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Dow +47.65 at 12009.17, Nasdaq -3.27 at 2620.43, S&P +4.17 at 1271.81

Stocks continue to drift lower. The downward grind has left the three major equity averages to trade at new session lows.
Amid the stock market's weakening, the Volatility Index is climbing so that it is now down 3% for the session. Just yesterday it set a near three-month high.
Treasuries have started to tick higher in response to the recent action among stocks. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is at a session high, although it is still down a single tick.

American focus:

The euro gained versus the dollar by the most in two weeks after German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to compromise and work with the European Central Bank on a debt plan for Greece.
Currencies of commodity-exporting countries rose as stocks advanced, boosting appetite for higher-yielding assets. The MSCI World (MXWO) Index of equities added 0.8 percent as Merkel retreated from German demands that bondholders be forced to shoulder a “substantial” share of a Greek rescue, easing concern the region’s sovereign debt problems will worsen.
“The aim is involvement of the private sector on a voluntary basis, and for that the Vienna Initiative, as it’s called, is a good basis,” Merkel said. “I think we can achieve something on this basis.” A rollover involves reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds in new securities.
Adopting the Vienna plan, used during the financial crisis of 2009 for eastern European units of banks to maintain their exposure, would involve encouraging creditors to roll over expiring bonds, buying time for Greece until its austerity program shows results or until a permanent rescue fund kicks in from mid-2013.
Greek bonds rallied and European stocks reversed losses as attention shifted to Athens, where Prime Minister George Papandreou overhauled his Cabinet as he struggles to gain parliamentary approval for a 78 billion euro ($111.5 billion) five-year package of budget cuts and asset sales by July.
“The latest events seem to have eased some of the immediate market stresses concerning Greece and the periphery,” said Robert Lynch, head of currency strategy for HSBC Holdings Plc in New York. “Not only did it relieve downward pressure on the euro, but it’s also allowing some semblance of increased risk appetite back into the market.”
The euro-area’s currency fell earlier on concern a potential Greek debt default may spread to other indebted nations in the 17-member bloc. The euro reversed losses after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said a “breakthrough” had been made on the Greek debt crisis, following a meeting with Merkel, who said she’ll work with the European Central Bank to avoid disrupting markets.
The dollar remained lower after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment was lower than forecast in June, while an index of leading economic indicators rose in May.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 71.8 from 74.3 in May. Economists forecast a reading of 74.
The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.8 percent after a revised 0.4 percent decline in April, the New York-based group said today. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent gain.

Dow +59.45 at 12020.97, Nasdaq +2.22 at 2625.92, S&P +5.63 at 1273.27

A flurry of selling pressure has undercut stocks. The effort took the Nasdaq down to the neutral line, but it has yet to cross into the red. Meanwhile, both the Dow and S&P 500 have managed to hold on to modest gains.
Treasuries have had a hard time attracting support this session. That has kept the benchmark 10-year Note stuck in the red with a slight loss; its yield, at 2.95%, is at the mid-point of its weekly range.

ECB BONELLO: Indicated July hike, information not changed
  • Mon pol is still accommodative; real rates are negative;
  • Risks to global and EMU recovery not negligible now;
  • See higher input prices moving along production chain;
  • Not seen 'excessively large' increase in wage demands
ECB BONELLO: Greek default soon unlikely if IMF releases tranche
  • Stakes are very high for greece,euro area and beyond;
  • Greek fallout could be of 'broad geographical scope';
  • Default may hit fin systems,have impact on recovery;
  • Key to restore confidence in EMU as soon as possible;
  • ECB won't take part in debt rollover--even if voluntary;
  • Hard to assess what results in credit, rating event;
  • ECB exercised mandate very flexibly, must draw line;
  • Demands to do more an encroachment on ECB independence;
  • Effective counter-measures can be taken only by govts;
  • Need reliable backstop; larger EFSF is one option;
  • Greek cbank may give ELA to banks even if default
Dow +71.75 at 12033.27, Nasdaq +3.86 at 2627.56, S&P +6.96 at 1274.60

Choppy action has eaten into the broad market's gain. Still, stocks are up a few points for the week. That's something that hasn't happened since April.
The Nasdaq is having a harder time holding on to its gain, however. Sellers have sent the tech-rich index to a session low, where it has been left to cling to a fractional gain. For the week, though, the Nasdaq is still down about 17 points, or less than 1%.


