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22.12.2010
19:54
USD/JPY tries to rebound

Negligible flows, holds Y83.65 area now  after finding a base earlier just ahead of Y83.40 where bids were mentioned earlier. Talk now suggesting a few stops may be positioned below that level also.

19:29
Dow +24.25 at 11557.11, Nasdaq +3.57 at 2670.99, S&P +3.58 at 1258.18

Stocks have spent the past hour drifting slowly off of session highs. The S&P 500 is still above the best levels of the prior session, however.
Financials, which have been a boon to the broader market for the past couple of days, now trade with a 1.0% gain. The sector had been up as much as 1.4% earlier.
Banks have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of buying in the financial sector. Diversified banks are up 1.8%, but more impressive is the 2.3% gain sported by regional lenders.

19:09
American focus:

The dollar declined to a one-week low against the yen after reports showed U.S. economic growth and existing homes sales increased less than forecast, damping demand for U.S. denominated assets. “Yields are a little bit lower and that is weighing on the dollar-yen,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., a currency brokerage. “We can tie that back to the slightly disappointing GDP.”

The greenback fluctuated versus its major counterparts after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter, compared with the 2.8% pace forecast. The euro gained earlier as German import prices in November climbed the most in a decade.

The Swiss franc strengthened to a record against the common currency for a sixth day on refuge demand linked to the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis. “The Swiss franc continues to perform extremely well,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research with online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “When we move to a stronger growth scenario, countries such as Switzerland that have healthier balances will really outperform.” Portugal’s bond rating may be downgraded one or two levels by Moody’s Investors Service after the company warned yesterday of concern that budget cuts will worsen the country’s “sluggish” growth. Greece may have its credit rating cut to non-investment grade by Fitch Ratings within six weeks. The euro has dropped 10.5% so far this year, the biggest loss among the 10 developed nations. The dollar has lost 1.1% and the yen has added 11.5%.

The pound fell versus the euro after a report showed the U.K. economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated in the third quarter. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the third quarter. That compares with an initial estimate of 0.8%. Second-quarter growth was revised to 1.1% from 1.2%. Minutes of the Bank of England’s December meeting showed policy makers remained split in their decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.5 percent and the asset-purchase program unchanged at 200 billion pounds.

18:21
Dow +27.47 at 11560.63, Nasdaq +3.97 at 2671.58, S&P +3.93 at 1258.53

Dow +27.47 at 11560.63, Nasdaq +3.97 at 2671.58, S&P +3.93 at 1258.53

18:08
EUR/CHF remains under pressure

Saw low prints at Chf1.2448 after another shove lower around the London fixing event as a barrier strike at Chf1.2450 was targeted and flush after a brief defense. Area of Chf1.2400 said to hold further option-related interest but traders say bids in this pair and dollar-Swiss are light, exacerbating impact of recent flows which may reflect book-balancing needs.

17:40
Dow +30.23 at 11565.21, Nasdaq +6.87 at 2674.92, S&P +4.52 at 1259.24

Stocks have stretched their gains so that the three major indices are now at their best levels of the day, despite the lack of any clear catalyst or headline. More impressive is that the stock market's recent string of gains puts it at its best level since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

15:12
US DATA: Nov exist home sales +5.6% to 4.68 mln (4.75m expected) with Oct's 4.43 unrevised.
14:25
U.S. stocks were poised for a muted open Wednesday morning ahead of several economic reports, as investors pack up for the holidays and prepare for 2011.

 

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were nearly unchanged ahead of the opening bell. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks rose modestly but managed to close at their highest levels in more than two years, as investors set their sights on 2011. Stocks are up about 5% this month, and all three major indexes are positioned for double-digit gains for the year.

"Volumes are going to be lighter than usual, which is typical for this time of year," said Erick Maronak, senior portfolio manager for Victory Capital Management.

Despite light trading -- investor sentiment is positive for the upcoming year, and both companies and investors have piles of cash on the sidelines. "I think as investors connect the dots, they might start to feel that next year might be a pretty descent year," he said.

Corporate earnings have been "pretty solid" for the third quarter, Maronak noted, which has given investors increased confidence. However, until the lines of unemployed start finding work -- it's going to be a slow recovery. "That is ultimately what will reverse sentiment, or at least get it moving in the right direction in a faster speed -- unemployment," he said.

Meanwhile, Congress yet again ran up against the deadline to approve a spending bill to keep the lights on in DC. With a government shutdown looming, Congress approved a temporary spending bill late Tuesday that will fund the government for another 10 weeks.

