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21.12.2010
19:04
American focus: the Canadian dollar traded near the lowest level in almost three weeks versus its U.S. counterpart as a report showing slower inflation overshadowed another that said retail sales rose more than forecast.


Canada’s currency, nicknamed the loonie, fell versus most of its 16 major peers. It pared losses as stocks and crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, rose. The consumer price index increased less than economists anticipated, bolstering bets that the central bank will keep interest rates on hold.


“The CPI number wasn’t enough to change perceptions of the Bank of Canada, and the retail sales number, which might have caused a little bit more Canadian dollar strength, actually had a little bit of a squishy undertone,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital unit in Toronto. “We’re still weaker than yesterday’s close, but it’s pretty tightly packed around that closing level.”

Consumer prices advanced 2 percent in November from a year earlier after a 2.4 percent gain in October, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 2.2 percent pace.

18:03
US DATA: Staffing employment in December is 16% higher than in the same month last year, according to the ASA Staffing Index.
The index for December is 101, up one index point from 100 in November, suggesting that U.S. staffing employment has increased 1% over the past month.
16:41
Dow +41.06 at 11519.19, Nasdaq +13.25 at 2662.81, S&P +5.50 at 1252.58

Consumer staples stocks have taken a downturn in recent trade. The sector had been up 0.3% at its session high, but it is now down to a 0.3% loss, which puts it at a fresh session low. Losses in Colgate-Palmolive (CL 79.70, -0.78) and Philip Morris International (PM 58.45, -0.47) have imbued the broader consumer staples space with weakness.
While the defensive-oriented consumer staples space has come under pressure, so have Treasuries. Losses among Treasuries are only modest, but their weakness comes after they had traded with solid gains ahead of the open. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down just a few ticks and the 30-year Bond is off by about a dozen ticks.

15:32
Dow +32.62 at 11510.75, Nasdaq +10.12 at 2659.70, S&P +4.10 at 1251.12

An opening bid took the S&P 500 up to 1252, which marks a fractionally improved two-year high, but it has since wavered a bit.
Financials are a source of early leadership. The sector is up 0.7% with help from consumer finance plays (+1.1%), regional banks (+1.1%), and diversified banks (+1.0%).
Consumer discretionary plays are trailing. Their collective losses have the sector down 0.3%. Auto retailers (-2.9%) are in some of the worst shape amid the latest quarterly report from CarMax (KMX 32.95, -2.95). Shares of KMX were actually bid higher in premarket action, but sharp pressure at the open prompted a precipitous drop.

14:44
MOODY'S: Expects Spain rating to remain in AA rating category
  • Portugal's rating will also remain investment grade;
  • Greek rating will stay consistent with no default
14:38
MOODY'S: Euro zone characterised significant financial strength
  • Expects EMU leaders to do what needed avoid a default
14:33
UK CAMERON: Our credit rating is safe
  • Global economy remains fragile
  • Clear-eyed and vigilant about economic risks
14:23
UK CAMERON: Our credit rating is safe
  • Global economy remains fragile;
  • Clear-eyed and vigilant about economic risks
14:21
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to open higher Tuesday morning, following a global market rally and as investors set their sights on 2011.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were up about 0.3% ahead of the opening bell.


On Monday, stocks ended mixed after waffling between gains and losses. The three major indexes have risen to two-year highs during the last few weeks, since President Obama announced the compromise deal on the Bush-era tax rates. Last Friday, the president signed a tax-cut plan into law.


Stocks rose about 5% this month, and are poised for double-digit gains for the year.
Companies: Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) -- the Japanese automaker that suffered a series of high-profile recalls -- will pay $32.4 million in civil penalties, the U.S. Department of Transportation said Monday. The penalty is the maximum allowed by law. Toyota's stock was little changed in premarket trade.
After the closing bell, Nike (NKE) will report its quarterly results. Analysts expect the sporting giant to report earnings per share of 88 cents, up 12 cents from the same period last year.
After the closing bell on Monday, Adobe Systems (ADBE) reported a profit of $269 million, or 53 cents per share, compared with a loss of $32 million, or 6 cents per share, during the same period a year earlier. Shares of Adobe surged 7% in premarket trade.
World markets:


Economy: There are no major economic reports on tap for Tuesday.
Oil for February delivery slipped 1 cent to $89.36 a barrel.
Gold futures for February delivery added 60 cents to $1,386.70 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury ticked up, pushing the yield down to 3.30%.

