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18.01.2011
17:02
ECB WEBER: Inflation risks balanced, but upside risks could increase
  • EMU inflation over 2% not yet point to price stability danger;
  • Future price developments to be followed very closely;
  • Germany, EMU medium-term inflation still expected under 2%;
  • Data, surveys show inflation expectations firmly anchored ;
  • Expect Germany's 2011 public deficit at 2.5% of GDP;
  • See Germany's economy growing at more moderate pace;
  • Expanded long-term debt crisis mechanism sensible,necessary;
  • Euro at least as stable as D-mark and will remain so.
15:17
Dow +19.52 at 11806.90, Nasdaq -1.65 at 2753.23, S&P -0.68 at 1292.32

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are at the flat line after an upward move in the first few minutes of trade, but the Dow has pushed up to a modest gain. However, the Nasdaq 100 remains in the red with a 0.4% loss as shares of Apple (AAPL 335.74, -12.74) continue to act as a drag. Shares of AAPL are on the mend, though.
Financials remain under stiff pressure following disappointing results from Citigroup (C 4.94, -3.70); the sector is currently off by 0.6%. Airline stocks are under sharp pressure following a deep earnings miss from Delta Air Lines (DAL 12.38, -0.37); the Amex Airline Index is down 0.9%.

15:04
US: Jan NAHB/Wells Hsg Mkt Index unch at 16
14:30
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks will be weighed down by tech and bank shares at Tuesday's open following weak earnings from Citigroup, and worries about Apple CEO Steve Jobs' leave of absence.


Nasdaq-100 (COMP) futures, a proxy for the tech sector, slumped ahead of the opening bell. S&P 500 (SPX) futures were flat, and Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) moved slightly higher.
Last week ended with the Dow and the S&P posting their seventh straight week of gains. That's the longest streak for the Dow since the two months of consecutive gains that ended last April.
Companies: Investors will be keeping a close eye on Apple's stock Tuesday. Shares of the tech giant closed down 6.1% in Frankfurt, after Monday's announcement from Jobs. In U.S. pre-market trading Tuesday, shares of Apple dipped about 5%.
Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) will release quarterly results after the bell, and the maker of computers and personal electronics is expected to post a profit of $5.39 a share on $24.4 billion in revenue. Analysts and investors are also eagerly awaiting details on how many iPads Apple sold during the tablet's first holiday season.
Citigroup (C) posted earnings before the opening bell that missed expectations, while revenue fell in line with forecasts. The bank reported a profit of $1.3 billion, or 4 cents per share, on revenue of $18.4 billion.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected Citigroup to post earnings per share of 8 cents on $20.4 billion in revenue. Shares of Citi slipped 3% in pre-market trading.
Rival JPMorgan Chase (JPM) laid the foundation for strong bank earnings on Friday when it reported a 47% jump in fourth-quarter earnings to $4.8 billion, or $1.12 per share.
Delta (DAL) also reported quarterly earnings that missed forecasts, posting earnings of 19 cents per share -- compared to the 24 cents expected by analysts. Shares of the airline company dropped 3.5% before the opening bell.
IBM (IBM) is slated to report quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday, with analysts predicting the company earned $4.08 per share.
Economy: The New York Fed released its Empire Manufacturing Survey before the market open. The reading ticked up to 11.92 in January, which was in line with expectations.
World markets:

Oil for February delivery edged down 29 cents to $91.25 a barrel.
Gold futures for February delivery added $14 to $1,374.50 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.29% from 3.33% late Friday.

14:01
BANK OF CANADA HOLDS POLICY OVERNIGHT RATE AT 1.0%
13:31
US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 11.92 JAN VS 9.89 DEC
13:29
COMPANY NEWS: Citigroup (C) has released Q4 results this morning, reporting an EPS of 4c versus analysts estimates of 8c.
Citigroup (C) has reported Q4 revenue of $18.37 bln, with an allownace for loan losses for the period of $2.3 bln.
13:13
EU session review: Sterling powered by jump in inflation

Data released
09:30     UK     HICP (December)    1.0%    0.7%    0.4%
09:30     UK     HICP (December) Y/Y    3.7%    3.4%    3.3%
09:30     UK     HICP ex EFAT (December) Y/Y    2.9%    2.7%    2.7%
09:30     UK     Retail prices (December)    0.7%    0.8%    0.4%
09:30     UK     Retail prices (December) Y/Y    4.8%    4.8%    4.7%
09:30     UK     RPI-X (December) Y/Y    4.7%    4.8%    4.7%
10:00     Germany     ZEW economic expectations index (January)    15.4    5.8    4.3

