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23.06.2011
19:12
Greece has teached a deal with the EU/IMF.
18:40
Dow -147.31 at 11962.36, Nasdaq -5.38 at 2663.81, S&P -13.71 at 1273.43

The Nasdaq recently came in touch with the neutral line, but was unable to extend the move into positive territory. It has since slid back to a modest loss.
Treasuries are facing some upward resistance of their own. Despite the weakness in the broader stock market, the benchmark 10-year Note has been unable to push higher in order to drive down its yield below 2.90%. The Note's yield has not yet been below that line this year.

18:03
American focus:

The dollar rose against most of its 16 major counterparts after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled yesterday that the central bank won’t add to stimulus measures that could erode the value of the currency.
The Fed’s $600 billion program of U.S. debt purchases, its second round of quantitative easing, ends this month.
“We’re seeing dollar strength today because as QE2 ends the Fed has ignored the prospect for QE3, as they said the main reason for doing QE2 was to avoid deflationary pressures, which are no longer an issue,” said Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Gain Capital Group LLC in New York.
The euro fell versus the greenback as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the debt crisis threatens to infect banks. Currencies of oil-exporting countries, such as Canada’s dollar, tumbled after the International Energy Agency said it will release oil from emergency stockpiles.
The Swiss franc rose against all of its major peers, reaching a record against the euro, amid concern the global economy will falter.
A report showed European services and manufacturing growth slowed in June more than economists forecast, adding to signs the economy is losing momentum. A composite index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers fell to 53.6 from 55.8 in May, London-based Markit Economics said.
Applications for jobless benefits in the U.S. rose 9,000 in the week ended June 18 to 429,000, the Labor Department said today. Purchases of new houses fell in May for the first time in three months, dropping 2.1 percent to a 319,000 annual pace, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington.
The euro dropped amid concern Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will face difficulty in getting parliamentary approval for budget cuts and asset sales needed to qualify for more aid.
European leaders meet today in Brussels for a two-day summit on Greece. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters they’ll reaffirm a time-line for assistance to Greece hammered out by euro-area finance ministers. The finance chiefs will decide on July 3 whether Greece has met conditions for its next aid payment.
Antonis Samaras, leader of the opposition in the Greek parliament, said his party will vote against the government’s new austerity measures, contrary to European Union calls for unity, the Financial Times reported, citing an interview.

16:49
Dow -194.16 at 11915.51, Nasdaq -21.95 at 2647.24, S&P -19.69 at 1267.45

Recent efforts to trim losses have run into resistance. Although the stock market is retracing part of the upward move, it is still above its session low.

14:32
EUR/JPY remains under pressure, holding around Y114.14. Key support comes at Y114.00, then - between Y113.45/50 zone with stops below.
14:17
USD/JPY recovers

USD/JPY recovers after printing an hourly lows around Y80.60. Rate earlier declined from session high on Y80.80. Resistance at Y80.90/95 (Y80.94 - 16 June intraday high) with a break above opens Y81.05/10 where large offers placed. Initial bids at Y80.30/25.

14:00
US: May new home sales -2.1% to 319k
13:51
GBP/USD falls

GBP/USD probes a new session lows around $1.5948 with options were earlier mentioned at $1.5950. Stops at $1.5940. A break below opens the way to $1.5920. Next support at $1.5915 and then - barrier at $1.5900. Bids placed between $1.5880/85.

13:41
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD $1,.4200, $1.4300, $1.4315, $1.4330, $1.4375-80, $1.4400, $1.4430
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.50, Y81.65, Y81.80
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6120, $1.6155
EUR/GBP stg0.8865
GBP/CHF Chf1.3690
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0455, $1.0465, $1.0480, $1.0750
AUD/JPY Y85.15, Y82.50

13:28
IEA press release: 28 IEA member countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil in the coming month in response to the ongoing disruption of oil supplies from Libya.
  • supply disruption has taken place for some time and it may continue;
  • seasonal increase in refiner demand expected for this summer;
  • tightness in the oil market threatens to undermine the fragile global economic recovery."
13:17
Before the bell: Pessimism takes place on Wall Street

U.S. stocks were poised to extend declines from the previous session Thursday, as a weak report on unemployment claims and the Federal Reserve's gloomy comments about the economy weighed on investors.


Economy: A report on initial claims showed 429,000 Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week. That marked an increase of 9,000 new claims over the week before, and was far weaker than the 413,000 claims economists had expected.
Further attention is on May new home sales at 14:00 GMT.
Companies: Shares of Red Hat (RHT) added 5% before the market open, after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and hiked its full-year forecast late Wednesday.
Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY, Fortune 500) released positive results. Shares of Pfizer rose 4% in premarket trading, while shares of Bristol Myers Squibb climbed 7%.


