On Monday, at 02:00 GMT, China will report changes in GDP for the 3rd quarter, as well as in fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail trade for September. At 10:00 GMT in Germany the Bundesbank's monthly report will be released. At 12:00 GMT, the Fed's chief Powell will deliver a speech. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report changes in wholesale trade for August. At 12:40 GMT ECB chief Lagarde will speak. At 14:00 GMT, the US will present the NAHB housing market index for October. At 14:30 GMT in Canada, a Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey for the 3rd quarter will be released. At 21:00 GMT, New Zealand will publish a NZIER Business Confidence indicator for the 3rd quarter
On Tuesday, at 00:30 GMT, in Australia, the RBA Meeting's Minutes will be released. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will present the producer price index for September. Also at 06:00 GMT, Switzerland will announce a change in the foreign trade balance for September. At 08:00 GMT, the Euro zone will report changes in the current account for August. At 12:30 GMT, the United States will announce changes in housing starts and building permits for September. At 23:30 GMT, Australia will publish an index of leading economic indicators for September.
On Wednesday, at 06:00 GMT, Britain will release the consumer price index and retail price index for September and announce changes in the net amount of public sector debt for September. At 07:30 GMT, ECB President Lagarde will speak. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will publish the consumer price index for September and report changes in retail sales for August. At 14:30 GMT, the US will announce changes in oil reserves according to the Ministry of energy. At 18:00 GMT in the US, the Fed's Beige Book will be released.
On Thursday, at 00:30 GMT Australia will present the indicator of business confidence from NAB for the 3rd quarter. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will release the Gfk consumer climate index for November. At 09:25 GMT Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech. At 10:00 GMT in Britain, the balance of industrial orders will be released according to the CBI for October. At 14:00 GMT, the US will publish an index of leading indicators for September and announce changes in existing home sales for September. Also at 14:00 GMT, the Euro zone will present the consumer confidence indicator for October. At 21:45 GMT, New Zealand will publish the consumer price index for the 3rd quarter. At 23:01 GMT, Britain will release the GfK consumer confidence indicator for October. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will present the consumer price index for September.
On Friday, at 00:30 GMT, Japan will publish the manufacturing PMI for October. At 06:00 GMT, Britain will announce changes in retail sales for September. At 07:15 GMT, France will release the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the index of business activity in the services sector for October. At 07:30 GMT, Germany will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the index of business activity in the service sector for October. At 08:00 GMT, Germany will present the IFO business environment indicator, the IFO current situation assessment indicator, and the IFO economic expectations indicator for October. At 08:00 GMT, the Eurozone will release the manufacturing PMI and the services PMI for October. At 08:30 GMT, Britain will present the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the index of business activity in the services sector for October. At 13:00 GMT, Belgium will release the business sentiment index for October. At 13:45 GMT, the US will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the index of business activity in the services sector for October. At 17:00 GMT, in the US, the Baker Hughes report on the number of active oil drilling rigs will be released.
The Commerce
Department announced on Friday that business inventories rose 0.3 percent m-o-m
in August, following an unrevised 0.1 percent m-o-m advance in July.
That was slightly
below economists’ forecast for a 0.4 percent m-o-m increase.
According to
the report, stocks at retailers and wholesalers both rose by 0.4 percent m-o-m,
while inventories at manufacturers were flat m-o-m.
A report from
the University of Michigan revealed on Friday the preliminary reading for the
Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment increased 1.0 percent m-o-m to 81.2
in early October. This was the highest reading since March.
Economists had
expected the index would edge up to 80.5 this month from September’s final
reading of 80.4.
According to
the report, the index of current U.S. economic conditions dropped 3.3 percent
m-o-m to 84.9 in October from 87.8 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the index
of consumer expectations climbed 4.2 percent m-o-m to 78.8 this month from 75.6
in September.
