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16.03.2011
19:21
USD/JPY back to Y80.00

USD/JPY challenged historic lows on Y79.80 before recovered to Y80.00. Traders will watch the overnight session in dollar-yen for any sign that officials are inclined to intervene to weaken the yen and one imagines that the risk of "verbal intervention" is likely quite high.

18:34
Dow -200.23 at 11655.19, Nasdaq -40.22 at 2627.11, S&P -20.80 at 1261.07

Stocks have fallen another leg lower so that the S&P 500 now sits at a new two-month low.
Underlying share volume has been robust this session. There are still two full hours before the toll of the closing bell and more than 700 million shares have already traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange. The increase in activity comes as investors juggle their portfolios amid ongoing headline risk related to Japan's nuclear facilities and the political and social tumult in the Middle East and North Africa.

18:14
GBP/USD under $1.6000

GBP/USD finally fills the bids in the $1.6000/10 level and falls below $1.60 to test lows near $1.5990. There are bids near last Friday's lows around $1.5975/80.

17:54
BNP Paribas on USD/CHF

USD/CHF posts a record low around Chf0.9070. BNP Paribas chief technical analyst Andy Chaveriat says the Chf0.9010/Chf0.9000 remains the key target and psychological barrier, with Chf0.9202 (the March 2 low) acting as "first resistance". On the downside, breaking under Chf0.9000 would target "down channel" support at Chf0.8922 and then Chf0.8887/Chf0.8828.

17:46
Dow -180.59 at 11674.83, Nasdaq -35.06 at 2632.27, S&P -18.45 at 1262.60

The overall mood among morning participants was weakened by reports of increased violence and instability surrounding the social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. That news helped prop up oil prices, which are currently up 1.3% to $98.45 per barrel. The advance has come in the face of a greater-than-expected build in weekly inventories.
The dollar has attracted additional buying interest in recent trade. It is now up approximately 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Although the greenback is currently up against a collection of competing currencies, it was recently down against Japan's yen to 80.15 yen per dollar, which marked the dollar's lowest level against the yen since 1995.

17:30
US focus: Yen hits highest against Dollar since 1995 on radiation concern in Japan

The yen reached its strongest level since 1995 versus the dollar as increased risk in Japan of radiation leaks from crippled nuclear power plants boosted speculation investors there will bring home overseas assets.
Japan’s currency gained for the fourth straight day amid speculation the strength of the yen may prompt intervention to weaken it by the Bank of Japan for the first time since September.
“The more macabre headlines you see pertaining to the nuclear reactors, the more speculation you are going to see over repatriation,” said Jessica Hoversen, an analyst at MF Global Holdings Ltd. “I think 80 is a line in the sand for the central bank.”
“There are real concerns that if it’s a disorderly move down in dollar-yen, the BOJ may start to intervene,” said Paresh Upadhyaya at Bank of America Corp.
In an attempt to slow the yen’s 15% appreciation last year, the Bank of Japan sold 2 trillion yen ($25 billion) in September in the nation’s first currency market intervention since 2004.

The euro fell for the first time in four days after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Portugal’s credit rating, reviving concern about the region’s ability to solve its debt crisis. The company cited the nation’s “less supportive” economic environment and said its outlook remained negative given Portugal’s “subdued growth prospects” and risks that the government won’t be able to implement deficit-reduction plans.
The Swiss franc gained as violence in the Middle East and concern in Japan prompted haven-asset buying. Bahrain closed its stock exchange as clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters intensified.
Concern that violence may spread to neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer, damped demand for higher-yielding assets and increased commodity prices. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials rose 1.1% after falling 3.6% yesterday.
“The focus will remain on Bahrain as well as Japan,” Kathy Lien at GFT Forex. “For the time being, risk aversion will still be something that’s more dominant in the market right now.”

