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Schedule for tomorrow, Friday, 20 of January:


04:30 Japan  All industry index (November)  0.2% -0.2%
07:45 France Business confidence (January) - 105
09:00 Germany IFO business climate index (January) 110.0 109.9
09:30 UK Retail sales (December) 0.0% 0.3%
09:30 UK Retail sales (December) Y/Y 1.4% 1.1%
13:30 Canada Retail sales (November) 0.4% 0.8%
13:30 Canada Retail sales excluding auto (November) - 0.9%

US OUTLOOK: DB argues US unemployment rate is poised to fall.
Reason is unemploy claims are finally moving lower - mirroring ISM surveys, tax receipts, capital spending, corporate profits and temp hiring. Claims were in a range between 450k and 490k over much of the past year, now "have broken out to the downside." DB ests unemployment will fall to 8.8% by yearend, if not significantly lower.
Dow -23.00 на 11802.29, Nasdaq -28.46 на 2696.90, S&P -4.62 на 1277.30
Акции Visa и MasterCard укрепились. Широкий рынок восстанавливается от сессионного минимума.
Dow -32.24 at 11793.05, Nasdaq -27.53 at 2697.83, S&P -5.30 at 1276.62
Despite the weakness in stocks today, Treasuries have failed to attract buyers. Though the benchmark 10-year Note is off of its low, it still remains down markedly for the day. As such, its yield stands just above 3.40%, which is a high for this week. As an aside, results from an auction of 10-year TIPS are due at the top of the hour. The dollar has caught a bid after falling to losses in seven of the past eight sessions. Relative to a basket of competing currencies it is up 0.4%, but still near the two-month low that it set in the prior session.
American focus: the the risk is off


Currencies of commodity-exporting countries tumbled versus the U.S. dollar as speculation increased that China will take more measures to cool economic growth, curbing appetite for raw materials.

The U.S. currency extended gains versus most of its 16 major counterparts after jobless claims fell more than forecast for the latest week and existing home sales increased more than projected in December. South Africa’s rand and the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian dollars dropped as prices for crude oil, gold and copper slumped.

“The Chinese numbers were the catalyst for the risk-off day,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, head of Americas Group of 10 currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The concerns of further Chinese tightening gathered momentum and you saw the commodity bloc currencies come under pressure.”

The South African rand fell 1.2 percent to 7.0785 per dollar at 12:11 p.m. in New York, from 6.9931 yesterday. It touched 7.1127, the weakest since Dec. 1. New Zealand’s dollar dropped 1.6 percent to 75.67 U.S. cents and the Aussie lost 1.4 percent to 98.73 U.S. cents.


SNB HILDEBRAND: Eurozone stability key factor for Swiss growth

--Data give relatively robust picture of Swiss economy
--Strong SFR is a 'great burden' for parts of economy
--Eurozone will return to stability
--European debt crisis not over, uncertainty is high

Dow -76.21 at 11749.08, Nasdaq -38.57 at 2686.79, S&P -10.51 at 1271.41

After a brief breather, sellers have redoubled their efforts to take the Nasdaq to a new session low. Given the steepness of its slide both today and yesterday, the Nasdaq is on pace for its worst back-to-back performance since August.
The magnitude of the back-to-back selling suggests that something more than profit taking might be going on in the market. Stocks registered new two-year highs only two days ago, but in the stock market's ascent to that point pull backs were met with subsequent support.

Orders desk:

Offers: $1.3520, $1.3545/50, $1.3570/80
Bids: $1.3420, $1.3400/395, $1.3360/50

Offers: Y83.00, Y83.15/20, Y83.70
Bids: Y81.80/00, Y81.50

Philly Fed text:

"regional manufacturing activity continues to expand in January. All of the broad indicators remained positive this month and there was an apparent pickup in new orders and employment. Increases in input prices continue to be widespread this month, and more firms reported increases in prices for their manufactured goods. The survey's broad indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect a continued expansion in activity over the next six months." Diffusion index edges down but has been positive for four consecutive months. Labor mkt is improving.

US: Jan Philly Fed index +19.3 vs Dec 20.8
March WTI fall extended again to $89.19 with next support seen at $88.34.
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised for a flat open Thursday, despite a better-than-expected report on initial jobless claims, as investors await readings on housing and manufacturing.

