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22.03.2011
19:14
Dow -11.28 at 12025.25, Nasdaq -7.48 at 2684.61, S&P -3.53 at 1294.85

Only an hour remains before the closing bell will toll. That has many market watchers looking ahead on the calendar of events.
After the close, Adobe Systems (ADBE 32.77, +0.43), Jabil Circuit (JBL 18.90, -0.61), and Discover Financial Services (DFS 22.59, -0.05) post their latest quarterly results.

18:51
OIL:

April contract settled today at $103.85 and May moves to the front contract slot from Wednesday. May trading at $105.09, up $2.00 on the day.

18:22
GOLD:

Spot gold holds at $1424.50/oz on the high side of a $1419.80 to $1432.05 range. The precious metal topped out at a new life-time high of $1444.40 March 7 and fell to $$1380.90, before rebounding.

18:03
Dow -21.20 at 12015.33, Nasdaq -12.07 at 2680.02, S&P -4.88 at 1293.50

Renewed selling pressure has the stock market back near session lows. Oil prices have also pulled back so that it now trades just below $104 per barrel with a $0.90 per barrel.
The dollar's doldrums continue as it loses ground to competing currencies. Weakness in the greenback has the euro up to $1.421 and the yen at 80.920 yen per dollar.

17:36
US focus: Euro falls as Irish note yields add

The euro fell for the first time in three days against the dollar as investors speculated Europe’s leaders will struggle to find a permanent mechanism to the regions debt crisis.

EU finance chiefs settled yesterday on a permanent rescue fund to lend 500 billion euros ($712 billion) as of 2013, while remaining divided over how to get the current stopgap fund to its full capacity. Work thrashing out a solution to the region’s credit woes is due to culminate at a March 24-25 summit of European leaders.
The euro earlier touched a five-month high against the greenback after European Central Bank Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell and Governing Council member Yves Mersch both said yesterday that “strong vigilance” is necessary to keep a lid on inflation.
New Zealand’s dollar was the best performer against the dollar. The International Monetary Fund said the nation’s central bank may need to raise rates “relatively quickly” once the economy begins to recover.
The pound rose, as inflation data bolstered the case for the Bank of England to increase rates.
Consumer prices rose 4.4% in February from a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics, higher than the 4.2% median forecast of economists.

16:50
Techs on USD/JPY
Resistance 3:Y82.50             
Resistance 2:Y82.00            
Resistance 1:Y81.30             
Current price: Y81.00
Support 1:Y80.60                
Support 2:Y79.80           
Support 2:Y78.25               
Comments: кate continues to hold within then narrow range. Support is near Y80.60. Below losses may widen to Y79.80 (Mar 17 high). Minor resistance is near Y81.30 (recent high). Break above opens the way to Y82.00 (Mar 15 high).
16:31
Techs on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9370
Resistance 2: Chf0.9200

Resistance 1: Chf0.9120
Current price: Chf0.9034
Support 1: Chf0.9000
Support 2: Chf0.8920                 
Support 3: Chf0.8900                

Comments: Dollar holds within 40-points range with no changes in tech. Strong resistance is around
Chf0.9120 (23.6% Fibo of Chf0.9770 - Chf0.8920 move). Further resistance comes at Mar 02 lows at Chf0.9200. Stronger level comes at Mar 09 high on Chf0.9370. Minor support is near Chf0.9000 with key support comes at record lows on Chf0.8920.
16:18
Techs on GBP/USD
Resistance 3:$1.6500         
Resistance 2:$1.6460          
Resistance 1:$1.6400
Current price: $1.6383
Support 1: $1.6300          
Support 2: $1.6200
Support 3: $1.6060

Comments: Rate holds a bit lowe session highs on $1.6400 (resistance now). Break above opens the way to $1.6460 (2010 high) and then - to $1.6500. Support comes at earlier EU lows on $1.6290/00. Below there is a chance to weaken to
$1.6200 and $1.6060 (Mar 18 low).
15:59
Techs on EUR/USD
Resistance 3:$1.4320             
Resistance 2:$1.4280             
Resistance 1:$1.4240             
Current price: $1.4197
Support 1: $1.4180
Support 2: $1.4140                   
Support 3: $1.4000

Comments: Euro losses were capped and rate recovers again to the figure. Resistance comes at $1.4240 (Mar 21 high). Above there is a room for a rise up to $1.4280 (Nov 05 high). Support is around $1.4180 (session low). Below losses may widen to $1.4140 (Mar 21 low). Stronger support comes at channel line from Mar 11 on $1.4000 today.