17:19
IMF: Greece program gaining ground, but more work needed
  • Greece needs 3.5%/GDP new cuts to hit 2011 deficit target
  • Debt seen peaking in 2013, then declining
  • Greek economy seen bottoming out in 2h 2011
  • Bank system must free itself from eurosystem support
  • Greece should start enacting medium-term policy reforms in 2h 2011
  • Credit, liquidity both remain tight
  • Banks continue to tightening lending, credit standards
  • Inflation broadly in line with program estimates
  • Inflation to hit 1% by end-2011; stay there for some time
15:17
GBP/USD weakens

GBP/USD breaks lower earlier lows at $1.6038 to $1.6020. Support area seen from around $1.6015 through to $1.6000. Below the figure and stronger area between $1.5980/75.

14:47
UK OSBORNE: Fiscal responsibility foundation for growth
  • Need new, more sustainable growth model;
  • Labour data showed disappointing jobless rise;
  • Labour data showed evidence of economic rebalancing
14:32
US EIA:CRUDE OIL STOCKS +1.7M TO 350.6M BARRELS IN MAR 11 WEEK
14:27
OECD: UK Rates Should Remain Low To Counter Headwinds
  • BOE Bank Rate Should Rise Only Slowly From mid-2011;
  • UK Monpol Should Be Expansionary Even If CPI Over Target
14:13
Dow -74.74 at 11780.68, Nasdaq -11.08 at 2656.25, S&P -6.28 at 1275.60

Sellers hit stocks at the open to send the major equity averages markedly lower. Stocks have made modest attempts to rebound from the gap down, though.
Leadership is lacking in the early going. Tech, the largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500, is down 0.8%, which makes it the worst performing sector.
General weakness among stocks has helped refresh the bid for Treasuries, but the yield on the 10-year Note is still above the three-month low of about 3.20% that was set yesterday.

13:23
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set for a flat open Wednesday, as investors digested disappointing housing numbers.


Investors also continue to weigh the impact of Japan's deadly earthquake and subsequent nuclear crisis, with other geopolitical tensions around the world.
Early Wednesday, Moody's Investors Service downgraded Portugal's credit rating from A1 to A3 -- a lower investment grade status. And Fitch downgraded Bahrain's debt to below investment grade, following a government clash with protestors.
U.S. stocks are coming off sharp losses Tuesday, as investors looked past a somewhat positive statement from the Federal Reserve, to focus on the deteriorating situation at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
Investors, stunned by the devastation in Japan, had been reducing their exposure to risky assets and flocking to investments that are considered safe, including U.S. Treasuries. But the Wednesday rebound in Japanese stocks sent U.S. bond markets lower.
Economy:
The Commerce Department reported that an annual rate of 479,000 new homes were built in February, down from a revised 618,000 in January.
Economists had expected the number of housing starts to rise to an annual rate of 575,000 units in the month, according to consensus estimates from economists.
Building permits -- considered a leading indicator of activity in the housing sector -- fell to an annual rate of 517,000 last month, down from a revised 563,000 in January.
Permits were expected to have increased slightly to 563,000.
Separately, the government's Producer Price Index showed that prices at the wholesale level jumped 1.6% in February, which was much more than expected. The PPI was forecast to show prices at the wholesale level increased 0.6% in February.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.2% in the month, matching expectations.
World markets:

Oil prices -- which fell nearly 4% on Tuesday -- were higher early Wednesday, as concerns the ongoing turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East were revived. Oil for April delivery gained $1.80 to $98.98 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery climbed $11.10 to $1,403.90 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was slightly higher, sending the yield ticking up to 3.3%.

12:34
US: Feb PPI +1.6%

Core +0.2% (+0.22792% unrounded) for +5.6% YOY overall and +1.8% YOY core.