“Slowing employment
growth, the resurgence in covid-19 infections, and the absence of additional
federal relief payments prompted consumers to become more concerned about the
current economic conditions”, noted Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard
Curtin. “Those concerns were largely offset by continued small gains in
economic prospects for the year ahead,” he added.
The Federal
Reserve reported on Friday the U.S. industrial production fell 0.6 percent
m-o-m in September, following an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in August. This was the first
monthly decline in industrial production after four consecutive months of gains.
Economists had
forecast industrial production would increase 0.5 percent m-o-m in September.
According to
the report, manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent m-o-m in September and the
output of utilities fell 5.6 percent m-o-m. Meanwhile, mining production rose 1.7
percent m-o-m in September.
Capacity
utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point m-o-m to
71.5 percent in September. That was 0.4 percentage points below economists’
forecast and 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2019) average.
In y-o-y terms,
the industrial output dropped 7.3 percent in September, following a revised 7.0
percent plunge in the prior month (originally a 7.7 percent decline).
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, as Pfizer (PFE; +2%) said it might apply for emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of next month, while data showed stronger-than-forecast retail sales growth in September.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 23,410.63 | -96.60 | -0.41% |
Hang Seng | 24,386.79 | +228.25 | +0.94% |
Shanghai | 3,336.36 | +4.17 | +0.13% |
S&P/ASX | 6,176.80 | -33.50 | -0.54% |
FTSE | 5,914.31 | +81.79 | +1.40% |
CAC | 4,919.55 | +82.13 | +1.70% |
DAX | 12,854.19 | +150.44 | +1.18% |
Crude oil | $40.58 | -0.93% | |
Gold | $1,909.50 | +0.03% |
FXStreet reports that UOB Group’s Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviewed the latest inflation figures in the Chinese economy.
“China’s inflation continued to moderate in September on the back of easing food prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% y/y... Food price inflation eased to 7.9% y/y from 11.2% y/y in August while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged for the third consecutive month at 0.5% y/y. The higher base of comparison is expected to drive headline inflation down further in 4Q with full-year averaging around 3.0% compared to 3.3% y/y in the first nine months.”
“Producer Price Index (PPI) fell at a marginally larger pace of -2.1% y/y... Headline PPI deflation is likely to continue for the rest of the year but may narrow with firming global demand and commodity prices.”
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 169.19 | 0.11(0.07%) | 2796 |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 12.38 | 0.08(0.65%) | 18933 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 39.8 | 0.10(0.25%) | 6349 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 3,373.83 | 35.18(1.05%) | 64067 |
American Express Co | AXP | 104.96 | 0.53(0.51%) | 1389 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 121.86 | 1.15(0.95%) | 1351653 |
AT&T Inc | T | 27.56 | 0.11(0.40%) | 57436 |
Boeing Co | BA | 173.5 | 9.26(5.64%) | 1486624 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 167.5 | 2.46(1.49%) | 18571 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 73.69 | 0.18(0.24%) | 7210 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 40.12 | 0.15(0.38%) | 38617 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 43.84 | 0.23(0.53%) | 56613 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 34.44 | -0.01(-0.03%) | 36468 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 268.09 | 1.37(0.51%) | 94119 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 284.21 | 2.10(0.74%) | 16362 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 7.72 | 0.10(1.31%) | 360770 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 17.27 | 0.06(0.35%) | 8680 |
General Electric Co | GE | 6.97 | 0.10(1.45%) | 3397047 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 32.84 | 0.25(0.77%) | 12767 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 209.67 | 1.07(0.51%) | 17754 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,567.50 | 8.37(0.54%) | 8294 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 19.73 | 0.17(0.87%) | 3691 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 288.4 | 0.86(0.30%) | 3820 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 174.25 | 1.64(0.95%) | 3995 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 54.01 | 0.16(0.30%) | 69029 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 125.08 | 0.19(0.15%) | 7733 |