On Wednesday, stocks ended lower, as weak results from tech shares took a drubbing and Goldman Sachs' disappointing results pressured financial issues. Shares of Goldman (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Barclays (BCS) fell more than 3%.
Economy: The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment insurance eased by 37,000 to 404,000 last week. The number was lower than forecast. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting 425,000 jobless claims in the latest week.
After the opening bell, the National Association of Realtors will release its monthly report on existing home sales. Analysts polled by Briefing.com expect sales rose to an annual rate of 4.8 million in December, from 4.68 million the previous month.
The index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board is expected to have risen 0.6% in December after a 1.1% increase the previous month.
After the market opens, the Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing, is expected to show that activity in that sector slowed in January.
Companies: Morgan Stanley (MS) posted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.1 billion, or 43 cents a share. Revenue rose 14% from a year earlier to $7.8 billion. Analysts expected the investment bank to report earnings per share of 35 cents on revenue of $7.35 billion. Shares of Morgan Stanley jumped 2% following the report.
After the market closed Wednesday, EBay (EBAY) said its fourth-quarter revenue rose 5% over the prior year to $2.5 billion. Net income rose to 42 cents a share, or $559.2 million. Shares of the retailer rose 3% in pre-market trading.
Google (GOOG) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings results after the close of trading Thursday.
World markets:

China's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, expanded at an annual rate of 9.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The rate was faster than the 9.6% rate reported in the prior quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Meanwhile, inflation cooled -- with the nation's consumer price index rising 4.6% last month, compared to 5.1% in November.
China's rapid growth has sparked fears that its economy may overheat, and many economists are expecting China to further tighten its monetary policy and hike interest rates.
Oil for March delivery slipped 76 cents to $91.05 a barrel.
Gold futures for February delivery fell $12.60 to $1,357.60 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.40% from 3.34% late Wednesday.

CRT says 404k jobless claims are lower than expected for "a solid improvement during NFP-Survey week."
CS says unemploy claims are improving

"encouraging are survey week comparisons in January vs. December- on the week 404K vs. 420K in December 18th week and the smoother 4-week average is 412K vs. 426K in the December 18th week."

GBP/USD extends correction

Corrective pullback off earlier posted highs at $1.6010 extends to $1.5965, with rate currently trading back around $1.5975. Further demand seen placed between $1.5960/50, a break of $1.5945 to open a deeper move toward $1.5935/30. Offers remain in place to $1.6010 with stops above.

US: Initial jobless claims -37k to 404k in Jan. 15 employment survey week
EUR/USD under pressure

Squeezes back toward mentioned support at $1.3480, with traders noting directional sellers emerging on the move back below $1.3520, with similar sell interest seen in aussie and cable. A break and clear below $1.3480 to open a deeper move toward $1.3455/50, ahead of $1.3420.

AUD/USD weakens

Sales from real money accounts have just kicked aussie lower AUD/USD from $0.9945 to $0.9927, ahead of exporter bids $0.9915/25 and corporate demand $0.9880/9905. Aussie trades $0.9927.

COMPANY NEWS: Morgan Stanley (MS) has reported Q4 net revenue of $7.8 bln versus estimates of $7.32 bln.
EU session review: Australian, New Zealand Dollars drop on speculation China will cool growth

Data released
07:00     Germany     PPI (December)    0.7%    0.5%    0.2%
07:00     Germany     PPI (December) Y/Y    5.3%    5.1%    4.4%
11:00     UK     CBI industrial order books balance (January)  -16%    -3%

The Australian and New Zealand dollars declined against most of their major peers as speculation that China will take more measures to cool growth dented demand for higher-yielding currencies.
The U.S. currency and the yen strengthened as equity losses boosted demand for a refuge. Data showed China’s economic growth accelerated, adding to pressure for monetary tightening.
The dollar pared gains against the common currency before data that economists predict will show U.S. continuing jobless claims increased and home-sales growth slowed.
China’s economic growth quickened to an annual rate of 9.8% in the fourth quarter, up from 9.6% in the prior three months, the statistics bureau said. Consumer prices rose 4.6% in December from a year earlier, compared with 5.1% the previous month.
The People’s Bank of China will increase the key one-year lending rate to 6.81% from 5.81% this year and let the yuan strengthen about 6% against the dollar, Nomura Holdings Inc. forecast this week.
New Zealand’s dollar retreated from near the strongest this year. The government said consumer prices rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, when they advanced 1.1% . Economists forecast 2.4% growth.
The euro gained against the pound and the yen as statistics showed German producer prices climbed at the fastest pace in seven months.