14:03
EUR/USD posted new session high

Traders linking the lift in the pair to demand from a semi-official name and also to demand related to Euro-Stoxx demand, though both suggestions are mentioned in less than compelling terms. Euro stalling now after high prints at $1.3190 area, the earlier slide on Portugal ratings action perhaps leaving a few shorts to be squeezed. Offers expected at $1.3215/20 area shud the shortsqueeze continue. Bids remain at $1.3140/35, ahead of $1.3100-$1.3090.

13:47
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3215/20, $1.3240/50, $1.3270/80
Bids: $1.3135/30, $1.3100, $1.3090, $1.3060/50

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.5500/10, $1.5520/25, $1.5540/50, $1.5575/85
Bids: $1.5450, $1.5400, $1.5350/40

13:30
CANADA: Oct retail sales ex-autos +0.9% m/m
13:30
CANADA: Oct retail sales +0.8% m/m
13:07
EUR/GBP back to figure

EUR/GBP extended gains to stg0.8515, following the break above stg0.8500, with offers seen palced around stg0.8513 (61.8% stg0.8554/0.8446). A break of stg0.8515/20 to open a move toward stg0.8530 (76.4%). Cross currently holds around stg0.8499.

13:03
EU session review: Euro strengthens after China says it has taken steps to ease debt crisis

Data released
00:01     UK     Gfk consumer confidence (December)    -21    -22    -21
03:30     Japan     BoJ meeting announcement    0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%
04:30     Japan     All industry index (October)    -0.2%    -0.2%    -0.8%
09:30     UK     PSNCR (November), bln    16.8    -    2.4
09:30     UK     PSNB (November), bln    23.3    17.0    10.3
12:00     Canada     CPI (November)    0.1%    0.3%    0.4%
12:00     Canada     CPI (November) Y/Y    2.0%    2.3%    2.4%
12:00     Canada     CPI core (November)    0.0%    0.2%    0.4%
12:00     Canada     CPI core (November) Y/Y    1.4%    1.6%    1.8%

The euro rose from near a two-week low against the dollar and yen after Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said his nation had taken “concrete action” to help the European Union with its debt problems.
“The comments by the Chinese vice premier, at face value, are a positive for the Europe and the euro because we have an additional provision of liquidity,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank AG. “It’s good news in the short run.”
The euro gained on speculation investments by China, which holds a record $2.65 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, will ease Europe’s sovereign fiscal crisis and boost the allure of assets in the region.
The EU is China’s largest trade partner and the Asian nation is Europe’s second-biggest export market, with bilateral trade increasing 33.1% in the 11 months through November from a year earlier to $433.88 billion.
“EU members have taken a number of steps to actively respond to the sovereign-debt crisis,” Wang said. “We hope these measures will quickly produce results and lead to a steady recovery of the EU economies.”
The single currency pared its gains and the Swiss franc strengthened after Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Portugal’s credit rating. Portugal today said its budget deficit narrowed in the 11 months through November, the first annual reduction in the shortfall this year. The government plans to cut state workers’ wages and raise taxes to convince investors it can narrow the euro region’s fourth-biggest budget gap.
The Swiss currency gained as safe-heaven after Moody’s placed Portugal’s A1 long-term rating and Prime-1 short-term rating on review.
Swiss exports declined in November as a stronger franc made goods less competitive abroad and the economic recovery lost some momentum.
Exports, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 3.4% from October, when they rose a revised 2.3%. Imports fell 3.3% from October, when they increased a revised 1.7%. The trade surplus was 1.93 billion Swiss francs, down from 2.05 billion francs.

