CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-07-2014

During the U.S. session on Forex U.S. dollar rose against most currencies after the release of the inflation report and housing data.

Consumer prices continued to rise in June, but slightly slowed down compared to the previous month. This was stated in the report submitted to the Department of Labor.

According to the data, the June consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% after rising 0.4% in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the index rose by 0.1% compared to 0.4% in May. Economists predicted a 0.3% growth of the overall index and a 0.2% increase in the benchmark.

In annual terms, the consumer price index rose by 2.1%, which corresponded to an increase in the previous month and was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose by 1.9% per annum, the pace slowed slightly compared to May (when the index rose by 2%). Economists had expected an increase of 2.0%,

Also add that the index for personal consumption expenditures, which is the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, rose by 1.8% per annum, while the core index (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.5%.

In turn, the volume of sales in the secondary market in the U.S. has grown significantly at the end of June, while fixing the third monthly increase in a row, which is a sign of recovery after months of decline.

National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that seasonally adjusted sales in the secondary market rose in June by 2.6%, reaching an annual rate of 5.04 million units, the highest since October last year. We also add that the figure for May was revised upward - to 4.91 million units from 4.89 million units. Economists had expected sales to increase to 4.98 million level

"We see that the recovery in the housing market takes on a broader basis," - said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. He also pointed to an increase in purchases made by those who are first-time buyers, and highlighted the improvement in single-family housing sector sales and condominiums. But despite the growth, the market has not regained its former strength. Compared to last year, sales in June fell 2.3%. We also add that the current pace of sales roughly correspond to the level of 2000.

Today's report also showed that prices rose more slowly than in previous months. The average sales price of the home in June was $ 223,300, which is 4.3% higher than the same period last year. Also note that the number of homes for sale rose by 6.5% compared with a year earlier. Given the current pace of sales will require 5.5 months to exhaust the entire stock.

Pound fell, came under pressure amid a general strengthening of the dollar against European rivals. British data reflected the drop in public sector borrowing (PSNB) to £ 9.506 billion in June from £ 10.300 billion forecast, although pound for almost did not react. We also learned that Britain's budget deficit widened in the first three months of the fiscal year, as an increase in investment income was offset by a slight change. This was stated in the report submitted to the Office for National Statistics. According to reports, the UK's budget deficit increased to 36,100 billion pounds ($ 45.600 billion) in the three months fingoda (June), compared with 33.7 billion pounds in the same period last year. Higher spending on benefits, local governments and investment income offset rising by 1.6%. Meanwhile, it became known that the June budget deficit was at 11.4 billion pounds, compared with 11.5 billion pounds last year. Taking into account the transfers from the Bank of England, the budget deficit in June 2013 was 7.6 billion pounds.

European stocks rose, rebounding from three days of losses, as companies from Actelion Ltd. to ARM Holdings Plc projected an improvement in financial results.

National benchmark indexes advanced in every western-European market except Iceland. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index (UKX) climbed 1 percent, while France's CAC 40 Index rallied 1.5 percent and Germany's DAX Index rose 1.3 percent. The volume of Stoxx 600 shares changing hands was 19 percent lower than the 30-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said yesterday that the separatists agreed to release the victims' bodies, grant access to the crash site and hand over the two black boxes and data recorders. Ukraine's government blamed pro-Russian rebels for the attack, and the U.S. indicated its belief that the Russian military supplied the missile.

EU foreign ministers in Brussels debated how to exert pressure on Russia to remove obstacles to an investigation of how the flight came down over rebel-held territory. The EU needs a twin-track policy of pursuing diplomacy and taking tougher measures to add pressure on Russia, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters before the meeting.

Actelion advanced 2.6 percent to 112.40 Swiss francs. The drugmaker said core earnings will increase at least in the mid-teen percentage range this year, up from a previous growth forecast of a low single-digit percentage. The company reported first-half core earnings of 421 million francs ($469 million), exceeding the 360.3 million-franc average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

ARM jumped 5.7 percent to 881 pence. The chip designer whose products power Apple Inc.'s iPhone and iPad also posted second-quarter adjusted pretax profit of 94.2 million pounds ($161 million), beating the projection of 91.5 million pounds.