15:35
EUR/USD holds tight

EUR/USD holds $1.4191, but the single currency remains on the defensive and near morning lows at $1.4179. Bids in place to $1.4160/50. Below there, talk suggests stop risk below $1.4150.

15:18
OIL:

May WTI Nymex Crude recovered strongly from earlier lows of $102.11 to a $103.75 high on the day. A break through yesterday's high of $104.27 targets the $104.55 high of March 17. Crude trades around $103.70.

14:55
European stocks under pressure

 

European shares reversed slim gains and turned negative on Tuesday afternoon in choppy trading, with traders citing the ongoing Libyan conflict, rising tensions elsewhere in the region and prospects for an ECB rate rise next month.

14:31
Dow -7.19 at 12029.70, Nasdaq -3.85 at 2688.22, S&P -1.98 at 1296.63

The major equity averages have slipped after hugging the neutral line for the first few minutes of trade. The action comes as the S&P 500 continues to contend with resistance in the 1300 zone.
Retailers are showing relative strength, though. As a group, retailers are up 0.4%, according to the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 48.90, +0.10). A strong quarterly report from apparel and accessories retailer Express (EXPR 18.25, +0.85) has helped support positive sentiment in that space.
In-line earnings from Walgreen (WAG 38.60, -3.37) have made the stock one of this morning's worst performers. Its weakness has imbued shares of CVS (CVS 33.28, -0.45) and Rite Aid (RAD 1.06, -0.01).

14:03
BOE Sentance: Risk Of Destabilising Rate Hikes; CPI Over 5%
14:01
US: Richmond Fed Mar mfg index 20 vs 25
13:51
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4250, $1.4200, $1.4100
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.00, Y80.85, Y80.50, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.6325
EUR/GBP stg0.8700
EUR/CHF Chf1.2840
AUD/USD $1.0120, $1.0100
AUD/JPY Y80.00, 82.65
NZD/USD $0.7450(large)

13:37
Orders desk:

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.30/40, Y81.50/60, Y82.00, Y83.00
Bids: Y80.85, Y80.50, Y80.25, Y80.15/10

13:17
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were headed for a flat open Tuesday as investors took a step back from the previous session's rally. They also considered a more than 4% boost in Tokyo's Nikkei index as the nuclear situation in Japan continued to show signs of improvement.


U.S. stocks rallied for a third straight session Monday, as Japan made progress in cooling its nuclear reactors and investors cheered AT&T's (T) $39 billion deal to acquire T-Mobile.
The Dow finished Monday's session above the 12,000-point mark for the first time since the Japanese earthquake on March 11.
Oil for April delivery slipped 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $101.70 a barrel. May delivery will become the front-month contract after the close of trade, and it's already the most active contract, falling 62 cents, or 0.6%, to $102.47
World markets:


Economy: Investors don't have much to look at in the way of economic data Tuesday, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency's home price index the only report on deck.
Companies: After the close, software maker Adobe Systems (ADBE) and credit card company Discover (DIS) are on tap to report results.
Late Monday, news reports revealed that Apple had sued Amazon in California federal court. In the complaint, Apple asked a judge to block Amazon from using the term "Appstore." Three years ago, Apple was granted a trademark on its own "App Store."
Gold futures for April delivery fell $1.10, or 0.1%, to $1,425.30 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged, holding the yield at 3.32%.