International Paper Company | IP | 46.29 | 0.74(1.62%) | 4041 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 147.8 | 0.61(0.41%) | 11692 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 102.1 | 0.38(0.37%) | 49470 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 229.72 | 0.08(0.03%) | 2527 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 79.3 | 0.24(0.30%) | 37076 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 220.85 | 1.19(0.54%) | 703040 |
Nike | NKE | 129.5 | 0.50(0.39%) | 144279 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 37.32 | 0.77(2.11%) | 1099990 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 143.92 | 0.09(0.06%) | 2148 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 89.35 | 0.52(0.59%) | 5749 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 454.15 | 5.27(1.17%) | 437211 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 50.06 | 0.07(0.14%) | 8734 |
Travelers Companies Inc | TRV | 112.69 | 0.05(0.04%) | 1219 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 46.26 | 0.23(0.50%) | 36088 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 325.6 | 1.03(0.32%) | 2210 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 58.32 | 0.16(0.28%) | 11726 |
Visa | V | 200.84 | 1.29(0.65%) | 16364 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 145.15 | 0.62(0.43%) | 9678 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 127.8 | 0.44(0.35%) | 11003 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 59.95 | -0.78(-1.28%) | 95753 |
Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; target raised to $220
The Commerce
Department reported on Friday the sales at U.S. retailers rose 1.9 percent
m-o-m in September, following an unrevised 0.6 percent m-o-m increase in August. This was
the biggest monthly rise since June.
Economists had
expected total sales would advance 0.7 percent m-o-m in September.
According to
the report, the largest gains in retail sales were recorded in clothing and
accessories (+11 percent m-o-m) and autos (+4 percent m-o-m), while electronics
and appliances was the only major sector that declined (-1.6 percent m-o-m).
Excluding auto,
retail sales grew 1.5 percent m-o-m in September after a revised 0.5 percent
m-o-m advance in the previous month (originally a 0.7percent m-o-m increase), much
better than economists’ forecast of a 0.5 percent m-o-m rise.
Meanwhile,
closely watched core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline,
building materials and food services, and are used in GDP calculations, increased
1.4 percent m-o-m in September after a downwardly revised 0.3 percent m-o-m
drop in August (originally a 0.1 percent m-o-m decrease). Economists had
forecast core retail sales growing 0.2 percent m-o-m in September.
In y-o-y terms,
the U.S. retail sales surged 5.4 percent in September after a revised 2.8 climb
in the previous month (originally a 2.6 percent jump). This was the biggest
increase since December 2019.
FXStreet notes that S&P 500 is holding support as expected from the “neckline” to its “head & shoulders” base at 3437/33 and the Credit Suisse analyst team bias remains to view weakness as corrective ahead of an eventual challenge on the 3588 record high.
“The S&P 500 has seen its expected fall to test and hold support from the ‘neckline’ to its base at 3437/33, also the location of the rising 13-day exponential average, and whilst we would still not rule out a test of the 38.2% retracement of the September/October rally at 3420 we continue to look for a floor here and for the uptrend to then resume.”
“Resistance remains at 3501/02 initially, with a break above 3528 needed to suggest the pullback is over for strength back to 3550, above which can see resistance at 3565 next and eventually the 3588 high, also essentially the upper end of its ‘typical’ extreme (15% above the 200-day average). Whilst this should clearly be respected we look for a break in due course with the ‘measured base objective’ at 3653.”
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09:00 | Eurozone | Trade balance unadjusted | August | 27.7 | 15.1 | 14.7 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | September | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | September | -0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | September | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
GBP fell against other major currencies in the European session on Friday after British prime minister Boris Johnson concluded that the UK should get ready for an Australian-style exit from the EU, i.e. an exit without a comprehensive deal on post-Brexit relations between the two sides. "Unless there's a fundamental change of approach, we're going to go to the Australia solution, and we should do it with great confidence," Johnson added.
On Thursday, the EU leaders sent a firm message that the UK had to compromise on the key outstanding issues - [fisheries, level-playing field and governance] - if there was to be a trade deal. The UK chief Brexit negotiator David Frost said he was "surprised" and "disappointed" by the position of the EU leaders at the summit in Brussels.
