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Dow -182.43 at 12159.40, Nasdaq -40.75 at 2723.90, S&P -18.13 at 1301.55

Buyers have started to show some signs of life. Their timid entry into early afternoon action has taken the stock market out of its recent trading range to its best level since the early going. The market still has a long way to go before it can fully offset today's decline, though.
The stock market's recent upturn comes after Treasuries recently recorded a session high. Buying in Treasuries has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to a multi-week low of 3.37%. The one-month low for the yield is just below 3.26%; it was set on March 18.

American focus:

Yen and swiss franc gained as concerns grew that efforts to resolve Europe’s debt crisis may stall after election results in Finland showed gains for a euro-skeptic political group.
Finland’s Justice Ministry said support for the True Finns, whose leader Timo Soini says taxpayers shouldn’t have helped rescue Greece or Ireland, jumped to 19 percent in elections yesterday. A permanent bailout fund for indebted euro-area nations requires approval from all 17 members of the bloc.
Greece may not be able to avoid restructuring its debt before summer’s end, said Otto Fricke, the parliamentary budget spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Free Democratic Party coalition partner.
“The big question is: Will Greece make it through summer without buckling and having to find some means of restructuring its debt?” Fricke said today by phone. “The signs aren’t good, though I defy any easy predictions.”
“Restructuring is not an issue we’re discussing,” Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said in an April 16 interview in Washington.
The statement was supported by European Union spokeswoman Chantal Hughes who told reporters in Brussels today that “restructuring is not an option that’s on the table.”
Later Greek official said restructuring is a matter of time. Greece ultimately will not be able to avoid restructuring its sovereign debt, an unnamed Greek government minister told the German daily Die Welt in an interview to be published Tuesday.

GM will hike car prices an avg $123 eff May 2 due to higher commods costs
GM will hike car prices an avg $123 eff May 2 due to higher commods costs
ECB's Wellink categorically rejects Greek debt restructuring.
Dow -213.05 at 12128.78, Nasdaq -50.84 at 2713.81, S&P -20.97 at 1298.71

The overall tone of trade has been negative since the opening bell, but a handful of stocks have managed to tick higher. Akamai Technologies (AKAM 39.37, +1.28) is among them; the stock's 3% surge comes even though there has been now headline or other catalyst to account for the move. Meanwhile, financial plays Citigroup (C 4.46, +0.04) and M&T Bank (MTB 87.15, +1.80) are up after the pair posted upside earnings surprises for the latest quarter.

Atlanta Fed's Lockhart: Q1 GDP could be soft.
Dow -213.34 at 12128.03, Nasdaq -50.10 at 2714.80, S&P -19.53 at 1300.85

After stabilizing for a few minutes, stocks have started to slide lower. The S&P500 sitting just above the psychologically significant 1300 line. The stock market hasn't been below that point in more than three weeks.
Treasuries have failed to attract much support, even though stocks have been shunned. The weakness surrounding Treasuries comes in the wake of news that analysts at S&P assigned a negative outlook to the AAA rating of the U.S.
Declining Sectors: Energy (-2.0%), Materials (-1.9%), Industrials (-1.9%), Tech (-1.8%), Financials (-1.5%), Telecom (-1.0%), Utilities (-0.7%)

US: S&P saying there is a 1-in-3 chance of lowering US rating over next 2 yrs.
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: $1.4300, $1.4420, $1.4430
USD/JPY: Y83.80, Y84.00
EUR/JPY: Y121.00
GBP/USD: $1.6250, $1.6300
AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500
AUD/JPY: Y86.00

Before the bell: Wall Stree points to lose on earnings, Europe in focus

U.S. stocks were poised to start Monday in the red, as investors faced new concerns about the global economy, while awaiting quarterly results from more than 110 members of the S&P 500 this week.
Analysts say earnings and economic reports are front and center on investors' minds. And issues across Europe - a downgrade of Irish banks and a victory by the anti-bailout True Finns party in Finland - are, once again, weighing on sentiment.

