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23.02.2011
20:16
EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD holds tight amid light flows, trading within the $1.3730/55 range, currently around $1.3743 area. Offers remain intact at $1.3800 bids back at $1.3700.

19:49
USD/JPY retreats again

USD/JPY recovered to Y82.67 but failed to hold higher and retreats again. rate currently holds around Y82.47, above earlier lows around Y82.30. Bids still at Y82.20 and lower with offers in place at Y82.90 and above.

19:32
Dow -110.72 at 12102.07, Nasdaq -36.21 at 2720.21, S&P -9.52 at 1305.92

Stocks are trying to extend a recent push up from the 1300 line. In turn, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are at their best levels in over an hour.
Oil prices have pulled back in recent trade. The energy component set a new 2-year high of $100 per barrel earlier, but it is now at $98.90 per barrel with a 3.7% gain.

19:19
Miles: BOE Forecasts Back Very Gradual Stimulus Removal
  • against a sharp tightening in monetary policy
  • inflation set to fall back rapidly to its 2.0% target during 2012
19:14
TRICHET: Citizens can be sure ECB will be faithful to mandate
  •  Price stability deeply entrenched in medium- to long-term expectations
  • Big, lasting inflation differentials can be cause of concern
19:12
TRICHET: Citizens can be sure ECB will be faithful to mandate
  • Price stability deeply entrenched in medium- to long-term expectations
  • Big, lasting inflation differentials can be cause of concern
18:36
US focus: Dollar falls on Bets ECB, BOE to Boost Rates Before Fed

The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts on speculation central banks in Europe and the U.K. will seek to combat inflation from rising fuel costs by increasing interest rates before the Federal Reserve.
The euro climbed to an almost three-week high versus the greenback.

The pound gained versus the dollar as minutes of the Bank of England’s Feb. 10 meeting showed an additional policy maker backed an increase in rates.
“You’re still seeing euro and sterling who have more people on their central banks talking hawkish; it’s beneficial for their currencies against the dollar at this stage,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist at UBS AG. Libyan and Mideast turmoil “pushes oil higher, and that feeds into commodity prices pushing short-term inflation, reinforcing perceptions those central banks may do something.”
European Central Bank policy makers will make the decisions necessary to maintain price stability, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters today. The ECB will “inevitably” have to “rebalance our monetary policy stance,” with the 17-nation euro-area economy strengthening and inflation in breach of the central bank’s 2% limit, council member Yves Mersch said yesterday, without giving a time frame.
Governments rushed to evacuate thousands of expatriates from Libya as army units defected and a former aide to the leader Muammar Qaddafi warned that the spreading revolt may topple the regime within days. The nation holds Africa’s largest crude reserves.
Crude for April delivery rose as much as 6.8% to $99.94 a barrel in New York, the highest level since October 2008. In London, it gained as much as 5.7% to $111.85, the highest since September 2008.
Sterling gained after minutes of the Bank of England’s Feb. 10 rate decision showed Spencer Dale joined Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale in voting for higher rates as an increasing number of officials said the case for tightening policy had “grown in strength.” The central bank has held the rate at 0.5% since March 2009.

18:17
Dow -105.20 at 12107.78, Nasdaq -41.05 at 2715.37, S&P -10.91 at 1304.53

The S&P 500 has dropped to a 1% loss, which comes on top of its 2% loss during the prior session. However, the benchmark Index has been able to steady itself after securing support in the 1302 zone.
Corporate news offered little support to stocks. The latest round of earnings was headlined by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 43.10, -5.13), which reported an upside earnings surprise, but that was tainted by a light revenue figure and a disappointing forecast. TJX Co (TJX 48.18, -1.54) had an upside surprise of its own, but also issued a disappointing outlook. Lowe's (LOW 25.33, -0.66) and Toll Brothers (TOL 20.45, -0.31) both had better-than-expected earnings.

18:08
OIL: April WTI saw high prints at $99.94 as it flirts with the $100 mark not seen since October 2008. Trades currently at $99.60.
17:37
OIL:

April contract is now the front WTI contract and worries over the middle east continue to keep upside pressure on oil. April WTI is up a very solid $4 on the day, trades at $99.45 currently but saw prints atop $99.60 just a few moments ago.