12:50
FED: Fisher expects around 3.5% growth in US this year
  • US debt ceiling negotiations are up to politicians but real issue is sizeable deficits, unfunded liabilities;
  • Current path would lead to insolvency for US.;
  • Will not end up insolvent but are at tipping point.
12:31
CANADA: Jan retail sales -0.3% m/m vs Dec -0.2%

Jan retail sales ex-autos 0.0% m/m

12:23
European session:

The euro reached a five-month high against the dollar amid speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates next month and as stocks rose, lessening the appeal of safe-haven assets.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell and Governing Council member Yves Mersch both said yesterday that “strong vigilance” is necessary to keep a lid on inflation.
“It’s a risk-on and monetary tightening story,” said Jeremy Stretch, executive director of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “Euro-dollar is a beneficiary of that and looks like it’s going to continue to trade higher.”
The pound surged to the highest level in more than a year against the dollar as U.K. inflation accelerated more than economists forecast, renewing speculation the Bank of England will raise interest rates.
Sterling also appreciated versus the euro, while gilt yields jumped to the highest in a week. Consumer prices rose 4.4 percent in February from a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics, higher than the 4.2 percent median forecast of economists.

EUR/USD: reached $1.4248.
GBP/USD: jumped up to $1.6400.
USD/JPY: traded within  Y80.80-Y81.30 range.
11:45
AUD/USD posted new session high

Climb extends through earlier reported stops at $1.0120 to a high of $1.0128 and working through some dotted retail supply up to $1.0150. Some demand also seen in aussie-yen as cross breaks through Y82.00 to a high of Y82.13

10:52
GBP/USD reached $1.6400

Stops triggered on the break of $1.6380 and takes rate on to offers placed at $1.6400, a break above to open a move on toward $1.6420 ahead of stronger interest at 2010 high $1.6450/60.

10:38
ECB STARK: Conditions there, good reasons to normalize monpol
  • There is a risk of second round effects;
  • Information, judgment might change given uncertainty;
  • Impact of japan events difficult to assess;
  • ECB did not commit to april rate hike;
  • Staff projections currently factor in rise expectations;
  • Remains to be seen if more fx intervention needed;
  • G7 ready to provide any support needed to Japan;
  • 'What is considered by ecb' is step in normalizing direc;
  • Are in process of phasing out non-stand measures;
  • Banks less dependent on our ops,clear sign normalization;
  • Bond buys to be phased out asap, when conditions in place;
  • Econ growth in euro area 'ongoing',but higher inflation;
  • Uncertainties increased vs last meeting, due commods;
  • Inflation outlook not changed since last meeting;
  • Inflation expectations in EMU still anchored.
10:36
ECB STARK: Conditions there, good reasons to normalize monpol
  • There is a risk of second round effects;
  • Information, judgment might change given uncertainty;
  • Impact of japan events difficult to assess;
  • ECB did not commit to april rate hike;
  • Staff projections currently factor in rise expectations;
  • Remains to be seen if more fx intervention needed;
  • G7 ready to provide any support needed to Japan;
  • 'What is considered by ecb' is step in normalizing direc;
  • Are in process of phasing out non-stand measures;
  • Banks less dependent on our ops,clear sign normalization;
  • Bond buys to be phased out asap, when conditions in place;
  • Econ growth in euro area 'ongoing',but higher inflation;
  • Uncertainties increased vs last meeting, due commods;
  • Inflation outlook not changed since last meeting;
  • Inflation expectations in EMU still anchored.
10:05
FTSE +17.51 +0.30% 5,804; CAC +17.82 +0.46% 3,922; DAX +4.66 +0.07% 6,821
09:51
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4100, $1.4075, $1.4000 
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y80.85, Y80.50, Y80.00
EUR/JPY Y112.35
GBP/USD $1.6325, $1.6165
AUD/USD $1.0020, $1.0000, $0.9900
AUD/JPY Y80.00, 82.65

09:33
UK Data:

 

Feb CPI +0.7% m/m; +4.4% y/y; 
Feb core CPI 0.8% m/m; +3.4% y/y;
Feb RPIX +1% m/m; +5.5% y/y; Feb RPI +1% m/m; +5.5% y/y
09:27
Asian session:

The yen was within 0.4 percent of a two-week low against the euro as Asian stocks rose and progress by Japan in restoring a crippled nuclear plant’s cooling systems reduced demand for the currency as a refuge.
The euro rose to the strongest in four months versus the dollar on prospects European Central Bank officials will reiterate this week their willingness to raise interest rates next month. 
The yen erased early losses against the greenback on concern Japanese investors are repatriating overseas assets. 
The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, reached 75.304, the lowest since December 2009.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.4240.
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.6340.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80.80-Y81.30.