EUR/USD fell to $1.3417 after it failed to break above $1.3500 at first attempt. Later rate printed highs on Y1.3522.

GBP/USD rose from $1.5905 to $1.6010 before set stable within the $1.5970/$1.6000 range.

USD/JPY held within the narrow Y82.00/Y82.30 range.

US data starts at 1330GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 25,000 to 420,000 in the January 15 employment survey week after rising 35,000 in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 420,000 in the December 18 employment survey week.

EUR/JPY challenges Y111.00

EUR/JPY breaks through Y111.00/10 exporter orders. Clear break here through Y111.16 high of Tuesday opens up to Y111.95 high of Dec 17. Cross trades Y111.00/03

USD/CAD probes parity

Good demand seen on USD/CAD, as rate gets an added push toward parity. Rate trades to C$0.9992, with rate retaining a firm tone. A break above C$1.0010 to open a move toward C$1.0030/35.

EU focus: Canada's Dollar weakens for a second day on central bank, recovery outlook

The Canadian dollar weakened for a second day after the Bank of Canada indicated future interest- rate increases are on hold because the nation’s economic recovery is threatened by the currency’s climb beyond parity.

“There had been a lot of speculation recently about a tightening, possibly as early as March,” Mathieu D’Anjou, a senior economist at Desjardins Group, said. “Given what the bank said yesterday, this seems much less probable now. The bank really doesn’t seem in a hurry to boost its target rate, and this has been putting pressure on the currency.”
The central bank predicted in its Monetary Policy Report released today a “modest” economic recovery hampered by a strong currency that limits exports. It said a “gradual” reduction of monetary stimulus through 2012 will keep inflation under control.
The yield on Canada’s 2-year note fell eight basis points to 1.69 percent, the biggest decline since Sept. 7.
Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s decision Jan. 17 to tighten rules in an attempt to curb record household borrowing may allow the Bank of Canada to hold off on raising interest rates before May at the earliest, David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates in Toronto, said in a note to clients today.
Canada’s gross domestic product will grow 2.4% this year and 2.8% in 2012, the Bank of Canada said yesterday, compared with an October forecast for gains of 2.3% this year and 2.6% next year.
Yesterday’s statement “was less hawkish than the market had anticipated, with the Bank of Canada highlighting an improved global economic outlook and a better growth profile for Canada,” Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital unit, wrote. “However, this was offset by the bank’s view that inflationary pressure remains subdued and the impact that a strong Canadian dollar has on restraining exports.”

GBP/USD below $1.6000

GBP/USD back below $1.6000 but seen meeting demand interest placed toward $1.5980. Offers remain at $1.6010, with stops above. If stops triggered seen opening a move back toward $1.6040. Below $1.5980 opens a deeper move toward $1.5960/50.

EUR/USD above $1.3500
EUR/USD seen with good demand in the $1.3492/95 area, as rate edges above $1.3500 to $1.3502. Traders also mention that next barrier interest seen up at $1.3550. Rate Wednesday hit a high of $1.3539 before slipping back to this morning's lows of $1.3418.
OIL: March WTI crude off the lows earlier of $91.07 and picking up again with euro and equities to $91.66 before slipping back to $91.50.
AUD/USD holds high

Recovery strengthened by rising euro-dollar to $0.9962. Bids on AUD/USD from exporters remain in place $0.9915/25 with strong corporate demand also seen from $0.9905 down to $0.9880. Offers reportedly ahead at $0.9965/70 with stops through $0.9985/90. Aussie trades $0.9959/61

FX: Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut,

EUR/USD:$1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550/55, $1.3600, $1.3315, $1.3300

USD/JPY: Y81.00, Y81.05, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y83.00, Y83.25