The biggest ever month-on-month rise in UK consumer inflation pushed sterling back above $1.60 against the dollar on Tuesday as investors brought forward their expectations of the next rise in interest rates.
Britain’s consumer price index was driven to an eight-month high of 3.7% in December, from 3.3% in November, data revealed on Tuesday. The month-on-month increase of 1% was the largest on record.
The annual number was ahead of the Bank of England’s forecast of 3.2% and was driven by rising oil and fuel costs and food bills. Last month the Bank left interest rates at the historic low of 0.5%.
“There is increased speculation on the markets about a first rate rise in the UK in mid-2011,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank. He added, however, that the economic outlook remained too uncertain for the central bank to make any snap decision. “We still do not assume that the Bank will raise rates this year.”
Minutes from the last monetary policy committee meeting revealed there remained scant support for near-term rate increases, with only one member, Andrew Sentance, calling for rates to be lifted.
The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday.
Euro zone finance ministers met on Monday but made no firm decision about possible additional crisis measures, turning market attention to the Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers due to be held later on Tuesday.

EUR/USD rose from $1.3250 to $1.3430 and set stable within the $1.3380/$1.3410 range.

GBP/USD rose from $1.5860 to $1.6060 before retreated to $1.6000.

USD/JPY remained within the Y82.30/60 range.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the NY Fed Empire State Survey, where the index is expected to rise to a reading of 14.0 in January after see-sawing in the previous two months. Annual revisions will be included with this month's data.
At 1400GMT, the Bank of Canada makes it's interest rate announcement and economists agree on unchanged rates.
Further US data includes the TIC data at 1400GMT, the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index at 1430GMT, the Housing Market Index from the NAHB at 1500GMT and the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index at 1530GMT. Late US data then sees the weekly ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index at 2200GMT.



12:30
US OUTLOOK:

JPM lowered 4Q10 forecast for GDP growth by about one half percent, and raised 1Q11 GDP forecast by a similar amount. Now sees Q4 +2.9% and Q1 +4%.

12:14
CRUDE TECHS:

WTI trading sideways following break above bull-flag on Jan 11. Measured move still targets around $95 as daily studies continue to point higher. Initial  resistance seen as the Jan 12 high at $92.39 and further resistance seen as the daily Bollinger band top at $92.88. Initial support seen from the 21-DMA at $90.64.

11:52
EU focus: Euro inches up but rescue plan worries cast pall

The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as the arrest of a slide in Chinese shares boosted risk appetite, but its gains were limited by uncertainty over whether officials will agree to beef up a euro zone safety fund this week.
The euro dipped initially but later pared its losses against the dollar as Chinese shares showed signs of stabilising after the previous day's 3 percent slide, lending some support to risky assets.

Euro zone finance ministers met on Monday but made no firm decision about possible additional crisis measures, turning market attention to the Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers due to be held later on Tuesday.
"What indications we have heard from European officials over the past several days is that they just don't feel the same sense of urgency that the market does," said Todd Elmer, currency strategist with Citi. "I think for the time being that means the euro is likely to trade lower," Elmer said, adding that the euro could dip back towards $1.30 in coming weeks.
Europe's safety net fund can borrow on the market with euro zone government guarantees of up to 440 billion euros, but analysts say a new package of measures to tackle the crisis is both essential and urgent.
The euro also edged higher against the Australian dollar but eased on other crosses.
The euro's recent failure to break above its mid-December peak of $1.3500 suggests that the single currency may remain stuck in its range seen over the past month of $1.3500 to $1.2860.
Immediate support is seen in the $1.3230 area, a level representing the 38.2% retracement of last week's 4% rally.

11:25
EUR/GBP retreats again

EUR/GBP tracks the euro rise, as cable meets resistance on approach to $1.5400. The cross retreats to current stg0.8375, a break higher to open a move on toward stg0.8415/20.

11:15
EU JUNCKER: Panic possible without comprehensive crisis response
  • Don't have tons of time for comprehensive crisis plan
  • Markets calmer now but mustn't take this for granted
  • ECB, asian support contributing to current market calm
  • Should hurry and finalize permanent rescue mechanism
  • Consensus that greece repayment term to be lengthened


10:53
EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD was seen edging higher into release of ZEW, the stronger than forecast 15.4 level in the headline release taking rate from $1.3400 to $1.3430 as number released, before dropping back under $1.3400 on profit take sales. Rate currently trades around $1.3382.

10:26
GBP/USD refreshed highs

GBP/USD extends rally to $1.6060 after the release of stronger than forecast Germany ZEW. Next cable resisitance seen up at $1.6090/00. Rate currently trades around $1.6045.