IG Group Holdings Plc climbed 7.7 percent to 619.5 pence after announcing a final dividend of 22.4 pence a share. That surpassed the Bloomberg Dividend Forecast of 18.05 pence a share. The British spread-betting firm reported full-year pretax profit of 194.7 million pounds, exceeding the 192.8 million-pound prediction of analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Credit Suisse retreated 1 percent to 25.84 francs. Switzerland's second-largest bank reported a second-quarter net loss of 700 million francs, the biggest since 2008, after paying $2.6 billion to settle a U.S. tax investigation. The lender also said it will exit commodities trading. Analysts on average had projected a net loss of 691 million-francs.

Publicis Groupe SA lost 4.7 percent to 56.11 euros. The French advertising company said second-quarter sales fell 1.5 percent to 1.76 billion euros ($2.4 billion), missing analysts' estimates, as the euro strengthened and markets including North America shrank.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell from a three-week high. The U.S. benchmark widened its discount to Brent as the European Union warned that Russia risks growing isolation over the downing of Malaysian Air flight MH17.

The EU pressed President Vladimir Putin to speed a probe into the downing of the plane as European foreign ministers met in Brussels to discuss further sanctions against Russia. U.S. crude supplies may have decreased 2.9 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before a government report tomorrow.

"The geopolitical situation definitely affects Brent more," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. "You have storage numbers tomorrow. It's a headline market."

WTI for August delivery, which expires today, slid 26 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $104.33 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed at $104.59 yesterday, the highest level since July 1. The more actively-traded September crude contract was down 31 cents at $102.55. Volume was 0.2 percent above the 100-day average.

Brent for September settlement was unchanged at $107.68 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after earlier gaining as much as 0.7 percent. The volume of all futures was 21 percent below the 100-day average.

The price of gold is reduced by a stronger dollar after a report on U.S. inflation. Consumer prices continued to rise in June, but slightly slowed down compared to the previous month. This was stated in the report submitted to the Department of Labor.

According to the data, the June consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3%, which followed an increase of 0.4% in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the index rose by 0.1% compared to 0.4% in May. Economists predicted a 0.3% growth of the overall index and a 0.2% increase in the benchmark.

In annual terms, the consumer price index rose by 2.1%, which corresponded to an increase in the previous month, and was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose by 1.9% per annum, the pace slowed slightly compared to May (when the index rose by 2%). Economists had expected an increase of 2.0%,

Also add that the index for personal consumption expenditures, which is the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, rose by 1.8% per annum, while the core index (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.5%.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1302.20 per ounce.

USDJPY 101.00 101.75 101.95 102.15

EURUSD 1.3450 1.3500 1.3540 1.3550 1.3565 1.3580 1.3600

GBPUSD 1.7075

USDCHF 0.9050

AUDUSD 0.9365

USDCAD 1.0745 1.0765 1.0800

NZDUSD 0.8575 0.8665

EURGBP 0.7975

EURJPY 137.00

U.S. stock futures rose as the standoff over a downed jet in Ukraine eased and investors assessed earnings from some companies.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,343.28 +127.57 +0.84%

Hang Seng 23,782.11 +394.97 +1.69%

Shanghai Composite 2,075.48 +21.00 +1.02%

FTSE 6,786.16 +57.72 +0.86%

CAC 4,352.12 +47.38 +1.10%

DAX 9,710.81 +98.76 +1.03%

Crude oil $104.72 (+0.12%)

Gold $1311.50 (-0.18%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Other:

Amazon.com (AMZN) downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup

Data

2:00 China Index of leading indicators in June +0.7% +1.3%

3:00 Australia Speech by RBA Glenn Stevens

4:30 Japan PMI in all sectors, m / m -4.3% May +0.7% +0.6%

6:00 Switzerland Trade Balance, 2.85 -2.97 1.37 billion

08:30 UK Net borrowing state. sector, 11.5 billion in June 10.3 9.5

10:00 UK factory orders balance of the Confederation of British Industry July 11 September 2

The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar, falling under the 1.3500 mark, and hit a low for more than 5 months. Apparent fall was not the catalyst, but the couple did not responded to the growth of European stock markets. So, apparently, acted classical scheme: that can not grow up must come down. EUR / USD absorbed foot and a low of 1.3480, marked the beginning of February. It is not clear if the bears are ready to derail a couple of euros to 1.3400 - the next key support, as the single currency still shows decent resistance lately.