Economy: Before the bell, the Commerce Department will release its third and final take on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth. GDP is forecast to have grown at a 2.7% annualized rate, up from the previously reported 2.5%.

The existing home sales index from the National Association of Realtors is also due Wednesday morning. The index is expected to have risen to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.65 million units in November -- up from 4.43 million in October, according to a consensus of economists.

U.S. government's weekly crude oil inventories report and a reading on mortgage applications also are on tap for Wednesday.

The FHFA Housing price index for October is also due in the morning, but is not typically a market mover.

Companies: Before the opening bell, Walgreens (WAG, Fortune 500) reported record quarterly earnings and sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. Earnings per share rose 62 cents for the quarter ended Nov. 30 -- blowing past analyst expectations of 54 cents. The pharmacy's profits jumped 18.8% to $580 million, up from $489 million in the same quarter a year ago. Shares of Walgreens rose almost 4% in premarket trade.

American Airlines severed its relationship with online travel site Orbitz.com, after an Illinois court said the airline could cancel its contracts with the travel site, according to the Chicago Tribune. Shares of its holding company, AMR Corp. (AMR, Fortune 500), were little changed in premarket trade.

World markets: European stocks were little changed in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 edged up 0.4%, the DAX in Germany was basically flat, and France's CAC 40 edged down 0.1%.

The U.K.'s GDP growth was revised down to 0.7% in the third quarter -- down from 0.8% previously published, according to the Office for National Statistics in the United Kingdom. Even though the country's economic output was revised slightly lower, it remained 2.7% higher than the same quarter last year.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.9% and Japan's Nikkei shaved 0.2%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.2%.

 

13:35
US DATA: Q3 GDP final rev +0.1 pt to +2.6%, far less of a gain than expected, and inventories were revised up and consumption down (in healthcare and fin'l services).
12:46
USD/JPY holds tight

Shallow bounce of USD/JPY from earlier low of Y83.42 stalled at Y83.60 as dollar continues to remain under pressure as Y110.00 euro-yen remains protected. Rate has slipped back to Y83.52/54.

12:22
EU session review: Yen declines versus Euro, snaps 5-day gain

Data released
09:30     UK     BoE meeting minutes (08-09.12)              
09:30     UK     GDP (Q3) final Y/Y    0.7%    0.8%    0.8%
09:30     UK     GDP (Q3) final Y/Y     2.7%    2.8%    2.8%
09:30     UK     Current account (Q3), bln     -9.6    -8.4    -7.4

The dollar weakened before data forecast to show the U.S. economy is gaining strength, stoking investor demand for higher-yielding assets.
The U.S. currency fell before reports that are expected to show U.S. GDP grew more than previously calculated and existing home sales increased.
“Home sales are the weakest element of the whole U.S. story so we are looking for a bounce back there in existing home sales,” said Jeremy Stretch at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “If we get a positive number or something in line with expectations, then that would be helpful for risk appetite and would probably be supportive for euro-dollar and for the other riskier crosses.”
The euro gained as German import prices in November climbed the most in a decade.
The euro gained after import prices in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, climbed 10% in November from a year earlier, the most in 10 years, after a 9.2% increase in October, the Federal Statistics Office said today. Italy’s retail sales rose 0.3% in October from a month earlier.
The pound slipped after the U.K. economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated, while the Swiss franc strengthened to a record against the common currency for a sixth day.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the third quarter. That compares with an initial estimate of 0.8%. Second-quarter growth was revised to 1.1% from 1.2%.
Minutes of the Bank of England’s December meeting showed policy makers remained split in their decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.5% and the asset-purchase program unchanged at 200 billion pounds.

EUR/USD printed session highs on $1.3180 before settled back to $1.3130. Later rate recovered to $1.3150.

GBP/USD fell from $1.5490 to $1.5424 after weak UK data. then rate managed to rebound to $1.5462.

USD/JPY weakened to Y83.40 before recovered to Y83.60.

Focus later today will be on the US Q3 GDP (1330GMT) and November Existing home sales data at 1500GMT.
The world’s largest economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of economists .
U.S. existing-home sales increased to a 4.75 million annual rate in November, up 7.1% from October, according to the median estimate of economists.

12:11
Crosses hold in a range

EUR/JPY was a bit livelier with an early rally to Y110.07 before drifting lower to Y109.73 and as euro strength was negated by the falling dollar-yen. GBP/JPY slipped briefly below Y129 to Y128.92 following UK data and BOE minutes, before recovering to Y129.10. AUD/JPY remained rangebound Y83.30/50 despite a visit to parity from the AUD/USD.