UK Inflation data is also out at 0930GMT. The Bank of England, in its February Inflation Report, forecast Q1 CPI would average 4.08%. If CPI does rise to 4.2% in Feb, as analysts expect (0.6% m/m), it is going to have to drop to 4.1% in March to get back in line with the BOE's forecast.
UK data continues at 1100GMT with the CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Manufacturing has been a bright spot in the UK's economic recovery. 

09:16
Forex: Monday's review

The yen weakened for a second day as Japan made progress in cooling nuclear reactors at a crippled plant, increasing appetite for higher-yielding assets.
The yen extended losses after sliding the most against the dollar in six months on March 18, when the Group of Seven nations intervened to bring the currency down from a postwar high. 
The yen surged to a post-World War II high of 76.25 versus the dollar on March 17 after a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami struck Japan on March 11, damaging cooling systems at a nuclear-power plant north of Tokyo. The currency’s gain came amid speculation investors were repatriating assets to fund an estimated 10 trillion yen ($123.6 billion) for reconstruction.
Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan said today he sees “light at the end of the tunnel” for Japan’s crisis and that progress is being made in restoring power to reactors at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant.
The G-7, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Canada and Italy, sold yen on March 18 after finance ministers spoke on a conference call, according to Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi. The G-7 statement promised to “provide any cooperation” with Japan.
Euro-area finance ministers plan to meet in Brussels to further develop a package of measures on the region’s debt crisis and economic governance. European Union leaders will hold a summit March 24-25 to discuss the measures.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed for a second day as higher oil prices increased demand for currencies linked to commodities. Crude oil futures rose as much as 2.3% in New York.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger above a mark $1.4200.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger above a mark $1.6300.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80.80-Y81.30.

UK Inflation data is also out at 0930GMT. The Bank of England, in its February Inflation Report, forecast Q1 CPI would average 4.08%. If CPI does rise to 4.2% in Feb, as analysts expect (0.6% m/m), it is going to have to drop to 4.1% in March to get back in line with the BOE's forecast.
UK data continues at 1100GMT with the CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Manufacturing has been a bright spot in the UK's economic recovery. 

09:03
Stocks: Monday's review

Financial markets in Japan were closed on Monday in observance of national holiday.

European stocks rose, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to the biggest three-day gain since July, as Japan’s atomic crisis eased and U.S. officials said its allies are in full control of Libya’s airspace following two days of airstrikes.
Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) jumped 11 percent after AT&T Inc. agreed to buy T-Mobile USA from the German phone company for $39 billion.
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) and Hellenic Telecommunications organization SA (HTO) surged more than 3 percent.
ING Groep NV (INGA) gained 3.6 percent as General Electric Co. was said to be among companies looking at the Dutch firm’s U.S. online bank.
Taylor Wimpey Plc (TW/) rose 3.5 percent to 41.27 pence after Credit Suisse Group AG upgraded the U.K.’s second-largest homebuilder by volume to “outperform” from “neutral.”
Essar Energy Plc (ESSR) dropped 7.3 percent to 440.4 pence after the Indian oil refiner and power plant operator said it incurred delays in gaining approval for the development of some domestic coal blocks. The company, which today reported an 11 percent increase in full-year net income, also said it’s investing $9.58 billion to help increase its power generation capacity in India more than sevenfold by 2014.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he can see “light at the end of the tunnel” as workers at the troubled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant reconnected power to two of the failed reactors. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the earthquake is a buying opportunity and he won’t sell his Japanese shares as the nation’s future hasn’t been changed because of the temblor.