Meanwhile, adding that investors are waiting for today's publication of the inflation data. According to the median forecast of economists, the consumer price index in June will grow by 2.1% on an annualized basis. The value may be the highest since October 2012. Recall that in the beginning of last week, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that interest rates may rise sooner than expected, if the economic recovery will continue to improve. Nevertheless, the Fed chief also said that if the recovery is disappointing, then monetary policy will remain accommodative. According to yesterday's publication of results of a survey of traders agency Bloomberg, at the moment there is 46% chance the Fed rate hike by June. Recall, June 30 a similar survey indicated a 40% chance.

Pound fell moderately, came under pressure amid a general strengthening of the dollar against European rivals. British data reflected the drop in public sector borrowing (PSNB) to £ 9.506 billion in June from £ 10.300 billion forecast, although pound for almost did not react. We also learned that Britain's budget deficit widened in the first three months of the fiscal year, as an increase in investment income was offset by a slight change. This was stated in the report submitted to the Office for National Statistics. According to reports, the UK's budget deficit increased to 36,100 billion pounds ($ 45.600 billion) in the three months fingoda (June), compared with 33.7 billion pounds in the same period last year. Higher spending on benefits, local governments and investment income offset rising by 1.6%. Meanwhile, it became known that the June budget deficit was at 11.4 billion pounds, compared with 11.5 billion pounds last year. Taking into account the transfers from the Bank of England, the budget deficit in June 2013 was 7.6 billion pounds.

The Japanese yen rose slightly against the U.S. dollar, approaching to the maximum since July 17. USD / JPY pair is attempting to find catalysts that will allow it to recover, and is scheduled for today a report by the U.S. CPI may be a factor in a significant move, especially if it confirms the growing price pressures noted in previous releases. Although the Fed prefers to refrain from any direct allusions to the time of the first rate hike, the market may find strong CPI argument in favor of earlier actions.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3476

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7057

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.59

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the consumer price index and the core consumer price index for June. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on sales in the secondary market in June.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3530

Bids $1.3475, $1.3400, $1.3360

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115

Bids $1.7040/35, $1.7005/00, $1.6950

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9450, $0.9420

Bids $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.50

Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.35, Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.80

Bids Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35

Bids stg0.7884-80, stg0.7850, stg0.7800

European stocks rose, breaking a three-day series of recession, which is associated with the expectation of meeting the Foreign Ministers of the European Union to discuss sanctions against Russia. U.S. index futures are little changed, while Asian shares rose.

Recall that last night the UN Security Council unanimously approved a resolution demanding an international investigation of the crash Malaysia Airlines in the Donetsk region.

Today, the foreign ministers of the European Union will meet in Brussels on new sanctions against Russia. However, the fact that the militants handed "black boxes" crashed over Ukraine Boeing representatives of Malaysia, and the members of the OSCE monitoring mission had full access to the crash site, reduces the likelihood of adoption of new sanctions Tuesday action against Russia, experts say.

Meanwhile, we add that the ground offensive in Gaza also remains in the spotlight. Hopes for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip rose after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and UN chief Ban Ki-moon arrived in Cairo for talks aimed at ending the bloodshed.

The price of the Swiss pharmaceutical company Actelion Ltd. increased by 2.9% after forecasting annual profits.

Shares of the second largest bank in Switzerland, Credit Suisse Group AG fell 2.6% in trading in Zurich. Credit Suisse recorded in the II quarter of the largest net loss in 2008 due to a fine of $ 2.6 billion in the United States. On Tuesday, the bank announced its withdrawal from the feed business under reorganization investment banking division.

The market value of the Norwegian aluminum producer Norsk Hydro AHA decreased by 1.7% as the company's financial results were weaker than market expectations.

Quotes of the securities of the French advertising company Publicis Groupe SA fell 3.9%. Because of the strong euro revenue in the II quarter decreased by 1.5% to 1.76 billion euros, missing the consensus.

Royal Mail shares fell 0.6% after the announcement that the revenue from the transportation of parcels in the three months to June 29, down 1% compared to the same period last year. The company added that it is still likely to reach their target annual figures.

Paper IG Group Holdings Plc rose 6.9 percent after the announcement of a final dividend in the amount of 22.4 pence per share, which was more than the experts' forecasts at 18.05 pence per share.