Companies: Former Dow component Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of 10 cents, slightly better than forecast. The bank's revenue rose 7% to $19.7 billion, just missing expectations.
Drug maker Eli Lilly (LLY, Fortune 500) and oil services company Halliburton (HAL, Fortune 500) both posted results early Monday that topped analysts' forecasts, and their shares were up more than 1% in premarket trading.
Newspaper chain Gannett (GCI, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share in line with estimates, but fell slightly short on revenue.
Chip maker Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) will report after the bell.

Gold leaps to a new all time high of $1496.90.
AUD/USD under pressure

AUD/USD remains under heavy selling from UK clearers. Rate printed day's low of $1.0510. Talk of some hefty bids placed $1.0505/10. Offers mixed with stops around $1.0585 up to reported barriers at $1.0600 and $1.0610. Aussie trades $1.0520/22.

Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities $-2.55 B
Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities $2.50 B
EUR/JPY tries to back up

EUR/JPY off the recent lows of Y118.23 but the bounces unconvincing. Break down through Y118.22 (April 1 low) now opening a deeper move to Y116.74. Cross trades Y118.44.

EU session review: Euro Declines for Second Day on Greece, Finland

The euro fell for a second day against the dollar on speculation Greece will be unable to avoid a default, even after officials said debt restructuring isn’t being discussed.
The single currency declined to a two-week low versus the yen on concern election gains by Finland’s euro-skeptic bloc will hinder regional efforts to assist ailing nations, including Portugal and Ireland.
Greek bond yields surged to records.
“The latest developments in the euro region have a potential to provide hurdles for the euro,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International. “The situation in Finland has to be monitored very closely, because it’s reflecting a trend in the political landscape of the region. There’s clearly fear among voters that they have to pay for fiscal mistakes of others.”
Greece found support from IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted as saying “further measures may have to be taken” if Greece fails an audit in June.
New Zealand’s dollar dropped against all of its major counterparts as data showed consumer prices rose less than forecast.  New Zealand’s consumer prices rose 0.8% in the first quarter from three months earlier, the government said today. Economists forecast a 1% gain.

EUR/USD tries to recover, but reached $1.4390 only before was dragged down to a fresh session lows around $1.4265.

GBP/USD fell from $1.6310 to $1.6240. Later rate recovered to $1.6270.

USD/JPY printed lows around Y82.60 before it was back to Y82.90.

Canadian Foreign investment in Canadian securities comes at 12:30 GMT. Analysts predict it was $10.00B after $13.29B.



EUR/USD weakens

EUR/USD continues to get down and currently holds at frech session lows around $1.4282. Bids were earlier mentioned here. Tech support comes at $1.4270 to $1.4250. Stops noted on a break of $1.4240.


Gols retreats from the earlier Asian all time high of $1488.90, The metal has slipped back to $1480, where it found some bids from Indian names ahead of the May 6 Akshaya Tritiya festival. Gold trades around $1481.10

GBP/USD holds above lows

GBP/USD tested support into $1.6250 ($1.6252 76.4% $1.6244/80) but still remains above. Stops now seen placed on a break of $1.6240, which if triggered to open a deeper move toward $1.6235/25.

ECB, Jozef MAKUCH: We'll observe, be very vigilant, then we'll react
  • Still much uncertainty;
  • EMU growth has 'some level of sustainability';
  • Latest spread widening not caused by ECB monetary policy;
  • Not time to say anything about Greek debt restructuring;
  • Improvement of situation in Greece occurring, very slow;
  • Spain in a different situation.
ECB, Jozef MAKUCH: We'll observe, be very vigilant, then we'll react
  • Still much uncertainty;
  • EMU growth has 'some level of sustainability';
  • Latest spread widening not caused by ECB monetary policy;
  • Not time to say anything about Greek debt restructuring;
  • Improvement of situation in Greece occurring, very slow;
  • Spain in a different situation.
EUR/GBP under pressure

EUR/GBP fell under stg0.8800 as the euro comes under fresh pressure. Support were tested around stg0.8795/90. Some bids were mentioned there with stops noted below.

