|00:30 (GMT)||Japan||Manufacturing PMI||November||48.7|
|00:30 (GMT)||Japan||Nikkei Services PMI||November||47.7|
|07:00 (GMT)||Germany||Producer Price Index (YoY)||October||-1%||-0.7%|
|07:00 (GMT)||Germany||Producer Price Index (MoM)||October||0.4%||0.1%|
|07:00 (GMT)||United Kingdom||PSNB, bln||October||-36.1||-35.2|
|07:00 (GMT)||United Kingdom||Retail Sales (YoY)||October||4.7%||4.2%|
|07:00 (GMT)||United Kingdom||Retail Sales (MoM)||October||1.5%||0%|
|13:00 (GMT)||Germany||German Buba President Weidmann Speaks|
|13:30 (GMT)||Canada||Retail Sales, m/m||September||0.4%||0.2%|
|13:30 (GMT)||Canada||New Housing Price Index, YoY||October||3.2%|
|13:30 (GMT)||Canada||New Housing Price Index, MoM||October||1.2%||1%|
|13:30 (GMT)||Canada||Retail Sales YoY||September||3.5%|
|13:30 (GMT)||Canada||Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m||September||0.5%||0.2%|
|15:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Consumer Confidence||November||-15.5||-17.7|
|18:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count||November||236|
Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Thursday that the U.S. existing home
sales rose 4.3 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.85 million in October
from a revised 6.57 million in September (originally 6.54 million). That was
the highest reading since November 2005.
Economists had forecast home resales decreasing to a 6.45 million-unit pace last month.
In y-o-y terms, existing-home sales climbed 26.6 percent in October.
According to the report, each of the four major regions recorded both m-o-m and y-o-y growth, with the Midwest experiencing the greatest monthly increases. Single-family home sales stood at 6.12 million in October, up 4.1 percent from 5.88 million in September, and up 26.7 percent from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $317,700 in October, up 16.0 percent from October 2019. Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 30,000 units in October, up 5.8 percent from September and up 25.9 percent from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $273,600 in October, an advance of 10.3 percent from a year ago.
Considering that we remain in a period of stubbornly high unemployment relative to pre-pandemic levels, the housing sector has performed remarkably well this year," noted Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "The surge in sales in recent months has now offset the spring market losses," he added. "With news that a COVID-19 vaccine will soon be available, and with mortgage rates projected to hover around 3% in 2021, I expect the market's growth to continue into 2021." Yun sees existing-home sales to rise by 10 percent to 6 million in 2021.
Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia on Thursday, revealed the region's manufacturing activity continued
to grow in November, albeit at a slower pace than in October.
According to the survey, the diffusion index for current general activity fell from 32.3 in October to 26.3 this month.
Economists had forecast the index to decrease to 22.0.
A reading above 0 signals expansion, while a reading below 0 indicates contraction.
According to the report, the new orders index fell 4.7 points to 37.9, while the current shipments index declined 21.6 points to 24.9. Meanwhile, the current employment index surged 14.5 points to 27.2 this month. Elsewhere, the survey’s price indicators suggest increased price pressure: the prices paid index climbed 10.4 points to 38.9 and the prices received index jumped 11.4 points to 25.4.
U.S. stock-index futures fell on Thursday after data showed initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased for the previous week, adding to fears that rising COVID-19 cases and tighter restrictions to slow the spread of the virus would lead to further economic damage.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
FXStreet notes that whilst analysts at Credit Suisse remain bullish on the S&P 500 Index, the break of gap support at 3585 on Wednesday is seeing adding weight to the view for further near-term consolidation and a test of support at 3519/09.
“The S&P 500 saw a sharp pullback at the end of the session on Wednesday as strength stalled ahead of the 3645 current high, never mind trend resistance from February, now at 3669, adding weight to our view a more cautious rather than aggressive bullish stance is warranted given a growing number of overextension measures - 88% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day average and the market remains at the upper end of its ‘typical’ extreme.”
“With gap support at 3585 broken we look for further near-term ranging to thus emerge and a deeper pullback with support seen at 3553 next, then what we continue to look to be better support, starting at the 13-day exponential average at 3531 and stretching down to the recent lows and the price gap prior to the initial Pfizer vaccine announcement at 3519/09, which we continue to look to hold to form a potential bullish ‘pennant’ pattern.”
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
American Express Co
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Exxon Mobil Corp
FedEx Corporation, NYSE
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.
International Business Machines Co...
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
The Coca-Cola Co
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; target raised to $130
Citigroup (C) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; target raised to $65
The data from
the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for
unemployment unexpectedly rose last week, as the U.S. labor market is
struggling to recover from its biggest shock in history, caused by the COVID-19
According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 742,000 for the week ended November 14. This marked the first rise in weekly initial claims since the week ended October 11.