12:33
US: Feb housing starts -22.5% to 479k
12:13
European session:

The euro halted three days of gains versus the dollar as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Portugal’s credit rating, reviving concern about Europe’s ability to solve its debt crisis.
The 17-nation common currency depreciated versus all but two its major counterparts after Portugal was cut two steps by Moody’s yesterday to A3, four steps from so-called junk status. The rating company said its outlook remained negative given Portugal’s “subdued growth prospects” and risks that the government won’t be able to implement deficit-reduction plans.
Portugal “faces significant challenges, not least a less supportive economic environment,” Moody’s said in a statement late yesterday. The country’s gross domestic product is expected to “decline this year and experience a weak recovery at best in 2012,” Moody’s said.
“The euro’s under pressure after Portugal’s downgrade,” said Jane Foley, a senior strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Momentum for euro buying has waned.”
Technical analysis suggests the euro’s outlook has worsened after its failure to sustain gains past $1.4000.

EUR/USD: from $1.4000 eased to $1.3925.
GBP/USD: got support at $1.6050/40, before bounced back to $1.6100.
USD/JPY: traded within Y80.70-Y81.20 range. 


US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. Meanwhile, US data at 1230GMT includes Housing Starts, Building Permits, the Q4 Current Account and PPI. The pace of housing starts is expected to slow to 560,000 annual rate in February after improving to a 596,000 annual rate in January. Builders continue to hold the line on 
new home supply. NAHB reported no change in the builders index in February. Producer prices are expected to increase by 0.7% in February after a 0.8% increase in January. Core prices are expected to increase by 0.2% after the surprise 0.5% jump in January. Later US data sees the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data at 1430GMT.

11:57
Orders desk:

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.20/25, Y81.50/55, Y82.05, Y82.50
Bids: Y80.60, Y80.25/20, Y80.15/10, Y80.00

11:38
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3830, $1.3920, $1.4000, $1.4025
USD/JPY Y82.50
EUR/JPY Y115.65
GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6125, $1.6200
AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9850, $0.9940, $0.9945, $0.9950, $1.0015

10:36
European shares turned lower

Banks leading the falls afer Moody's downgraded Portuguese debt and as uncertainty persisted over whether Japan can contain its nuclear disaster.

10:06
Оption expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3830, $1.3920, $1.4000, $1.4025 
USD/JPY Y82.50
EUR/JPY Y115.65 
GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6125, $1.6200
AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9850, $0.9940, $0.9945, $0.9950, $1.0015

10:02
EMU DATA: FEB HICP UNREV +2.4% Y/Y
09:47
Asian stocks close

Hang Seng +0.1%  22700.88
Shanghai Composite +1.19% 2,930.80 
Nikkei +5.68% 9093.72

09:32
UK DATA: Feb claimant count unemployment -10,200; rate 8.0%
09:23
Asian session: The dollar rose

The dollar rose and the yen erased losses against the euro as fires and aftershocks hampered efforts to contain radiation at a crippled Japanese nuclear power plant, boosting demand for safer assets.
The euro fell as officials battling to prevent a nuclear meltdown said fuel rods at two reactors at the power station north of Tokyo may have been damaged. The euro also dropped after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Portugal.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, gained 0.1 percent to 76.52.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3890-$ 1.4000.

GBP/USD: the pair become stronger above a mark $1,6100.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80.70-Y81.20. 

EMU data at 1000GMT is expected to see labour cost at 0.7% for Q4 and the final Feb HICP data at 2.4%. At 1200GMT, the Norges Bank delivers its monetary policy decision, which is followed by a press conference at 1245GMT.
UK labour market data is due at 0930GMT. The Q4 headline Labour Force Survey data deteriorated with a 68,000 drop in employment and the first official data for the new year, while January's claimant count figure showed a small rise. The Bank of England, however, believes the picture is less bleak.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. Meanwhile, US data at 1230GMT includes Housing Starts, Building Permits, the Q4 Current Account and PPI. The pace of housing starts is expected to slow to 560,000 annual rate in February after improving to a 596,000 annual rate in January. Builders continue to hold the line on 
new home supply. NAHB reported no change in the builders index in February. Producer prices are expected to increase by 0.7% in February after a 0.8% increase in January. Core prices are expected to increase by 0.2% after the surprise 0.5% jump in January. Later US data sees the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data at 1430GMT. 