U.S. stocks remained in rally mode on Monday, with the Dow surging nearly 175 points in a broad-based rally.
Stocks spiked at the open Monday, and have remained steadily higher throughout the session.
Investors rallied behind positive news regarding Japan's nuclear crisis, as well as AT&T's $39 billion deal to acquire T-Mobile USA. Shares of AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500) were both higher in mid-day trading, although AT&T shares pared back some of its earlier gains.
Shares of AT&T's smaller competitor Sprint Nextel (S, Fortune 500), which had been reported to be in talks with Deutsche Telekom, fell 16% -- making it the worst performer on the S&P 500.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF) was the biggest gainer on the S&P 500, after the luxury retailer reported a stronger-than-expected profit.
Aside from corporate news, investors continue to react to developments in Japan and Libya.
Over the weekend, Japanese engineers made progress in cooling nuclear reactors that had overheated, following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck the country March 11.
Meanwhile, turmoil in North Africa heated up. The United States and its allies launched an airstrike on Libyan military targets Monday, in an effort to subdue forces of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.
Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel in electronic trading, following the attack.
Economy: The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell to an annual rate of 4.88 million in February, which was much lower than the 5.05 million most economists forecasted.
Companies: Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) shares fell 1.5% after the bank announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split and said it plans to reinstate its quarterly dividend.

07:59
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y82.50 (Mar 14 high) 
Resistance 2:Y82.00 (Mar 15 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.30 (session high, Mar 21 high) 
Current price: Y80.91
Support 1:Y80.80 (session low, Mar 21 low)    
Support 2:Y79.80 (Mar 17 low)    
Support 2:Y78.25 (Mar 17 intradey low)    
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support - Y80,80. Below losses are possible to Y79.80. The nearest resistance - Y81.30. Above growth is possible to Y82.00.

07:56
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9370-Chf0,8920)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9090 (Mar 18 high, 38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9370-Chf0,8920)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9060 (resistance line from Mar 18)
Current price: Chf0.9023
Support 1: Chf0.8960 (Mar 17 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8920 (Mar 16 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8900 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support - Chf0.8960. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8920. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9060. Above is located Chf0.9090.

07:51
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6500 (psychological mark)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6460 (high of 2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6340 (Mar 2, 7 and 21 high)
Current price: $1.6303
Support 1 : $1.6200 (Mar 21 low)
Support 2 : $1.6060 (Mar 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.5975 (Mar 11, 15 and 17 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of reached yesterday. The nearest support $1.6200. Below is possible testings of around $1.6060. The nearest resistance $1.6330/40.  Above growth is possible to $1.6460. 

07:48
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4320 (resistance line from Jul 2008)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4280 (Nov 5 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4240 (Mar 21 high)
Current price: $1.4220
Support 1 : $1.4200 (session low, support line from Mar 17)
Support 2 : $1.4140 (Mar 21 high)
Support 3 : $1.3980 (support line from Mar 11, МА (200) for Н1, Mar 18 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest resistance - $1.4240. Above growth is possible to $1,4280. The nearest support $1,4200. Below losses are possible to $1.4140. 

07:05
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Mar 22 2011:

04:30 Japan  All industry index (January) 2.8% -0.2%
09:30 UK HICP (February) 0.6% 0.1%
09:30 UK HICP (February) Y/Y 4.2% 4.0%
09:30 UK HICP ex EFAT (February) Y/Y 3.1% 3.0%
09:30 UK Retail prices (February) 0.7% 0.3%
09:30 UK Retail prices (February) Y/Y 5.3% 5.1%
09:30 UK RPI-X (February) Y/Y 5.2% 5.1%
09:30 UK PSNCR (February), bln -4.2 -14.4
09:30 UK PSNB (February), bln 7.9 -5.3
11:00 UK CBI industrial order books balance (March) -6% -8%
11:00 UK CBI industrial output balance (March) - 23%
12:30 Canada Retail sales (January) 1.1% -0.2%
12:30 Canada Retail sales excluding auto (January) - 0.6%

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