At the current moment

FTSE 100 6,784.44 +56.00 +0.83%

CAC 40 4,341.54 +36.80 +0.85%

DAX 9,696.11 +84.06 +0.87%

USDJPY 101.00 101.75 101.95 102.15

EURUSD 1.3450 1.3500 1.3540 1.3550 1.3565 1.3580 1.3600

GBPUSD 1.7075

USDCHF 0.9050

AUDUSD 0.9365

USDCAD 1.0745 1.0765 1.0800

NZDUSD 0.8575 0.8665

EURGBP 0.7975

EURJPY 137.00

Asian stocks advanced, with the regional benchmark index on course for its highest close in six years, as investors bet rising tensions in Ukraine over the shooting down of a jetliner won't curb global economic growth.

S&P/ASX 200 5,543.29 +3.35 +0.06%

TOPIX 1,273.27 +9.98 +0.79%

SHANGHAI COMP 2,075.48 +21.00 +1.02%

HANG SENG 23,773.24 +386.10 +1.65%

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's biggest producer of the metal, jumped 6.2 percent as mainland stocks listed in Hong Kong led gains. All 10 industry groups on the regional gauge rose. Kangwon Land Inc., a South Korean casino and hotel services provider, surged 4.2 percent. Oriental Land Co. slipped 1.6 percent after the Nikkei reported profit at the operator of Tokyo's Disney resort will fall.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3625 (3228)

$1.3594 (908)

$1.3555 (97)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3523

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3500 (4144)

$1.3481 (2645)

$1.3453 (7698)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26196 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3934);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34746 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7698);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 21

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7301 (1362)

$1.7202 (1548)

$1.7106 (2065)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7077

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6995 (2881)

$1.6898 (2108)

$1.6799 (1398)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16444 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2415);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23484 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2881);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.43 versus 1.42 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:00 China Leading Index June +0.7% +1.3%

03:00 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m May -4.3% +0.7% +0.6%

A gauge of the dollar was 0.1 percent from the highest in a month as an increase in short-term U.S. Treasury yields signaled mounting expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

The correlation between dollar-yen and Treasury two-year yields rose to the highest since March, before data today that may show inflation held at the fastest pace since 2012. U.S. consumer prices climbed at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in June, matching May's figure that was the most since October 2012, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before today's Labor Department report. The inflation rate has increased from 1.1 percent in February.

Traders saw a 46 percent chance the Fed will raise the target rate for overnight bank lending by June, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg as of yesterday. That's up from a 40 percent possibility on June 30.

The Australian dollar rebounded after RBA Governor Stevens didn't comment directly on the currency, monetary policy stance or the outlook for the domestic economy in prepared remarks at a luncheon today in Sydney. The currency tumbled 1 percent on July 3 when he said it was "overvalued" by most measures. Australia's statistics bureau may say tomorrow consumer prices climbed 3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest increase since December 2011, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler will raise borrowing costs for a fourth time this year, to 3.5 percent on July 24, according to all except one of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Policy makers will boost rates by 69 basis points during the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index. That compares with a projected increase of as much as 135 basis points in March.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3520-30

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.7080

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y101.50

UK public borrowing data due up at 0830GMT provides the domestic interest today, though overshadowed by US inflation data at 1230GMT.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 104.65 +0.06%

Gold 1,312.30 -0.12%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

S&P/ASX 200 5,539.9 +8.24 +0.15%

SHANGHAI COMP 2,054.57 -4.50 -0.22%

HANG SENG 23,449.7 -5.09 -0.02%

FTSE 100 6,728.44 -21.01 -0.31%

CAC 40 4,304.74 -30.57 -0.71%

Xetra DAX 9,612.05 -107.97 -1.11%

S&P 500 1,973.63 -4.59 -0.23%

NASDAQ 4,424.7 -7.44 -0.17%

Dow Jones 17,051.73 -48.45 -0.28%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3522 -0,01%

GBP/USD $1,7072 -0,07%

USD/CHF Chf0,8979 -0,07%

USD/JPY Y101,41 +0,07%

EUR/JPY Y137,13 +0,04%

GBP/JPY Y173,12 +0,01%

AUD/USD $0,9370 -0,22%

NZD/USD $0,8686 +0,03%

USD/CAD C$1,0737 +0,06%