Today's announcement by the UK's prime minister disappointed markets, putting pressure on GBP. However, the fact he did not say the UK would quit the talks, capped further decline in the pound.
In response to Boris Johnson's statements, the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU negotiating team would go to London next week to "intensify" talks. "The EU continues to work for a deal, but not at any price. As planned, our negotiation team will go to London next week to intensify these negotiations," she tweeted.
Earlier today, the RTÉ News reported that a number of the EU sources said that the block's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier would seek "to use the leverage of the EU's energy market as a potential way of unblocking the UK's resistance to granting European fishing fleets ongoing access to British waters".
FXStreet notes that if returns to scale are increasing in the banking industry and if the "too big to fail" argument is no longer credible, then there will be consolidation in the European banking sector and large pan-European banks will be created. If returns to scale are indeed increasing, given the importance of fixed costs in banking, then these large banks will be more profitable than European banks today, according to analysts at Natixis.
“A consolidation of the Eurozone banking sector may be triggered by the fact that at the euro-zone level, it is not highly concentrated; there are certainly now increasing returns in banking, given the development of fixed costs: risk analysis, KYC (know your customer), ethics (compliance), new payment technologies, the introduction of Artificial Intelligence, etc.; the existence of pan-European banks would facilitate capital market integration.”
“The remaining issue is that of ‘too big to fail’: normally, bank regulators and governments hate big banks because they have to bail them out if they fail. We do not see this ‘too big to fail’ argument as convincing. In reality, it already applies to mid-sized banks whose failure was seen to be unacceptable. The establishment of the SRM (Single Resolution Mechanism) and the SRF (Single Resolution Fund) brings the management of banking crises to the European level; if large banks are more efficient than mid-sized and small banks thanks to increasing returns to scale, they will be more profitable and therefore less fragile.”
FXStreet notes that USD/CAD reverted sharply higher, completing a minor base to suggest the pair could see further corrective strength in the near-term. Resistance is seen initially at 1.3259/66, then 1.3298, while support moves to 1.3145/43, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.
“USD/CAD has seen a strong upswing, completing a very small base, with strength now pausing at the 50% retracement of the fall from late September at 1.3260. With the small base in mind, we shift the short-term bias to the upside and see resistance initially at 1.3259/66, then 1.3273, ahead of 1.3298 – the 61.8% retracement – where we would expect another attempt to hold and ideally see the core bear trend resume.”
“Support is initially seen at 1.3211, then 1.3193/81, beneath which would ease the immediate upside bias and see a direct move back to 1.3145/43. Removal of here would see 1.3117 next, before a move to the October low at 1.3100/3099.”
USD/JPY: Downside focused on 104.70 - UOB
FXStreet reports that in the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group USD/JPY risks further losses if the 104.70 level is cleared in the near-term.
24-hour view: “Our expectation for USD to ‘probe 104.90 first before a rebound can be expected’ did not materialize as it traded within a 105.07/105.49 range. The price actions offer no fresh clues and USD could continue to trade sideways for now, likely between 105.05 and 105.55.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday, we indicated that the outlook for USD is mixed and held the view that it ‘could trade between 105.00 and 106.00 for a period of time’. The rapid manner by which it approaches the bottom of the range was not exactly expected (overnight low of 105.02) and downward momentum has improved a tad. While the bias is tilted to the downside, USD has to close below 104.70 before a sustained decline can be expected.”
FXStreet notes that EUR/CHF closed beneath the lower end of the neutral range at 1.01725/22 on Thursday, completing a large top, which is ideally reinforced by a weekly close today. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for further weakness to unfold and see the next support at the 200-day average at 1.0679.
“EUR/CHF saw a strong break of the lower end of the broad range at 1.0725/22, completing a large top to shift our bias to the downside, which is ideally reinforced by a weekly close.”