USD/CHF: Chf0.9500, Chf0.9570, Chf0.9645, Chf0.9655

AUD/USD: $1.0100, $1.0060, $1.0050, $1.0000, $0.9870

NZD/USD: $0.7800

AUD/NZD: NZ$1.3110

EUR/AUD: A$1.3685

Asian session: The dollar rose

02:00 China GDP y/y +9,8%
02:00 China CPI y/y +4,6%
02:00 China  PPI y/y +5,9%
02:00 China  Industrial Production y/y +13,5%
02:00 China  Retail Sales y/y +19,1%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index 102,4
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index 100,6

The dollar rose against the euro, snapping a three-day drop, as a decline in Asian stocks and speculation China will take more measures to cool growth boosted demand for the greenback as a refuge.
The U.S. currency strengthened versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts after a report showed China’s economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, adding pressure for monetary tightening. 
The yen rose for a second day versus Australia’s dollar as the stock losses damped demand for higher-yielding assets. 
New Zealand’s currency fell after a government report showed inflation quickened by less than some economists forecast.
China’s economic growth quickened to an annual rate of 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter, from 9.6 percent in the prior three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing. Consumer prices rose 4.6 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with 5.1 percent the previous month.
Gains in the dollar were tempered before a report today that economists said will show continuing claims for U.S. jobless benefits increased.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,3440.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,5940.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,00-Y82,25.

UK data includes SMMT Car Production at 0930GMT as well as the 1100GMT release of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey for January. France industrial orders for November rounds off European data at 1100GMT.
US data starts at 1330GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 25,000 to 420,000 in the January 15 employment survey week after rising 35,000 in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 420,000 in the December 18 employment survey week.

Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar fell to an eight-week low against the euro on speculation a sluggish recovery in U.S. housing and labor markets will deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.
The U.S. currency dropped to the lowest in two weeks versus the yen before reports today forecast to show continuing jobless claims increased. It also fell after data yesterday revealed China’s overall holdings of U.S. government debt declined in November. 
The euro rose after the region’s finance ministers made a commitment to increase the size of a bailout fund to tackle the debt crisis.
The euro has risen 5% against the dollar since ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warned on Jan. 13 that the central bank will act if needed to contain inflation risks, which he said “could move to the upside.”
Inflation accelerated to 2.2% last month, breaching the ECB’s 2% limit for the first time in more than two years. Trichet said last week it may quicken further before moderating toward the end of the year.
Gains in the euro were tempered on speculation European policy makers will delay efforts to provide more funds for debt- strapped countries.

EUR/USD: the pair  shown high in the field of $1,3540 then  receded.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,5940-$ 1,6040.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around Y82,00.

UK data includes SMMT Car Production at 0930GMT as well as the 1100GMT release of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey for January. France industrial orders for November rounds off European data at 1100GMT.
US data starts at 1330GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 25,000 to 420,000 in the January 15 employment survey week after rising 35,000 in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 420,000 in the December 18 employment survey week.

