CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 21-07-2014

European stocks fell, after posting a weekly gain, as the U.S. and Europe threatened tougher sanctions on Russia over its suspected role in the shooting down of flight MH17 in Ukrainian airspace.

"The conflict in Gaza, the Ukraine crisis -- these are the main topics," Soeren Steinert, who helps manage about $24 billion as associate director for equities trading at Quoniam Asset Management GmbH in Frankfurt, said in a phone interview. "I can't see any panic selling. It is only just that people are not willing to buy. There is no conviction that the market should be falling further."

National benchmark indexes fell in 14 of 18 western European markets. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3 percent. France's CAC 40 lost 0.7 percent. Germany's DAX declined 1.1 percent to the lowest level since May 9.

In the Middle East, diplomatic efforts to end two weeks of Gaza Strip fighting intensified after battles killed dozens of Palestinians and 13 Israeli soldiers in the conflict's bloodiest single day.

Commerzbank fell 1.9 percent to 10.74 euros. Germany's markets regulator BaFin found high operational risks and problems in the lender's internal accounting system in 2013, Capital magazine reported, citing an unreleased BaFin report. The review didn't find any errors in Commerzbank's reporting, the magazine said.

Julius Baer jumped 8.3 percent to 39.60 Swiss francs. The wealth manager founded in 1890 said first-half net income climbed to 178.3 million francs ($198 million) from 114 million francs a year earlier. Assets under management rose by 20 billion francs to 274 billion francs.

Tesco Plc added 1.3 percent to 288.65 pence after saying Unilever's Dave Lewis will replace Philip Clarke as chief executive officer on Oct. 1. The retailer also said first-half sales and trading profit are below expectations.

Sky Deutschland AG climbed 4.5 percent to 6.70 euros, the biggest gain since May 12. Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox Inc. may reach an agreement to sell its 57 percent stake in the company to British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc in the next two weeks, two people familiar with the matter said. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that BSkyB is close to a deal to buy the European assets from Fox. BSkyB fell 1.5 percent to 904 pence today.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose to the highest in more than two weeks as strong refinery demand reduced U.S. inventories.

Prices gained for a third time in four days. U.S. refineries operated at the highest rate in nine years in the week ended July 11, according to the Energy Information Administration. Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, dropped to a six-year low as oil flowed to the Gulf Coast where prices were higher. Brent was steady as the U.S. and Europe threatened further sanctions against Russia.

"The supply side really should keep us higher," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. "Cushing is the delivery point so the drawdown there is giving the market a boost. The drop at Cushing is definitely favoring WTI over Brent."

WTI for August delivery, which expires tomorrow, gained 74 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $103.85 a barrel at 9:54 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more-active September future was up 30 cents at $102.25. The volume of all futures was about 17 percent above the 100-day average.

Brent for September settlement gained 2 cents to $107.26 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures traded was about 19 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. WTI was at a discount of $5.06 to Brent on the ICE, down from $5.29 on July 18.

Gold prices are rising moderately after fell on Friday as investors reduced the scope of the safe haven in his possession, re-evaluating the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe.

On Thursday, gold prices showed the sharpest increase in nearly a month when Malaysian airliner crashed near the Russian-Ukrainian border. This crash occurred amid escalating violence in Ukraine, raised questions about Russia's role in the conflict. Gold is considered by some investors protection against geopolitical risks.

Rising gold prices was a "reflex reaction" to the news, said Frank McGhee, Broker Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. "Theoretically, such a development could lead to a wider confrontation between the U.S. and Russia," - he said.

However, on Friday, President Barack Obama signaled that the U.S. limited to diplomatic efforts on the Ukrainian question, but will coordinate their efforts with European allies to put pressure on Russia.

"Yes, gold is rising against the backdrop of geopolitical problems, but this growth is very often ends up pretty quickly," - says Dennis Gartman, investor and publisher of the Gartman Letter.

Traders in the gold market is also closely watching the Middle East, after Israel on Thursday evening started a ground operation in Gaza. Israel sent thousands of troops with tanks and armored vehicles to the Palestinian territory after a ten-air bombing.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1319.00 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3500

USD/JPY Y100.95, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y101.75-80, Y102.00

GBP/USD $1.7075, $1.7175

EUR/GBP Stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9395, $0.9400

USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800

U.S. stock futures fell as concern over geopolitical tensions kept investors on the sidelines before major companies report earnings.

