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21.02.2011
16:12
GBP/USD holds around $1.6225

Holds around $1.6225. Rate earlier posted lows at $1.6205, supported by reported demand placed between $1.6205/1.6195. Stops noted below $1.6180. Stronger demand seen in place at $1.6150/40. Resistance now seen at $1.6250, a break to open a move back toward $1.6265. Above here and stronger resistance noted from around $1.6280, extending to $1.6300.

15:32
Gold keeps positive mood

Spot peaked at $1403.75 this morning before edging back to $1401, with a rise of almost $14.5 from the overnight opening. Resistance remains at the Jan 4 high of $1417.30, with support towards Friday's low of $1381.85.

14:14
EUR/USD under pressure

Squeezes down to retest support into $1.3660, with rate able to make a show below to $1.3658. Further demand seen in place between $1.3650/45 with stops below. Bids: $1.3630/25, $1.3600, $1.3585/75. Supply eyed at $1.3720.

13:33
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3720, $1.3735/45, $1.3765/70, $1.3800, $1.3825/35
Bids: $1.3660, $1.3650/45, $1.3630/25, $1.3600, $1.3585/75

USD/JPY
Offers: Y83.55, Y83.75/80
Bids: Y83.00, Y82.70/65, Y82.55/50

13:10
ECB ORDONEZ: Lack of confidence in Spain markets unfounded
  • Spain's bank supervision among strongest in Europe;
  • Construction sector only 22% of credit of savings bnks;
  • In Spain ratio of unpaid mortgages is low;
  • Notes latest bank law sets core cap reqs above Basel's;
  • Credit demand already started to increase;
  • Once investmt starts, banks will be solid due reforms;
  • Not in favour of intervention in credit entities;
  • In the end it costs more to the taxpayer;
  • BOS wld intervene to save banks, but not there.
12:59
EU session review: Yen, Dollar strengthen on speculation unrest in Middle East will intensify

Data released:
07:58     France     PMI (February) flash    55.3    55.4    54.9
07:58     France     PMI services (February) flash    60.8    57.9    57.8
08:28     Germany     PMI (February) flash    62.6    60.1    60.5
08:28     Germany     PMI services (February) flash    59.5    60.4    60.3
08:58     EU(17)     PMI (February) flash    59.0    57.1    57.3
08:58     EU(17)     PMI services (February) flash    57.2    56.1    55.9
09:00     Germany     IFO business climate index (February)    111.2    110.5    110.3
    
The yen and the dollar strengthened against most of their major counterparts as concern that unrest in the Middle East will spread boosted demand for safer assets.
Japan’s currency rose from a three-month low against the euro as stocks fell in Europe and Asia. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s son Saif said the country may have a civil war.
The euro dropped after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union suffered an election defeat in the country’s richest state, fuelling concern that European Union attempts to deal with the sovereign debt crisis will be derailed.
Europe’s common currency pared losses after a report showed German business confidence unexpectedly rose to a record in February. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index increased to 111.2 from 110.3 in January. That’s the highest since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
“It’s the better-expected Ifo data today which is pushing the euro versus the franc,” said Ursina Kubli, a currency analyst at Bank Sarasin & Cie. “All in all, the franc is overvalued at the moment.”
New Zealand’s dollar climbed on speculation Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. will raise its forecast for payouts to farmers.
The board of Auckland-based Fonterra, the world’s largest dairy exporter, meets tomorrow after whole milk powder prices climbed to a 31-month high. The dairy exporter raised its forecast payment to farmers by 4.5% on Dec. 10, citing higher international prices.

EUR/USD printed high on $1.3710 after strong data before retreated to lows around $1.3660. Since then rate holds within the range.

GBP/USD fell from $1.6245 to $1.6200, but it failed to break under the figure and remains a bit above $1.6200.

USD/JPY holds between Y83.06/22 range.


There is no major data for today. US markets are closed in observance of President's Day.

12:40
GOLD:

Spot printed high at $1403.75 before edging back to $1401, with a rise of almost $14.5 from the overnight opening. Resistance remains at the Jan 4 high of $1417.30, with support towards Friday's low of $1381.85. Gold trades $1401.60/90.