15:34
EUR/GBP heads for stg0.8500

EUR/GBP triggered offers between stg0.8470/80 and currently holds around stg0.8485. Cross rises after euro. Further offers stg0.8500, stronger at stg0.8525/30.

15:25
GBP/USD rises

GBP/USD rises following by euro-dollar, but rate still seen holding off earlier highs at $1.6275, seen after the release of hawkish BOE Minutes. Pound may $1.6280/00 to continue rising. Options at $1.6300.

15:01
US: Jan Existing Home Sales +2.7% to 5.36M
14:48
FX: Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD  $1.3610, $1.3640, $1.3650, $1.3700
USD/JPY Y81.25, Y81.40, Y81.45, Y81.50, Y82.50, Y83.45, Y83.50
GBP/USD $1.6100
AUD/USD $0.9950, $0.9880, $0.9845
USD/NZD $0.7500, $0.7490

14:29
April Brent crude oil earlier hit 2 1/2 year high at $109.47, and now trades at $108.90, +$3.12 on the day.
14:18
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to open higher Wednesday, following a sharp sell-off in the previous session and ahead of a key report on existing home sales.


Libya's escalating political crisis sparked a sharp sell-off in U.S. stocks Tuesday, with the three major indexes posting their biggest one-day drops of the year and as oil prices continued to skyrocket.


Economy: The spotlight returns to real estate Wednesday morning, as the National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales numbers for January at 15:00 GMT.
Existing home sales are expected to slip slightly, to 5.23 million units on an annualized basis.
On Tuesday, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index report indicated that national home prices fell 4.1% during the last three months of 2010, compared with 12 months earlier.
Companies: Before the opening bell, Home Depot (HD) rival Lowe's (LOW) reported quarterly earnings that beat analysts' expectations. Shares were up 3% in premarket trading.
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) also surprised investors, reporting quarterly earnings of 2 cents per share. Analysts had forecasted a loss of 7 cents per share. Shares were up 3% in premarket trading.
Still to come, retail department store Saks (SKS) is scheduled to report quarterly results later in the morning.
Shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) were down 10% in premarket trading, after the computer company issued an outlook and quarterly sales figures that disappointed investors.
World markets:

Oil for April delivery gained 55 cents to $95.97 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery rose $3.40 to $1,404.50 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dipped slightly, with the yield pushing up to 3.48% from Tuesday yield of 3.46%.

13:40
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3745/50, $1.3765/70, $1.3800, $1.3825/30, $1.3860/65
Bids:$1.3725, $1.3700, $1.3680, $1.3650, $1.3620

13:26
European session:

The euro gained for the first time in three days versus the dollar on speculation rising fuel costs will put further pressure on European Central Bank policy makers to combat inflation with higher interest rates.
Oil prices surged to a two-year high amid intensifying violence in Libya.
“The market is focusing more on prospects for higher interest rates and this speculation should offer further relief for the European unit,” said Roberto Mialich, a senior currency strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “The Federal Reserve’s position is very clear; the U.S. outlook is still uncertain and they don’t want to raise rates too soon.”
ECB officials will “inevitably” have to “rebalance our monetary policy stance,” with the 17-nation euro-area economy strengthening and inflation in breach of the central bank’s 2 percent limit, council member Yves Mersch said yesterday, without giving a time frame. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and council member Guy Quaden will speak in Liege, Belgium, later today.
The pound gained versus the dollar and euro as minutes of the Bank of England’s Feb. 10 interest-rate meeting showed three members of the policy-setting committee voted for an increase.
Spencer Dale joined Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale in voting for an interest-rate increase by the Bank of England this month as a growing number of officials said the case for tightening policy had “grown in strength,” minutes released in London today showed.
The New Zealand dollar, known as the kiwi, strengthened earlier after Moody’s Investors Service said it sees no immediate impact from the Christchurch earthquake on the nation’s Aaa credit rating.

EUR/USD: reached  $1.3740 mark.

GBP/USD: posted session high at $1.6273, before stabelized within $1.6205/60.

USD/JPY: reached the upper bound of the day's range Y82.55-Y82.90.


US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is forecast to slow to 5.25 million in January following the 12.3% surge in December.