“With daily MACD momentum now also clearly pointing lower, we see support initially at 1.0702/00, then 1.0689/88, ahead of the 200-day average at 1.0679. Whilst we would expect this to hold at first, below can see support next at 1.0650, ahead of the low of July and psychological inflection point at 1.0607/00. Beyond here would see support next at the 78.6% retracement of the May/June surge at 1.0593, ahead of the ‘measured top objective’ seen at 1.0580.”
FXStreet reports that according to economists at MUFG Bank, there are now so many macro factors for market participants to focus on it is no wonder that FX markets remain mostly within recent ranges
“We see little change in the two biggest negatives for market sentiment at the moment. The first is the significant re-escalation of COVID-19 in Europe and some signs of re-escalation in the US as well .The second is the failure in the US to reach a deal on a fiscal stimulus package ahead of the election”
“The markets for now remain half-hearted in its conviction on reducing risk. This makes sense for now given the large-scale fiscal stimulus likely in 2021. What that means for inflation and the US deficit outlook point to the strong need for a weaker US dollar in order for these large-scale deficits to be financed going forward.”
“There are two natural market adjustment mechanisms for higher levels of capital requirements in the US – higher rates or a weaker US dollar. We are betting on the Fed following through with its commitment to cap rates, leaving the US dollar as the only viable adjustment mechanism for financing record deficits going forward.”
According to the report from Eurostat, the euro area annual inflation rate was -0.3% in September 2020, down from -0.2% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 0.8%. European Union annual inflation was 0.3% in September 2020, down from 0.4% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 1.2%.
The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.3%), Cyprus (-1.9%) and Estonia (-1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Poland (3.8%), Hungary (3.4%) and Czechia (3.3%). Compared with August, annual inflation fell in thirteen Member States, remained stable in seven and rose in seven.
In September, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.34 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.24 pp), non-energy industrial goods (-0.08 pp) and energy (-0.81 pp).
Reuters reports that ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said that it is important not to withdraw too early the policies put in place by governments and central banks to counter the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Visco told the economy would not return to the situation pre-dating the virus crisis for another couple of years.
"Policies have to remain extremely accommodating on the fiscal side as well as on the monetary side as we're prepared to do for the euro area as a whole," Visco said.
FXStreet reports that economists at ANZ Bank maintain a positive outlook for the yellow metal as coronavirus cases are surging all over the world.
“The outlook for gold is positive amid mounting economic concerns due to COVID-19 surges.”
“Approval of a US relief package will be the trigger for price upside. Accommodative central bank policies and liquidity injections are broadly supporting the market.”
“Physical demand is recovering ahead of the festive season, so we see the gold price reaching $2,300/oz early next year.”
Reuters reports that ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said that the ECB should follow the U.S. Fed in putting more emphasis on welfare when it's setting policy, even if that would mean inflation exceeded its target temporarily.
Rehn argued that the new economic realities guiding the Fed also applied to Europe. Low unemployment no longer comes at the cost of rapid inflation, so central banks can afford to boost social inclusion.
"If this is the case, from the point of view of economic and social welfare, it makes sense to accept a certain period of overshooting while taking into account the history of undershooting," Rehn said.
Reuters reports that Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said on Friday that the EU needs to strike a balance on what its members want from future EU-UK relations and not solely focus on a single item, such as fishing rights.
"We are behind the countries for whom fishing is important, as every subject can be important such as, for the internal market, to keep on eye on what could be state aid," Bettel said.
"It is important that as a whole there is a balance and not have a situation where one is a winner and the other is a loser."
FXStreet reports that economists at ANZ Bank have left the AUD/USD medium-term forecasts of modest appreciation intact, but see some downside risks to the year-end forecast of 0.73.
“For now, our outlook for global growth is relatively benign, and by extension we expect that the terms of trade can retain their current strength. This will provide some counterweight to the impact that QE can have on the AUD.”
“Our forecast remains predicated on the assumption that 2021 is a better year than 2020”
“More important to our forecasts will be the sustainability of the global growth pulse, and in this regard, the outcome of the US election and what it means for the fiscal outlook, together with the scale of the second wave of COVID-19 in the northern hemisphere will be more important.”
