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21.03.2011
19:02
EUR/USD rises

EUR/USD продолжает укреплять свои позиции после поглощения стопов в зоне $1.4220/30. Курс показал максимумы на $1.4241. В области $1.4250 расположены ордера на продажу, далее - на $1.4275. Важный уровень сопротивления представлен на $1.4282 (максимумы начала ноября).

18:45
Dow +187.09 at 12045.61, Nasdaq +50.37 at 2694.04, S&P +20.21 at 1299.41


Although the S&P 500 recently backed off of the 1300 line, it hasn't exactly been knocked down. Instead, the benchmark index continues to sport a 1.5% gain. The Dow has displayed similar strength, which has blue chips on pace for their best collective three-day gain since September.
General Electric (GE 19.71, +0.46) has been one of today's best performing blue chips.
In contrast, Bank of America (BAC 13.95, -0.09) has been one of the worst performing Dow components of this session.
Kraft (KFT 30.84, -0.15) is also mired in the red, although it has worked its way up from its morning low, which was set in response to news of a downgrade by analysts at JPMorgan.

18:26
GBP/USD refreshes highs

GBP/USD holds $1.6300 area after seeing highs earlier around $1.6310. Focus now on $1.6344 area of recent highs and the decent supply clustered from there to $1.6350.

17:58
OIL:

NYMEX April light sweet crude oil futures (WTI) holds up $0.96 at $103.03 per barrel. Friday, WTI topped out at $103.66 and Brent at $117.29. WTI posted a new nearly 30-month high of $106.95 March 7.

17:14
US focus: Yen declines as Japan nuclear plant risk eases

The yen weakened for a second day as Japan made progress in cooling nuclear reactors at a crippled plant, increasing appetite for higher-yielding assets.
The yen extended losses after sliding the most against the dollar in six months on March 18, when the Group of Seven nations intervened to bring the currency down from a postwar high.
The yen surged to a post-World War II high of 76.25 versus the dollar on March 17 after a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami struck Japan on March 11, damaging cooling systems at a nuclear-power plant north of Tokyo. The currency’s gain came amid speculation investors were repatriating assets to fund an estimated 10 trillion yen ($123.6 billion) for reconstruction.
Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan said today he sees “light at the end of the tunnel” for Japan’s crisis and that progress is being made in restoring power to reactors at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant.
The G-7, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Canada and Italy, sold yen on March 18 after finance ministers spoke on a conference call, according to Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi. The G-7 statement promised to “provide any cooperation” with Japan.
“Today there is a bit of relief that the situation in Japan is not deteriorating,” which is damping demand for the Swiss franc, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen.

Euro-area finance ministers plan to meet in Brussels to further develop a package of measures on the region’s debt crisis and economic governance. European Union leaders will hold a summit March 24-25 to discuss the measures.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed for a second day as higher oil prices increased demand for currencies linked to commodities. Crude oil futures rose as much as 2.3% in New York.

16:23
EUR/USD goes higher

EUR/USD rises back to the $1.4200 level just ahead of the London close, on approach to the $1.4204 high from earlier. Some traders warning of stop risk atop $1.4205 now, consistent with earlier talk of stops to $1.4220.

15:38
ECB DRAGHI: Must remain vigilant to assure price stability

 

  • ECB remains prepared to act in firm, timely manner
  • Closely following Japan events
  • ECB to ensure that inflation risks do not materialize
  • Italy economic problems not due to monetary conditions
  • Financial conditions of italian firms
15:37
ECB DRAGHI: Must remain vigilant to assure price stability
  • ECB remains prepared to act in firm, timely manner
  • Closely following Japan events
  • ECB to ensure that inflation risks do not materialize
  • Italy economic problems not due to monetary conditions
  • Financial conditions of italian firms
15:14
EUR/USD holds tight

EUR/USD continues to chop around in the zone below $1.4200 after sales capper further rise. rate currently holds around $1.4185. Earlier chatter of semi-official sales into the high also acting as a deterrent.

15:00
ECB TRICHET: Looking very, very carefully at Japan disaster impact
15:00
ECB TRICHET: FX intervention was best way to deal with Japan
14:58
GBP/USD holds higher

GBP/USD triggered stops on the break above $1.6260 and printed highs on $1.6295. Rate currently holds around $1.6276. Next resistance/offers seen into $1.6300. A break of $1.6300 to open a move back toward recent highs at $1.6344, with strong offers seen in place between $1.6340/50.