EU focus: Euro retreats, yen rises broadly

The euro extended losses on Monday after repeated attempts to break above a resistance level failed, placing focus on renewed worries about euro zone debt problems and giving the dollar a much needed reprieve after heavy selling in the past few weeks.
The euro fell as markets grew uneasy after Finnish voters handed the anti-euro True Finns party a crucial role in parliament and possibly into government.
Finland's parliament, unlike others in the euro zone, has the right to vote on EU requests for bailout funds, meaning it could hold up costly plans to shore up Portugal and bring stability to debt markets.

Still, market players expect the common currency to be supported by prospects of another interest rate hike, after data showed euro zone inflation climbed higher than expected in March to 2.7% year-on-year.
"In the end, I think what it probably boils down to is that there are still some long positions in the euro," said Koji Fukaya at Credit Suisse Securities.
The euro's failure to hold above $1.45 suggests that a bigger near-term pullback may be in store. Earlier, the euro briefly dipped below support near $1.4365. A clear break of that level and the April 6 intraday high of $1.4350 could open the way toward a deeper drop. Possible downside targets include $1.4263 (23.6% retracement of the euro's February to April rally), and $1.4104 (38.2% retracement of the same move).
Meanwhile, the yen rose broadly, at one point hitting its highest in more than two weeks against both the dollar and the euro.

USD/JPY tries to recover

USD/JPY pulled sharply lower to Y82.65 by further euro-yen sales following the Spanish auction results. Bids remain at Y82.50. Currently rate trades Y82.83.

ECB, Provopoulos: Greek debt restructuring not needed or wanted.
  • restructuring would have catastrophic consequences;
  • Greece GDP at -3% in 2011; could be worse;
  • 2011 unemployment in Greece to exceed 15%;
  • see 2011 average annual inflation at 3.25%;
  • economic policy must target inflation;
  • spending cuts should not target lower incomes;
  • state guarantees needed to boost bank liquidity;
  • Greece should increase fiscal adjustment effort.
EU focus: Euro retreats, yen rises broadly
  • restructuring would have catastrophic consequences;
  • Greece GDP at -3% in 2011; could be worse;
  • 2011 unemployment in Greece to exceed 15%;
  • see 2011 average annual inflation at 3.25%;
  • economic policy must target inflation;
  • spending cuts should not target lower incomes;
  • state guarantees needed to boost bank liquidity;
  • Greece should increase fiscal adjustment effort.

June WTI Crude went through support at $109.22 to a low of $109.09. Earlier oil rose to $109.95 in Asia. Further support is seen at $108.52 with resistance at $111.02. WTI currently trades $109.34/37.

AUD/USD retreats

AUD/USD backs to $1.0540 area after latest rally stalled at $1.0556. rate was dragged down amid EUR/USD failure to recover through $1.4355 as Spanish auction results disappoint. Bids remain towards the recent low of $1.0525.

FTSE -0.41% 5,972 , СAC -0.88% 3,939, DAX -0.63% 7,133
Fitch releases special report examining Ireland's public debt sustainability

Fitch says that under its baseline scenario, it expects Irish debt to peak at 116% of GDP in 2013/14. 
Fitch notes that Ireland's solvency is fragile and significant threats to an economic recovery and fiscal consolidation remain. 

Asian session: The euro fell

The euro fell for a second day against the dollar on speculation Greece will be unable to avoid a default even after officials said debt restructuring isn’t being discussed.
The single currency declined to a two-week low versus the yen on concern election gains for Finland’s euro-skeptic bloc will hinder regional efforts to assist ailing nations including Portugal. 
New Zealand’s dollar weakened against all its major counterparts after a report showed consumer prices in the nation rose less than economists forecast.
The True Finns will seek a majority that allows them to block the euro region’s bailout mechanism, Soini has said. The pro-Europe National Coalition led by Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen won 20.4 percent to become Finland’s biggest party for the first time.
New Zealand’s consumer prices rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter from three months earlier, the government said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 1 percent gain.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.4350.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased below a mark $1.6300.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased below mark Y83.00.

Forex: Weekly review

On Monday the yen gained, rising from an 11-month low against the euro, after an aftershock of Japan’s March 11 earthquake discouraged demand for higher-yielding assets.

