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21.01.2011
20:19
US OUTLOOK: BMO economist Sherry Cooper says "There will be no surprises coming from the Fed. Most signs point to a self-sustaining recovery with a slow decline in unemployment.
Indeed, we are likely to see an upside surprise in nonfarm payrolls in the next few months and with any luck at all, consumer confidence will rise as businesses hire back workers." She says the full $600b QE2 should be completed thru June.
19:05
Dow +47.94 at 11875.32, Nasdaq -4.59 at 2700.32, S&P +4.73 at 1285.09
Stocks have managed to move up from session lows, but the overall tone is still mixed as participants keep the Nasdaq in the red and prop up the Dow and S&P 500.
18:16
US OUTLOOK: Barclays opines the FOMC statement "is unlikely to indicate any change to QE2" and says this will calm European markets. They see "value in positioning for curve flattening rather than taking directional risk."
17:56
Dow +56.15 at 11879.01, Nasdaq -0.81 at 2703.57, S&P +5.08 at 1285.29

    Stocks have made an upward turn in recent trade. The move has enabled the Dow and S&P 500 to reclaim gains while the Nasdaq tries to push back into positive territory.

However, airline shares have descended deeper into negative territory. That has left the Amex Airline Index to trade with a 1.1% loss for the session and a 6.5% loss for this week. 

 

17:37
American focus: the euro is strengthening

The euro rose against the dollar, reaching the strongest level in almost two months, as a report showed business confidence in Germany jumped last month, boosting optimism in the region’s economic recovery.

The common currency gained versus most of its major counterparts amid speculation that European policy makers will find a long-term solution to deal with the sovereign-debt crisis. Currencies of commodity-exporting countries gained as stocks and raw materials advanced. Canada’s dollar extended an advance against its U.S. counterpart after retail sales rose more than forecast in November.

“The euro is well supported because it had very strong economic data,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “It takes the focus off the sovereign-debt worries.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.6 percent and the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials rose 0.5 percent.

 



15:15
Dow +59.67 at 11882.47, Nasdaq +11.96 at 2716.25, S&P +7.61 at 1287.87

Stocks have slipped a bit from their opening push higher. The major equity averages are still up nicely, though.
Industrial stocks are in the best shape. The sector is up 1.4% amid leadership from General Electric (GE 19.36, +0.93), which is flirting with multi-month highs following a better-than-expected earnings report.
Internet search giant Google (GOOG 635.00, +8.23) also posted a positive earnings surprise. Its shares have pulled back about six points from their opening gap up, though.

14:25
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were headed for a higher open Friday, as investors continue to mull shakeups in the tech world and the latest earnings from General Electric and Bank of America.


On Thursday, stocks closed modestly lower as technology shares remained weak, and worries about the downside of China's robust economy hung over the market.
Tech shares have gotten hammered this week with the Nasdaq down almost 2% since Monday. But overall, stocks have been on an upward trajectory this year -- with the Dow Jones industrial average now less than 200 points shy of 12,000.
There are no market moving economic reports on tap for Friday.
Companies: General Electric (GE) reported a fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street forecast, sending its stock up 3.4%.
The Fairfield, Conn.-based conglomerate said its fourth-quarter earnings rose 31% to $3.9 billion.
Bank of America reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $1.2 billion, or 16 cents per share. The latest results included a previously announced goodwill impairment charge of $2 billion. Shares of Bank of America (BAC) fell 2% in premarket trading.
After the market closed Thursday, Google (GOOG) reshuffled its management and reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped expectations.
In other corporate news, Warner Music (WMG) said it retained Goldman Sachs (GS) to find a buyer for all or part of the company, according to news reports. Shares of Warner Music rose 20% in premarket trading.
World markets:

Oil for March delivery was flat, slipping 1 cent to $89.58 a barrel.
Gold futures for February delivery fell $4 to $1,345.70 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.42% from 3.45% late Thursday.