12:55
OIL: Wires report that the International Energy Agency will hold an "urgent" press conference in Paris at 1300 GMT. An IEA declines to comment on the reason for the conference.
12:43
Reaction on news:

Looks like market decided to ignore the US Labor Department data on Jobless claims (+429k versus median +415k). Currently EUR/USD weakens, holding around session lows on $1.4164 amid EU summit. GBP/USD also under pressure after weak CBI data, trading around $1.5970.

12:30
US: Initial jobless claims +9k to 429k
12:13
EUR/USD challenges bids on $1.4200. In case of break below there is no major support till Jun 17 lows on $1.4120/30.
12:01
EU session review: Euro falls versus Dollar amid EU ministers meeting on Greece

Data released:
06:58     France     PMI (June) flash    52.5    53.8    54.9
06:58     France     PMI services (June) flash    56.7    60.3    62.5
07:28     Germany     PMI (June) flash    54.9    56.8    57.7
07:28     Germany     PMI services (June) flash    58.3    55.5    56.1
07:58     EU(17)     PMI (June) flash    52.0    53.7    54.6
07:58     EU(17)     PMI services (June) flash    54.2    55.4    56.0
08:00     Italy     Consumer confidence (June)    105.8    105.0    106.5
10:00     UK     CBI retail sales volume balance (June)    -2%    12%    18%

The euro weakened before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s financial problems. The single currency dropped for a second day against the dollar on prospects Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will face difficulty in getting parliamentary approval next week for a package of budget cuts and asset sales, needed to be eligible for a second round of aid.
European finance chiefs will decide on July 3 whether Greece has met conditions for its next aid payment.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the debt crisis threatens to infect banks.
The euro also declined as Athens-based newspaper Kathimerini reported that officials from the European Union and International Monetary Fund assessing Greece’s efforts to cut its budget deficit have expressed doubts about the viability of 3.8 billion euros of measures slated for this year. The measures are part of a total of 6.4 billion euros in deficit-reduction measures this year.

EUR/USD remains under pressure after rate triggered stops between $1.4250/40. Next support placed at $1.4214 (61.8% Fibo of $1.4073/1.4442 move). Bids suggested from this level and extending toward $1.4200. Resistance now seen at $1.4250/60 ahead of $1.4280.

GBP/USD tries to recover after it tasted support at $1.5980. Bids remain around $1.5980/70. A break below to open a deeper move toward $1.5950 ahead of $1.5915/00. Resistance placed at $1.6000/05.

USD/JPY retreated from session highs on Y80.65 and currently holds a bit lower. Support is near Y80.35 (local lows).

US data for today include initial jobless clains at 12:30 GMT and new home sales at 14:00  GMT.

11:36
Market players continue to discuss FOMC results and Bernanke's press conference. Analysts at Goldman note the downgraded forecasts and says Bernanke stayed "within the zone of inaction" in his comments.
11:18
GBP/USD probes support

GBP/USD challenges support around $1.5980, trading a bit higher. Bids remain around $1.5980/70. A break below to open a deeper move toward $1.5950 ahead of $1.5915/00. Resistance placed at $1.6000/05.

11:01
EUR/JPY follows euro

EUR/JPY follows euro decline and refreshed session lows at Y114.55. Cross now holds at Y114.60 with bids between Y114.50/40 try give some support. Break under opens the way to Y114.05/00 with techs support comes at Y113.98 (200 day MA). Resistance at Y115.30/40, further offers waiting at Y115.75/80.

10:44
EUR/USD under pressure

EUR/USD still weakening, holding currently around $1.4222 after rate triggered stops between $1.4250/40. Next support placed at $1.4214 (61.8% Fibo of $1.4073/1.4442 move). Bids suggested from this level and extending toward $1.4200. Resistance now seen at $1.4250/60 ahead of $1.4280.

10:30
FTSE 5,724 -0.84%, CAC 3,827 -1.15%, DAX 7,203 -1.03%
10:25
European focus: The euro weakened before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels

The euro weakened against most of its major counterparts before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s financing needs as the nation struggles to stave off default.