Economists had expected 707,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 711,000 from the initial estimate of 709,000.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims decreased to 742,000 from an upwardly revised 755,750 in the previous week.
Continuing claims declined to 6,372,000 million from an upwardly revised 6,801,000 in the previous week.
|08:00||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
|09:00||Eurozone||Current account, unadjusted, bln||September||20.4||27.6||33.5|
|10:00||Eurozone||Construction Output, y/y||September||0.4%||-2.5%|
|11:00||United Kingdom||CBI industrial order books balance||November||-34||-39||-40|
|13:30||U.S.||Continuing Jobless Claims||November||6801||6470||6372|
|13:30||U.S.||FOMC Member Mester Speaks|
|13:30||U.S.||Initial Jobless Claims||November||711||707||742|
|13:30||U.S.||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey||November||32.3||22||26.3|
USD strengthened against its major rivals in the European session on Thursday as rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and other key world economies heightened worries over the potential fallout from COVID-restrictions on the global economy, curbing risk sentiment, which was boosted by upbeat vaccine news.
According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of coronavirus- infected people in the U.S. increased to 11,531,451, the most in the world. Meanwhile, the death toll from coronavirus reached 250,548, also the most in the world. Overall, the total number of confirmed global coronavirus cases rose to 56,394,215 and deaths grew to 1,352,188.
Investors worry that, while the world waits for any COVID-19 vaccine to be approved and distributed, the governments are forced to impose tighter restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus, which will lead to further economic damage.
On Wednesday, New York Governor Cuomo announced that New York City public schools will temporarily close due to surging coronavirus cases.
In addition, a much-needed stimulus bill is unlikely to be immediately approved by the U.S. Senate.
FXStreet notes that the initial optimism that followed the positive vaccine news at the start of last week brought a collective sigh of relief from the global population. The improvement in risk appetite led to a sharp upward adjustment in the value of the EUR/CHF. Additionally, the Swiss Nationa Bank (SNB) maintains a policy of FX intervention. All in all, Jane Foley Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, expects the EUR/CHF pair to post a slight appreciation in the coming months.
“Assuming risk appetite remains in a better footing the implication is that the SNB may be able to take its foot off the pedal somewhat in its efforts to offset gains in the value of the CHF. That said, the war on currency strength is far from won."
“The bad news for the SNB is that in the current environment the number of other G10 central banks fighting disinflation or deflation have increased. This could mean that the SNB’s effort to weaken its currency could be less effective. We see EUR/CHF at the 1.08 area on a 3-month view rising only moderately to 1.09 next summer.”
“The ECB is widely expected to increase its asset purchases in its December policy meeting. The downward pressure on interest rate curves across the eurozone could detract from the attraction of the EUR and limit upside potential for EUR/CHF.”
FXStreet notes that more Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and funding seem ever more likely at next month’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on December 10. Meanwhile, EUR/USD’s 1.15-1.20 range is set to persist as COVID-19 restrictions crush the region’s recovery, per Westpac.
“Despite UK media suggestions that EC’s 19th Nov summit might have been arranged in hope of a post-Brexit trade deal, it has always been set to focus on ‘EU responses to the COVID-19 pandemic’. Recent resistance (notably from Poland) to the Recovery Fund means that this focus has become more appropriate. Discussion of coordination of an eventual vaccine program in the region is also likely.”
“Increasing covid-related restrictions across Europe in the past month have put further pressure on regional budgets... Prompt enacting of the Recovery Fund to facilitate rising deficits is, therefore, more critical. Failure to gain ratification will increase pressure on the ECB. Prospects for an EU/UK trade deal are also important for regional sentiment into 2021.”
“ECB has reiterated its intention to recalibrate policy tools with a bias to increase PEPP and provide more favourable TLTROs at its Dec 10th meeting. Until then EUR/USD is likely to remain in its 1.15-1.20 range.”
NVIDIA (NVDA) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $2.91 per share (versus $1.78 per share in Q3 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.92 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $4.726 bln (+56.8% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.422 bln.
The company also issued upside guidance for Q4 FY 2020, projecting revenues of $4.80 bln, +/- 2%, equating to $4.704-4.896 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.43 bln.
NVDA fell to $529.00 (-1.52%) in pre-market trading.
FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse note that GBP/USD has again rejected resistance at 1.3310/19 - the 78.6% retracement of the fall from September - to raise the prospect of further sideways ranging for now with support seen at 1.3172/62.
