NDAQ The Nasdaq Omx Gro... 23.77 +1.24 +5.51%
AKS AK Steel Holding C... 15.24 +0.83 +5.76%
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 105.91 +5.17 +5.13%
MOT Motorola Inc 8.85 +0.38 +4.50%
FLIR FLIR Systems Inc 28.17 +0.95 +3.49%
VRSN Verisign Inc 34.01 -3.00 -8.11%
DFS Discover Financial... 18.46 -0.67 -3.50%
DNR Denbury Resources ... 18.69 -0.40 -2.10%
NBR Nabors Industries ... 21.80 -0.51 -2.29%
SRCL Stericycle Inc 78.28 -1.36 -1.71%
The market has been hovering around highs of the day, consolidating the gains made in the reversal earlier in the day. As the afternoon progresses, it will be interesting to watch how the S&P 500 handles its second level technical resistance at 1244/1246 (session high 1243.65). A break through would put the index at 52-week highs. Keep in mind that tomorrow is the quadruple witching December options expiration -- the last of the year -- which could be having an impact as traders hedge expiring positions.
The equity market has seen a substantial turnaround this morning, with the Dow approximately 70 points off of its session lows. The market gave up an early bid in the first half hour of the session, sinking to lows right in front of the Philly Fed reading at 10:00 ET. The S&P held technical support around the 1232/1233 level, and the Philly Fed came in much better than expected, helping the market to reverse off those lows. Then after some consolidation, stocks surged higher as the dollar fell back to the flat line. The latest bid in stocks also follows the Fed's latest Permanent Open Market Operation, through which it purchased $6.78 bln of 2013/2014 maturities (dealers looked to sell $22.08 bln).
Tomorrow is the quadruple witching December options expiration -- the last of the year -- which could be having an impact as traders hedge expiring positions.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were down slightly ahead of the opening bell. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance.
On Wednesday, stocks declined as investors weighed worries about a possible Spain downgrade with relatively upbeat U.S. inflation data.
The Senate approved the controversial $858-billion tax package Wednesday, despite a series of objections from both parties. The measure, which passed 81-19, now advances to the House.
Most investors expect the compromise to pass largely intact. Markets will likely get a bit of a boost as the deal is formalized but "unless there is a wholesale shift and it goes into this huge battle," markets won't move too much, said Dan Cook, CEO of IG Markets.
Stocks have managed to eke out gains over the past few sessions, and are up 5% for the month.
Economy: The government's weekly report on initial claims for jobless benefits is expected to show a modest uptick to 425,000, from 421,000 in the prior week.
On the housing front, government figures are expected to show that initial construction of single family homes and requests for building permits both rose in November.
Housing starts are forecast to have risen to an annual rate of 545,000, from 519,000; while permits are forecast to climb to 560,000, from 550,000 in October.
Positive economic data will likely push stocks slightly higher, according to Cook, but at this time of year trading volume is thin with so many investors packing up and heading out for the holidays. "You see big exaggerated moves and that is something traders want to watch out for."
Companies: Federal Express reported third-quarter earnings and sales that missed forecsasts. FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) earned $1.16 a share, missing estimates by 15 cents. Revenue rose 12% to $9.63 billion but that also missed analysts forecasts, which had called for $9.7 billion.
The shipping company, which had its busiest shipping day Monday, reigned in its forecast for the current quarter but raised its outlook for fiscal 2011. Shares of FedEx slid 4% in premarket trading.
BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIMM) and Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) are on deck after the market closes.
Spot gold finding resistance around $1386 now as price turns sharply lower to $1380, with Silver also dropping through $29.00 to $28.98 having failed repeatedly at $29.21.
AUD/USD wades through offers $0.9890/00 to post a day's high of $0.9904 despite sales from real money and corporates, before drifting back to $0.9889/91.
08:30 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Services (Dec) Preliminar 58.3 59.1 59.2
08:30 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (Dec) Preliminar 60.9 58.2 58.1
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
09:00 European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Services (Dec) Preliminar 53.7 55.3 55.4
09:00 European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (Dec) Preliminar 56.8 55.3 55.3
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Nov) 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
The euro gained before European Union leaders met to discuss how to contain the debt contagion that has threatened the single currency.
EU leaders start a two-day summit in Brussels today with the focus on a permanent crisis-fighting system.
“It could be euro positive if they put together something concrete that at least in the short term eases market concerns on how far the peripheral debt issues will spread,” said Adam Cole, head of global currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Moody’s Investors Services yesterday said Spain’s credit rating may be cut from Aa1, citing “vulnerability to funding stress.” Spain has to raise 170 billion euros ($225 billion) next year, while refinancing needs for its regions total 30 billion euros and for banks around 90 billion euros, Moody’s estimated. A bailout isn’t “likely,” it said.
Spain issued 4.85% bonds due 2020 and 4.65 percent 2025 notes today. Portuguese government bonds declined yesterday as costs rose at a sale of three-month bills.