The single currency dropped for a second day against the dollar on prospects Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will face difficulty in getting parliamentary approval next week for a package of budget cuts and asset sales, needed to be eligible for a second round of aid. 
The dollar climbed after the Federal Reserve damped speculation of additional stimulus at a policy meeting yesterday. The Australian dollar declined as stocks fell.
“The underlying debt issue in peripheral countries in Europe will continue to justify a risk premium on the euro,” said Geoff Kendrick, head of European currency strategy at Nomura International Plc in London. “Our view is that from a systemic perspective, losses from any debt restructuring look manageable. In the near-term, however, there are headline risks for the euro coming from the meeting.”
The dollar advanced for a second day against the yen after the Fed refrained from debasing the currency further. Policy makers decided to keep the Fed’s balance sheet at a record to spur the economy after completing $600 billion of bond purchases this month in a second round of quantitative easing, or so- called QE2. They cut growth forecasts for this year and next and raised estimates for the unemployment rate.

10:00
UK CBI: Jun Reported Sales Balance -2%
09:48
EUR/USD drops

The pair drops back to retest earlier lows at $1.4250 as market reacts to the wire headline that the Greek FinMin is discussing with EU/IMF ways to fill a E3.8bln gap in mid-term plan. Stops begin from below $1.4250, larger ones said to have been building between $1.4245/40, with traders also suggesting that model accounts would look to sell entry points between $1.4250/40.

09:27
FTSE 5,732 -0.70%, CAC 3,840 -0.81%, DAX 7,216 -0.85%
09:11
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1,.4200, $1.4300, $1.4315, $1.4330, $1.4375-80, $1.4400, $1.4430
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.50, Y81.65, Y81.80
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6120, $1.6155
EUR/GBP stg0.8865
GBP/CHF Chf1.3690
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0455, $1.0465, $1.0480, $1.0750
AUD/JPY Y85.15, Y82.50

08:20
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei  9,597  -0.34%
Hang Seng 21,759  -0.46%
S&P/ASX  4,501  -0.71% 
Shanghai Composite 2,688  +1.47%

08:12
Asian session: The euro weakened

Data:
00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index (Apr) 0.1%
02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Preliminar 50.1

The euro weakened against most of its major counterparts before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s financing needs as the nation struggles to stave off default.
The single currency dropped for a second day against the dollar on prospects Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will face difficulty in getting parliamentary approval next week for a package of budget cuts and asset sales, needed to be eligible for a second round of aid.
The dollar climbed  after the Federal Reserve damped speculation of additional stimulus at a policy meeting yesterday. 
The Australian dollar declined as stocks fell.
The dollar advanced for a second day against the yen after the Fed refrained from debasing the currency further. Policy makers decided to keep the Fed’s balance sheet at a record to spur the economy after completing $600 billion of bond purchases this month in a second round of quantitative easing, or so- called QE2. They cut growth forecasts for this year and next and raised estimates for the unemployment rate.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in $1.4300  area
GBP/USD: the pair  shown low on $1.6015 then become stronger.
USD/JPY: the pair holds on Y80.30-Y80.60.

08:08
Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar was little changed against the euro after the Federal Reserve said it will maintain monetary stimulus after completing a Treasury-purchase program because economic growth remains sluggish.
The greenback was little changed versus the yen as the Fed maintained its vow to keep interest rates low for an “extended period” after a second round of Treasury purchases failed to improve the economy. 
The euro fell earlier versus most major currencies on speculation Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will struggle to pass austerity measures, even after winning a confidence vote yesterday. 
Papandreou will seek approval next week for a 78 billion-euro ($112 billion) package of budget cuts and asset sales to help ensure more financial aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund and stave off the threat of default.
The pound fell for the first time in four days against the greenback as minutes of the latest Bank of England meeting showed some policy makers saw a risk that more bond purchases may be required.
Bernanke says that recovery is slowed dowd somewhat and the phrase on "extended pperiodd" doesn't know the timing, at least two or three FOMC's meetings till ending extended period.
EUR/USD: the pair shown high in $1.4440 area. The rate fallen in $1.4340  area later.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in $1.6060  area.
USD/JPY: the pair holds on  Y80.00-Y80.40.

US data starts at 1230GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to rise 1,000 to 415,000 in the June 18 employment survey week. Claims stood at a 414,000 level in the May 14 employment survey week. At 1400GMT new home sales are expected to fall to a 305,000 annual rate, still very low but above the 281,000 rate in May 2010.

07:59
EUROZONE: Jun flash mfg PMI 52.0; Jun flash svcs PMI 54.2
07:47
GERMANY: Jun flash mfg PMI 54.9; Jun flash svcs PMI 58.3
07:45
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Japanese stocks rose the most in three weeks after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a parliamentary confidence vote that moved the country one step further from default.
Sony Corp. (6758), which gets more than 20 percent of its sales in Europe, climbed 3.7 percent.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) gained 1.1 percent after Deutsche Bank AG. raised its profit estimate for the world’s biggest carmaker.
Jtekt Corp. (6473), a supplier of parts to Toyota, advanced 3.2 percent to 1,189 yen. The company, which had delayed earnings forecasts because of damage from March’s earthquake, said net income will rise 20 percent to 24 billion yen in the year ending in March 2012.
Oji Paper Co. jumped 3.5 percent after Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. raised its rating on Japan’s largest papermaker to “outperform,” citing improving profits at the company’s cardboard business.