09:18
Forex: Tusday's review

 

The yen rose against all of its major counterparts as risk in Japan of radiation leaks from crippled nuclear power stations boosted speculation that insurers will repatriate assets to pay for earthquake damages.

Stocks sank, with the Nikkei 225 index posting its biggest two-day drop since 1987. The MSCI World Index fell 2.9 percent while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 2 percent. 
Currencies of commodity-exporting countries plunged as speculation increased the explosions at the nuclear power station will damp demand for raw materials. 
The Swiss franc advanced to a record against the dollar on demand for a refuge as Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan said his government is doing everything it can to contain the radioactive leaks following last week’s earthquake and tsunami. The euro pared losses against the U.S. currency even as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet called “insufficient” a package of economic-oversight rules adopted by European Union finance ministers.

EUR/USD: the pair has shown low in the field of $1.3860 then  returned back to around of a mark $1.4000. 
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in around $1.6070. 
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair has decreased in area Y80.70. 
EMU data at 1000GMT is expected to see labour cost at 0.7% for Q4 and the final Feb HICP data at 2.4%. At 1200GMT, the Norges Bank delivers its monetary policy decision, which is followed by a press conference at 1245GMT.
UK labour market data is due at 0930GMT. The Q4 headline Labour Force Survey data deteriorated with a 68,000 drop in employment and the first official data for the new year, while January's claimant count figure showed a small rise. The Bank of England, however, believes the picture is less bleak.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. Meanwhile, US data at 1230GMT includes Housing Starts, Building Permits, the Q4 Current Account and PPI. The pace of housing starts is expected to slow to 560,000 annual rate in February after improving to a 596,000 annual rate in January. Builders continue to hold the line on 
new home supply. NAHB reported no change in the builders index in February. Producer prices are expected to increase by 0.7% in February after a 0.8% increase in January. Core prices are expected to increase by 0.2% after the surprise 0.5% jump in January. Later US data sees the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data at 1430GMT. 

 

08:36
Stock: Tusday's review

Japan’s shares tumbled, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average and Topix index suffering their third- worst daily declines in history, on record trading volume as concern grew about the safety of nuclear plants damaged by the country’s worst earthquake.
Tokyo Electric Power Co., Asia’s biggest power generator, plummeted by the daily limit of 25 percent after the company confirmed an explosion at a third reactor and a fire at a fourth today at its nuclear plant in Fukushima, north of Tokyo. Hitachi Ltd., which provides nuclear power generation systems, plunged 13 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s largest bank by market value, at one point declined to the lowest since its listing in Tokyo.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 11 percent to 8,605.15 at the market close in Tokyo, the lowest since April 2009.
The Nikkei 225 has fallen 21 percent from its high this year on Feb. 21.
European stocks slumped the most in four months as concern grew that a Japanese nuclear power plant damaged by last week’s earthquake will leak radiation.
Carmakers and chemical shares led losses on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as all 19 industry groups lost at least 1.5 percent. Utilities E.ON AG (EOAN) and RWE AG (RWE) sank more than 2 percent, while renewable-energy companies rallied as Germany said it will halt its seven oldest nuclear reactors as part of a safety review. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) led a selloff in basic-resource shares as metal prices retreated.
Chemical shares and carmakers led declines in Europe, with both industry groups falling more than 3 percent. Renault SA (RNO), which has a 43 percent stake in Japan’s Nissan Motor Co., lost 1.6 percent to 37.55 euros. Volkswagen AG (VOW), Europe’s largest carmaker, retreated 3.8 percent to 108.95 euros, the lowest price in four months. BASF SE (BAS), the world’s biggest chemical company, slid 4 percent to 55.46 euros, while Rhodia SA (RHA), a French specialty chemicals maker, lost 3.2 percent to 19.01 euros.
U.S. stocks tumbled, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a two-month low, amid concern that Japan’s worst earthquake on record and a nuclear crisis near Tokyo may derail the global economic recovery.
General Electric Co. (GE), which is in talks to sell reactors to India, fell 3.2 percent. Alcoa Inc. (AA) and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. slumped at least 1.8 percent as commodity prices fell amid speculation demand will slow. Intel Corp. (INTC) dropped 3.6 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. cut its recommendation for the world’s largest chipmaker. Aflac Inc. (AFL), the insurance company which gets most of its revenue in Japan, sank 7
The S&P 500 has fallen 1.8 percent over the past two days, paring this year’s gain to 1.9 percent. The benchmark gauge for American equities had risen 92 percent from its bear-market low in March 2009 through yesterday amid government stimulus measures and as corporate earnings beat analysts’ estimates for eight straight quarters.