13:05
Orders desk:

USD/JPY
Offers: Y82.90, Y83.25, Y83.55/60
Bids: Y82.45/50, Y82.20, Y81.75/80

12:39
UK CAMERON: Well on way to sorting out public finances
  • Well on way to getting economy growing again
11:48
EUR/JPY posts new high on the day

Posts a fresh high on the day of Y113.77 as euro-dollar rechallenges the earlier highs, and dollar-yen chews through exporter offers ahead of Y83.00. Some resistance seen ahead of yesterday's high of Y113.92 and Monday's high of Y114.24.

11:23
EUR/AUD keeps positive mood

Traders reporting some good demand for euro-aussie, but the cross remains contained to a tight A$1.3650/85 range in europe this morning. Talk of stops now positioned for a break of $1.3700 layered up to $1.3730. Cross trades A$1.3665/68. Resistance comes around A$1.3694. Support remains on approach to A$1.3650/45.

10:26
FTSE -39.06 -0.65% 5,957.70, CAC -4.57 -0.11% 4,045.70, Dax -22.02 -0.30% 7,296.33
10:02
EMU Data: Dec sa Industry New Orders +2.1% M/M, +18.5% Y/Y
09:46
Option expiries for today's 15:00 GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.3610, $1.3640, $1.3650, $1.3700
USD/JPY Y81.25, Y81.40, Y81.45, Y81.50, Y82.50, Y83.45, Y83.50
GBP/USD $1.6100
AUD/USD $0.9950, $0.9880, $0.9845
USD/NZD $0.7500, $0.7490

09:40
BOE MINUTES: MPC Voted 6-3 In Favour Of Holding Rates At 0.5%
  • Spencer Dale Joins Weale In Voting For 25bps Hike
  • Sentance Ups Rate Hike Call To 50bps From 25bps Prior
  • Posen Votes For stg50bln QE Expansion; Rest Vote No QE Change 
  • Most Members Agree Case For Tightening Has Strengthened 
09:21
Asian session: The euro gained

 

The euro gained for the first time in three days versus the dollar on speculation rising fuel costs will put further pressure on European Central Bank policy makers to combat inflation with higher interest rates.
The euro advanced as intensifying violence in Libya caused oil prices to surge to a two-year high yesterday. 
The New Zealand dollar rose from a two-month low on prospects the 6.3 magnitude earthquake caused markets to overprice the probability of an interest-rate cut by the nation’s central bank.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened earlier after Moody’s Investors Service said it sees no immediate impact from the Christchurch earthquake on the nation’s Aaa credit rating.
The yen trimmed losses versus most major peers on speculation Japanese exporters took advantage of the currency’s recent weakness to buy.

 

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger above a mark $1.3700.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1.6230.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82.55-Y82.90.

 

The main focus for the morning will be on the minutes of the latest Bank of England meeting, which are released at 0930GMT and many expect will show increasing support for a rate hike. There has been no shortage of evidence that the MPC is deeply divided and the debate at the February meeting was likely vociferous. The vote will reveal if there were any further recruits to January's two person rate hike camp. 
EMU industrial orders data follows, at 1000GMT. 
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, which is followed at 1245GMT by the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data and at 1355GMT by the weekly Redbook Average. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is forecast to slow to 5.25 million in January following the 12.3% surge in December. 

 

 

08:54
COMPANY NEWS:

Commerzbank has reported Q4 net income of E257 mln versus analysts estimates of E169 mln. FY net income was E1.4 bln versus analysts estimates of E1.22 bln.

08:06
Forex: Tuesday's review

 

The Swiss franc rose against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts as violence in Libya boosted demand for the currency as a refuge.
The euro pared its drop versus the dollar after Yves Mersch, a European Central Bank council member, said the ECB may toughen its stance on inflation as soon as next week. 
The Frankfurt-based ECB is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on March 3.
Oil climbed on concern turmoil in North Africa and the Mideast will disrupt supplies. Crude oil for April delivery gained as much as 2.7% to $108.57 a barrel in London, the highest since September 2008.
Stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 1.5% and the MSCI World Index losing 1.1%. 
The dollar briefly gained versus the euro after the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 U.S. cities fell 2.4% in December, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, according to figures from the group. The median forecast of economists was for a 2.3% drop.
The Conference Board’s index of sentiment increased to 70.4, the highest since February 2008, from 64.8 the prior month, figures from the private research group showed today. 
New Zealand’s dollar slumped after an earthquake struck the nation’s second-largest city, killing at least 65, while the yen gained versus the greenback as U.S. Treasury yields fell to almost three-week lows.