10:01
GERMANY: ZEW; Jan economic sentiment index +15.4 vs Dec +4.3
09:55
GBP/USD spikes above $1.6040 to $1.6054 on release of above forecast inflation data, from around $1.5975.Next resistance seen at $1.6090/00.
09:34
UK: Dec RPIX +0.7% m/m; +4.7% y/y
09:33
UK: Dec RPI +0.7% m/m; +4.8% y/y
09:32
UK: Dec core CPI +0.7% m/m; +2.9% y/y
09:31
UK: Dec CPI +1% m/m; +3.7% y/y
09:30
DUE UP: UK December inflation data is due at 0930GMT with median +0.7% m/m, 3.4% y/y with core-CPI at 2.7% y/y.
09:11
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3220, $1.3250, $1.3255, $1.3260, $1.3325
USD/JPY Y81.70, Y82.50, YY84.00
EUR/JPY Y108.65, Y112.50
GBP/USD $1.5885, $1.5750, $1.6125
USD/CHF Chf0.9600
AUD/USD $0.9850
USD/NZD NZ$0.7655
USD/CAD C$1.3000

08:47
Asian session: The euro weakened

Data:
04:30 Japan Industrial output (November) final 1.0%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (November) final Y/Y 5.8%

The euro weakened for a second day against the dollar and the yen on speculation an agreement among European finance ministers will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis.
The single currency fell versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts as the Euro-area ministers indicated after a meeting yesterday they don’t face immediate pressure to tame the crisis, while pledging to boost the safety net for debt-strapped nations. 
Australia’s dollar dropped against all the main currencies on speculation China’s central bank will take more steps to tighten monetary policy, curbing demand for higher- yielding assets.
The dollar advanced against 12 of its 16 most-traded counterparts before a government report that economists said will show U.S. building permits increased last month.
Building permits rose to a 555,000 annual pace in December from 544,000 in November, according to a separate  survey before the Commerce Department report tomorrow.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,3260. Become stronger above a mark $1,3300 later.
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,5930.
USD/JPY: the pair  decreased in around Y82,40.
The EU finance ministers meet in Brussels today and the monthly IEA oil market report is due at 0900GMT. German data at 1000GMT includes the January ZEW survey, where the expectations and conditions index are expected to both improve to 8.4 and 83.2.
UK data starts at 0930GMT with the UK DCLG House Price Index and also UK December inflation data due. CPI is expected to rise 0.7% m/m, 3.4% y/y with core-CPI at 2.7% y/y. Meanwhile, RPI is expected to gain 0.8% m/m, 4.8% y/y with RPIX at 0.7% m/m and 4.8% y/y.
US data starts at 1330GMT with the NY Fed Empire State Survey, where the index is expected to rise to a reading of 14.0 in January after see-sawing in the previous two months. Annual revisions will be included with this month's data. At 1400GMT, the Bank of Canada makes it's interest rate announcement and economists agree on unchanged rates. 
They all believe some of Canada's downside risks to growth will be alleviated by the new United States fiscal package for stimulation of that economy and thus imports from Canada, but that the BOC will prefer to wait and see.
Further US data includes the TIC data at 1400GMT, the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index at 1430GMT, the Housing Market Index from the NAHB at 1500GMT and the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index at 1530GMT. Late US data then sees the weekly ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index at 2200GMT.

08:43
Forex: Monday's review

The euro fell against the dollar, snapping a five-day gain, on concern the region’s debt crisis will worsen even as European finance ministers meet today to hammer out a new strategy to stem the contagion.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on radio station Deutschlandfunk that the nation opposes increasing the size of the euro area’s bailout fund. 
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said European financial markets remain unstable because of concern about the long-running crisis.
Australia’s dollar dropped to a six-week low versus New Zealand’s on concern record flooding will curtail economic growth. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1,3300.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,5960, decreased in around $1,5880 later.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,30-Y83,00.
The EU finance ministers meet in Brussels today and the monthly IEA oil market report is due at 0900GMT. German data at 1000GMT includes the January ZEW survey, where the expectations and conditions index are expected to both improve to 8.4 and 83.2.
UK data starts at 0930GMT with the UK DCLG House Price Index and also UK December inflation data due. CPI is expected to rise 0.7% m/m, 3.4% y/y with core-CPI at 2.7% y/y. Meanwhile, RPI is expected to gain 0.8% m/m, 4.8% y/y with RPIX at 0.7% m/m and 4.8% y/y.
US data starts at 1330GMT with the NY Fed Empire State Survey, where the index is expected to rise to a reading of 14.0 in January after see-sawing in the previous two months. Annual revisions will be included with this month's data. At 1400GMT, the Bank of Canada makes it's interest rate announcement and economists agree on unchanged rates. 
They all believe some of Canada's downside risks to growth will be alleviated by the new United States fiscal package for stimulation of that economy and thus imports from Canada, but that the BOC will prefer to wait and see.