The Swiss franc declined after the central bank kept interest rates on hold. The franc’s strength against the euro, which hit a record high yesterday, has threatened the country’s export-led recovery.
EUR/USD held within the $1.3210/70 range.
GBP/USD rose from $1.5540 to $1.5620.
USD/JPY fell from Y84.20 to Y83.94 before recovered back to Y84.06.
The dollar traded near a three-month high against the yen before data that economists said will show U.S. housing starts and building permits rose last month.
U.S. housing starts rose to a 550,000 annual rate in November from 519,000 in October, according to the median estimate of economists.
Building permits, a sign of future activity, gained 1.5 percent to a 560,000 rate last month, another survey showed.
GBP/USD extended recent rally to $1.5626, but appears to be meeting some supply above $1.5620. Rate retreated to current $1.5597.
Oil fell to around $88 a barrel on Thursday as a slew of positive economic data from the U.S. was tempered by mounting concerns over the debt-crisis in the eurozone.
U.S. crude for January fell 44 cents to $88.18 a barrel.
Oil prices rose almost $1 on Wednesday following an unexpectedly large drawdown in U.S. inventory stocks, the biggest in eight years, and data showing higher industrial output and low inflation in the world's largest oil consuming nation.
The euro steadied on Thursday ahead of an EU summit but looked vulnerable to further falls, while the dollar held near the top of recent ranges against several major currencies but lacked energy to vault them.
Trading conditions have become choppy as the year-end approaches, making it hard to take directional bets, although a surge in U.S. yields has boosted the dollar across the board, and took it to a three-month high of Y84.51 on Wednesday.
Treasury prices edged up on Thursday and the dollar paused, helping the euro hold just above the bottom of a range it has kept since the start of the month, ahead of an EU summit set to discuss the euro zone debt crisis.
"The move above Y84.41 yen should be a bullish sign for the dollar/yen but it does depend on U.S. yields," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays. "The euro area still faces peripheral problems ... If contagion spreads to Portugal, then who's next?"
The euro's decline has been compounded by more upbeat U.S. economic data, which helped drive benchmark 10-year Treasury yields to seven-month highs at 3.565% and powered the dollar higher.
EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday for their end-of-year summit, with efforts to overcome the region's year-long debt crisis at the heart of their agenda.
Leaders will try to agree the next step in dealing with the debt crisis and how to stop it spreading. They will discuss changing the EU's treaty to create a permanent crisis-resolution mechanism from 2013 and might look at enlarging the existing crisis fund.
"We expect plenty of contradictory headlines. Hence, the euro is now vulnerable to a renewed move lower, with a break below initial support at $1.3170 likely to trigger a decline to recent lows in the $1.2970 area," BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a client note. "With continued pressure on peripheral spreads, today's Spanish bond auction will be important for sentiment."
Spain, which rating agency Moody's warned on Wednesday could be downgraded, is scheduled to sell up to 3 billion euros of 2020 and 2025 bonds on Thursday.
"If we see a strong reading on U.S. initial jobless claims today, we could see a fresh rally in the dollar," said a trader at a U.S. bank.
Data last week showed the four-week average of jobless claims fell to a four-year low of 427,500, raising hopes that a stagnant U.S. job market may finally be starting to gain strength.
USD/JPY found bids during the latest dip to Y83.96, but bounce tends to be of the "dead cat" variety as crosses weigh on the pair, with Euro-yen now pressing at the day's lows of Y111.20. Dollar yen trades Y84.04/06
EUR/USD slipped down to $1.322s following the EU HICP data which came in on expectations, but euro-sterling now taking the brunt of a euro fall with the cross falling to stg0.8476.
The dollar traded near a three-month high against the yen before data that economists said will show U.S. housing starts and building permits rose last month.
The U.S. currency held onto yesterday’s gains against most major counterparts after Treasury 10-year yields advanced to a seven-month high, attracting demand for U.S. assets.
The euro maintained yesterday’s drop versus the yen as Spain prepares for its final bond sale of the year today amid concern it will follow Greece and Ireland in needing a bailout.
U.S. housing starts rose to a 550,000 annual rate in November from 519,000 in October, according to the median estimate of economists in a survey before the Commerce Department releases the data today. Building permits, a sign of future activity, gained 1.5 percent to a 560,000 rate last month, another survey showed before today’s data.
EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3200-$ 1,3240.
GBP/USD: the pair has slightly receded from the minima reached yesterday.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y84,10-Y84,40.
In the UK at 0830GMT, the Bank of England's Posen delivers a speech. UK data continues this week, at 0930GMT with the Bank of England GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes Survey and also the release of November Retail Sales.
EMU data - at 1000GMT the Q3 labour cost survey and also final HICP for November.