EUR/USD: the range of the yesterday's session exceeded 170 points. 
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1.6130.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in around Y82.80.
The main focus for the morning will be on the minutes of the latest Bank of England meeting, which are released at 0930GMT and many expect will show increasing support for a rate hike. There has been no shortage of evidence that the MPC is deeply divided and the debate at the February meeting was likely vociferous. The vote will reveal if there were any further recruits to January's two person rate hike camp. 
EMU industrial orders data follows, at 1000GMT. 
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, which is followed at 1245GMT by the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data and at 1355GMT by the weekly Redbook Average. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is forecast to slow to 5.25 million in January following the 12.3% surge in December. 

 

07:00
Stocks: Tuesday review

 

Japanese stocks fell, leading the Topix index to its biggest drop since September, as tension escalated in the Middle East and Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the country’s debt outlook.
Chiyoda Corp., an engineering company that gets almost half of its sales in the Middle East, sank 4.3 percent. Banks contributed the most to the Topix’s decline. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 3.6 percent to 453 yen, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., the country’s second-largest publicly traded bank, slumped 4.5 percent to 3,050 yen.
Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan’s largest shipping line by sales, lost 2.8 percent. The price of crude oil surged to a two-year high, increasing energy costs for companies.
European stocks retreated for a third day as Libya cracked down on anti-government protests amid continuing political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, overshadowing a jump in U.S. consumer confidence.
Air France-KLM Group fell 3 percent as oil climbed to the highest price in more than two years. Informa Plc, the U.K. publisher of Lloyd’s List, lost 2.9 percent after earnings declined. Jyske Bank A/S advanced 7.5 percent after reporting profit that beat analysts’ estimates. Technical problems forced a 6 1/2-hour delay to the start of trading in Italy today.
U.S. stocks tumbled, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from its highest level since June 2008, as violence escalated in Libya and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported sales that trailed its own forecasts.
Wal-Mart sank 3.4 percent. Bank of America Corp. slid 3.7 percent after almost doubling a writedown for its credit-card unit to $20.3 billion. United Continental Holdings Inc. and AMR Corp. retreated more than 6.5 percent amid investor concern that rising crude prices may hurt airline earnings. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. rallied at least 1.3 percent as oil touched the highest price in more than two years.

 

06:37
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3:Y84.00 (Feb 16 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.50 (Feb 18 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.90 (session high)    
Current price: Y82.63
Support 1:Y82.50 (session low, 50.0 % FIBO Y81.1-Y83.90)
Support 2:Y82.20 (61.8 % FIBO Y81.1-Y83.90, Feb 9 low)
Support 3:Y81.80 (Feb 8 low)    
Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - Y82,50. Below losses  are possible to Y82.20. The nearest resistance - Y82.90. Above growth is possible to Y83.50. 

 

06:33
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9540 (Feb 18 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9510 (Feb 22 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9410 (resistance line from Feb 16)
Current price: Chf0.9372
Support 1: Chf0.9360 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9330 (Feb 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9300 (Dec 31 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached low. The nearest support - Chf0.9360. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9330. The nearest resistance-Chf0.9410. Above is located Chf0.9510. 

 

06:30
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.6280/00 (Jan  4-5 and Feb 3  high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6260 (Feb 18-21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6190 (resistance line from Feb 18)
Current price: $1.6170
Support 1 : $1.6100 (Feb 22 low)
Support 2 : $1.6070 (Feb 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.6020 (support line from Feb 11)
 
Comments: the pair bargains below a mark $1.6200. The nearest resistance $1.6190. Above growth is possible  to $1.6260. The nearest support $1.6100. Below is possible testings of around $1.6070. 

 

06:27
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.3860 (Feb 2 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3745 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3715 (session high, Feb 18-21 high)
Current price: $1.3696
Support 1 : $1.3650 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3550 (support line from Feb 14 low)
Support 3 : $1.3430 (Feb 14 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of a session high. The nearest resistance $1.3715. Above growth is possible to $1,3745. The nearest support $1.3650. Below decrease is possible  to $1.3550. 

 

05:45
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Feb 23 2011:

09:30 UK BoE meeting minutes (10.02)  
10:00 EU(17) Industrial orders (January) -1.0% 2.1%
10:00 EU(17) Industrial orders (January) Y/Y 16.2% 19.9%
15:00 USA Existing home sales (January), mln 5.27 5.28

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