CRT says the softer Jun Michigan confidence reading also had "more benign near-term inflation expectations" as 1y infl expectations slipped 0.1pt to 4.0%. May LEI "came in higher than
forecast at +0.8%... Interest rate spread was the largest contributor at +0.32% and consumer expectations at +0.23%.

Dow +101.31 at 12062.30, Nasdaq +13.90 at 2637.80, S&P +11.10 at 1278.74
Conference Board: LEI resumed an uptrend and US economy will likely grow thru summer and fall.
US: May Leading Indicators +0.8%
US: June prelim U-Mich consumer sentiment 71.8 vs 74.3 May
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.4025, $1.4100, $1.4140, $1.4300
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y81.00, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y115.00, Y115.40, Y117.00
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100, $1.6310
USD/CHF Chf0.8450, Chf0.8500
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0625

Before the bell: Stocks may open higher

U.S. stocks futures point for an early rebound Friday, as oil prices slipped and investors awaited another economic data.
Oil prices, which sank 2% in earlier trading, may also give markets a boost Friday.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, as weakness in the tech sector countered stronger-than-expected reports on the housing market and unemployment.

Economy: After the market open, the University of Michigan will release its initial June consumer sentiment index at 13:55 GMT. Economists are looking for the index to fall to a reading of 73.5, from May's reading of 74.3.
The Conference Board will release its report on Leading Economic Indicators for May at 14:00 GMT. Economists forecast a decline of 0.4%, following a 0.3% drop in the previous month.
Companies: Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) tumbled 18% in premarket trading, after the BlackBerry-maker slashed its full-year earnings outlook by 30% and announced layoff plans after the market closed Thursday.
Capital One (COF, Fortune 500) plans to acquire ING Direct. But after the announcement, Moody's warned of a possible downgrade and said it is reviewing Capital One's financial strength and long-term ratings. Shares of the bank fell more than 1% before the market open.

CHF rises

EUR/CHF holds at Chf1.2108 with option for today's NY cut at Chf1.2100. USD/CHF has expiries at Chf0.8450 and Chf0.8500. Rate currently trades around Chf0.8480.

EUR/USD trades at $1.4262 following the sales at $1.4300. Now offers extend to $1.4320.
Canada: Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Apr) -0.1%
EUR/USD corrects

EUR/USD challenged $1.4295/00 before position adjustmen brought the rate down to current $1.4256. Earlier rate was lifted amid speculation the Eurogroup to reach a responsible deal for Greece on Sunday.

EU session review: Sarkozy lifts Euro

Data released:
09:00     EU(17)     Trade balance (April) unadjusted, bln     -4.1    -2.1    2.8
09:00     EU(17)     Trade balance (April) adjusted, bln     -2.9    -    -2.2 (0.9)

The euro gained for a second day following a meeting of French President Nicolas Sarkozy with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, when Sarkozy said a “breakthrough” had been made on the Greek debt crisis.
Sarkozy told that a solution involving holders of Greek bonds in a new rescue package for the indebted nation has been found. The chancellor said Germany would work with the ECB on the compromise deal.
The euro-area currency fell earlier today on concern a Greek debt default could spread to other indebted nations in the bloc.

EUR/USD rose from $1.4120 to a new session high on $1.4300. Later rate retreated to $1.4277.

GBP/USD increased from $1.6090 to $1.6185 before corrected to $1.6168.

USD/JPY fell to session lows around Y80.20, then recovered to Y80.36.

US data starts at 1355GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a reading of 74.5 in early-June after rising sharply to 74.3 in May.


EUR/GBP at session highs

EUR/GBP continues продолжает свой рост и сейчас кросс пишет новые сессионные максимумы на stg0.8831 на фоне возобновившегося роста евровалюты. Рост кросса ускорился после преодоления stg0.8800. Ближайшее сопротивление - на stg0.8840 (максимумы 14 июня).

EUR/JPY following euro

EUR/JPY retreats following the euro weakness. Cross trades at Y114.56 after printed session high on Y114.77. Bids were mentioned at Y114.25/40, stronger - ahead of Y114.00. Further support comes at earlier lows on Y113.70.

EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD retreats and currently holds under $1.4280. Earlier rate tested resistance/offers between $1.4285/90. Stronge offers come at $1.4300. Initial support is near hourly lows on $1.4210/20.

ECB, Bini Smaghi: Price stability is ECB's "clear objective"
EU focus: Euro recovers from 3-week low

In Europe euro recovered from 3-week lows amid unconfirmed rumors that a new Greek aid package of E150bln could be agreed. Market talks a new aid includes E80bln of a new money, E40-50bn from privatizations, E30-40bn from rollover of Greek bonds.
But the euro remains under pressure relative to the yen.

