CFD Markets Analysis: News and forecasts for 19 June 2014

23:30

Commodities. Daily history for June 19’2014:

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Gold $1,321.40 +44.20 +3.46%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $114.92 +0.66 +0.58%

NYMEX Crude Oil $106.68 +0.20 +0.19%

23:25

Stocks. Daily history for June 19’2014:

23:20

Currencies. Daily history for June 19'2014:

23:00

Schedule for today, Friday, June 20’2014:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) May -0.1% +0.2%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) May -0.9% -0.7%

06:35 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln April 18.8 19.4

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln May 9.6 11.8

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m April -0.1% +0.4%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m April +0.1% +0.4%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m/m May +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y May +2.0% +2.1%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m May +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y May +1.4% +1.5%

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence June -7 -6

19:00

Dow -12.18 16,894.44 -0.07% Nasdaq -10.08 4,352.76 -0.23% S&P -0.53 1,956.45 -0.03%

16:00

European stock close: FTSE 100 6,808.11 +29.55 +0.44% CAC 40 4,563.04 +32.67 +0.72% DAX 10,004 +73.67 +0.74%

16:00

European stocks close: stocks traded higher supported by the Fed’s interest rate decision

Stock indices traded higher supported by the Fed's interest rate decision. The Fed cut its monthly asset purchases by another $10 billion to $35 billion and kept the Federal Funds Target Rate between zero and 0.25 percent. Market participants had expected this decision. The Fed pointed out that interest rates will remain unchanged for a considerable time after the Fed's asset purchase program ends.

The U.K. retail sales dropped 0.5% in May, in line with forecasts, after a 1.3% gain in April. That was the first drop since January.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the U.K. climbed 3.9% in May, missing expectations for a 4.2% increase, after a 6.9% gain in April.

The Confederation of British Industry released its industrial order books balance. The CBI industrial order books balance increased to 11% in June from 0% in May, exceeding expectations for a climb to 3%.

Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc surged 8.1% after announcing a 1 billion pounds share buyback.

Peugeot SA increased 5.2%.

Electricite de France SA dropped 7.6% after the French energy minister said the government will cancel a 5% rise to electricity prices.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,808.11 +29.55 +0.44%

DAX 10,004.00 +73.67 +0.74%

CAC 40 4,563.04 +32.67 +0.72%

15:41

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The cost of Brent crude rose today, while reaching a nine-month high around $ 115 per barrel, due to the growing tensions in Iraq.

Experts point out that fears of potential supply disruptions in connection with the fighting in Iraq persist, as the conflict between Sunni Islamist militants and the Iraqi army continued on Thursday. According to local residents, Iraqi forces regained control of the oil refinery in Baiji, after he was captured by Sunni militants on Wednesday. Recall that in Iraq, producing about 3.5 million barrels of oil a day last month, making it the second largest oil producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia.

"Iraq - one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters, the second largest OPEC, he overtook Iran. Even a small reduction in production will have a huge impact on oil prices, and some analysts are already talking about the future of 125 and even $ 150 a barrel, "- says the expert of the German Commerzbank Eugen Weinberg. Among economists there is a perception that every extra 10 dollars a barrel of oil cost rob global GDP growth of 0.2%. At the same time, and without the Iraqi crisis, the IMF and other international organizations worsen forecasts for this year.

Meanwhile, adding that oil prices were supported after the Federal Reserve gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy and has remained committed to accommodative monetary policy.

Slight pressure continues to provide data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which showed that domestic crude oil inventories fell by 579,000 barrels in the week ended June 13, which was much less than the decrease of 5.7 million barrels, which have been reported in American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts predicted that stocks decrease by 700,000 barrels. We also add that oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 247,000 barrels, recording the first increase in the past nine weeks.

Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 106.07 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 0.71 to $ 115.00 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

15:39

Foreign exchange market. American session: the U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against the most major currencies after the better-than-expected U.S. economic data

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against the most major currencies after the better-than-expected U.S. economic data. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 14 decreased by 6,000 to 312,000 from 318,000 in the previous week. The previous week's figure was revised down from 317,000. Analysts had expected a decline by 4,000 to 314,000.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index rose to 17.8 in June from 15.4 in May. Analysts had expected a fall to 14.3.