EUR/USD tested $1.3200 before retreated to $1.3160. Later rate printed session high on $1.3202 before falling to $1.3131. Later rate recovered to $1.3156.

GBP/USD fell after weak UK data. Rate weakened from $1.5570 to $1.5480. After some consolidation pound slid to session lows on $1.5450.

USD/JPY holds within the narrow Y83.60/80 range.

     
Canada releases its Retail sales data at 13:30 GMT. Median estimate is +0.5% in Oct after +0.6% month earlier.
Australian Westpac is due to come at 23:30 GMT.

12:44
DB on LEI

DB says LEI should be watched because it's signaling a pickup in growth. "In the last three months, the LEI has grown 8.6% at an annualized rate, up sharply from just a 0.4% annualized rate for the three months ending in July." DB says "from 1960 to present the correlation between real GDP and the LEI is 75%."

12:00
CANADA: Nov BOC core CPI 0/0% m/m, +1.4% y/y
12:00
CANADA: Nov CPI +0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y
11:31
GBP/USD probes support

Tech traders highlight the $1.5483 level on GBP/USD, adding that it corresponds to the 76.4% retrace of the mover up from $1.5454 to $1.5577 and seen key for next direction. The rate did ease to $1.5478 Monday, but managed to recover back, edging on to $1.5567 earlier in Europe this morning. Rate found support this morning at $1.5482. Stops noted on a break of $1.5470, which if triggered seen opening a deeper move toward $1.5450 as well as 'confirming' downtrend in place.

11:11
EU focus: Pound erases gains after British government's borrowing exceeds forecasts

The pound erased its gains against the dollar after the nation’s November budget deficit swelled to a record, exceeding economists’ forecasts.
Net borrowing was 22.8 billion pounds ($35.4 billion), compared with 16.7 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said today. The median of forecasts was 16.8 billion pounds. Spending rose the most since February. The shortfall excluding government support for banks was 23.3 billion pounds.
The Swiss currency gained as Moody’s placed Portugal’s A1 long-term rating and Prime-1 short-term rating on review, reinforcing concerns that some European nations will struggle to raise funds amid a slew of credit-rating and outlook changes.
“European currencies which are backed up by strong economic fundamentals, like the Swiss franc, have strengthened,” said Henrik Gullberg, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
Swiss exports declined in November as a stronger franc made goods less competitive abroad and the economic recovery lost some momentum.
Exports, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 3.4% from October, when they rose a revised 2.3%. Imports fell 3.3% from October, when they increased a revised 1.7%. The trade surplus was 1.93 billion Swiss francs, down from 2.05 billion francs.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged two weeks ago because policy was judged to be “mildly restrictive” given signs of consumer caution and few inflation pressures, minutes of its Dec. 7 meeting showed.
Household “restraint, if it continued, would provide some scope for investment to rise without causing aggregate demand to grow too quickly and inflationary pressures to build,” according to the minutes. After the November rate rise and an increase in the nation’s currency, “monetary policy was judged to be mildly restrictive.”
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens left the overnight cash rate target at 4.75% after seven increases since October 2009. Higher borrowing costs helped slow third-quarter growth and savings have risen, even as energy and mining investments keep unemployment at about half the near-10 percent U.S. jobless rate.

11:06
EUR/CHF under pressure

EUR/CHF getting further suggestions that the Chf1.2600 holds option barrier interest. Rate currently trades back around Chf1.2638 after posting fresh life lows of Chf1.2615.

10:42
EUR/GBP holds higher

EUR/GBP cleared above resistance at stg0.8485 and extends recovery to stg0.8495. Offers seen placed at stg0.8500 (50% stg0.8554/0.8446).

10:19
GBP/USD holds below $1.5500

GBP/USD breaks below $1.5500 (Asia low $1.5501) as sterling continues to come under pressure following release of disappointing UK borrowing data. Rate extends to $1.5488, jusy shy of earlier reported support between $1.5485/75. Stops noted on a break of $1.5470.