But earlier rate fell on concerns how policy makers will tackle Greece's debt crisis with no apparent solution in sight.
Germany's Merkel said today there won't be a decision on Greek aid till September, but she is very optimistic about the Greek problems solution. Also she mentioned that Germany and France will do everything for saving euro.
Nowotny said there is a need to make Greece decision faster as Greece situation makes economy uncertain.
Friday’s session is likely to be dominated by any further news from talks regarding Greece and also any developments out of Athens on the political manoeuvring.

GERMANY, Merkel: Fore saving euro Germany and France will do everything


  • supports Greek PM;
  • till September there won't be a decision on Greek aid;
  • very optimistic about the Greek problems solution.


ECB, Nowotny: there is a need to make Greece decision faster
  • Greece situation makes economy uncertain;
  • Germany GDP may come at +2.5% in 2012 and +3.4% in 2011;
  • Global economy normalizing.
GREECE: Market talks Greece may get E150bln new aid package
  • E80bln new money
  • E40-50bln from privatizations
  • E30-40bln from Greek bonds
EUR/USD rises on rumors

EUR/USD continues to hold higher, printing session high on $1.4244. Rate earlier broke key resistance at $1.4240, but failed to set above. Next resistance seen between $1.4250/60 ahead of stronger area between $1.4280/85.

EUR/USD rose on rumour of the E150bln new aid package for Greece, the breakdown heard is:

E80bln new money
E40-50bln from privatizations
E30-40bln from rollover of Greek bonds

FTSE 5,648 -0.90%, CAC 3,751 -1.08%, DAX 7,056 -0.76%
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.4025, $1.4100, $1.4140, $1.4300
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y81.00, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y115.00, Y115.40, Y117.00
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100, $1.6310
USD/CHF Chf0.8450, Chf0.8500
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0625

EMU Apr sa trade balance -E2.9bn
Asian session: The euro fell

The euro fell for a third day versus the yen and slid against the dollar before European leaders meet to discuss the Greek debt crisis today amid concern a default would risk spreading contagion to other countries in the region.
Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker said a “haircut” for holders of Greek securities would have unpredictable knock-on effects. 
Australia’s dollar fell as Asian stocks declined, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets.

EUR/USD: the pair  shown low in $1.4130 area.
GBP/USD: the pair  shown low in $1.6100 area.
USD/JPY: the pair  decreased in area Y80.50.

It is a quiet end to the week - in terms of the European data calendar at least. European data starts at 0600GMT with ACEA May new car registrations, although of more interest will be EMU trade data for April, which isreleased at 0900GMT at the same time as EMU construction output, also for April. At 1300GMT, the International Monetary Fund releases it's quarterly update of the World Economic Outlook.
US data starts at 1355GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a reading of 74.5 in early-June after rising sharply to 74.3 in May. 

Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei  9,351  -0.64% 
Hang Seng 21,658  -1.34% 
S&P/ASX  4,485   +0.13% 
Shanghai Composite  2,643  -0.81%

Forex: Thursday's review

The euro pared its decline against the dollar after reaching a three-week low amid speculation an agreement between the European Union and the International Monetary Fund may allow Greece to avoid a debt default.
Europe’s shared currency erased most of its earlier declines after European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said Greece will be able to get funding from the EU and International Monetary Fund in July as long as it enacts budget cuts. The IMF backed Rehn in a statement. The yen strengthened against the dollar after a report showed an unexpected slowdown in Philadelphia area manufacturing.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will reshuffle his cabinet and seek to win a confidence vote today after attempts to garner opposition support for an austerity plan failed.
EU Commissioner Rehn said “close contact” with the IMF made him confident of an accord at a weekend crisis meeting to pay out 12 billion euros ($17 billion) in July as long as Greece enacts new budget cuts.
Greece’s immediate concern is to obtain 8.7 billion euros from Europe and 3.3 billion euros from the IMF in July, promised as part of last year’s precedent-setting aid package to stave off the euro area’s first default.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet tomorrow in Berlin, with pressure increasing for the leaders to reach an accord on a rescue package for Greece. European Union finance ministers agreed on June 14 to convene again on June 19 after they failed to reconcile a German-led push for bondholders to shoulder part of the cost of a new plan for Greek aid. 
EUR/USD: the pair shown low in $1.4070 area. Later the rate grown and finished session above $1.4200.
GBP/USD: the pair  shown low in $1.6070 area, then grown in $1.6160  area.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in Y80.60  area.