Global markets:

Hang Seng 23,387.14 -67.65 -0.29%

Shanghai Composite 2,054.48 -4.59 -0.22%

FTSE 6,724.88 -24.57 -0.36%

CAC 4,310.64 -24.67 -0.57%

DAX 9,622.24 -97.78 -1.01%

Crude oil $103.39 (+0.25%)

Gold $1316.40 (+0.56%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities

Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy at Belus Capital Advisors

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital; target raised to $70 from $55

Downgrades:

Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale

Other:

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $115 from $100 at UBS

Cisco Systems (CSCO) target raised to $28 from $24 at RBC Capital Mkts

Data:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast / actual value)

00:00 Japan official holiday

3:00 New Zealand Spending on credit cards, y / y +7.5% +7.0 June%

6:00 Germany Producer Price Index m / m -0.2% June 0.1% 0.0%

6:00 Germany Producer Price Index y / y in June -0.8% -0.7%

10:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report July

Rate of the euro retreated from a session high against the dollar, while returning below the opening level. Investors remained cautious after last weekend's Malaysian airliner was shot down in eastern Ukraine, while the conflict in Gaza is also putting pressure on market sentiment. Pressure also continue to provide comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, who was seen as the latest sign that the bank is open to further monetary easing measures to prevent the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

Little influenced by the current German data which showed that in a monthly basis, prices of German manufacturers remained unchanged in June, which followed a decline of 0.2 percent in May. Many experts expect that this figure will grow by 0.1 percent. It was also reported that, compared with the same period of the previous year the producer price index fell by 0.7 per cent compared, a little slow pace compared to May, when it was seen falling 0.8 percent. We add that the last change coincided with the average forecast. Also note that the June decline is the smallest since December. Excluding energy prices, producer prices in June fell 0.1 percent year on year, but remained unchanged in monthly terms.

Pound fell against the dollar, falling under the influence of a weak report on Britain. It is learned that in July the price of property in the UK fell for the second month in a row, with increased number of homes for sale, the report said Rightmove Plc. Since June, the price of homes in the UK capital fell by 0.4 percent to an average of 587,174 pounds ($ 1 million), said the real estate operator. In England and Wales, prices fell by 0.8 per cent, this is the first decline since December. The report also said that there are signs of slowdown in the UK property market. The main areas of the capital, where there was the largest decline, steel Islington, Wandsworth and Kingston, each prices fell by 3.8 percent for the month. At the national level of the 10 regions tracked by Rightmove, in seven there was a reduction. In the East Midlands and the North of real estate prices dropped by 1.9 percent

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3548, but then fell to $ 1.3511

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7068

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.18, but then rose to Y101.35

At 23:25 GMT Australia will deliver a speech aide RBA Guy Debell.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550

Bids $1.3500, $1.3490, $1.3475

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115

Bids $1.7040/35, $1.7005/00, $1.6950

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9450, $0.9420

Bids $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.30

Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.50

Bids Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35

Bids stg0.7884-80, stg0.7850, stg0.7800

European stocks were down after the fixation of the weekly rate, due to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. U.S. index futures fell, while Asian stocks remained almost unchanged.

Market participants assess the degree of geopolitical tensions after the crash Malaysia Airlines in Ukraine and are waiting for new quarterly results in the U.S. and Europe.

"The geopolitical events in the fundamentals, which are usually determined by the dynamics of financial assets, should be kept in long-term context, the actions of central banks further soften it," - said the Financial Times, Ian Williams of the company Peel Hunt. According to him, investors' attention should shift the financial results of companies. While reporting season surpasses market expectations: 68% of companies have already reported S & P earnings above expectations.

Little influenced by the German data, which showed that in a monthly basis, prices of German manufacturers remained unchanged in June, which followed a decline of 0.2 percent in May. Many experts expect that this figure will grow by 0.1 percent. It was also reported that, compared with the same period of the previous year the producer price index fell by 0.7 per cent compared, a little slow pace compared to May, when it was seen falling 0.8 percent. We add that the last change coincided with the average forecast. Also note that the June decline is the smallest since December. Excluding energy prices, producer prices in June fell 0.1 percent year on year, but remained unchanged in monthly terms.

Airbus Group shares fell 0.80% despite the claims that the company this week could sell 100 or more copies of a fresh model A330neo aircraft at Farnborough International Airshow.

Philips shares rose 0.10% after the electronics maker reported a decline in profits in the second quarter, but said he expects to see an improvement in the second half of this year.