12:15
GBP/USD holds above figure

GBP/USD declined to lows around $1.6200. Cable bids remain between $1.6205/1.6195, stops placed on a break of $1.6180. Stronger demand noted between $1.6150/40.

11:42
SILVER:

Silver rose sharply this morning and printed high on $33.49 just ahead of $33.50 level. Investors increased their net longs by 15% to 34,300 contracts, the highest level since November 2010. Near term support seen at $31.60/65 and $30.00. Silver currently trades $33.37/39 .


11:24
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD tested bids on $1.3665/60 after rate retreated from EMU PMI/Ifo highs at $1.3708. rate fell to sesison lows around $1.3663. Rate currently trades back around $1.3686. A break of $1.3660 to expose next support at $1.3650/45.

11:03
GOLD TECHS:

Bulls continues to rule th gold proce after it broke above the Jan 27 resistance line. Today gold trades through the daily Bollinger top. Daily studies trend higher, moving close to overbought levels. Resistance seen from the Nov 09 high and initial support seen from the 5-DMA at $1384.40.

10:13
GBP/USD weakens
GBP/USD extends lows to $1.6215. Cable bids now seen placed between $1.6205/1.6195 with stops placed on a break of $1.6180. Stronger demand noted between $1.6150/40.
10:01
EUR/USD below $1.3700

EUR/USD retreats from post EMU PMI and Germany Ifo highs of $1.3708 and currently holds around $1.3666, where demand were mentioned earlier. Bids have now been reported in the area between $1.3650/45.

09:46
AUD/USD retreats

AUD/USD slipping down from the earlier high in Europe of $1.0135 with reports of sales from model accounts. Brief support at $1.0115 given way to a low of $1.0104. Talk of some corporate demand $1.0070/50.

09:29
OIL:

April WTI rally stalled just ahead of $92.40 resistance with a high on the day of $92.32 so far. ICE Brent rose to $104.55, with the premium steady at just over $12 on the US WTI contract for April .

09:13
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3610, $1.3625, $1.3800
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.25, Y83.40, Y83.50, Y84.00
GBP/USD $1.6200
USD/CHF Chf0.9625
AUD/USD $1.0000, $1.0100

09:02
GERMANY: Feb Ifo business sentiment 111.2
09:00
EMU: Jan flash mfg PMI 59.0; Jan flash svcs PMI 57.2
08:31
GERMANY: Jan flash mfg PMI 62.6; Jan flash svcs PMI 59.5
08:29
Asian session: The yen and dollar strengthened

The yen and dollar strengthened versus most major counterparts as concern that unrest in the Middle East will spread boosted demand for safer assets.
Japan’s currency rose from a three-month low against the euro as Asian stocks fell after Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s son warned of a civil war following attacks on anti-government protesters by security forces. 
Saif al-Islam Qaddafi called on protesters to engage in dialogue or face a civil war that risks “hundreds of thousands of dead,” as a widening revolt posed the most serious challenge to his father’s 41 years of rule.
Libyan security forces yesterday attacked anti-government protesters, in Benghazi, the nation’s second largest city. The North African country, holder of the largest crude oil reserves on the continent, has become the focal point of region-wide protests ignited by the ouster of Tunisia’s president last month and energized by the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11. Violence has flared in Yemen, Djibouti and Bahrain.
The yen typically strengthens in times of political, financial and economic turmoil as Japan’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive because it means the nation doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1.3715 then  decreased. 
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around 1.6210.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83.00-Y83.20.
US markets remain closed today for Presidents Day, although the European calendar is fairly busy to make up for it. This morning sees the release of the flash manufacturing/services PMIs for February from the main European states. France releases at 0758GMT and is expected to edge higher to readings of 55.0 and 58.0. At 0828GMT, the German release is expected to see manufacturing edge lower to 60.4 but services improve to 60.8. The main EMU release is due at 0858GMT, where the data is expected to edge higher to readings of 57.4 and 56.0.
The main German IFO business survey for February is due at 0900GMT and is expected to show mild improvements, with the Business Climate measure improving to 110.5, Current Situation to 113.0 and Expectations at 107.9. 