The U.S. currency remained under pressure due to Fed's comments that interest rates in the U.S. will remain unchanged for a considerable time after the Fed's asset purchase program ends.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in the Eurozone.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the U.K. economic data. The U.K. retail sales dropped 0.5% in May, in line with forecasts, after a 1.3% gain in April. That was the first drop since January.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the U.K. climbed 3.9% in May, missing expectations for a 4.2% increase, after a 6.9% gain in April.

The Confederation of British Industry released its industrial order books balance. The CBI industrial order books balance increased to 11% in June from 0% in May, exceeding expectations for a climb to 3%.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The SNB kept unchanged its interest rate close to zero and reaffirmed its commitment to the minimum exchange rate of CHF1.20 per euro as expected by analysts. The SNB said the central bank will monitor the impact of the ECB's interest rate cut on Switzerland and the SNB will take the necessary measures if required.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar. New Zealand's gross domestic product increased 1.0% in the first quarter, missing expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 1.0% rise in the fourth quarter of 2013. The fourth quarter of 2013 figure was revised up from a 0.9% increase.

On a yearly basis, gross domestic product in New Zealand rose 3.8% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations for a 3.7% increase, after a 3.1% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Japanese life insurance firms and retail funds and Fed's interest rate decision supported the demand for the Australian dollar due to higher yields.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its June bulletin. The RBA said foreign property demand may have pushed up houses and the supply of dwellings in Australia. The RBA also said the growth in infrastructure investment in China could remain strong for some time, which will have a positive impact on Australian commodity exporters.

The RBA pointed out that the lower retail sales from May to mid June was driven by "the "significant downturn in consumer confidence".

The Japanese yen traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar. Japan's all industry activity index declined 4.3% in April, after a 1.5% increase in March. Analysts had expected the index to fall 3.7%.

15:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices rose sharply today, reaching in this four-week high, which was due to the weakening of the dollar and the Federal Reserve's statements that the policy remains committed to adaptive measures and low interest rates.

Recall that the U.S. central bank yesterday reduced the amount of QE to $ 10 billion - $ 35 billion, but kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0-0.25% per annum. The Fed also changed the outlook on the dynamics of the interest rate on the 2015-2016 years. Regulator expects that by the end of 2015 it will be 1.25% (previous forecast by - 1%), and by the end of 2016 will grow to about 2.5% instead of 2.25% previously expected. The Fed also worsened outlook for economic growth in the country in 2014 to 2.1-2.3% from the expected 2.8-3% in March, according to a press release from the regulator. Inflation at 1.5-1.7% (from the March forecast - 1.5-1.6%), the unemployment rate will be within 6-6,1% instead of the previously expected 6.1-6.3%. Forecast for 2015 U.S. GDP growth remained at 3-3.2%, inflation - at the level of 1.5-2%, and the forecast for unemployment lowered to 5.4-5.7% from the previous 5.6 - 5.9%. In the long term, the Fed predicts growth of world's largest economy by 2.1-2.3%, the unemployment rate in the range 5.2-5.5%, inflation at around 2%.

As for today's events, the data had little impact on the U.S. labor market, which showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 and amounted to a seasonally adjusted 312,000 in the week ended June 14. Economists had expected the number of applications will be reduced to only 316,000 to 318,000. Moving average for four weeks, which smooths weekly volatility, fell by 3,750 to 311,750. The report also showed that the number of workers continuing to receive unemployment benefits amounted to a seasonally adjusted fluctuations 2,560,000, a decrease of 54,000 in the week ended June 7.

Market participants also continue to monitor the developments in Iraq and Ukraine. "A weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions support gold prices, but the lack of strong physical demand and outflow of funds from exchange-traded funds can weaken Rally" - said precious metals trader in Hong Kong.

Due to low demand in the physical market, ">Stocks of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund secured SPDR Gold Trust declined two consecutive session until Wednesday, approaching the five-month minimum.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1298.0 per ounce.