US data starts at 1330GMT with Housing Starts and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 1,000 to 420,000 in the December 11 week. Seasonal adjustment factors are an issue during the November-January period. Housing starts are expected to rebound to a 550,000 annual rate in November after falling in the previous two month. The NAHB reported that its November index of builder sentiment rose slightly to 16. At 1500GMT, the Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall to a reading of 16.0 in December after the sizable gain in November. Later data includes the weekly 1530GMT release of Natural Gas Stocks, while at 2130GMT, weekly Money supply data is due.
European stocks declined, snapping the longest stretch of gains in six months, after Moody’s Investors Service put Spain’s debt rating on review for a possible downgrade.
Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest bank, and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA both fell in Madrid. Inditex SA slid 5.5 percent after the world’s largest clothing retailer reported a slowing in profit growth. Drugmakers limited declines after Novartis AG said it will take full control of Alcon Inc., ending an 11-month dispute with minority shareholders.
Stocks pared losses after reports showed U.S. industrial production increased more than forecast in November while manufacturing in the New York region rebounded more than estimated in December.
U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from a two-year high, after a six-day rally left the benchmark gauge trading at its most expensive level since June and a surge in bond yields fueled concern that borrowing costs will increase.
General Electric Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Alcoa Inc. dropped at least 1.5 percent for the biggest declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. fell more than 2 percent as Canada’s competition watchdog said they use unfair rules to prevent merchants from accepting cheaper payment options. Chipmakers slumped after Gartner Inc. predicted spending on semiconductor equipment will drop next year.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.5 percent to 1,235.94 at 3:12 p.m. in New York. The index closed with a 15.5 price-earnings ratio yesterday, the highest in almost six months. The Dow lost 10.44 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,466.10. Te-year Treasury yields, which influence rates on consumer loans, rose three basis points to 3.50 percent after surging 22 points yesterday.
Resistance 3:Y85.90 (Aug 13 high)
Resistance 2:Y85.90 (high of September)
Resistance 1:Y84.30/40 (Nov 29, Dec 1, 2 and 8 high)
Current price: Y84.26
Support 1:Y83.60 (Dec 15 low)
Support 2:Y82.80 (Dec 14 low)
Support 3:Y82.30 (Dec 7 low, 50,0 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,40)
Comments: the pair bargains above mark Y84,00. The nearest resistance - Y84,40. Above growth is possible to Y85.90. The nearest support - Y83,50. Below losses are possible to Y82.80.
Сопротивление 3:Y85.90 (максимум 13 августа)
Сопротивление 2:Y85.90 (максимум сентября)
Сопротивление 1:Y84.30/40 (максимум 29 ноября, 1, 2 и 8 декабря)
Текущая цена: Y84.26
Поддержка 1:Y83.60 (минимум 15 декабря)
Поддержка 2:Y82.80 (минимум 14 декабря)
Поддержка 3:Y82.30 (минимум 7 декабря, 50,0% FIBO Y80,20-Y84,40)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9690 (Dec 14 high)
Current price: Chf0.9666
Support 1: Chf0.9550 (around of Nov low and Dec 14 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9460 (low of October)
Support 3: Chf0.9400 (psychological mark)
Comments: tech hasn't changed. The nearest resistance Chf0,9690. Above is located Chf0.9720. The nearest support Chf0,9550. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9460.
Resistance 3: $ 1.5760 (61,8 %% FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5530, Dec 15 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5720 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5530, Dec 13 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5675 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5530)
Current price: $1.5555
Support 1 : $1.5530 (Dec 15 low)
Support 3 : $1.5480 (low of November)
Support 3 : $1.5530 (low of September)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the low reached yesterday. The nearest support - $1,5530. Below decrease is possible to $1.5480. The nearest resistance - $1,5675. Above growth is possible to $1,5720.
Resistance 2: $ 1.3500 (Dec 14 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3380 (Dec 15 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3240 (session high)
Current price: $1.3212
Support 1 : $1.3180 (Dec 13 low)
Support 2 : $1.3060 (Dec 2 low)
Support 3 : $1.2970 (low of December and November)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the low reached yesterday. The nearest support - $1,3180. Below decrease is possible to $1.3060. The nearest resistance - $1,3240. Above growth is possible to $1,3380.
08:30 Germany PMI (December) flash 57.8 58.1
08:30 Germany PMI services (December) flash 59.1 59.2
08:30 Swiss SNB press-conference
09:00 EU(16) PMI (December) flash 55.2 55.3
09:00 EU(16) PMI services (December) flash 55.6 55.4
09:30 UK Retail sales (November) 0.4% 0.5%
09:30 UK Retail sales (November) Y/Y - -0.1%
10:00 EU(16) Harmonized CPI (November) final - 0.4%
10:00 EU(16) Harmonized CPI (November) final Y/Y 1.9% 1.9%
10:00 EU(16) Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (November) Y/Y 1.1% 1.1%
13:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 11.12) 422K 421K
13:30 USA Current account (Q3), bln -125.2 -123.3
13:30 USA Housing starts (November), mln 0.540 0.519
13:30 USA Building permits (November), mln 0.555 0.550
15:00 USA Philadelphia Fed index (December) 11.8 22.5
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