07:50
Stocks: Weekly review

For the week, the Nikkei rose 2.2 percent while the Topix climbed 2.9 percent.
Japan’s Topix index fell for the first time in 10 days on speculation stocks’ gains have outpaced prospects for earnings and concern a rebellion among lawmakers will derail plans to cut corporate tax rates.
Prime Minister Naoto Kan proposed in December lowering the effective corporate tax rate by 5 percentage points this year, and is calling for debate on raising the consumption tax. Sixteen ruling-party lawmakers yesterday vowed to oppose Kan’s budget proposals.
The Topix has gained 8.3 percent this year, the most among major Asia-Pacific indexes. That’s driven the average price of stocks in the gauge to 16.5 times estimated earnings, the highest level since July.
 
European equities closed out the week on the back foot as weak trading on Thursday and Friday tempered the markets’ recent bullishness.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed up 1.1 per cent at 1,187.03 for the week, after hitting its highest since September 2008 on Wednesday and then beginning to stall.
Equities have been rising steadily this year, and the pan-European index has gained 3.8 per cent since the beginning of the month.
But analysts say that investors’ bullishness on equities, following a strong run of macroeconomic data, has driven the market to the point that a slight downturn or correction seems increasingly likely.
Banks gained ground during the week, helped by positive earnings from Barclays in the UK and Société Générale in France, tempered slightly by losses on Friday following an uptick in talk of a potential bail-out for Portugal.
SocGen gained 7.3 per cent to €51.93 during the week. In Germany, Commerzbank gained 6.8 per cent to €6.15.
Shares in Nokia, the Finnish telecoms equipment group, began to stabilise after they plunged last week when investors questioned its proposed tie-up with Microsoft. Nokia shares fell 4.2 per cent to €6.70 over the week, with the bulk of the decline coming on Monday.
German and French carmakers also lost ground this week.
Daimler, which had reported disappointing profit figures on Wednesday, fell 6.9 per cent to €52.63 for the week. In France, Renault slipped 3.5 per cent to €44.99 after DZ Bank on Monday downgraded the group.
 
The S&P 500 was up 1 per cent over the week, led by oil and gas stocks. On Wednesday, the index reached the point where it had doubled from its recession low.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.7 per cent over the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1 per cent over the five-day period.
Energy stocks saw the strongest gains as oil prices edged higher on political uncertainty in north Africa and the Middle East. Murphy Oil was up 1.8 per cent to $73.94 while Chevron added 1 per cent to $98.18. The S&P oil and gas index was up 0.7 per cent.
Material stocks gave up ground, however, on news that China had raised its reserve ratio requirement by 50 basis points in a further move to combat inflation.
Freeport-McMoRan, the world’s biggest copper miner by market capitalisation, was down 1.7 per cent.
Progress Energy reported weak fourth-quarter earnings, weighing on the utility sector, but the wider market edged up to fresh two-and-a-half-year highs, led by oil stocks.
In earnings news, Newpark Resources, the provider of drilling fluids, reported fourth-quarter earnings of 15 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 10 cents, and sending the stock up 6.3 per cent to $6.91.
Elsewhere in the wider energy sector, SunPower, the second-largest supplier of solar cells in the US, forecast 2011 earnings of as much as $2.20 a share, far surpassing the $1.74 cents a share estimated by analysts. The shares were up 7 per cent to $18.65.
Campbell Soup was down 4.9 per cent to $33.22 after the food company reported second-quarter earnings down 7.7 per cent and lowered its 2011 outlook.
Mergers and acquisitions activity dominated the week on Wall Street.
Monday kicked off with a $2.8bn acquisition by General Electric. The biggest US industrial group by market capitalisation said it was buying the well support arm of John Wood Group, the UK oil services company. GE was up 0.3 per cent to $21.43 over the week.
Along with high oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East and north Africa, this helped energy stocks see some of the strongest gains over the week. Among the leaders was Noble, the offshore driller, which was up 10 per cent to $42.87 while Schlumberger added 5.1 per cent to $94.98.
Sanofi-Aventis, the French pharmaceutical group, finally agreed its deal with Genzyme for $20.1bn in the biggest takeover in the pharmaceutical sector since 2009. This led Genzyme up 3.8 per cent over the week to $75.31.