14:12
GBP/USD extends recovery
Clears above $1.5970 with follow through buying extending rates recovery to $1.5995. Offers seen placed above $1.6000 and through to Thursday's recovery highs at $1.6010 ($1.6008 76.4% $1.6060/1.5839). Above here and rate can push on toward $1.6040 ahead of $1.6060.
13:58
March WTI Crude slipping again from $90.00 to a low of $89.23 ahead of the 50 day MA at $89.03 which should offer support ahead of $88.38.
13:09
European session:

The euro rose against the dollar, reaching the strongest level in almost two months, as a report showed business confidence in Germany surpassed analysts’ forecasts and rose to a record high in January.
The common currency gained versus 15 of its 16 most-active counterparts amid optimism that European policy makers will find a long-term solution to deal with the sovereign-debt crisis. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the European Union will prevent any potential “liquidity constraint’” in Spain from turning into a region-wide financial crisis.
The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, was 110.3 in January, up from the 109.9 median forecast. That’s the highest since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
Further gains in the euro may be limited as Fitch Ratings warned there’s a continuing risk that euro-region nations will have their credit ratings downgraded.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars dropped as a decline in Asian stocks sapped demand for higher-yielding currencies.

EUR/USD: posted session high at $1.3567 before stabelized within $1.3550/00. Offers: $1.3570/75, $1.3600, $1.3625/35. Bids: $1.3480, $1.3465/60, $1.3440/35, $1.3400/395, $1.3360/50.
GBP/USD: edged back to $1.5950 as sterling recovers its post UK retail sales inspired losses to $1.5870. Offers seen placed at $1.5945/50. Cable support remains at $1.5865 (76.4% $1.5839/1.5945) and while rate can hold above provides some hope for another recovery move.
USD/JPY: eased to Y82.70
12:05
COMPANY NEWS: Bank of America has announced 4Q ajusted EPS of $0.04 vs est, $0.21
11:49
GERMANY: EFSF size sufficient to fulfill duties
EFSF mustn't be financed just by few states.
11:38
GBP/USD back above $1.5900

Edges back above $1.5900 as sterling recovers its post UK retail sales inspired losses to $1.5870. Offers seen placed at $1.5920/25, said to be profit take interest from dip buyers post data. Key resistance remains at $1.5945/50. Cable support remains at $1.5865 (76.4% $1.5839/1.5945) and while rate can hold above provides some hope for another recovery move. A break targets $1.5835, with bids seen from here through to $1.5830. A break here to open a deeper move toward $1.5810/00 ahead of $1.5780.

11:27
FITCH: Portugal could afford 7%+ yields for a few months

After few months 7%+ yields make Portugal debt unstable.

11:20
FITCH: EFSF is a 'strong' AAA, rests on France, Germany rating
10:31
GOLD: Failure to breach $1350 has turned the metal back down to a fresh low on the day at $1342.60 ahead of support $1341.
09:49
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3575, $1.3350, $1.3300
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y83.10, Y83.30, Y84.00
GBP/USD $1.6105
AUD/USD $0.9750, $0.9800, $0.9925, $0.9930, $1.0000, $1.0075
USD/NZD $0.7650

09:35
Asian session: The dollar declined

The dollar declined toward an eight- week low against the euro as a gain in Chinese stocks damped demand for safer assets.
The U.S. currency erased a weekly advance versus the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates next week. The euro headed for a second weekly gain versus the yen before a German report forecast to show business confidence stayed at a record high and ahead of debt sales next week. 
New Zealand’s dollar slumped against all its major counterparts after a government report showed core retail sales unexpectedly declined.
The dollar slumped in earlier trading as Chinese stocks rallied. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, gained 1.4 percent.
The Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Jan. 25-26, according to all economists in a survey. The Fed has kept its benchmark at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
The labor market may take five years to recover, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Jan. 7. The unemployment rate is at 9.4 percent.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,3500.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained above a mark $1,5900.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in aruond Y82,70