Further US data includes the TIC data at 1400GMT, the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index at 1430GMT, the Housing Market Index from the NAHB at 1500GMT and the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index at 1530GMT. Late US data then sees the weekly ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index at 2200GMT.

08:33
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks fluctuated as China- related companies fell on concern the country’s economic growth will slow, while chip shares rose for a second day after Intel Corp. forecast sales that may exceed analyst estimates.
Komatsu Ltd., a machinery maker that receives 17 percent of its sales from China, sank 1 percent. Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan’s second-biggest operator of dry-bulk ships, dropped 1.1 percent. Tokyo Electron Ltd., the world’s No. 2 maker of semiconductor equipment, rose 3.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index in China, Japan’s top export destination, lost 2.6 percent after the central bank ordered lenders on Jan. 14 to boost reserves.
The Topix has risen 3.3 percent this year, driving the average price of shares in the index to 16 times estimated earnings on average, near the highest level since August.
The gauge sank 1 percent in 2010 as the yen at its strongest annual average level against the dollar since 1971 dimmed the outlook for export earnings, and as Europe’s debt crisis, China’s steps to curb inflation and concern about U.S. growth damped confidence in a global recovery.
Most European stocks declined as the region’s finance chiefs began meeting to work on a new strategy to contain the sovereign-debt crisis.
ARM Holdings Plc, which designs chips for Apple Inc.’s iPhone, slid 3 percent after Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs was granted a medical leave of absence. Banco Santander SA led a measure of banks lower. Smiths Group Plc jumped 7.7 percent after the world’s biggest maker of airport-security scanners rejected an offer for its Smiths Medical unit.
The benchmark Stoxx 600 advanced 0.1 percent to 284.06 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London as three stocks fell for each two that gained. The gauge climbed 1 percent last week as investors speculated that European leaders will increase their efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis.
National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.2 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 0.3 percent and Germany’s DAX was little changed. Spain’s IBEX 35 tumbled 1 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB retreated 0.5 percent.

08:20
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.50 (Jan 11-12 high)
Resistance 2:Y83,10 (Jan 14 high)
Resistance 1:Y82,75 (session high)
Current price: Y82.45
Support 1:Y82.30 (50,0 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)
Support 3:Y82.00 (61,8 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)
Support 3:Y80.90 (Jan 3 low)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support - Y82,30. Below losses  are possible to Y82.00. The nearest resistance - Y83,75. Above growth is possible to Y83.10. 

08:18
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 highh)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9765/85 (Jan 13 and 11 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9765/85 (Jan 14 high)
Current price: Chf0.9609
Support 1: Chf0.9600 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)
Support 2: Chf0.9540 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)
Support 3: Chf0.9480 (61,8 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)
Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest resistance Chf0,9765/85. Above is  located Chf0.9850. The nearest support Chf0,9600/10. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9540.

08:16
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6100 (Nov 19 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6000 (psychological mark)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5955 (Jan 17 high)
Current price: $1.5936
Support 1 : $1.5870 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5810 (Jan 14 low)
Support 3 : $1.5740 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5400-$ 1,5955)
Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - $1,5955. Above  growth is possible to $1,6000. The nearest support - $1,5870. Below  decrease is possible to $1.5740.

08:11
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3790 (Nov 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3500 (Dec 14 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3460 (Jan 14 high)
Current price: $1.3317
Support 1 : $1.3230 (38,2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.3460, Jan 17 low)
Support 2 : $1.3165 (50.0 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3460)
Support 3 : $1.3100 (61,8 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3460)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support - $1,3230. Below  decreaseis possible to $1.3165. The nearest resistance - $1,3460. Above growth is possible  to $1,3500. 

07:13
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jan'18'2011:

00:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence 45 51 53
00:01 UK RICS House Price Balance -44% -43% -39%
04:30 Japan Industrial output final +1,0% +1,0%
04:30 Japan Industrial output final Y/Y +5,8% +5,8%
09:30 UK HICP, m/m +0,4% +0,6% 
09:30 UK HICP, Y/Y +3,3% +3,3%
09:30 UK HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y +2,7%
09:30 UK Retail Price Index, m/m +0,4%
09:30 UK Retail prices, Y/Y +4,7%
09:30 UK RPI-X, Y/Y +4,7%
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment 4,3 5,8
13:30 USA NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index 10,6 12,5
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 1,00% 1,00%
14:00 USA Total Net TIC Flows 27,6
14:00 USA Net Long-term TIC Flows 7,5
23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index  0,5% 0,5%

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