The dollar remained lower versus the yen as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said the gain in food and fuel costs doesn’t warrant a reversal of monetary stimulus. 
The euro fell against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank’s recent interest-rate increase may make it harder for nations including Ireland and Portugal to contain debt. 
On Tuesday the yen and Swiss franc rose against most of their major counterparts after Japan raised the severity rating for the nuclear crisis that began last month and more earthquakes shook buildings in Tokyo, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.
The IMF lowered its 2011 forecast for Japanese growth to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in its World Economic Outlook report yesterday, citing effects from the disaster. 
Canada’s dollar slid versus the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada held its target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks at 1 percent, where it has been since September.
The pound slumped to its weakest against the euro in almost six months as the U.K.’s inflation unexpectedly slowed in March, discouraging the Bank of England from raising interest rates.
On Wednesday the euro edged to a 15-month high against the dollar.
The euro was lifted by reported demand from sovereign names looking to recycle dollar proceeds as the single currency remained supported by the prospect of further rate rises in the euro zone while policy stays loose in the United States and Japan.
On Thursday the euro erased its decline against the dollar on speculation the sovereign-debt crisis in nations including Portugal and Greece will be contained.
The dollar fell to its lowest level this month against the yen as U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose and producer prices advanced at a slower pace, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low. The euro slid earlier as concern Greece will have to restructure its debt pushed its bond yields to record highs.
On Friday the euro fell against the dollar and yen as concern the region’s debt crisis is getting worse pushed the extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of German debt to a record 1,000 basis points.
The yen rallied versus all of its major counterparts on demand for a refuge as China said inflation reached the fastest pace in more than two years, reviving concern the world’s second-largest economy will cool growth. The dollar dropped against the yen as a measure of inflation was lower than economists forecast.
U.S. consumer prices excluding volatile food and fuel costs rose 0.1 percent in March after an increase of 0.2 percent in the previous month, the Labor Department reported. That core figure increased 1.2 percent from a year earlier.

Stocks: Weekly review

Asian stocks fell, dragging the regional index toward its first loss in four weeks, after China reported that inflation in the world’s second-largest economy increased faster than estimated, increasing speculation that the government will need to do more to contain growth.
China Resources Land Ltd., a state-controlled developer, slid 2 percent in Hong Kong. Belle International Holdings Ltd., China’s largest retailer of women’s shoes, sank 1 percent. Fanuc Corp., the robot maker which counts Asia including China as its biggest market for sales, dropped 1.1 percent. Infosys Technologies Ltd., India’s second-largest software exporter, tumbled 9.6 percent in Mumbai after posting profit that missed estimates. BHP Billiton Ltd., the No. 1 mining company, slid 1 percent after metal prices declined for a fourth day.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent to 135.75 as of 8:17 p.m. in Tokyo. About twice as many shares declined as advanced. The measure is headed for a 0.6 percent decline this week, after rising for the past three weeks as Japanese companies resumed production after last month’s earthquake, and as an improving U.S. economy bolstered optimism the global recovery can be sustained.

European stocks fell for the first week in four as Alcoa Inc. and Google Inc. kicked off the U.S. earnings season with weaker-than-estimated results and Japan raised the severity rating of its nuclear crisis.
Kazakhmys Plc, Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer, and Antofagasta Plc, the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, sank more than 7 percent as the metal had the biggest weekly drop in a month. Commerzbank AG tumbled 16 percent as it sold conditional mandatory exchangeable notes to investors as part of a capital increase. National Bank of Greece SA fell 8.1 percent as the nation’s bonds declined.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.4 percent this week.