 It is a quiet end to the week - in terms of the European data calendar at least. European data starts at 0600GMT with ACEA May new car registrations, although of more interest will be EMU trade data for April, which isreleased at 0900GMT at the same time as EMU construction output, also for April. At 1300GMT, the International Monetary Fund releases it's quarterly update of the World Economic Outlook.
US data starts at 1355GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a reading of 74.5 in early-June after rising sharply to 74.3 in May. 

Stocks: Thursday's review

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average fell by the most in three months as the euro weakened against the yen on mounting concern Greece will default on its debt and after reports showed the U.S. economy is cooling.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s largest carmaker, lost 1.7 percent. Mitsubishi Corp. (8058), Japan’s biggest commodities trader, retreated 2.8 percent after crude and metal prices dropped. Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan’s largest developer by sales, slumped 3.6 percent after the supply of new condominiums offered in Tokyo rose less-than-expected following March’s earthquake.
European stocks fell to a three- month low as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he will reshuffle his cabinet and seek a confidence vote.
Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) led basic-resource shares lower as metal prices fell. Lenzing AG (LNZ) dropped 2.7 percent as the Austrian maker of textile fibers and its majority shareholder B&C Industrieholding GmbH sold about 619 million euros ($877 million) of shares. Carrefour SA (CA) tumbled 3.5 percent as UBS AG recommended selling shares of the French retailer.
European Union talks to forge a new bailout to prevent the first euro-area default stalled. The impasse over the aid formula and speculation that a government shakeup would disrupt the passage of budget cuts and asset sales sent Greek bonds and the euro plunging yesterday.
The International Monetary Fund today said it is ready to continue supporting Greece if the economic measures agreed upon as part of a bailout package with the European Union are adopted.
European stocks maintained declines today even after reports showed that housing starts in the U.S. increased more than forecast in May and fewer Americans than predicted filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
U.S. stocks erased gains, threatening to wipe out the 2011 advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid concern large banks will need to increase reserves to comply with proposed international regulations.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. retreated at least 1.5 percent, wiping out a 1.1 percent gain for financial shares in the S&P 500, as people familiar with the matter said international financial supervisors are considering capital surcharges of as much as 3.5 percentage points on the largest banks if they grow bigger. Early gains in the market followed data showing jobless claims decreased more than forecast and housing starts topped economists’ estimates.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent to 1,263.42 at 2:08 p.m. in New York after rallying as much as 0.7 percent earlier. The drop trimmed the benchmark gauge’s year-to- date advance to less than 0.5 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 23.72 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,920.99.
A gauge of 82 banks, insurers and investment firms has slumped 8 percent this year for the worst drop among the 10 major industries in the S&P 500. A subgroup of lenders has lost 12 percent, the second-biggest decline among 24 groups, amid weakening economic growth, growing regulatory scrutiny and reduced profitability from lending because of low interest rates.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8680 (61.8 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8330)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8610 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8330)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8550 (Jun 15-16 high)
Current price: Chf0.8501
Support 1: Chf0.8470 (Jun 16 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8440 (Jun 15 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8420 (МА (200) for Н1)
Comments: the pair become stronger. The immediate resistance Chf0.8550. Above is located Chf0.8610. The immediate support - Chf0,8470. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8440. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6270 (high of american session on Jun 15)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6230 (Jun 16 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6170 (session high)
Current price: $1.6113
Support 1 : $1.6100 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6070 (May 24 and Jun 16 low)
Support 3 : $1.5940 (low of March)
Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1.6100. Below decrease is possible to $1.6070. The immediate resistance - $1.6170. Above growth is possible to $1.6230. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4370 (resistance line from Jun 9)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4310 (high of american session on Jun 15)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4230 (area of session high)
Current price: $1.4144
Support 1 : $1.4070 (May 26 low)
Support 2 : $1.4000 (psychological mark)
Support 3 : $1.3970 (low of May)

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1,4070. Below losses are possible to $1.4000. The immediate resistance $1.4230. Above growth is possible to $1,4310. 

Schedule for today, Friday, Jun 17'2011:

09:00 EU(17)  Trade balance (April) unadjusted, bln -2.1 2.8

09:00 EU(17) Trade balance (April) adjusted, bln - 0.9
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (June) preliminary 74.5 74.3
14:00 USA Leading indicators (May) 0.2% -0.3%

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