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14.07.2011
19:08
EUR/USD prints lows now at $1.4115, heading for bids eyed at $1.4100 and at $1.4080.
18:22
Dow -2.91 at 12488.70, Nasdaq -26.13 at 2769.87, S&P -2.76 at 1314.96

At its session high, the Dow was up about 90 points.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.72, +1.10) has supported for the Dow today. Its upside earnings surprise has put the stock at a weekly high, but it has struggled to get other blue chips and financial plays to follow it higher. For instance, Bank of America (BAC 10.16, -0.03) has spent the entire afternoon in the red.

18:11
CORPORATE NEWS: Boeing reporting 35 airplane orders were cancelled.
17:42
US focus: US downgrade fuels distrust of US dollar

Today the U.S. dollar significantly dropped as late Wednesday Moody's and Chinese ratings agency Dagong both put the US AAA credit rating on negative watch.

“The fear of the U.S. downgrade has led to a swift move to the safe haven currency,” said Sebastien Galy, a foreign-exchange analyst at Societe Generale in London.



Euro strengthened versus US dollar amid the weakness of the latter. Despite Greece's credit rating was cut three levels by Fitch Ratings from B+ to CCC, any downgrade in the eurozone has increasingly less impact than debt problems in the US.

It should be noted that yesterday Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, raised the possibility of a third bout of quantitative easing – or “QE3”, that the central bank is ready to provide additional economic stimulus if needed.

Japan’s currency, shedding in the beginning of the session against dollar amid speculation the nation will intervene in markets to limit its gains, retreated but declining again.

The Swiss franc reached to record highs against the dollar, euro and the pound amid concerns about credit ratings of U.S and Greece. Today Fitch Ratings has affirmed Switzerland's ratings at 'AAA'. Its outlook remains stable.

New Zealand’s dollar strengthened to a record after a government report showed the economy grew faster than expected. The New Zealand economy has released today its house price index for the month of June which increased 1.3%, compared with a previous drop by 1.8% in May. This fact signaled the nation is recovering from a deadly earthquake in February.

Despite yesterday the yellow metal rallied to a new high around $1,600 per troy ounce and silver approached $40 per troy ounce and today continued theirs rally on fiscal and economic problems in the US, currently the precious metals are slightly above yesterday’s closing price.

17:15
PORTUGAL, Finmin: Unemployment to rise to 12.5% in 2011, 13.2% 2012
17:10
PORTUGAL, Finmin: Private consumption expected -4.5% in 2011, -3.3% 2012
17:04
PORTUGAL, Finmin: Sees significant recovery from 2013
17:00
PORTUGAL, Finmin: Sees 2011 GDP -2.3%, 2012 -1.7%
16:55
Analysts at JPM are revising down Q3 real GDP est from 3.0% to 2.5%.
16:44
Oil weakens

Oil weakens after Wednesday's gains with Aug crude down $2.20 at $95.84 and in the lower reaches of the day's $95.76/98.88 range.

15:46
USD/CAD recovers

USD/CAD holds around C$0.9588, recovered from lows around  C$0.9550 area. Offers likely in place ahead of the overnight high at C$0.9610 to slow gains from here.

15:24
FED's Bernanke: Repeats housing a major drag; keeping mortgage rates low.

 

  • need to define housing finances for future;
  • Fannie/Freddie own about half of a million of empty homes;
  • housing is an "epicenter"  of economic problems;
  • default could potentially throw finaces into chaos;
  • danger to create even the possibility of default;
  • 1H weakness comes from temporary factors;
  • recovery is slow due to housing;
  • unemployment also a drag;
  • EU problems do affect US and trade;
  • don'y expect bif direct impacts of any Europe default;
  • but indirect effects of Europe default could be big;
  • can only conclude default is "very bad for jobs";
  • US fiscal problems not the same with EU.