U.S. stocks rose, trimming a second straight weekly drop for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as higher-than-estimated data on consumer confidence and manufacturing bolstered optimism about the economy.
Merck & Co. and Kraft Foods Inc. helped pace gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Charles Schwab Corp., the largest independent brokerage by client assets, rallied 3.2 percent as earnings and sales exceeded analysts’ estimates. Google Inc. tumbled 7.4 percent to drag technology shares lower after earnings trailed projections following a jump in costs. Bank of America Corp. fell 1.7 percent as executives said profitability from lending may come under pressure.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent to 1,320.51 at 2 p.m. in New York, trimming its weekly loss to 0.6 percent. The Dow average climbed 69.89 points, or 0.6 percent, to 12,355.04.
Gauges of utility and health-care companies led the gains in the S&P 500. The index lost 1 percent this week through yesterday as sales at Alcoa Inc. missed estimates and the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the world’s largest economy. The gauge has still risen 4.5 percent in 2011 through yesterday amid government stimulus measures and higher-than-estimated corporate profits.
Stocks turned higher after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 69.6, higher than forecast, from March’s 67.5 reading that was the lowest since November 2009. The gauge was projected to rise to 68.8, according to the median forecast of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in April at the fastest rate in a year. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to 21.7 from 17.5 in March. Economists projected a reading of 17, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report showed industrial production increased more than forecast in March, led by a rebound in consumer goods manufacturing. Output rose 0.8 percent, the fifth straight gain, the Federal Reserve said.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said low inflation and high unemployment both call for continued easy U.S. monetary policy, and there’s little evidence of emerging asset bubbles. The consumer-price index rose 0.5 percent last month, in line with the economist forecasts.
Merck gained 2.4 percent to $34.66. The second-biggest U.S. drugmaker retained limited rights to a share of revenue from the arthritis drug Remicade after a settlement ended its dispute with partner Johnson & Johnson.
Charles Schwab advanced 3.2 percent to $18.80. Net income climbed to $243 million from $6 million in the year-earlier period, the San Francisco-based company said in a statement today. Last year, Schwab had $196 million in litigation expenses for a settlement related to its YieldPlus mutual fund. Adjusted earnings were 20 cents a share, compared with the average analyst forecast of 19 cents a share according to a survey.
Mattel Inc. climbed 3.8 percent to $26.71. The maker of Barbie dolls posted first-quarter earnings excluding some items that exceeded analysts’ average estimate by 6.4 percent, data show.
Google slumped 7.4 percent to $535.93. The world’s largest Internet-search company reported profit that missed analysts’ estimates after spending more on hiring and marketing to ward off competition from Facebook Inc. and Apple Inc. First-quarter net income climbed 18 percent to $2.3 billion, or $7.04 a share. Profit excluding some items was $8.08 a share, below the average $8.12 analyst estimate.
Bank of America fell 1.7 percent to $12.91. First- quarter earnings decreased 36 percent to $2.05 billion, or 17 cents a share. The bank also replaced its chief financial officer, citing family reasons. Results missed the average estimate for adjusted earnings of 26 cents a share from 28 analysts.
Higher oil prices and supply disruptions from Japan’s March 11 earthquake prompted JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Thomas Lee to cut his 2011 profit estimate for the S&P 500. Lee, the chief U.S. equity strategist, reduced his projection to $96.50 a share from $97.50, according to a report sent to clients yesterday. That compares with the average strategist estimate of $94.34 in a survey.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9100 (Apr 11 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8990 (Apr 13 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8960 (session high, Apr 15 high)
Current price: Chf0.8941
Support 1: Chf0.8900 (Mar 14 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8800 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of a historical low. The nearest support - Chf0,8900. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8800. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8960. Above is located Chf0.8990. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6430 (Apr 8-11 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6370 (around of Apr 14-15 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6330 (session high)
Current price: $1.6307
Support 1 : $1.6280 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6230 (around of Apr 12-13 low)
Support 3 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6300. The nearest support $1.6280. Below is possible testings of around $1.6230. The nearest resistance - area $1.6330. Above growth is possible to $1.6370. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4520 (Apr 12-13 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4420 (session high)
Current price: $1.4382
Support 1 : $1.4350/60 (Apr 6 high, Apr 14 low, session low)
Support 2 : $1.4240 (Apr 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.4190 (support line from Feb 14)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1,4350/60. Below losses are possible to $1.4240. The nearest resistance - $1.4420. Above growth is possible to $1,4520.

Schedule for today, Monday, Apr 18 2011:

12:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities $10.00B $13.29B
12:30 Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities $-1.98B
14:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence (Apr) Preliminar -11.0 -10.6

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