09:58
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3150, audca$1.3250, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y82.50, Y83.00, Y83.20, Y83.50, Y84.60
GBP/USD $1.5750
AUD/USD $0.9775, $0.9800, $0.9855, $1.0000, $1.0050, $1.0080
AUD/CAD C$1.0015

08:44
Asian session: The euro rose

Data:
00:01     UK     Gfk consumer confidence (December)    -21    
03:30     Japan     BoJ meeting announcement    0.00-0.10%    
04:30     Japan     All industry index (October)    -0.2%   

The euro rose from near a two-week low against the dollar and yen after Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said his nation had taken “concrete action” to help the European Union with its debt problems.
The single currency strengthened on speculation investments by China, which holds a record $2.65 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, will ease Europe’s sovereign fiscal crisis and boost the allure of assets in the region.
The yen reached a one-week high versus the dollar on speculation Japanese exporters bought the currency to bring home funds before the end of the year.
Japan’s large manufacturers expect the yen to trade at an average of 86.47 per dollar in the year through March, the highest since the Bank of Japan’s Tankan business-confidence survey included the yen-forecast question in 1996, compared with the 89.66 predicted in September, the survey showed Dec. 15.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3200.

GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,5560.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,55-Y83,80.


UK data at 0930GMT Tuesday is expected to see the PSNB come in at -stg16.8 billion with PSNCR at stg13.2 billion.

08:36
Forex: Monday's review

The euro weakened on speculation some European nations will struggle to raise funds amid the region’s debt crisis after rating companies downgraded the creditworthiness of Ireland and considered additional cuts.
The single currency depreciated, falling to two-week lows against the dollar and the yen as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded two Dublin-based lenders to junk status.
The Swiss franc climbed to a euro-era record, appreciating 1.1% to 1.2641. Against the dollar it appreciated 0.3% to 0.9655.
The Swiss National Bank last week held the three-month Libor target rate at 0.25% in an attempt to keep a lid on the currency. The franc’s strength against the euro has threatened the country’s export-led recovery.
The dollar was boosted against the euro by the demand for safety and optimism the world’s largest economy is improving.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3200.

GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,5560.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,55-Y83,80.


UK data at 0930GMT Tuesday is expected to see the PSNB come in at -stg16.8 billion with PSNCR at stg13.2 billion.

07:35
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks fell, with benchmark indexes slumping by the most this month, as the euro weakened to near a two-week low against the yen on concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread, damping the outlook for export earnings.
Nippon Sheet Glass lost 1.8 percent to 214 yen. Ricoh Co., a maker of office equipment that gets a fifth of its revenue from Europe, declined 1.9 percent to 1,168 yen. Fanuc, a maker of industrial robots that earns almost 20 percent of its revenue in Europe, slipped 1.8 percent to 12,150 yen, the heaviest drag on the Nikkei 225.
Komatsu Ltd., which has China as its fastest-growing market, slumped 1.9 percent on concern that Chinese policy makers will act further to tame inflation.
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., an excavator maker that generates about a quarter of its revenue from China, sank 2.1 percent to 1,937 yen and Kubota Corp., Asia’s largest tractor maker, slid 1.4 percent to 787 yen, both falling the most this month.
Sony Corp., the maker of Bravia televisions, sank 1.2 percent after saying it may fall short of a target for TV sales.
Uny Co., a retailer, slumped 4.2 percent to 778 yen, the biggest decline in the Nikkei 225, after Macquarie Group Ltd. cut its investment recommendation on the company to “underperform” from “neutral.”