 

15:16
FED's Bernanke: EU problems do affect US and trade.
  • don'y expect bif direct impacts of any Europe default;
  • but indirect effects of Europe default could be big;
  • can only conclude default is "very bad for jobs";
  • US fiscal problems not the same with EU.


14:50
FED's Bernanke: Repeats housing a major drag; keeping mortgage rates low.
  • need to define housing finances for future;
  • Fannie/Freddie own about half of a million of empty homes;
  • housing is an "epicenter"  of economic problems;
  • default could potentially throw finaces into chaos;
  • danger to create even the possibility of default;
  • 1H weakness comes from temporary factors;
  • recovery is slow due to housing;
  • unemployment also a drag.
14:31
Nomura on US jobs

Nomura says downward trend in unemploy claims "evident in the decline in the 4-week average -- suggests the job market is relatively stable if not improving a bit after weakening markedly in May and June."

14:18
Dow +40.11 at 12531.72, Nasdaq +5.77 at 2801.77, S&P +4.29 at 1322.01

Early trade is rather choppy, but the major equity averages have managed to remain in positive territory with modest gains.
Energy is an early leader. The sector has sprinted ahead to a 1.2% gain as ConocoPhillips (COP 9.70, +5.30) shares spike more than 7% in response to news that the company will split itself into two publicly traded entities, one which will focus on refining and marketing, the other will take over exploration and production operations.
In the backdrop, oil prices are up 0.6% to $98.70 per barrel.

14:01
US: May business inventories +1.0%
13:53
IMF: Calls for quick implementation of Eurogroup plans.
13:50
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4200, $1.4250, $1.4270, $1.4285/90
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50
EUR/JPY Y111.00, Y114.30
GBP/USD $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0750, $1.0800
AUD/CAD C$1.0300, C$1.0325

13:16
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were headed for slight gains at Thursday's open, despite a warning from Moody's of a possible downgrade to U.S. debt that is sure to weigh on markets.
A strong earnings report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), the first of the big banks to report, and better-than-expected economic data were lending some support.
U.S. stocks snapped a three-session losing streak Wednesday, after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank remains ready to provide additional stimulus.
After the bell Wednesday, Moody's Investors Services said it would put the sterling bond rating of the United States on review for possible downgrade.
Moody's initiated the review, because of the "rising possibility" that Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling in time -- something that could lead to a U.S. default on its debt.
Economy: The Labor Department said jobless claims fell 22,000 to 405,000. Economists were expecting weekly claims to decrease to 410,000 claims. It was the 14th straight week filings came in above the key level of 400,000.
The June producer price index, a reading of wholesale inflation, fell 0.4% in June, after rising 0.2% the prior month. Economists were expecting the measure to have fallen 0.2%.
The Commerce Department said June retail sales rose 0.1%. Sales were expected to have fallen 0.2% last month.
Bernanke's testimony to Congress will continue Thursday, with the Fed chairman appearing before the Senate's Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
Companies: Conoco Phillips (COP, Fortune 500) said that it is splitting its operations into two distinct publicly traded corporations, sending its stock up 7%.
In a tax-free spin to shareholders, ConocoPhillips will separate its oil refining and marketing business from its exploration and production operations.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reported quarterly income of $5.4 billion, or $1.27 a share, on revenue of $27.4 billion. Both figures topped estimates. But the bank also said that it sees additional costs for resolving mortgage issues. Shares of JPMorgan edged up 1%.
Shares of Yum! Brands (YUM, Fortune 500) were almost 3% higher in premarket trading after the fast food operator posted better-than-expected earnings after the market close on Wednesday.
A day after a poor preliminary results report for the second quarter, shares of Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG, Fortune 500) fell almost 4% before the market open.
After the bell, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) will report its quarterly results. Analysts expect that Google earned $7.86 a share.
World markets:


Oil for August delivery gained 20 cents to $98.25 a barrel.
Gold futures for August delivery rose $5.70 to $1591.20. Earlier in the trading session, gold set a new intraday record of $1,594.00 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dropped, pushing the yield up to 2.91% from 2.89% late Wednesday.