UK data includes retail sales for December as well as lending data from the BoE. Retail sales are expected to decline by a reading of -0.3% m/m, +1.1% y/y with ex-auto data unchanged m/m, 1.5% y/y.
European data for Friday starts at 0745GMT with manufacturing & services sentiment data from France for January. However, the main release from core-Europe is the German Ifo data for January, which is due at 0900GMT. The main index is expected to remain around the last 109.9 reading with the median forecast in an MNI survey coming in at 110.0. European data continues in the afternoon with the Belgian National Bank business sentiment data, which is expected to slip to a reading of +2.3.

09:33
UK DATA: Dec Retail Sales -0.8% m/m; unch. y/y
09:01
GERMANY: Dec Ifo business sentiment 110.3
08:57
Forex: Thursday's review

The Australian and New Zealand dollars declined against most of their major peers as speculation that China will take more measures to cool growth dented demand for higher-yielding currencies.
The U.S. currency and the yen strengthened as equity losses boosted demand for a refuge. Data showed China’s economic growth accelerated, adding to pressure for monetary tightening. 
The dollar pared gains against the common currency before data that economists predict will show U.S. continuing jobless claims increased and home-sales growth slowed.
China’s economic growth quickened to an annual rate of 9.8% in the fourth quarter, up from 9.6% in the prior three months, the statistics bureau said. Consumer prices rose 4.6% in December from a year earlier, compared with 5.1% the previous month.
The People’s Bank of China will increase the key one-year lending rate to 6.81% from 5.81% this year and let the yuan strengthen about 6% against the dollar, Nomura Holdings Inc. forecast this week.
New Zealand’s dollar retreated from near the strongest this year. The government said consumer prices rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, when they advanced 1.1% . Economists forecast 2.4% growth.
The euro gained against the pound and the yen as statistics showed German producer prices climbed at the fastest pace in seven months. 

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3390-$ 1,3525.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,5900.
USD/JPY: the pair  become stronger in around Y83,00

UK data includes retail sales for December as well as lending data from the BoE. Retail sales are expected to decline by a reading of -0.3% m/m, +1.1% y/y with ex-auto data unchanged m/m, 1.5% y/y.
European data for Friday starts at 0745GMT with manufacturing & services sentiment data from France for January. However, the main release from core-Europe is the German Ifo data for January, which is due at 0900GMT. The main index is expected to remain around the last 109.9 reading with the median forecast in an MNI survey coming in at 110.0. European data continues in the afternoon with the Belgian National Bank business sentiment data, which is expected to slip to a reading of +2.3.

07:53
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell the most since November after oil and metal prices dropped and U.S. housing starts decreased more than estimated, renewing concern the U.S. economic recovery will remain sluggish.
Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s largest commodities trader, lost 0.9 percent. Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, and Nintendo Co., the largest maker of portable video-game consoles globally, dropped more than 2 percent. Tokyo Electron Ltd., the world’s No. 2 maker of semiconductor equipment, retreated 3.8 percent on concern industry growth may slow.
The Topix sank 1 percent in 2010 as the yen at its strongest annual average level against the dollar since 1971 dimmed the outlook for export earnings, and as Europe’s debt crisis, China’s steps to curb inflation and concern about U.S. growth damped confidence in a global economic recovery.

European stocks fell for a second day as accelerating Chinese economic growth fueled speculation the government will lift interest rates further to calm inflation, overshadowing a drop in U.S. jobless-benefit claims.
Fiat SpA and Volkswagen AG led automakers lower and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, sank the most in two months amid concern demand from China will be hurt. EasyJet Plc plunged 16 percent after forecasting a first-half loss because of higher fuel costs. Accor SA, Europe’s largest lodging company, slid 6.2 percent as sales trailed estimates.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.2 percent to 279.39 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, extending yesterday’s 1.4 percent slide for the biggest two-day drop since August. The gauge has still advanced 1.3 percent so far this year as reports suggested the global economy is recovering and investors speculated that European leaders will increase their efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis.
National benchmark indexes retreated in 13 of the 18 western European markets. Germany’s DAX dropped 0.8 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 sank 1.8 percent. France’s CAC 40 declined 0.3 percent.
China’s growth accelerated to 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter as industrial production and retail sales picked up, adding pressure on policy makers to keep raising interest rates.