European stocks rose, erasing losses that followed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s 2008 bankruptcy, amid speculation that the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest automaker, soared 3.7 percent after saying it expects sales in China to grow as much as 15 percent next year.
Abertis Infraestructuras SA added 1.3 percent as the Sunday Times said CVC Capital Partners Ltd. may bid for the Spanish highway operator.
888 Holdings Plc rallied 18 percent to 57.75 pence, the biggest gain since its initial share sale in 2005. The online gambling company said it’s in the early stages of discussions with Ladbrokes Plc about a possible takeover offer.
Mobistar SA advanced 3.8 percent to 47.42 euros after Belgium’s second-biggest mobile-phone company was upgraded to “buy” at Deutsche Bank AG.
Rhodia SA climbed 7.2 percent to 24.39 euros, the highest price in almost three years. The specialty chemical company is confident it will be able to defend its profit margins in 2011ю
Retail stocks had the only drop out of 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 as the snow disrupted holiday shopping. Inditex SA, the world’s largest clothing retailer, declined 2.7 percent to 56.60 euros. Dixons Retail Plc, the U.K.’s biggest consumer- electronics retailer, retreated 6.2 percent to 22.84 pence.

U.S. stocks seesawed between small gains and losses Monday but remained in a narrow range at the start of a holiday-shortened week, as investors began to shift their focus to 2011.
The three major indexes continue to hover near their highest levels since 2008, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising to fresh highs during Monday's session. The Dow touched a two-year high last week, as President Obama signed a tax-cut plan into law. Stocks have been trending higher since the compromise deal was announced.
Companies: E-commerce company eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) said it has reached a deal to purchase brands4friends.com -- Germany's largest online shopping site -- for about $200 million. "The move is designed to strengthen eBay's position as a leading online fashion destination in Europe," the company said in a written statement. Shares of eBay were down 0.6%.
Consumer food and beverage company Sara Lee Corp. (SLE, Fortune 500) is in talks to sell itself to a Brazilian meat-processing giant JBS SA, according to reports. The companies are sparring over price, however, stalling the deal. Shares of Sara Lee were up 2.4%
AT&T (T) shares slippped 0.1% after the company said it will pay $1.93 billion for spectrum licenses from Qualcomm (QCOM), whose shares rose 0.2%. AT&T said the move will bolster its 4G service.
Adobe Systems (ADBE) will issue its quarterly results after the closing bell. Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of 52 cents. The stock was up 1.4%




07:02
Germany: Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jan) 5,4
06:56
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 low, Dec 17-20 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9660 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9626
Support 1: Chf0.9620 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9550 (around of November and Dec 14 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9460 (low of October)

Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support Chf0,9620. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9550. The nearest resistance Chf0,9660. Above is located Chf0.9720.

06:39
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5760 (50,0% FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5450)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5650 (Dec 17 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5580 (Dec 20 high)
Current price: $1.5542
Support 1 : $1.5500 (session low)
Support 3 : $1.5450 (Dec 17 low)
Support 3 : $1.5300 (low of September)


Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - $1,5580. Above growth is possible to $1,5650. The nearest support - $1,5500. Below decrease is possible to $1.5450.

06:24
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 2: $ 1.3360 (Dec 17 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3260 (resistance line from Dec 14)

Resistance 1: $ 1.3195 (session high)
Current price: $1.3172
Support 1 : $1.3090 (Dec 20 low)
Support 2 : $1.3060 (Dec 2 low)
Support 3 : $1.2970 (low of December and November)

Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest support - $1,3090. Below decrease is possible to $1.3060. The nearest resistance - $1,3195. Above growth is possible to $1,3260.

06:12
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Dec'21'2010:

00:01     UK     Gfk consumer confidence (December)         -22    -21
03:30     Japan     BoJ meeting announcement         0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%
04:30     Japan     All industry index (October)         -0.2%    -0.8%
07:00     Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jan)         5.7    5.5
09:30     UK     PSNCR (November), bln         -    2.4
09:30     UK     PSNB (November), bln         17.0    10.3
12:00     Canada     CPI (November)         0.3%    0.4%
12:00     Canada     CPI (November) Y/Y         2.3%    2.4%
12:00     Canada     CPI core (November)         0.2%    0.4%
12:00     Canada     CPI core (November) Y/Y         1.6%    1.8%
13:30     Canada     Retail sales (October)         0.5%    0.6%
13:30     Canada     Retail sales excluding auto (October)         -    0.4%
13:55     USA     Redbook (18.12)              
23:50     Japan     Trade balance (November) unadjusted, trln         0.482    0.822

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