“Near-term support is seen at 1.3204, then 1.3193, with the 13 -day average and price support at 1.3172/62 now ideally holding for a retest of 1.3310/19. Below 1.3162 though can see a deeper fall back to 1.3127, but with a break below 1.3106 needed to warn of a near-term in -range top ad a fall back to the uptrend support at 1.2942.”
“Resistance is seen at 1.3263 initially. Above 1.3310/19 can add weight to our view as we first highlighted in late September that we are in the process of forming the potential ‘right-hand shoulder’ to a major basing process for a move to 1.3403/09 next and eventually back to long -term price and ‘neckline’ resistance at 1.3472/1.3514."
survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed on Thursday the
UK manufacturers' order books deteriorated in November and were far below their
According to the report, the CBI's monthly factory order book balance decreased to -40 in October from -34 in the previous month and remained well below the long-run average of -14. Economists had forecast the reading to come in at -39. Export order books (-51) also fell from September (-46) and remain far below their long-run average (-18).
The CBI also reported that output volumes in the three months to November (-6) dropped at the slowest pace since September 2019. However, it was expected that output would fall at a slightly quicker pace in the next three months (-10), marking a worsening in expectations compared to last month’s survey (+15). In addition, manufacturers forecast output prices to decline in the next three months (-8 from +4 in October).
“Output volumes have declined at their slowest pace in over a year in our November survey. But order books have softened again as global demand has been hit by intensified lockdowns, and manufacturers have trimmed their expectations”, noted Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist.
Meanwhile, Tom Crotty, Group Director at INEOS and Chair of the CBI Manufacturing Council, said: “These results show what we already know – that manufacturers up and down the country are continuing to face very difficult circumstances as we move into the winter.”
FXStreet reports that according to Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG Bank, Brexit talks have yet to yield a breakthrough and a failure is set to down sterling by 5% to 10%.
“Pound weakness has been driven in part by reports that some EU countries are insisting that ‘no deal’ is better than a bad deal.”
“A head-to-head meeting between chief Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost today has been described as a ‘moment of truth’ by one EU official. If there is thought to have been sufficient progress, the UK team could remain in Brussels over the weekend. Observers still expect a deal early next week or in the first week of December.”
“There is likely to be a much larger pound move to the downside if both sides fail to reach a deal (-5% to -10%), while we expect a modest move to the upside for the pound if a deal is finalized (+1% to +4%).”
According to the report from Eurostat, in September 2020 compared with August 2020, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector decreased by 2.9% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU. In August 2020, production in construction increased by 3.9% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU.
In September 2020 compared with September 2019, production in construction decreased by 2.5% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU.
In the euro area in September 2020, compared with August 2020, building construction decreased by 3.2% and civil engineering by 0.4%. In the EU, building construction decreased by 2.7% and civil engineering by 0.8%.
In the euro area in September 2020, compared with September 2019, building construction decreased by 3.0% while civil engineering increased by 0.2%. In the EU building construction decreased by 2.9% and civil engineering by 1.4%.
Reuters reports that ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the European Central Bank could "neither go bankrupt nor run out of money" even if it were to suffer losses on the multi-trillion-euro pile of bonds it has bought under its stimulus programmes.
"As the sole issuer of euro-denominated central bank money, the Eurosystem will always be able to generate additional liquidity as needed," Lagarde said.
"So, by the definition, it will neither go bankrupt nor run out of money. In addition to that, any financial losses, should they occur, would not impair our ability to seek and maintain price stability.
According to the report from European Central Bank, the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €25 billion in September 2020, increasing by €4 billion from the previous month. Surpluses were recorded for goods (€33 billion) and services (€7 billion). Deficits were recorded for secondary income (€12 billion) and primary income (€2 billion).
In the 12 months to September 2020, the current account recorded a surplus of €222 billion (1.9% of euro area GDP), compared with a surplus of €270 billion (2.3% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to September 2019. This decline was driven by reductions in the surpluses for services (down from €72 billion to €20 billion) and for primary income (down from €65 billion to €22 billion). These developments were partly offset by a larger surplus for goods (up from €298 billion to €327 billion) and a smaller deficit for secondary income (down from €164 billion to €147 billion).
In financial account, euro area residents’ net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities totalled €462 billion and non-residents’ net acquisitions of euro area portfolio investment securities totalled €384 billion in 12 months to September 2020
FXStreet reports that economists at TD Securities prefer a defensive posture in the coming weeks, adding that the USD has some room to tactically rally.
“No doubt that vaccines are a positive long-term, we think the market is overestimating the timing and scalability of its implementation. We attempted to capture this dynamic by evaluating how well long/short/stay-at-home equity ‘vaccine’ baskets have traded to the overall global MSCI index. On this basis, equity markets have overshot.”
