased investor interest in gold as a safe haven against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions. Authority of the West think that the plane was shot down by pro-Russian separatists.

Tuesday train human remains after the collapse of the Malaysian ship arrived in Kharkov, Ukrainian-controlled central government. Pro-Russian militia handed Malaysian officials "black boxes", that is the flight recorders.

"However, since no applications have been received from Moscow, and the Russian military are still at the Ukrainian border, probably (for Russia) will introduce new sanctions" - written by Liz Grant, Senior Sucden Financial, in a note to clients .

EU finance ministers on Tuesday tightened sanctions against Russia and threatened restrictions on trade and other military equipment, unless Moscow will cooperate and do not flatten the conflict.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX trading today in the range of $ 1305.10 - $ 1311.80 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3545-50

USD/JPY Y101.70, Y101.85, Y102.15-20

EUR/JPY Y136.75

EUR/GBP Stg0.7990-0.8000

USD/CHF Chf0.8875, Chf0.9050

AUD/USD $0.9325, $0.9350

USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800

U.S. stock futures advanced as investors weighed earnings from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Apple Inc. to assess the strength of the economy.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,328.56 -14.72 -0.10%

Hang Seng 23,971.87 +189.76 +0.80%

Shanghai Composite 2,078.49 +3.01 +0.14%

FTSE 6,796.82 +1.48 +0.02%

CAC 4,389.13 +19.61 +0.45%

DAX 9,782.45 +48.12 +0.49%

Crude oil $102.47 (+0.08%)

Gold $1309.20 (+0.22%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Data:

1:30 Australia Consumer Price Index q / q II m +0.6% +0.5% +0.5%

01:30 AU CPI y / y +2.9% m II +3.1% +3.0%

08:30 UK approved applications for mortgage loans as BBA, th June 41.9 43.4 43.3

08:30 UK BoE Minutes

10:00 UK Retail sales according to the Confederation of British Industry on July 4 18 21

11:45 UK Speech BOE Mark Carney

Pound fell sharply against the dollar, while setting a new minimum in July, which was associated with the publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England and the data on mortgage lending. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England from July 9-10, showed that members of the Committee, as expected, voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5%, and for the preservation of the current size of its asset purchase program £ 375 billion in addition, the Central Bank mentioned that the strengthening of the pound may reflect the performance of the British economy in comparison with other countries. Economy continues to grow modestly, but some indicators warn of a possible slowdown in the speed of the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Central Bank has suggested that a potential threat to economic recovery in the event of a rate hike now decreased, and a number of representatives MPC noted that over the past few months, the balance of factors in favor of tightening has become more balanced. However, the Central Bank did not mention the possible timing of the first rate hike, explaining that they will depend on the data.

As for the report, it showed: in the past month, the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased slightly, recovering from a nine-month low, which was recorded in April and May. But despite the increase, the last value was slightly less than the average forecast of experts. According to the report, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in June to 43,265, compared with the revised figure for May at 41 881 (originally reported 41.8 million). Compared with the same period last year, the number of approved loans increased by 14 percent. In the British Bankers Association reported that the July increase was the first after the mortgage lenders have introduced more stringent lending criteria in April.

The euro was little changed against the dollar, while continuing to bargain about eight-month low. Affect the course of trading yesterday the U.S. inflation data. Recall that inflation in the U.S. in June coincided with the forecast, rising by 0.3 percent, but core inflation - excluding prices for food and energy - was 0.1 percent, which is twice lower than forecast. Despite this, the market still expects the Fed will continue to reduce the bond purchase program and start raising interest rates in the second half of 2015. Experts note that the U.S. will raise interest rates next year, while in Europe the opposite is possible easing.

Slight pressure on the euro have concerns about Russia. It is expected that the EU will introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation.

The Australian dollar continued its rise and came close to the maximum on July 7. The course of trade is still affecting the publication of the government report on the level of annual inflation, which accelerated at the fastest pace in four years. Core inflation index, according to the Central Bank (by the trimmed mean) rose by 0.8% compared with the previous quarter. In accordance with the average forecast of economists index had gained 0.6%. The consumer price index rose by 0.5% compared with the previous three months, which corresponds to the economists.

In addition, the Australian dollar rose as investors expect that in the coming months, the Reserve Bank of Australia, led by Glenn Stevens will not reduce the interest rate, which is already at a record low level of 2.5%. According to recent polls traders, chances are that the Central Bank will cut rates by December is only 17%, whereas a week ago, the probability was 36%.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3453 - $ 1.3472

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7029

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.31

At 12:30 GMT, Canada announces the change of volume of retail sales for May. At 21:00 GMT New Zealand RBNZ decision will be announced on the basic interest rate and will cover the RBNZ statement. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will report on its trade balance for June. At 23:50 GMT, Japan declares total foreign trade balance for June.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3530

Bids $1.3400, $1.3360

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115

Bids $1.7040/35, $1.7005/00, $1.6950

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9450

Bids $0.9380, $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.50

Bids Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.35, Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.80

Bids Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35

Bids stg0.7880, stg0.7850, stg0.7800

European stock indices show moderate increase, which is associated with the publication of corporate reporting and geopolitical factors. Futures on American stock indexes little changed, while Asian shares rose.

Investors remained cautious after the European Union on Tuesday threatened Russia with more severe sanctions on Ukraine. EU ministers agreed to expand the list of persons and entities whose assets are frozen and which will apply visa sanctions. U.S. counting on stricter sanctions that would have pushed Moscow to cooperate in the international investigation airliner crash in Malaysia.

At the same time, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called on Hamas for a truce in the conflict between Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip.