14:01
US: Feb exist home sales +2.7% to 5.36M (Dec revised down to 5.22M)
14:00
Treasury announces sales of Mortgage Backed Securities

The US Dollar has jumped higher across the board, coming off lows against Euro and Pound after the Treasury Department announced its plan to sell its portfolio of Mortgage backed securities purchased during the crisis.
The Treasury Department announced on Monday its plan to sell its portfolio of $142 billion Mortgage Backed Securities, selling up to $ 10 million MBS per month, according to sources by the commerce Department.

13:57
GBP/USD got support at $1.6250

Meeting support again on approach to $1.6255/45, as rate pulls back from extended highs of $1.6295. Euro-sterling holding heavy, able to make a brief show under stg0.8700, touched stg0.8698 currently around stg0.8702 seen providing some buoyancy. Below $1.6245 to allow for a retest on support at $1.6230. Resistance remains at $1.6295/00.

13:30
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Monday, as investors felt encouraged by progress in Japan's nuclear crisis and AT&T's $39 billion deal to acquire T-Mobile USA.


Over the weekend, Japanese engineers made progress in cooling nuclear reactors that had overheated following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck the country on March 11.
Meanwhile, turmoil in North Africa heated up over the weekend. The United States and its allies launched an airstrike on Libyan military targets, in an effort to subdue forces of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.
Investors also welcomed an announcement from AT&T (T) on Sunday, that it will acquire T-Mobile USA from telecommunications company Deutsche Telekom for an estimated $39 billion in cash and stock.
The new entity -- if approved by regulators -- would be the biggest in the United States, combining AT&T's 95 million customers with T-Mobile's 34 million users for a total of 130 million subscribers.
AT&T shares were up 3% in pre-market trading. Meanwhile, shares of rival Sprint Nextel (S) fell 12% in premarket. And Verizon's (VZ) stock edged up about 2%.
Economy: The housing sector will be in focus Monday when the National Association of Homebuilders reports on February existing home sales.
Economists expect sales to come in at an annual rate of 5.05 million in the month, down from 5.36 million the month before, according to consensus estimates.
Companies: Tiffany and Co. (TIF) shares rose 5.6% in pre-market trading, after the luxury retailer beat analysts' forecasts with earnings of $1.41 per share in its latest quarter.
Citigroup (C) shares rose 3.3% after the bank announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split and said it plans to reinstate its quarterly dividend.
World markets:

Gold futures for April delivery rose $17, or 1.2%, to $1,433.10 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.33% from 3.26% late Friday.

13:11
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4175/85, $1.4200, $1.4230/35, $1.4250, $1.4280/85, $1.4300, $1.4330/35
Bids: $1.4150/45, $1.4130, $1.4100, $1.4085/80, $1.4055/50

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.75/80, Y82.00, Y83.00
Bids: Y80.60, Y80.50, Y80.25, Y80.15/10

12:47
European session:

The yen weakened for a second day against all of its major counterparts on speculation Group of Seven nations will keep selling the currency to curb its appreciation and help support Japan’s economy.
The euro depreciated against the dollar as the region’s finance ministers meet to hammer out details of a debt-crisis solution.
The yen extended losses after sliding the most against the dollar in six months on March 18, when the G-7 intervened to bring the currency down from a postwar high and assist Japan’s recovery from its biggest-ever earthquake. “People are not really willing to take on the G-7 for now,” said Geoffrey Yu, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS AG. “They know the G-7 will intervene again.”
An exchange rate of “80 per dollar is probably the line in the sand that the Bank of Japan would want to defend,” Yu said.
Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. say the yen’s gains will reverse as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa injects cash into the financial system just as his peers prepare to tighten monetary policy.
Switzerland’s franc weakened as Japan made progress controlling a damaged nuclear reactor, sapping demand for the currency as a haven.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.4145-$1.4185 range.

GBP/USD: pierced the upper bound of the $1.6200-$1.6250 range before posted session high $1.6290.
USD/JPY: fluctuated around Y81.00.


US data starts at 1400GMT. The pace of existing home sales is expected to slow to a 5.15 million annual rate in January after rising 2.7% in the previous month.

12:00
BUNDESBANK: Warns against keeping unconventional measures too long
  • Central banks should trim balance sheets as financial markets improve;
  • Financial stability mandate would risk overloading monetary policy.
11:57
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4070, $1.4100, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.25, Y81.50, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y115.00
GBP/USD $1.6215
AUD/USD $1.0000, $0.9900
USD/CAD C$0.9875

11:20
European markets keep positive mood

European markets keep positive mood

European shares gained on Monday after investor confidence rose on signs the situation at Japan's nuclear plant was improving, with telecoms lifted by Deutsche Telekom's (DTEGn.DE) sale of T-Mobile USA to AT&T.