European stocks closed lower on Wednesday after Dutch electronics manufacturer Philips issued a profit warning.
Philips lost 8.8 per cent to €16.41 after it warned of a “low single-digit” sales decline in the second quarter at its consumer lifestyle division. The company said it would announce cost cuts in the coming weeks.
Swedish rival Electrolux fell 3.4 per cent to SKr147.80 in response. This came in spite of news that the finance chief of its Egyptian takeover target Olympic expected the deal to be completed within a month.
On the upside, Renault, the French carmaker, gained 2.9 per cent to €39.17 after chief executive Carlos Ghosn said the company’s Japanese partner Nissan would forecast “significantly higher” sales for 2011. He said production had been restored more quickly than expected after the March earthquake.
Tele2, the Nordic telecoms operator, which has operations in Russia and other emerging markets, rose 1.5 per cent to SKr120.90 after its rating at broker SEB was raised to “buy” from “hold”.
Finnish paper manufacturer UPM-Kymmene rose 2.8 per cent to €12.57 after Credit Suisse raised its rating to “outperform” from “neutral”.

U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after the Federal Reserve issued a dour assessment of the economy but gave no indication that additional stimulus measures are in the works.
Shares of Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) fell 2.5%, making it the worst performer on the Dow. But the selling was broad based, with only three stocks in the blue-chip index ending in the black.
In a widely expected move, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate near zero percent, saying the economic recovery has been weaker than expected.
The central bank also repeated that its $600 billion stimulus program will end next week, as scheduled. It will continue to use interest earned on its $2.6 trillion portfolio of securities to buy long-term Treasuries.
Companies: FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) reported earnings and sales that topped forecasts, and hiked its outlook. That sent shares of the shipping company up 3%. Shares of rival UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) edged up nearly 1%.
Shares of Adobe Systems (ADBE) slumped more than 6%. The software maker posted a 54% jump in second-quarter profit after the market close Tuesday, but issued a revenue outlook that fell short of expectations.
Carmax (KMX, Fortune 500) reported first-quarter earnings that widely beat expectations, sending shares of the company 7.5% higher.

06:40
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (high of June) 

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (Jun 3, 15 and 16 high) 
Resistance 1: Y80.70 (area of session high and Jun 17 high) 
Current price: Y80.41
Support 1:Y80.00 (Jun 17-20 and 22 low)  
Support 2:Y79.70 (Jun 8 low)  
Support 3:Y79.55 (low of May)  

Comments: the pair holds on Y80.40 area. The immediate resistance - Y80.70. Above growth is possible to Y81.00. The immediate support - Y80.00. Below losses are possible to Y79.70.

06:33
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8520 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8460 (resistance line from Jun 16)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8440 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8418
Support 1: Chf0.8390 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8330 (Jun 7 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair grown. The immediate resistance Chf0.8440. Above islocated Chf0.8460. The immediate support - Chf0,8390. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8330.  

06:29
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6255/60 (area of Jun 21-22 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6170 (61.8 % FIBO $1.6260-$ 1.6015, Jun 21 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6090 (Jun 17 low, low of european session on Jun 22)
Current price: $1.6044
Support 1 : $1.6015 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5935 (low of March)
Support 3 : $1.5890 (61.8 % FIBO $1.5340-$ 1.6750)

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1.6015. Below  decrease is  possible to $1.5935. The immediate resistance - $1.6090. Above growth is possible to $1.6170.  

06:25
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4500 (area of Jun 14 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4440 (Jun 22 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4340 (session high)
Current price: $1.4309
Support 1 : $1.4280 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4190 (Jun 20 low)
Support 3 : $1.4125 (Jun 17 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1,4280. Below losses are possible to $1.4190. The immediate resistance $1.4340. Above growth is possible to $1,4440. 

05:45
Schedule for today, Thursday, Jun 23'2011:

07:28 Germany  PMI (June) flash 56.8 57.7

07:28 Germany PMI services (June) flash 55.5 56.1
07:58 EU(17) PMI (June) flash 53.7 54.6
07:58 EU(17) PMI services (June) flash 55.4 56.0
08:00 Italy Consumer confidence (June) 105.0 106.5
11:30 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (June) 12% 18%
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 18.06) 420K 414K
14:00 USA New home sales (May) 300K 323K

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