“There is some downside risk to our year-end 2020 target for the AUD/USD of 0.73. However, we still think there is value in buying the aussie around 0.70 for the medium-term.”
CNBC reports that according to Morgan Stanley, Indian stocks have been outperforming other emerging markets for nearly six months and could continue to do so if supportive measures are in place,
The outperformance began in April but the market’s short-term performance remains hinged to global factors, the U.S. investment bank said.
“We have been arguing that for this outperformance to be sustained, India needs to continue to deliver policy that lifts India’s potential growth in the eyes of market participants,” Ridham Desai, equity strategist, and Sheela Rathi, equity analyst, said in the report.
Three factors have helped India’s strong performance: an improving policy environment, corporate response to the pandemic and “an attractive starting point of valuations,” the bank said.
Reuters reports that British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on Friday that Britain is disappointed by the EU's demand that London give more concessions to secure a trade deal but a deal is close and can be done,
"We are disappointed and surprised by the outcome of the European Council," Raab told .
"We've been told that it must be the UK that makes all of the compromises in the days ahead, that can't be right in a negotiation, so we're surprised by that."
"Having said that, we are close," Raab said of a deal. "With goodwill on both sides we can get there."
FXStreet reports that Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, said that OPEC supply is offsetting the positive impact of inventory declines as demand worries linger.
“Following an upbeat week, crude oil stocks again added a positive tone as crude oil inventories dropped another unexpectedly large 3.88 million bbls vs a predicted 2.1 million decline. Adding to this positive is the unexpectedly large 7.2 million bbl distillate stocks decline and the 1.6 million bbl gasoline inventory drop.”
“With the US no longer pursuing a new fiscal stimulus plan which has any chance to be ready before the election, the second wave of COVID-19 is once again reducing economic activity and oil consumption projections. As such, significant crude oil upside is not expected for now.”
“I suspect that WTI will have a hard time to move much above resistance near $41/bbl, at least in the near-term. And, there is a risk that election-related uncertainty may send it even lower to support just under $36/bbl.”
In today's Asian trading, the US dollar showed no significant changes against the euro and declined moderately against the yen.
The growing number of new coronavirus infections in Europe and the lack of progress in the adoption by the US authorities of a new package of stimulus measures to support the economy are contributing to an increase in demand for safe haven assets. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, 38 million 854 thousand 432 cases of coronavirus infection have been recorded worldwide. Johns Hopkins University reported that the number of victims of virus-related diseases has increased to 1 million 97 thousand 359 people.
A number of European countries, including Germany, France and the United Kingdom, have announced new restrictive measures in recent days in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19 amid a growing number of infections.
The pound is getting cheaper. Traders ' focus remains on the future of the UK-European Union trade deal. Britain's chief Brexit Negotiator David Frost said he was disappointed with the EU's position on negotiations with London on the parties ' future relationship. He also expressed bewilderment at the statements that in order to achieve a future agreement between the UK and the EU, all initiatives must come from the British side.
The ICE index, which tracks the US dollar against six currencies (the Euro, Swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish Krona), fell 0.03%.
FXStreet reports that according to FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could recede further and re-test the mid-1.1600s in the near-term.
24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘there is chance for EUR to edge lower but any weakness is likely limited to a test of 1.1705’. We added, ‘the next support is at 1.1680’. The weakness in EUR exceeded our expectation as EUR dropped to 1.1686 before rebounding. While the decline is oversold, it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. From here, EUR is likely to test the major support at 1.1680 first before a rebound can be expected. For today, a break of the next support at 1.1650 is unlikely. Resistance is at 1.1735, the stronger level is at 1.1765.”