10:49
ECB MERSCH: WE ARE VERY FAR FROM DEFLATION RIGHT NOW
10:08
European stocks

European stocks rallied as Japan’s atomic crisis eased.
Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) jumped 14 percent after AT&T Inc. agreed to buy T-Mobile USA from the German phone company for about $39 billion.
Daimler AG (DAI) rose 2.1 percent after analysts said it’s “time to buy” the carmaker’s shares.
At the moment:
FTSE +61 +1.07% 5,779
CAC +69 +1.81% 3,879
DAX +139 +2.08% 6,803

09:54
Asian session: The yen weakened

The yen weakened for a second day against all its major counterparts on speculation the Group of Seven nations will keep selling the currency to curb its appreciation and help support Japan’s economy.
The yen extended losses after sliding the most against the dollar in six months on March 18 when G-7 members intervened to bring Japan’s currency down from a postwar high and assist the nation’s recovery from its biggest ever earthquake. 
The Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened as Asian stocks rose and Japan made progress in bringing a damaged nuclear power plant under control, giving investors more confidence to buy higher-yielding assets.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed for a second day versus the yen as higher oil prices increased demand for currencies linked to commodities.
Losses in the dollar were tempered after the U.S., U.K. and France launched cruise missiles and airstrikes at targets in Libya and as persisting unrest in the region renewed concerns the turmoil will spread in the Middle East.
EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4150-$ 1,4180.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6200-$ 1,6250.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained in the field of Y81,00.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index, while at 1400GMT, the pace of existing home sales is expected to slow to a 5.15 million annual rate in January after rising 2.7% in the previous month. US data wraps up at 1430GMT with the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.

09:21
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4070, $1.4100, $1.4200 
USD/JPY Y80.50, Y81.25, Y81.50, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y115.00
GBP/USD $1.6215
AUD/USD $1.0000, $0.9900
USD/CAD C$0.9875

08:54
Stocks: Weekly review

Asian stocks fell to their worst weekly losses in 10 months but traumatic and volatile days for markets ended on a more upbeat note after some progress in containing Japan’s nuclear crisis and intervention to weaken the yen.
Japanese stocks had their worst trading week since October 2008. They fell 10.2 per cent, wiping $350bn off the value of Tokyo equities and entering bear market territory on Tuesday.
But the Nikkei 225 Average rallied 2.7 per cent to 9,2006.75 on Friday as the Group of Seven leading industrial nations acted together to weaken the yen.
The drop marked its biggest weekly slide since the 2008 global financial crisis. Japanese stocks suffered their worst two-day slide on Monday and Tuesday since the 1987 global stock market crash. That followed a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and devastating tsunami on Friday that killed thousands and crippled the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex about 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.
Tokyo Electric Power surged 19 percent to 948 yen, paring its weekly loss to 55 percent.
Japan’s oil explorers had the largest gains on Friday as investors looked to sectors best-placed to take advantage of the nuclear power woes.

European stocks tumbled by the most in eight months this week after Japan’s March 11 earthquake damaged cooling systems at an atomic power plant, causing the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.
Swiss Reinsurance Co. and Munich Re led insurers lower for a second week amid concern the industry may face claims of as much as 2.8 trillion yen ($35 billion) from the Asian nation’s biggest quake on record. E.ON AG and RWE AG sank more than 9 percent after the crisis prompted Germany to reconsider extending the life of its nuclear plants. Areva SA, the world’s largest builder of atomic reactors, slid the most since 2001.
Over the week, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 3 percent, a fourth week of declines, the longest losing streak in more than a year.

Stocks pared their weekly losses after Group of Seven nations jointly intervened in the foreign-exchange market today for the first time in more than a decade after the yen soared to a post-World War II high against the dollar, threatening Japan’s recovery. The country’s central bank added 38 trillion yen to the financial system this week as policy makers sought to support the world’s third-largest economy.
Financial stocks climbed higher after the Federal Reserve cleared the way for banks to raise their dividends, while in the wider markets a turbulent week on Wall Street ended on a high note due to easing geopolitical tensions.
JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo were among those to raise their dividend following a decision by the Fed to relax the rules on banks returning cash to their shareholders.
US equities continued to rebound from the heavy losses seen earlier in the week, lifted by news that Libya had announced an “immediate ceasefire” in its offensive against rebels.
Industrial and commodity stocks saw the strongest gains after financials, helped by the easing geo-political tensions.