11:19
GBP/USD recovers

GBP/USD lifts up to $1.5475/80, as the euro pares back gains, allowing euro-sterling to ease back below stg0.8500. Cable offers seen at $1.5480, a break to open a move toward $1.5490/00, with stops noted above. Rate currently holds around $1.5460.

10:52
EU focus: Euro pauses after lows vs Swiss franc, Aussie

The euro won a reprieve after plumbing new lows on the Swiss franc and Australian dollar on Wednesday but the single currency is seen stuck in a slow descent as a steady drip of grim ratings news erodes confidence in it.

The latest blows came from Moody's, which warned it might cut Portugal's rating, and Fitch, which said the same about Greece.
"Though one might suppose the market had become somewhat desensitized to such news, evidence suggests otherwise as periphery-bund spreads widen again and EUR remains under pressure," David Watt, a senior currency strategist at RBC Dominion, said.
A dearth of liquidity and talk of bids by Asian central banks helped limit the euro's fall against the dollar for now.
But it fared less well against the safe-haven Swiss franc and high-yielding Australian dollar.
"EUR/CHF is going deeper into uncharted territory having broken 1.26, and continuing to dig deeper," said Watt.
The Australian currency was underpinned by further gains in equities and commodities, suggesting improving risk appetite as analysts revise up forecasts for global growth in 2011.
The United States is due to release their latest estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter. U.S. growth is seen likely to be revised up to an annualised 2.8%, from 2.5% previously.
More importantly, recent upbeat data on consumer spending has led analysts to sharply lift their forecasts for growth this quarter, while the surprisingly aggressive package of tax cuts agreed this month has boosted estimates for all of 2011.

10:41
AUD/USD holds near parity

AUD/USD flirts with parity again as euro-dollar surges on suggestion from unknown sources that China is ready to buy Portuguese bonds, atlhough this yet to be confirmed. Aussie trades to $0.9996/98 after briefly trading at parity.

10:26
EUR/GBP retreats

EUR/GBP moves above Tuesday's high at stg0.8519, as cable struggles to keep in step with euro-dollar's rally (reacting to a press report suggesting China ready to buy between E4-5bln Portuguese debt). The cross moves up to stg0.8523. Stronger resistance noted at stg0.8530. Cross currently holds at stg0.8505.

10:13
EUR/USD rises after media report

EUR/USD jumps from around $1.3140 to $1.3180, as traders react to an unnamed source in the Portuguese press suggesting China ready to buy between E4-5bln of Portuguese debt. Rate currently holds around $1.3165. Offers earlier reported between $1.3170/75, a break to allow for a move on toward $1.3192/1.3202 (NY/Europe highs Tuesday).

09:56
GBP/USD weakens

GBP/USD dropped to a fresh low of $1.5426 as market reacted to the release of disappointing UK current account data, but rate bounced back to $1.5450 on reaction to comments contained in the BOE Minutes release. EUR/GBP popped to stg0.85145 on the data release, easing back to stg0.8505. Stronger demand interest noted between $1.5400/1.5390 with stops placed on a break below.

09:35
BOE MINUTES: Most Majority See Inflation Risks Shifting Upwards
  • Seven Members Supported Unchanged Rates, QE
  • Most of MPC Majority See Risks Shift Upwards On CPI
  • Sentance Voted For 25bp Rate Hike
  • Posen Vvoted To Increase QE by Stg50bn
09:17
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut,

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3315
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y83.25, Y84.00, Y84.15, Y84.25, Y84.75, Y85.00
GBP/USD $1.5450
GBP/USD Y133.40
USD/CHF Chf0.9700
CHF/JPY Y86.65
AUD/USD $0.9880/85, $0.9915
AUD/JPY Y82.50

08:51
Asian session:

The yen weakened against the euro, snapping a five-day gain, as optimism the global economic recovery is gathering momentum curbed demand for safer assets.
Japan’s currency fell before reports today that economists said will show German import prices rose and Italian retail sales rebounded.
New Zealand’s dollar weakened as economists said a government report tomorrow will show gross domestic product growth almost stalled.
The euro rebounded from near a three-week low versus the dollar as its 14-day stochastic oscillator chart fell to about 13, below the threshold of 20 that signals an asset is poised to reverse direction.
New Zealand’s dollar fell against 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts. A government report tomorrow will show gross domestic product rose 0.1 percent in the third quarter from 0.2 percent in the previous three-month period, according to a survey.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3150.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,5455-$ 1,5490.