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1817 (438)
$1.1791 (522)
$1.1769 (536)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1705
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1644 (1049)
$1.1621 (1786)
$1.1593 (896)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 52705 contracts (according to data from October, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4010);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3045 (268)
$1.3004 (1681)
$1.2973 (213)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2885
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2841 (325)
$1.2806 (243)
$1.2759 (772)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 6 is 31602 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3950 (3694);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 23358 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2050 (2416);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.74 versus 0.72 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 15
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
According to the report from European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), in September 2020, the EU passenger car market registered the first increase of the year. Registrations grew by 3.1% last month to reach 933,987 new cars sold across the European Union1. The four largest markets, however, posted mixed results. Losses were seen in Spain (-13.5%) and France (-3.0%), while Italy (+9.5%) and Germany (+8.4%) showed solid gains.
Over the first nine months of 2020, demand for cars contracted by 28.8% in the EU. Seven million units were registered from January to September, almost 2.9 million less than during the same period last year. Indeed, despite last month’s positive results, the impact of COVID-19 still weighs heavily on the cumulative performance of the EU car market. Among the major markets, Spain saw the steepest drop (-38.3%) so far this year, followed by Italy (-34.2%), France (-28.9%) and Germany (-25.5%).
Reuters reports that the EU will impose duties of up to 48% on imports of aluminium extrusions from China midway through an investigation into whether Chinese producers are selling at unfairly low prices.
The EU official journal said on Tuesday that the duties, ranging from 30.4 to 48.0%, would apply from Wednesday. The duties are provisional, meaning they will apply until the investigation’s expected completion by April. At that point, the bloc could apply duties for five years.
The European Commission opened an investigation in February into the product widely used in transport, construction and electronics after a complaint from industry body European Aluminium.
China’s metals association has called the complaint groundless.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 42.92 | -0.49 |
Silver | 24.26 | 0.21 |
Gold | 1907.677 | 0.38 |
Palladium | 2359.03 | 0.57 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -119.5 | 23507.23 | -0.51 |
Hang Seng | -508.55 | 24158.54 | -2.06 |
KOSPI | -19.27 | 2361.21 | -0.81 |
ASX 200 | 31.1 | 6210.3 | 0.5 |
FTSE 100 | -102.54 | 5832.52 | -1.73 |
DAX | -324.31 | 12703.75 | -2.49 |
CAC 40 | -104.24 | 4837.42 | -2.11 |
Dow Jones | -19.8 | 28494.2 | -0.07 |
S&P 500 | -5.33 | 3483.34 | -0.15 |
NASDAQ Composite | -54.86 | 11713.87 | -0.47 |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Trade balance unadjusted | August | 27.9 | 15.1 |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | September | 0.4% | 0.2% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | September | -0.4% | 0.1% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | September | -0.2% | -0.3% |
12:30 (GMT) | Canada | Foreign Securities Purchases | August | -8.5 | |
12:30 (GMT) | Canada | Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) | August | 7% | -1.4% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Retail Sales YoY | September | 2.6% | |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Retail sales excluding auto | September | 0.7% | 0.5% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Retail sales | September | 0.6% | 0.7% |
13:15 (GMT) | U.S. | Capacity Utilization | September | 71.4% | 71.9% |
13:15 (GMT) | U.S. | Industrial Production YoY | September | -7.7% | |
13:15 (GMT) | U.S. | Industrial Production (MoM) | September | 0.4% | 0.5% |
13:45 (GMT) | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
14:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | October | 80.4 | 80.5 |
14:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Business inventories | August | 0.1% | 0.4% |
17:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | October | 193 | |
20:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Net Long-term TIC Flows | August | 10.8 | |
20:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Total Net TIC Flows | August | -88.7 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.70924 | -1.01 |
EURJPY | 123.392 | -0.09 |
EURUSD | 1.17075 | -0.33 |
GBPJPY | 135.991 | -0.53 |
GBPUSD | 1.29023 | -0.82 |
NZDUSD | 0.65978 | -0.92 |
USDCAD | 1.32157 | 0.57 |
USDCHF | 0.91416 | 0.14 |
USDJPY | 105.4 | 0.28 |
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.