Little influenced by the Bank of England meeting minutes, which showed: Committee members, as expected, voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5%, and for the preservation of the current size of its asset purchase program £ 375 billion Central Bank suggested that the potential threat to economic recovery in the event of a rate hike now decreased, and a number of representatives MPC noted that over the past few months, the balance of factors in favor of tightening has become more balanced. However, the Central Bank did not mention the possible timing of the first rate hike, explaining that they will depend on incoming economic data. This fact provoked a decrease of the British currency. In addition, the Central Bank mentioned that the strengthening of the pound may reflect the performance of the British economy in comparison with other countries. Economy continues to grow modestly, but some indicators warn of a possible slowdown in the speed of the 2nd half.

Stock price Daimler AG, the world's third largest car manufacturer of class "luxury", grew by 1.8%, after reporting that second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes amounted to 2.46 billion euros, compared with forecasts for level 2 38 billion euros.

STMicroelectronics shares decline 3.70 point%, despite reporting the first profit in the last 11 quarters. The company also said that revenue fell 8.9% to $ 1.86 billion

The price of the world's leading manufacturer of paint products Akzo Nobel NV jumped 3.9%. Financial results for the 2nd quarter were better than market expectations. Operating profit increased by 10% to 353 million euros, with the consensus forecast of 340 million euros.

Repsol shares fell 0.2% amid reports that the Spanish oil and gas giant is considering buying Talisman Energy, to invest funds received as compensation for loss of share in the Argentine YPF.

Quotes securities Deutsche Bank AG fell 1.1%. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Federal Reserve Bank drew attention to the poor quality of reporting in the United States.

The value of shares Outotec - Finnish manufacturer of mining equipment - jumped 9.8%. British newspapers wrote on Wednesday that the company is ready to buy Outotec Wier at a price of 12 euros per share.

At that moment:

FTSE 100 6,821.24 +25.90 +0.38%

CAC 40 4,395.28 +25.76 +0.59%

DAX 9,797.17 +62.84 +0.65%

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3545-50

USD/JPY Y101.70, Y101.85, Y102.15-20

EUR/JPY Y136.75

EUR/GBP Stg0.7990-0.8000

USD/CHF Chf0.8875, Chf0.9050

AUD/USD $0.9325, $0.9350

USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800

Asian stocks advanced for a third day, with the regional benchmark index extending a six-year high, as U.S. inflation data damped concerns interest-rate increases will be brought forward.

HANG SENG 23,912.76 +130.65 +0.55%

S&P/ASX 200 5,576.7 +33.41 +0.60%

TOPIX 1,272.39 -0.88 -0.07%

SHANGHAI COMP 2,078.49 +3.01 +0.14%

Lotte Confectionery Co. surged 8.1 percent to a record close after the chocolate maker's parent moved to unwind cross shareholdings within the group.

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. rose 1 percent in Hong Kong after customer Apple Inc. reported higher profit as iPhone sales jumped.

Tokyo Electron Ltd. slipped 2.9 percent after a report said its proposed merger with Applied Materials Inc. was opposed by China.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3577 (1185)

$1.3547 (483)

$1.3504 (85)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3464

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3441 (2593)

$1.3421 (7739)

$1.3395 (3828)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26675 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3873);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34820 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7739);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.31 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 22

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7301 (1362)

$1.7202 (1667)

$1.7105 (2069)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7074

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6995 (2985)

$1.6898 (2120)

$1.6799 (1398)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16562 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2422);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23671 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2985);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.43 versus 1.43 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

---

Australia's dollar strengthened to the highest in almost two weeks after a government report showed annual inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in four years. The statistics bureau said the annual trimmed mean inflation rate increased to 2.9 percent, the highest level since the three months ended March 2010. The central bank targets inflation of between 2 percent and 3 percent on average.

The Aussie advanced at least 0.2 percent versus all its 16 major counterparts as traders pared bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates this year. Traders see a 17 percent chance the RBA will cut its 2.5 percent key rate by December, down from a 36 percent probability a week ago, according to interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

The euro fell versus most of its major peers before a report that economists said will show a gauge of consumer sentiment stayed negative in July.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3470-80

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.7075

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y101.40

BOE MPC Minutes released at 0830GMT provide the morning focus. Traders expect a unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, the main interest will be if there is any hawkish split, though recent weak earnings data may offset the strong UK data and dampen rate hike calls.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 104.42 0.00%

Gold 1,307.50 +0.09%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,343.28 +127.57 +0.84%

Hang Seng 23,782.11 +394.97 +1.69%

Shanghai Composite 2,075.48 +21.00 +1.02%

FTSE 100 6,795.34 +66.90 +0.99%

CAC 40 4,369.52 +64.78 +1.50%

Xetra DAX 9,734.33 +122.28 +1.27%

S&P 500 1,983.53 +9.90 +0.50%

NASDAQ 4,456.02 +31.31 +0.71%

Dow Jones 17,113.54 +61.81 +0.36%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3465 -0,42%

GBP/USD $1,7063 -0,05%

USD/CHF Chf0,9022 +0,48%

USD/JPY Y101,46 +0,05%

EUR/JPY Y136,63 -0,37%

GBP/JPY Y173,12 0,00%

AUD/USD $0,9392 +0,23%

NZD/USD $0,8667 -0,22%

USD/CAD C$1,0735 -0,02%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.6% +0.5%

01:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II +2.9% +3.1%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals June 41.8 43.4

08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance July 4 18

11:45 United Kingdom BoE Carney speaks

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m May +1.1% +0.6%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m May +0.7% +0.3%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -7.5