USD/JPY: the pair shown high in the field of Y83,85 then decreased.


UK data includes the third estimate of Q3 GDP at 0930GMT, which comes along with Total Business Investment, Balance of payments data and also at the same time as the minutes of the latest MPC meeting from the
Bank of England. Expectations for the BoE minutes are for another three-way split of 1-7-1 with the MPC's Posen pushing for further QE and the MPC's Sentance seeking a 25bps rate hike. Traders may also look out
for any comments suggesting some MPC members believe the risks of inflation expectations becoming unhinged have risen in recent weeks. Also, there maybe comments related to potential contagion from the
Eurozone periphery debt problems.
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, while the main US data starts at 1330GMT with the third release of Q3 GDP, where GDP is expected to be revised up to a 3.0% rate of growth
due to stronger PCE growth, a larger inventory build, and a narrower net export gap than previously estimated. The chain price index is forecast to be unrevised at +2.3%. Analysts have already turned their attention
to the fourth quarter. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 4.75 million annual rate in November after dipping in October (NAR). At the same time, the FHFA Home
Price Index and also BLS Mass Layoffs data is due. The EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is due at 1530GMT.

08:43
Обзор финансово-экономической прессы: Deutsche Bank заплатит США за уход от налогов

BBC
Deutsche Bank заплатит США за уход от налогов
За помощь своим клиентам в уклонении от американских налогов Deutsche Bank выплатит властям США более полумиллиадра долларов.

EС: аэропорты - слабое звено европейской инфраструктуры
Комиссар Европейской комиссии по транспорту Сиим Каллас призвал европейские аэропорты серьезней заняться планированием и назвал их слабым звеном в инфраструктуре Западной Европы.

Die Welt
В Германии предполагаются огромные месторождения газа
Геологи полагают, что только в Нижней Саксонии и Северном Рейне-Вестфалии запасы сланцевого природного газа достигают 2,2 трлн кубометров. В свете скачкообразно растущих цен на газ месторождения сланцевого газа в Европе вызывают повышенный интерес.

08:39
Forex: Tuesday's review

The euro rose from near a two-week low against the dollar and yen after Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said his nation had taken “concrete action” to help the European Union with its debt problems.
The euro gained on speculation investments by China, which holds a record $2.65 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, will ease Europe’s sovereign fiscal crisis and boost the allure of assets in the region.
The single currency pared its gains and the Swiss franc strengthened after Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Portugal’s credit rating. Portugal today said its budget deficit narrowed in the 11 months through November, the first annual reduction in the shortfall this year. The government plans to cut state workers’ wages and raise taxes to convince investors it can narrow the euro region’s fourth-biggest budget gap.
The Swiss currency gained as safe-heaven after Moody’s placed Portugal’s A1 long-term rating and Prime-1 short-term rating on review.
Canada’s currency, nicknamed the loonie, fell versus most of its 16 major peers. It pared losses as stocks and crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, rose. The consumer price index increased less than economists anticipated, bolstering bets that the central bank will keep interest rates on hold.
Consumer prices advanced 2 percent in November from a year earlier after a 2.4 percent gain in October, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of economists in a survey was for a 2.2 percent pace.

EUR/USD: the pair finished session in the field of $1,3100.

GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1,5470.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,50-Y83,90.


UK data includes the third estimate of Q3 GDP at 0930GMT, which comes along with Total Business Investment, Balance of payments data and also at the same time as the minutes of the latest MPC meeting from the
Bank of England. Expectations for the BoE minutes are for another three-way split of 1-7-1 with the MPC's Posen pushing for further QE and the MPC's Sentance seeking a 25bps rate hike. Traders may also look out
for any comments suggesting some MPC members believe the risks of inflation expectations becoming unhinged have risen in recent weeks. Also, there maybe comments related to potential contagion from the
Eurozone periphery debt problems.
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, while the main US data starts at 1330GMT with the third release of Q3 GDP, where GDP is expected to be revised up to a 3.0% rate of growth
due to stronger PCE growth, a larger inventory build, and a narrower net export gap than previously estimated. The chain price index is forecast to be unrevised at +2.3%. Analysts have already turned their attention
to the fourth quarter. US data continues at 1500GMT, when the pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 4.75 million annual rate in November after dipping in October (NAR). At the same time, the FHFA Home
Price Index and also BLS Mass Layoffs data is due. The EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is due at 1530GMT.

