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USD/JPY within Y79.05/15 range

USD/JPY remained within the Y79.05/15 range for most of the US session amid low volumes. Bids in place sub Y78.90 and offers around Y79.50.

USD/CHF challenges resistance at Chf0.8180/90

USD/CHF holds around Chf0.8190, challenging strong resistance zone at Chf0.8180/90 (23.6% Fibo of Chf0.8520 - Chf0.8080 move). Break above targets Chf0.8250 (38.2%) and Chf0.8330 (Jun 13 high).

EUR/USD holds around $1.4065 in light flows, after dip to $1.4050. Support at recent lows on $1.4015. Bids ahead of $1.4000.
Dow -156.33 at 12323.47, Nasdaq -40.79 at 2749.16, S&P -17.18 at 1298.98

Stocks have been under pressure all session. As a result the S&P 500 fell more than 1% to a new July low.
The gain by gold bullion has helped drive higher shares of metals and mining players in the face of broad market weakness, which has taken all 10 major sectors in to the red to trade with losses of about 1% or more.
Financials have been the poorest performers for virtually the entire session (-2.0%).
With stocks under such heavy pressure, the S&P 500 has slipped below the 1300 line for the first time this month.

US focus: Dollar rises as safe-heaven

Today the dollar strengthened against a basket of rival currencies on concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis and the lack of agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

The market players focus on U.S. debt ceiling talks. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised from the current $14.3 trillion by August 2, the country would face technical default.

Early Monday the rating agency Moody's suggested the US debt ceiling itself should be eliminated to bring greater stability and avoid "periodic uncertainty."

The global debt concerns overshadowed the latest corporate reports, which have been generally better than expected.

The euro fell versus major rivals. Today Italy 10-year yield rose to 6.02% - highest since November 1997. Spanish bond yields also surged euro-lifetime highs.
Also analysts determined last week’s stress test of banks in Europe was fairly relaxed, stoking continued concerns about European debt.

Late Friday the European Banking Authority’s long-awaited stress tests showed that 8 banks failed and will need 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) to survive a serious downturn. 16 other lenders passed, but should raise more money.

European sovereign fears, combined with wrangling over raising the debt ceiling, have boosted safe havens.

The franc reached a new record high versus the dollar on demand for safety after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet noted again his opposition to any restructuring of Greek debt.

Today the gold reached a new historical high at $1.603.80. Investors see gold as the best place to park their money when there's economic or political uncertainty.

GREECE: Former European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing told German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Monday that Greece must leave the Eurozone should it restructure its debt.
AUD/USD declines

AUD/USD declines after it broke support at $1.0580. Rate currently holds around $1.0564. Now support comes at $1.0530/20 and we remain in a bearish market. A hold here could not rule out a squeeze to $1.0690/0700.

EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD printed lows around $1.4015 with euro currently rebounding to $1.4040. Bids remained ahead of $1.4000. Flows still described as very light, but not quite summer doldrums yet.

USD/CAD rises

USD/CAD rises, holding currently at C$0.9620. Traders mention stops at C$0.9625 level (also Friday's high). Rate holds much higher daily lows on C$0.9533.

Spain: we hear unconfirmed talk that Spanish PM Zapetero has resigned.
100 S&P500 companies report this week

Hallburton, Hasbro and IBM today. Apple, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, State Street and Yahoo! on Tuesday. American Express, BlackRock, eBay, E*Trade, Intel and United Technologies on Wednesday. Advanced Micro Devices, AT&T, Morgan Stanley, Pepsico, Travelers on Thursday. Caterpillar, Ford, General Electric, Honeywell, McDonald's, Schlumberger, Verizon and Xerox on Friday.

US: July NAHB-Wells housing market index 15 vs 13 in June
Dow -69.56 at 12410.24, Nasdaq -9.00 at 2780.95, S&P -5.88 at 1310.28

The major equity averages have managed to pare some of their losses so that they are now down modestly this morning. Pressure remains broad based, though; all 10 major sectors are in the red.
Tech issues have done a good job of limiting losses, though. The sector is down just 0.1% at the moment. Among tech issues, IBM (IBM 176.29, +0.75) is sporting a modest gain ahead of its quarterly report this evening. The Capital IQ earnings estimate calls for $3.02 per share. Big Blue generated earnings of $2.61 per share for the same period one year ago.