07:24
Forex: Weekly review

Sterling advanced this week, hitting a five-month high on a trade-weighted basis as speculation mounted that the Bank of England would move to raise interest rates in the coming months.
Expectations that the Bank would abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy stance heightened on Tuesday as figures showed UK consumer price inflation rose to 4 per cent in January, double the central bank’s target rate.
This prompted Mervyn King, Bank governor, to write a letter to the UK government to explain the rise. Many investors took the note as an endorsement of the three 25 basis-point interest rate rises that are priced into the market.
Mr King denied he had given the green light to rate rises on Wednesday, saying he never pre-announced a decision on interest rates and investors had got ahead of themselves. But the rally halted only temporarily.
Indeed, the pound continued to climb on Friday as UK retail sales beat forecasts and as speculation mounted that a growing number of members of the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee viewed a strong currency as a weapon that could stem inflationary pressure.
Sterling got an added lift as rumours circulated in the market that the minutes of this month’s MPC meeting, due on Wednesday, would show another member had joined Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale in voting for a rate rise.
Over the week, the pound rose 1.4 per cent to $1.6228 against the dollar, climbed 0.8 per cent to £0.8398 against the euro and was up 1.3 per cent to Y135.23 against the yen.
The dollar fell 0.6 per cent to $1.3628 against the euro over the week.
The Swiss franc advanced, with the currency’s strong performance put down to haven demand amid Middle East unrest.
But others said the Swiss franc’s rise reflected comments from Phillipp Hildebrand, president of the Swiss National Bank, who said Swiss interest rates could not remain low indefinitely given rising inflation. Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank said this eased concerns that the SNB would intervene to stem the strength of the Swiss franc.

07:07
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.00 (Feb 16 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.50 (Feb 18 high)    
Resistance 2:Y83.30 (resistance line from Feb 16)
Current price: Y83.18
Support 1:Y83.00/90 (session low, 38.2 % FIBO Y81.1-Y83.90)
Support 2:Y82.20 (61.8 % FIBO Y81.1-Y83.90, Feb 9 low)
Support 3:Y81.80 (Feb 8 low)
Comments: the pair pair  receded from the reached low. The nearest resistance - Y83.30. Above growth is possible  to Y83.50. The nearest support - Y83,00/90. Below losses are possible  to Y82.20.

07:04
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9565 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9775-Chf0,9480)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9540 (Feb 18 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9470 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9460
Support 1: Chf0.9430 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9390 (Feb 3 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9330 (Feb 2 low)
Comments: the pair bargains within the limits of Chf0.9430-Chf0.9470 (the nearest support/resistance accordingly). Below loss may extend to Chf0.9390. Above is  located Chf0.9540

07:01
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (high of Jan 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6280/00 (Jan 4-5 and Feb 3 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6260 (session high, Feb 18 high)
Current price: $1.6234
Support 1 : $1.6185 (Feb 16-17 high)
Support 2 : $1.6150 (Feb 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.5980 (Feb 14 and 17 low)
 
Comments: the pair bargains above a mark $1.6200. The nearest resistance $1.6260. Above growth is possible  to $1.6280/00. The nearest support $1.6185. Below is possible testings of around $1.6150. 

06:58
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3860 (Feb 2 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3740 (Feb high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3715 (session high, Feb 18 high)
Current price: $1.3667
Support 1 : $1.3660 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3590 (support line from Feb 16)
Support 3 : $1.3540 (Feb 18 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1.3660. Below decrease is  possible to $1.3590. The nearest resistance $1.3715. Above growth is possible  to $1,3740.

06:29
Schedule for today, Monday, Feb 21 2011:

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 3.1% 0.3%
 
00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 0.3% 0.4%
04:30 Japan All industry index (December) - -0.1%
08:28 Germany PMI (February) flash 60.1 60.5
08:28 Germany PMI services (February) flash 60.4 60.3
08:58 EU(17) PMI (February) flash 57.1 57.3
08:58 EU(17) PMI services (February) flash 56.1 55.9
09:00 Germany IFO business climate index (February) 110.5 110.3
USA President's Day

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