13:06
GBP/USD keeps positive mood

Cable reached $1.6150, a break to open a move toward $1.6170/80 ahead of earlier highs at $1.6195, with offers noted between $1.6195/00.

12:33
US : Jun retail sales +0.1%, ex-autos 0.0%
12:32
US: Initial Unemploy Claims -22k to 405k for Jul 9 wk, lowest since Apr 16
12:31
US: Jun PPI -0.4% +7.0% y/y, core +0.3%;+2.4% y/y
12:13
European session:
The Dollar Index declined for a third day after Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. under review for a credit downgrade, damping demand for the nation’s currency.
The greenback held yesterday’s loss against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is prepared to take additional action, including buying more government bonds, to boost the economy. Japan’s currency slid about 1 yen per dollar within a few minutes at the start of London trading amid speculation the nation will intervene in markets to limit its gains. A report today may show U.S. retail sales dropped in July.
The Moody’s comments “reinforce the dollar-negative sentiment,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “The dollar has staged quite a sharp reversal and the market is now on heightened quantitative-easing watch, which will leave the dollar vulnerable to weaker U.S. data,” he said.

US data calendar, including jobless claims, retail sales and PPI, which are all due at 1230GMT.
At 1400GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee. At the same time, May business inventories are expected to increase 0.9% in May, reflecting the already announced 0.8% increase in factory inventories and the 1.8% increase in wholesale inventories. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data follows at 1430GMT

12:01
EUR/USD extends recovery off lows of $1.4156 to $1.4195, with rate challenging resistance at $1.4200. Break above will target $1.4250.
11:31
DB says of today's data, core retail sales should perform well based on good June chain-store data.
11:04
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Switzerland's ratings at 'AAA', outlook stable
10:56
European focus:

The Dollar Index declined for a third day after Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. under review for a credit downgrade, damping demand for the nation’s currency.
The greenback held yesterday’s loss against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is prepared to take additional action, including buying more government bonds, to boost the economy. Japan’s currency slid about 1 yen per dollar within a few minutes at the start of London trading amid speculation the nation will intervene in markets to limit its gains. A report today may show U.S. retail sales dropped in July.
The Moody’s comments “reinforce the dollar-negative sentiment,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “The dollar has staged quite a sharp reversal and the market is now on heightened quantitative-easing watch, which will leave the dollar vulnerable to weaker U.S. data,” he said.

10:17
German Finance Ministry saying new Greece program needs private contributions.
09:38
FTSE 5,868 -38.47 -0.65%, CAC 3,770 -23.26 -0.61%, DAX 7,244 -24.13 -0.33%
09:26
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.4015, $1.4200, $1.4270, $1.4285-90, 
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.75, Y80.00, Y80.20, Y81.00
EUR/JPY  Y111.00, Y114.30, Y115.75
GBP/USD$1.6000, $1.6150, $1.6240
AUD/USD  $1.0600, $1.0640, $1.0650, $1.0750, $1.0800, $1.0850, $1.0930, $1.0950
AUD/CAD C$1.0300, C$1.0325
NZD/USD $0.8225


08:58
Asian session:

The dollar held yesterday’s loss against the euro after Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. under review for a credit rating downgrade, damping demand for the nation’s currency.