US: May TICS net foreign purchases of US long-term securities $23.6b; Monthly net TIC flows were -$67.5b.
European session:

The euro fell to a record versus the Swiss franc and slid the most in almost a week against the dollar on concern European leaders will fail to agree on a way to contain the region’s debt crisis at a summit this week.
The franc also reached an all-time high versus the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet repeated his opposition to any restructuring of Greek debt. The yen strengthened against all but one of its 16 major peers tracked by Bloomberg and gold rose to a record, while stocks declined as investors sought the safest assets. Sweden’s krona dropped on speculation Europe’s debt crisis will crimp growth.
“The comments over the weekend still create uncertainty,” said Marcus Hettinger, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. “We have risk aversion in the debt markets before the meeting and that’s pushing the Swiss franc higher and the euro lower.”
Immediate-delivery gold gained as much as $8.50, or 0.5 percent, to $1,602.05 an ounce.
Italian 10-year bond yields rose 25 basis points to 6.0 percent today, approaching the 6.02 percent euro-era record reached last week. Moody’s Investors Service said in a weekly report that Italy’s austerity measures are “a credit negative” for regional and local governments.
“A decision on another Greek package seems no nearer,” Adrian Schmidt, a currency strategist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc in London, wrote in an investor report. “The risks are for more weakness in peripheral bond markets and the euro being needed to concentrate politicians’ minds and force a decision.”
European stocks fell for a third day and a gauge of European banks reached a two-year low as analysts warned that as many as 20 lenders may need to bolster capital following European stress tests. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 1.1 percent, with banks dropping 1.7 percent.
Euribor futures rose, pushing the implied yield on the contract expiring in March 2012 down three basis points to 1.66 percent as investors trimmed bets on higher ECB interest rates.

КАНАДА: инвестиции канадцев в иностранные ценные бумаги, май -$3.51 млрд
Canada: Foreign investment in Canadian securities (May) $15.44B
Orders desk:

Offers: $1.4070/80, $1.4100/10, $1.4130/35, $1.4195/00
Bids: $1.4000, $1.3980, $1.3960/50, $1.3900

Italy 10-year yield rises to 6.02% - highest since November 1997
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3900, $1.4000, $1.4135-40, $1.4150, $1.4165, $1.4185
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y80.00, Y80.65, Y80.90, Y81.00
EUR/JPY Y111.20
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6155, $1.6265
AUD/USD $1.0640, $1.0600, $1.0545, $1.0485, $1.0435

GBP/USD posted new session low

Eases to challenge session lows at $1.6065. Bids seen placed between $1.6065/60 with stops below, with further demand seen into $1.6050, attracted around the 200-DMA at $1.6052. More stops are noted below $1.6050, which if triggered expose next support at $1.6030 with reports that further stops reside below here.

Germany government: we are ready to defend euro
  • Thursday EU summit will calm markets, but won't fully solve debt crisis Thursday.
ECB MERSCH: resent rate rise was to anchor inflation expectations
Gold reach a new historical high $1.601,20. Currently gold at $1.5999,50
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3900, $1.4000, $1.4135, $1.4150, $1.4165, $1.4185
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y80.00, Y80.65, Y80.90, Y81.00
GBP/USD $1.6155, $1.6265
AUD/USD $1.0545, $1.0485, $1.0435

Asian session: The euro fell

The euro fell the most in a week against the dollar and slid to a record versus the Swiss franc on concern European leaders will fail to agree on measures to contain the region’s debt crisis at a summit this week.
The 17-nation currency dropped for the first time in four days versus the yen after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet reiterated his opposition to any restructuring of Greek debt.
The franc strengthened for a seventh day against the euro and the dollar as a decline in Asian stocks boosted demand for safer assets.
Australia’s dollar weakened for a third day as traders added to bets the central bank will cut interest rates over the next 12 months.
Euro-area leaders will meet in Brussels on July 21 to discuss the “financial stability” of the region, European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said in an e-mailed statement on July 15. The second summit in a month follows a worsening of the crisis that pushed Italy to the attention of investors and drove bond yields to euro-area records across Europe’s most debt-laden nations.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in $1.4050  area.
GBP/USD: the pair holds at $1.6060-$ 1.6130.
USD/JPY: the pair holds at Y78.90-Y79.20.

US events start at 1300GMT, when the Treasury International Capital System (TICS) data will put hard numbers on demand for US debt and 
equities abroad. 

Forex: Weekly review

On Monday the euro tumbled to a seven-week low against the dollar and slid versus the yen as rising Italian bond yields stoked concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis in deepening.
The euro fell to a record low against the Swiss franc as Austria’s Finance Minister Maria Fekter said Italy will be discussed today at the monthly gathering of euro-area finance ministers. 
On Tuesday the euro pared losses against its major counterparts after Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said selective default on Greek debt isn’t an option “envisaged” by euro-region finance ministers and Italian government bonds reversed losses. 
The yen reached its strongest level against the dollar since the Group of Seven nations jointly intervened to weaken the currency.
On Wednesday the dollar weakened against all major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank is ready to provide additional economic stimulus if needed and investor demand for higher-yielding assets increased.
Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced against the greenback after better-than-expected economic data on China. The GDP growth of China, Australia's first largest and New Zealand's second-largest trading partner, rose at an annual pace by 9.5% between April and June, down from 9.7% in the previous quarter. But its data on industrial production (act. 15.1% vs. con.13.2% and prev. 13.3%) and retail sales (act. 17.7% vs. con.17.0% and prev. 16.39) appeared to be well above median forecasts.
On Thursday the U.S. dollar significantly dropped as late Wednesday Moody's and Chinese ratings agency Dagong both put the US AAA credit rating on negative watch.
On Friday the euro fluctuated against the dollar before as eight banks failed the European Union stress tests after regulators said they had a combined capital shortfall of 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion).
The European banks were found to have insufficient reserves to maintain a core tier 1 capital ratio of 5 percent in the event of an economic slowdown, the European Banking Authority said.
The assessments are the first by the European Banking Authority since it was set up earlier this year. Last year’s tests by its predecessor were criticized for not being tough enough because banks were shown to need only 3.5 billion euros more capital, a 10th of the lowest analyst estimate. Banks that fail the stress test must present a plan to raise more capital within three months.