The market value of British retailer Tesco Plc rose by 2.6%. The company announced the appointment of new CEO Dave Lewis, who had previously worked in Unilever. D.Lyuis take up his duties on October 1.

The price of the Julius Baer Group Ltd. increased by maximum of 5.9% for the year, as the bank announced an increase in profits in the first half of 2014 by 56% to 178.3 million Swiss francs. Assets under management increased by Julius Baer in January-June by 20 billion to 274 billion francs.

Commerzbank shares fell 1.8 percent after the market regulator BaFin found high operational risks and challenges in the internal accounting system in 2013.

At the current moment

FTSE 100 6,735.91 -13.54 -0.20%

CAC 40 4,331.46 -3.85 -0.09%

DAX 9,670.03 -49.99 -0.51%

EUR/USD $1.3500

USD/JPY Y100.95, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y101.75-80, Y102.00

GBP/USD $1.7075, $1.7175

EUR/GBP Stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9395, $0.9400

USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800

Asian stocks rose following a global rebound after the downing of a passenger jet in Ukraine and Israel's invasion of Gaza roiled markets. Technology and financial shares led the advance.

S&P/ASX 200 5,539.9 +8.24 +0.15%

TOPIX closed

SHANGHAI COMP 2,054.57 -4.50 -0.22%

HANG SENG 23,449.7 -5.09 -0.02%

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., an assembler of Apple Inc.'s iPhones, climbed 2.3 percent in Taipei, leading technology firms to the largest gain on the regional gauge.

Woori Investment & Securities Co. rose 4.9 percent in Seoul for a eighth day of gains.

China Coal Energy Co., the nation's second-largest producer, sank 1.2 percent in Hong Kong after saying it expects profit will drop.

A gauge of the U.S. dollar was 0.2 percent from a four-week high before data tomorrow economists say will show consumer-price inflation held at the fastest since October 2012, boosting the case for higher interest rates. U.S. consumer prices climbed at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in June, matching May's figure that was the most since October 2012, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Labor Department report. The inflation rate has increased from 1.1 percent in February.

The U.S. currency has risen versus all except one of its Group-of-10 peers this month as traders boosted bets the Federal Reserve will increase its benchmark from near zero by the middle of 2015.

The New Zealand dollar rose for a second day on speculation the central bank will raise borrowing costs this week. Central bank Governor Graeme Wheeler will raise the cash rate for a fourth time this year, to 3.5 percent, according to all except one of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Officials will raise rates by 67 basis points during the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index. That compares with a projected increase of as much as 135 basis points in March.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around the level of $1.3530

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.7080-90

USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y101.25

With EU finance ministers meeting tomorrow in Brussels to discuss more stringent sanctions against Russia, one mitigating factor is the foreign debt that Russia has accumulated, with the latest numbers totalling around USD $730bn, with a majority borrowed from European banks. The European banking sector's troubles were further highlighted in recent weeks by Portugal's Espirito Santo and its bad debt issues.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3629 (3163)

$1.3599 (856)

$1.3559 (97)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3541

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3499 (4169)

$1.3479 (2636)

$1.3452 (7706)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26011 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3902);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34645 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7706);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.34 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 18

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7401 (1017)

$1.7301 (1308)

$1.7203 (1568)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7096

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6996 (2751)

$1.6898 (2071)

$1.6799 (1398)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16464 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2415);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23311 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2751);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.42 versus 1.44 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 102.88 -0.24%

Gold 1,309.40 -0.57%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,215.71 -154.55 -1.01 %

Hang Seng 23,454.79 -66.08 -0.28 %

Shanghai Composite 2,059.07 +3.48 +0.17 %

FTSE 100 6,749.45 +11.13 +0.17 %

CAC 40 4,335.31 +19.19 +0.44 %

Xetra DAX 9,720.02 -33.86 -0.35 %

S&P 500 1,978.22 +20.10 +1.03 %

NASDAQ 4,432.15+68.70 +1.57 %

Dow Jones 17,100.18 +123.37 +0.73 %

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3523 -0,02%

GBP/USD $1,7084 -0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,8985 +0,13%

USD/JPY Y101,34 +0,19%

EUR/JPY Y137,07 +0,19%

GBP/JPY Y173,11 +0,09%

AUD/USD $0,9391 +0,48%

NZD/USD $0,8683 +0,23%

USD/CAD C$1,0731 -0,26%