07:51
US Stocks: Tuesday's review

The stock market advanced for the tenth time in 11 sessions to set a new two-year high as financials provided leadership in the face of a narrow gain by the greenback. However, action was generally anemic again as share volume dwindled.
The major stock indices of both Europe and Asia moved markedly higher overnight. Their gains helped inspire buying at home, such that domestic averages gapped higher in the early going.
Financials were quick to provide leadership to the broader market as the sector settled with a 1.6% gain. Bank stocks were especially strong. Diversified banks ripped to a 2.2% gain while regional banks advanced 1.9%. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD 71.95, +2.44) was a standout after the outfit confirmed its plan to take over Chrysler Financial. The $6.3 billion acquisition comes as part of the firm's expansionary effort.
Strength in the financial sector helped push the S&P 500 through near-term resistance around the 1250 zone. A couple of hours was spent consolidating those gains along the 1254 line before some late buying took the stock market to its best level since September 2008. The late move lost momentum, though, and the stock market settled in the 1254 to 1255 zone.
It is impressive that the stock market's advance came after the dollar turned an early loss into a narrow gain. Early weakness in the greenback came as the euro advanced after China's Vice Premier expressed that his country supports efforts by the European Union and International Monetary Fund to stem sovereign debt problems of the eurozone and countries in its periphery. Gains by the euro were partly clipped by early morning news that analysts at Moody's put Portugal's credit rating on review for possible downgrade, but were later completely dashed shortly after analysts at Fitch issued cautious commentary on Greece's credit rating.
Earnings news was limited. Both Jabil Circuit (JBL 19.55, +1.89) and Adobe Systems (ADBE 30.93, +1.75) posted better-than-expected earnings then went on to issue upside guidance.

07:17
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (Dec 15 high)
Resistance 2:Y84.20 (Sep 17 high)
Resistance 1:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Current price: Y83.71
Support 1:Y83.50 (Dec 21 low)
Support 2:Y82.80/90 (Dec 14 low, 38,2 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)
Support 3:Y82.30 (Dec 7 low, 50,0 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)


Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support - Y83,50. Below losses are possible to Y82.80/90. The nearest resistance - Y83,90. Above growth is possible to Y84.20. 

07:14
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 low, Dec 17-20 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9640 (resistance line from Dec 2)
Current price: Chf0.9626
Support 1: Chf0.9550 (around of Nov and Dec 14, 17, 21 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9460 (low of October)

Support 3: Chf0.9400 (psychological mark)

Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support Chf0,9620. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9550. The nearest resistance Chf0,9660. Above is located Chf0.9720.

06:49
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5760 (50,0% FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5450)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5650 (Dec 17 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5570 (Dec 21 high)
Current price: $1.5481
Support 1 : $1.5430 (Dec 21 low)
Support 2 : $1.5390 (МА (200) for D1)
Support 3 : $1.5300 (low of September)


Comments: the pair receded from yesterday's low. The nearest resistance - $1,5570. Above growth is possible to $1,5650. The nearest support - $1,5430. Below decrease is possible to $1.5390.

06:42
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 2: $ 1.3360 (Dec 17 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3220 (resistance line from Dec 14)

Resistance 1: $ 1.3195 (Dec 21 high)
Current price: $1.3172
Support 1 : $1.3075 (Dec 21 low)
Support 2 : $1.2970 (low of December and November)
Support 3 : $1.2790 (61.8% FIBO $1,1870-$ 1,4285)


Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - $1,3195. Above growth is possible to $1,3220. The nearest support - $1,3075. Below decrease is possible to $1.2970.

06:21
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Dec'22'2010:

05:00     Japan     BoJ monthly economic report (December)              
07:00     Germany     Import prices (November)         -    -0.2%
07:00     Germany     Import prices (November) Y/Y         -    9.2%
07:00     Germany     Import prices excluding oil (November) Y/Y         -    7.7%
08:30     Italy     Consumer confidence (December)         108.3    108.5
09:00     Italy     Retail sales (October) adjusted         0.1%    -0.2%
09:00     Italy     Retail sales (October) Y/Y unadjusted         -    0.3%
09:30     UK     BoE meeting minutes (08-09.12)              
09:30     UK     GDP (Q3) final Y/Y         0.8%    0.8%
09:30     UK     GDP (Q3) final Y/Y          2.8%    2.8%
09:30     UK     Current account (Q3), bln          -8.4    -7.4
13:30     USA     GDP (Q3) final Y/Y         2.8%    2.5%
13:30     USA     PCE price index (Q3) final         -    1.0%
13:30     USA     PCE price index ex food, energy (Q3) final         -    0.8%
15:00     USA     Existing home sales (November), mln         4.71    4.43

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