Asia Pacific stocks close:

Hang Seng   21,769 -106.82 -0.49%  
S&P/ASX   4,472 -1.55 -0.03%   
Shanghai Composite  2,817 -3.48 -0.12%

Asia Pacific stocks close:

Hang Seng   21,769 -106.82 -0.49%  
S&P/ASX   4,472 -1.55 -0.03%   
Shanghai Composite  2,817 -3.48 -0.12%

US Stocks: Weekly review

The S&P 500 lost 2.5% this week, and about two-thirds of that loss took place on Monday as concerns intensified about Italy's fiscal situation. Europe's fragile financial state remained in focus throughout the week, but commentary about the potential for QE3 took over mid-week after the FOMC minutes revealed discussion among Fed members about the potential for additional monetary policy stimulus, depending on how economic conditions evolve. 

Ben Bernanke reiterated this stance in Wednesday's appearance in front of the House Financial Committee, but on Thursday he acknowledged that the Fed is not prepared to act at this point in time. It seems only natural that the Fed would be discussing such matters given the recent deterioration in economic data, but the mere discussion of the potential doesn't necessarily increase the odds of further accommodation (weakening employment data amid a disinflationary environment would). The market retraced the initial gains made in reaction to the FOMC minutes and day one of the Bernanke speech. 
Then toward the end of the week, focus shifted to ratings agency warnings about the U.S. credit rating. Both Moody's and Standard & Poor’s said the U.S. was at risk for a downgrade if it isn't able to agree on a debt ceiling increase in time. There was a negative response in the market to each of these actions, but the markets quickly recouped their losses, as the warnings didn't really bring about anything that wasn't already known. 
On Friday the market digested the second round of European bank ‘stress tests.' The tests showed 82 of 90 banks passed with a total of 20 banks seeing their Core Tier 1 Requirements below the 5% threshold over the two-year time horizon. The count shows five Spanish banks, two Greek banks, and one Austrian bank failing the test. While the test did show some failures, many are already discounting the tests as using unrealistically favorable loss assumptions.
After Monday's large drop, the broader market had a hard time maintaining traction in either direction, but the overarching drift has been to the downside, despite positive earnings reports from Google (GOOG), JP Morgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C). 

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.90 (high of american session on Jul 12) 

Resistance 2: Y79.60 (session high, Jul 13 high) 
Resistance 1: Y79.30 (Jul 15 high) 
Current price: Y78.99
Support 1:Y78.90 (session low, Jul 15 low)  
Support 2:Y78.50 (Jul 12  and 14 low)  
Support 3:Y78.00 (psychological mark)  
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Y79.00. The immediate support - Y78.90. Below losses are possible to Y78.50. The immediate resistance - Y79.30. Above growth is possible to Y79.60.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8275 (Jul 12 low)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8200 (area of Jul 14-15 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8150 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8128
Support 1: Chf0.8085 (Jul 14 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8050 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8000 (psychological mark)

Comments: pair fell. The immediate support - Chf0.8085. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8050. The immediate resistance Chf0.8150. Above is located Chf0.8200. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6260 (Jun 22 high, resistance line from May 2, 50.0 % FIBO $1.6750-$ 1.5780)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6190 (Jul 14 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6130 (session high)
Current price: $1.6102
Support 1 : $1.6065 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6030 (38.2 % FIBO $1.5780-$ 1.6190)
Support 3 : $1.5990 (50.0 % FIBO $1.5780-$ 1.6190)

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support - $1.6065. Below decrease is  possible to $1.6030. The immediate resistance - $1.6130. Above growth is possible to $1.6190. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4280 (Jul 14 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4200 (Jul 15 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4130 (session high)
Current price: $1.4054
Support 1 : $1.4050 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3950 (Jul 13 low)
Support 3 : $1.3840 (Jul 12 low)

Comments: pair  fell. The immediate support - $1.4050. Below losses are possible to $1.3950. The immediate resistance $1.4130. Above growth is possible to $1.4200. 

Schedule for today, Monday, Jul'18'2011:

12:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities (May) $7.41B $8.22B 

12:30 Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities (May) $3.31B
13:00 USA TICS net flows (May), bln - 68.2
13:00 USA TICS net long-term flows (May), bln - 30.6


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