U.S. stocks erased losses, rebounding from the biggest two-day decline since November, as Morgan Stanley’s revenue topping estimates overshadowed concern that China will raise interest rates and hamper global growth.
Morgan Stanley gained 4.7 percent, the most since July, after reporting revenue that beat analysts’ estimates. Home Depot Inc. rose 2.3 percent and homebuilders in Standard & Poor’s indexes added 1 percent after a report showed sales of previously owned American homes topped forecasts. Alcoa Inc. and Schlumberger Ltd. slid at least 0.8 percent following a slump in commodities prices on demand concern. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. declined 4.1 percent after cutting forecasts for copper and gold sales.
The S&P 500 Index lost 0.1 percent to 1,281.22 at 2:17 p.m. in New York, trimming an earlier drop of 0.8 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.67 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 11,828.96.
Thirty of the 42 companies in the index that reported quarterly earnings since Jan. 10 have topped analysts’ predictions, according to Bloomberg data. Income grew 22 percent in the fourth quarter and will increase 14 percent in 2011, according to the average analyst projections. Sales topped estimates at 31 of 40 companies.

07:52
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 2:Y83,70 (high of January)
Resistance 1:Y83,10 (Jan 20 high)
Current price: Y82.18
Support 1:Y82.75 (session low)
Support 2:Y82.50 (50,0 % FIBO Y81.80-Y83.10)
Support 3:Y81.80 (Jan 19 low)
Comments: the pair receded from yesterday's high. The nearest support - Y82,75. Below losses are possible to Y82.50. The nearest resistance - Y83,10. Above growth is possible to Y83.70.

07:50
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9765/85 (Jan 13 and 11 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9690 (session high, Jan 20 high)
Current price: Chf0.9655
Support 1: Chf0.9650 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9520 (Jan 19 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9480 (61,8 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)
Comments: the pair pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest support Chf0,9650. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9520. The nearest resistance Chf0,9690. Above is located Chf0.9765/85.

07:47
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6060 (Jan 18 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5985 (resistance line from Jan 18)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5940 (session high)
Current price: $1.5900
Support 1 : $1.5830 (Jan 20 low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5785 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6060)
Support 3 : $1.5700 (50.0 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6060)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.5900. The nearest resistance - $1,5940. Above  growth is possible to $1,5985. The nearest support - $1,5300. Below  decrease is possible to $1.5785. 

07:45
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3740 (61.8% FIBO $1.4275-$ 1.2870)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3580 (50.0% FIBO $1.4275-$ 1.2870)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3540 (Jan 19 high)
Current price: $1.3484
Support 1 : $1.3395 (Jan 20 low)
Support 2 : $1.3285 (38.2 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3540)
Support 3 : $1.3200 (50,0 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3540)
Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest support - $1,3430. Below decrease is possible to $1.3285. The nearest resistance - $1,3540. Above  growth ispossible to $1,3580. 

07:28
Schedule for today, Friday, Jan'21'2011:

 

04:30 Japan All industry index (November) 0.2% -0.2%
07:45 France Business confidence (January) - 105
09:00 Germany IFO business climate index (January) 110.0 109.9
09:30 UK Retail sales (December) 0.0% 0.3%
09:30 UK Retail sales (December) Y/Y 1.4% 1.1%
13:30 Canada Retail sales (November) 0.4% 0.8%
13:30 Canada Retail sales excluding auto (November) - 0.9%

 

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