Stocks: Wednesday's review

Japanese stocks rose, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average higher for the third day this week, after Apple Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. reported earnings that exceeded analysts’ estimates.
Hitachi Ltd., which makes consumer electronics, gained 3.8 percent. Elpida Memory Inc., the world’s No. 3 maker of computer-memory chips, increased 5.7 percent. Panasonic Corp., the world’s largest maker of plasma televisions, climbed 0.6 percent. Toray Industries Inc. rose 4.7 percent, leading textile companies higher and extending gains yesterday, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its share-price estimate on the company.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.4 percent to 10,557.10 at the close of trading in Tokyo. The broader Topix index climbed 0.6 percent to 936.87, with more than double the number of stocks rising as falling. The Topix is on course for its third consecutive weekly gain this year.
The Topix has risen 4.2 percent this year, driving the average price of shares in the index to 16.1 times estimated earnings on average, near the highest level since August. The gauge sank 1 percent in 2010 as the yen at its strongest annual average level against the dollar since 1971 dimmed the outlook for export earnings, and as Europe’s debt crisis, China’s steps to curb inflation and concern about U.S. growth damped confidence in a global recovery.
European stocks slid the most since November after a report said the U.S. building industry started work on fewer homes than projected and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted earnings that failed to exceed analysts’ estimates.
Qiagen NV sank 2.2 percent as Exane BNP Paribas cut its recommendation on the shares. Swatch Group AG declined even after reporting increased sales and ASML Holding NV dropped even as its quarterly profit beat estimates. Kesa Electricals Plc plunged 9.8 percent after the owner of Comet and Darty electrical goods stores said its profit will be toward the lower end of analysts’ projections.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.4 percent to 282.72 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, the gauge’s largest retreat in seven weeks. The measure advanced 1 percent last week as investors speculated that European leaders will increase their efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis.
Euro-area finance ministers meeting late on Jan. 17 ruled out increasing the size of the 750 billion-euro EFSF for now.
U.S. stocks fell, pulling benchmark indexes down from two-year highs, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported profit that failed to exceed analysts’ estimates and housing starts declined more than forecast.
Goldman Sachs slid 3.1 percent after earnings tumbled 52 percent because of lower revenue from trading and investment banking. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes slumped 2.6 percent. American Express Co. fell the most in a month, retreating 2.6 percent, following a lower-than-estimated profit forecast. International Business Machines Corp. rallied 3.5 percent after earnings topped projections.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1 percent to 1,282.74 at 2:32 p.m. in New York after a two-day rally of 0.9 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 19.37 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,818.56 as IBM’s advance limited losses.
The S&P 500 has rallied seven straight weeks as optimism increased that the economy is rebounding and companies beat profit estimates. Seventeen of the 24 companies in the index that reported quarterly earnings since Jan. 10 have topped analysts’ predictions, according to Bloomberg data. Income grew 22 percent in the fourth quarter and will increase 14 percent in 2011, according to the average analyst projections. Sales topped estimates at 18 of the 24.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.00 (Jan 14 high)
Resistance 2:Y82,80 (Jan 18 high)
Resistance 1:Y82,25 (session high)
Current price: Y82.12
Support 1:Y81.80 (Jan 19 low)
Support 3:Y81.60 (Jan 4 low)
Support 3:Y80.90 (Jan 3 low)
Comments: the pair bargains above mark Y82,00. The nearest support - Y81,80. Below losses are possible to Y81.60. The nearest resistance - Y82,25. Above growth is possible  to Y82.80.                                

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9765/85 (Jan  13 and 11 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9600 (resistance line from Jan 13)
Current price: Chf0.9555
Support 1: Chf0.9520 (Jan 19 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9480 (61,8 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)
Support 3: Chf0.9300 (historical low)
Comments: the pair has receded from the low reached yesterday. The nearest support Chf0,9520. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9480. The nearest resistance Chf0,9600. Above is  located Chf0.9650.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6180 (Nov 12 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6100 (Nov 19 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6060 (Jan 18 high)
Current price: $1.5950
Support 1 : $1.5920 (support line from Jan 7)
Support 3 : $1.5785 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6060)
Support 3 : $1.5700 (50.0 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6060)
Comments: the pair bargains below a mark $1.6000. The nearest resistance - $1,6060. Above growth is possible to $1,6100. The nearest support - $1,5920. Below decrease is possible to $1.5785. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3740 (61.8 % FIBO $1.4275-$ 1.2870)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3580 (50.0 % FIBO $1.4275-$ 1.2870)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3540 (Dec 19 high)
Current price: $1.3458
Support 1 : $1.3470 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3285 (38.2 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3540)
Support 3 : $1.3200 (50,0 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3540)
Comments: the pair receded from yesterday's high. The nearest support - $1,3430. Below decrease is possible to $1.3285. The nearest resistance - $1,3540. Above growth is possible to $1,3580. 

Schedule for today, Thursday, Jan'20'2011:

05:00 Japan Leading indicators composite index (November) final 97.2 97.2
05:00 Japan Coincident indicators composite index (November) final 100.7 100.7
07:00 Germany PPI (December) 0.5% 0.2%
07:00 Germany PPI (December) Y/Y 5.1% 4.4%
11:00 UK CBI industrial order books balance (January) -1% -3%
11:00 UK CBI industrial output balance (January) - 13%
13:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 15.01) 425K 445K
15:00 USA Existing home sales (December), mln 4.90 4.68
15:00 USA Leading indicators (December) 0.6% 1.1%
15:00 USA Philadelphia Fed index (January) 22.0 24.3
21:30 USA M2 money supply (10.01), bln - -23.1

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