08:26
Forex: Weekly review

The yen declined the most in more than two years against the dollar as the Group of Seven nations jointly intervened in foreign-exchange markets for the first time in more than a decade.
Japan’s currency slumped against all its major counterparts as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada joined the Bank of Japan and European central banks in an effort to sell the yen. G-7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs said after a conference call yesterday to discuss the impact of the March 11 earthquake that they will “provide any needed cooperation.”
The Japanese currency weakened as the Fed and BOC’s actions followed those of the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of France, Germany’s Bundesbank and the Italian central bank. Japan’s authorities probably sold less than 2 trillion yen ($25 billion) in today’s foreign- exchange market intervention, a Japanese government official told reporters in Tokyo.
The yen’s decline against the dollar will be temporary unless it’s supported by higher U.S. interest rates, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The move shouldn’t be a “trend- changer,” said John Normand, the London-based head of currency strategy at JPMorgan.
The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The Fed will boost the rate by 25 basis points in the last three months of the year, according to the median forecasts.
The yen’s weakness may be short-lived as Japan would need as much as $500 billion to intervene in markets just to match its previous efforts to curb the currency’s strength, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
An intervention of that magnitude will add about 10 percent of gross domestic product to Japan’s record debt level.
Dollar-yen has edged back under Y81.00, but otherwise has remained buoyant on the day in the wake of the coordinated intervention seen earlier (and assumed to be ongoing). So far, the Y81.20 area has acted as a pivot with stops kicking on a break above that level and stops kicking in as that level later gave way. The pair is reluctant for now to break below Y80.90/00, a prior low from Dec 31/Jan 3. How dollar-yen closes will be key for short-term direction. A close above Y82 (better yet, the 55-day at Y82.31) would be viewed as bullish and a sub Y80 close (Y79.90 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud) viewed as bearish. A close in the Y80-Y82 range would be less instructive.
The euro is back in favor despite ongoing concerns about the peripherals and the new eurozone bank stress tests. First, the ECB is expected to raise rates well before the Fed. And with Friday's hefty intervention, the BOJ will likely be buying Treasuries which will keep downward pressure on US yields in the near-term. In addition, with oil prices remaining firm, oil producers who get dollar proceeds have been eager to convert a growing share of these proceeds into euros so as to diversify. Despite known euro negatives, the  market continues to concentrate on the positives. 

07:33
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y82.50 (Mar 14 high) 
Resistance 2:Y82.00 (Mar 15 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.00 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.92
Support 1:Y80.60 (session low)    
Support 2:Y79.80 (Mar 17)    
Support 2:Y78.25 (intraday low of Mar 17)    
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support - Y80,60. Below losses are possible to Y79.80. The nearest resistance - Y81.00. Above growth is possible to Y82.00. 

07:31
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (50,0% FIBO Chf0,9370-Chf0,8920)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9090 (Mar 18 high, 38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9370-Chf0,8920)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9055 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9040
Support 1: Chf0.9020 (support line from Mar 16)
Support 2: Chf0.8920 (Mar 16 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8900 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9055. Above is located level Chf0.9090. The nearest support - Chf0.9020. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8920. 

07:29
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6500 (psychological mark)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6240 (Mar 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6250 (Mar 18 high)
Current price: $1.6213
Support 1 : $1.6200 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6060 (Mar 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.5975 (Mar 11, 15 and 17 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached on Friday. The nearest support $1.6200. Below is possible testings of area $1.6060. The nearest resistance $1.6250. Above growth is possible  to $1.6340. 

07:28
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4320 (resistance  line from Jul 2008)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4280 (Nov 5 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4180 (session high, Mar 18 high)
Current price: $1.4173
Support 1 : $1.4160 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4030 (Mar 7 high)
Support 3 : $1.3860 (support line from Mar, 11th, МА (200) for Н1)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached on Friday. The nearest resistance - $1.4180. Above growth is possible to $1,4280. The nearest support $1,4160. Below losses are possible to $1.4030. 

07:08
Schedule for today, Monday, Mar 21 2011:

00:00 Japan Vernal Equinox Day
 
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.8% 3.1%
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 0.9% 0.3%
02:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) (Feb) 5.3% 5.6%
14:00 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech  
14:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) -4.9% 2.7%
14:00 United States Existing Home Sales (Feb) 5.15M 5.36M

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