07:56
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y82.50 (Mar 14 high) 
Resistance 2:Y82.00 (Mar 15 low) 
Resistance 1:Y81.20 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.88
Support 1:Y80.60 (Mar 15 low)    
Support 2:Y80.20 (Nov 1 low)    
Support 3:Y79.80 (historic low)    
Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - Y80,60. Below losses are possible  to Y80.20. The nearest resistance - Y81.20. Above growth is possible to Y82.00. 

07:47
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9320 (Mar 14 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9250 (Mar 15 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9190 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9157
Support 1: Chf0.9140 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9100 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.9000 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9190. Above is located Chf0.9250. The nearest support - Chf0.9140. Below loss may extend  to Chf0.9100. 

07:41
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6340 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6240 (Mar 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6170 (resistance line from Mar 9)
Current price: $1.6074
Support 1 : $1.6050 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5975 (Mar 11 low)
Support 3 : $1.5820 (Jan 31 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6070. The nearest support $1.6050. Below is possible testings of around $1.5975. The nearest resistance $1.6170. Above growth is possible  to $1.6240. 

07:36
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4080 (Nov 8 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4030 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4000 (Mar 14 high)
Current price: $1.3978
Support 1 : $1.3910 (support line from Mar 11)
Support 2 : $1.3800 (support line from Feb 14)
Support 3 : $1.3770 (Mar 2 low)
Comments: the pair bargains below a mark $1.4000 (the nearest resistance). Above growth is possible to $1,4030. The nearest support $1,3910. Below losses are possible to $1.3800. 

07:21
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Mar 16 2011:

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report (March)  
09:00 Italy CPI (February) final 0.3% 0.3%
09:00 Italy CPI (February) final Y/Y 2.4% 2.4%
09:00 Italy HICP (February) final Y/Y 2.1% 2.1%
09:00 Italy Consumer confidence (March) - 106.4
09:30 UK Claimant count (February) 1000 2400
09:30 UK Claimant count rate (February) 4.5% 4.5%
09:30 UK Average earnings (3 months to January) Y/Y 1.9% 1.8%
09:30 UK Average earnings ex bonuses (3 months to January) Y/Y 2.3% 2.3%
09:30 UK ILO Jobless rate (January) 7.9% 7.9%
10:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (February) final 0.5% -0.7%
10:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (February) final Y/Y 2.4% 2.3%
10:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (February) Y/Y 1.1% 1.1%
12:30 USA Housing starts (February), mln 0.565 0.596
12:30 USA Building permits (February), mln 0.570 0.563
12:30 USA PPI (February) 0.6% 0.8%
12:30 USA PPI (February) Y/Y - 3.6%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (February) 0.2% 0.5%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (February) Y/Y - 1.6%
12:30 USA Current account (Q4), bln -110.0 -127.2
23:50 Japan Tertiary activity index (January) 1.2% -0.8%

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