“We think it might be a touch early for an equity rotation to take place towards growth/value, as these sectors are reliant on a pick-up in economic activity – a challenging proposition as outlined above. COVID-19 mitigation measures in both the US and Europe also exacerbate this issue.”
“As far as the USD is concerned, we think a modest 2% rally in the very short-term is reasonable. We are long USD/CAD in looking for a move towards the 1.33/35 zone before fading.”
|00:00||U.S.||FOMC Member Bostic Speaks|
|00:30||Australia||Changing the number of employed||October||-42.5||-30||178.8|
|07:30||Switzerland||Industrial Production (YoY)||Quarter III||-8.6%||-5.1%|
|08:00||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose weakly against the euro and the yen.
The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (the euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.13%.
Experts note that data on the continuing increase in the incidence of diseases and new restrictive measures in the United States contribute to the return of demand for the dollar as a "safe haven"asset.
The rising incidence of COVID-19 in New York, which was the epicenter of the pandemic during the first wave, forced the city to impose new restrictions. New York mayor Bill de Blasio announced, among other things, the temporary closure of schools and the complete transfer of students to distance learning.
In general, in the United States, the incidence of COVID-19 is growing, and the number of deaths from coronavirus infection has already exceeded 250 thousand.
Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China will continue to cut its tariffs and expand imports of high-quality goods and services.
"We will further reduce tariffs and institutional costs..., and expand imports of high-quality products and services from all countries," Xi said.
China will pursue higher quality growth through its "dual circulation" development model, driven by technological innovation, Xi said.
Xi also called for stronger policy coordination among international communities and said globalisation is "irreversible" and that China will not engage in "de-coupling".
"Our new development pattern is not a closed domestic single circulation, but an open and mutually promoting domestic and international dual circulation," Xi said.
Xi also said China will sign free trade pacts with more countries and will promote a high-quality Belt and Road initiative.
eFXdata reports that Danske Research adopts a bearish bias on USD/CAD over the medium-term.
"We fundamentally like to consider USD/CAD as ‘USD/NOK but with a lower beta to global risk sentiment and oil prices’. This is due to the CAD’s close connection to the USD (Canada-US trade link) and Canada’s lower dependence on oil. A way to illustrate the close connection between USD/CAD and USD/NOK is to look at short-dated correlations, which currently run at close to 80%..," Danske notes.
"Looking ahead, we expect the global reflation theme to remain in the driver’s seat. We forecast USD/CAD at 1.30 in 1M (previously 1.34), 1.27 in 3M (was 1.23), 1.27 in 6M (was 1.32) and 1.28 in 12M (was 1.32)," Danske adds.
RTTNews reports that according to the report from Australian Bureau of Statistics, the jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 7.0 percent in October. That was below expectations for 7.2 percent and was up from 6.9 percent in September.
The Australian economy added 178,800 jobs last month for a total of 12,773,900 - far surpassing expectations for the loss of 30,000 jobs after shedding 29,500 jobs in the previous month.
The participation rate jumped to 65.8 percent, beating forecasts for 64.7 percent and up from 64.8 percent a month earlier.
Unemployment increased by 25,500 to 960,900 people (and increased by 238,900 over the year to October 2020). The youth unemployment rate increased 1.0 pts to 15.6 percent (and increased by 3.1 pts over the year to October 2020).
The underemployment rate decreased by 1.0 pts to 10.4 percent (1.9 pts higher than a year ago), while the underutilization rate decreased by 0.9 pts to 17.4 percent.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1850
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 4 is 102876 contracts (according to data from November, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6547);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3245
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 4 is 23809 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2736);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 4 is 27667 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2670);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 18
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|00:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Bostic Speaks|
|00:30 (GMT)||Australia||Changing the number of employed||October||-29.5||-30|
|00:30 (GMT)||Australia||Unemployment rate||October||6.9%||7.2%|
|07:00 (GMT)||Switzerland||Trade Balance||October||2.7|
|07:30 (GMT)||Switzerland||Industrial Production (YoY)||Quarter III||-8.6%|
|08:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
|09:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Current account, unadjusted, bln||September||21.8||27.6|
|10:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Construction Output, y/y||September||-0.9%|
|11:00 (GMT)||United Kingdom||CBI industrial order books balance||November||-34||-39|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Continuing Jobless Claims||November||6786||6470|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Mester Speaks|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Initial Jobless Claims||November||709||707|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey||November||32.3||22|
|15:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Leading Indicators||October||0.7%||0.7%|
|15:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Existing Home Sales||October||6.54||6.45|
|17:35 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Mester Speaks|
|23:30 (GMT)||Japan||National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y||October||-0.3%||-0.7%|
|23:30 (GMT)||Japan||National Consumer Price Index, y/y||October||0.0%||-0.3%|
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