Japan’s currency slid about 1 yen per dollar within a few minutes at the start of London trading amid speculation the nation will intervene in markets to limit its gains. 
The greenback fell versus most of its major peers before a report economists said will show retail sales dropped and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke prepared to testify for a second day to U.S. lawmakers. 
New Zealand’s currency rose to a record a government report showed economic growth quickened.
New Zealand’s dollar climbed for a second day against the U.S. currency after the country’s economic growth quickened, signaling the nation is recovering from its deadliest quake in eight decades in February.
EUR/USD: the pair   shown high in $1.4285 area then decreased.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in  $1.6190 area then decreased.
USD/JPY: the pair shown high in Y79.60 area then decreased.
At 0800GMT, the ECB publishes the Monthly Bulletin for July, although this usually adds little to the recent post-meeting press conference & statement, while final HICP data for EMU at 0900GMT is  expected to confirm the preliminary estimate. 
US data calendar, including jobless claims, retail sales and PPI, which are all due at 1230GMT.
At 1400GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee. At the same time, May business inventories are expected to increase 0.9% in May, reflecting the already announced 0.8% increase in factory inventories and the 1.8% increase in wholesale inventories. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data follows at 1430GMT

08:03
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei   9,936 -27.02 -0.27%   
Hang Seng   21,918 -8.57 -0.04%  
S&P/ASX   4,491 -24.07 -0.53%   
Shanghai Composite  2,810 +14.97 +0.54%

08:00
Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar weakened against all major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank is ready to provide additional economic stimulus if needed and investor demand for higher-yielding assets increased.
Earlier the Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced against the greenback after better-than-expected economic data on China. The GDP growth of China, Australia's first largest and New Zealand's second-largest trading partner, rose at an annual pace by 9.5% between April and June, down from 9.7% in the previous quarter. But its data on industrial production (act. 15.1% vs. con.13.2% and prev. 13.3%) and retail sales (act. 17.7% vs. con.17.0% and prev. 16.39) appeared to be well above median forecasts.
The euro also found support from positive data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics as it weighed on haven demand for the dollar and on speculation that China’s foreign exchange reserves had reached a record $3,179bn.
Italian bonds gains for the second day, pushing the yield on the 10-year security down 12 basis points, weakening concern that EU debt crisis may spread to Italy. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown above $1.4200.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in $1.6160  area.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in Y78.50  area.
At 0800GMT, the ECB publishes the Monthly Bulletin for July, although this usually adds little to the recent post-meeting press conference & statement, while final HICP data for EMU at 0900GMT is  expected to confirm the preliminary estimate. 
US data calendar, including jobless claims, retail sales and PPI, which are all due at 1230GMT.
At 1400GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee. At the same time, May business inventories are expected to increase 0.9% in May, reflecting the already announced 0.8% increase in factory inventories and the 1.8% increase in wholesale inventories. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data follows at 1430GMT

07:53
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Asian shares climbed after second-quarter growth in China came in stronger than expected, leaving investors more confident that the world’s second-largest economy was unlikely to come in for a hard landing.
Chinese shares advanced after figures showed gross domestic product rose 9.5 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, following a 9.7 per cent gain in the first quarter. Growth was the slowest in almost two years, which may reduce inflationary pressure in the second half, but was still stronger than many economists had expected. Industrial output growth accelerated to 15.1 per cent in June, from May’s 13.3 per cent.
China’s Shanghai Composite index gained 1.5 per cent to 2,795.5.
Agricultural Bank of China, the nation’s fourth-largest by assets, was up 1.9 per cent to Rmb2.71 after forecasting a rise of more than 45 per cent rise in first-half net profit. Shenzhen Development Bank gained 3.2 per cent to Rmb17.54 after estimating that first-half net profit rose 50-60 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1.2 per cent to 21,926.88.
The FTSE Asia Pacific index was up 1 per cent at 262.42 as resource stocks across the region drew in bargain-hunters on speculation Chinese demand for raw materials would not fade sharply.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.4 per cent 9,963.14, with Mitsui & Co rising 2.1 per cent to Y1,432 after announcing a takeover bid for Singapore’s Portek International. Shares in Portek climbed 6.1 per cent to S$1.40.

European stocks rose, halting three days of losses for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is prepared to take additional action to support the economy.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) advanced 4.4 percent as Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the world’s biggest maker of luxury cars.
Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) surged 6.5 percent as the U.K.’s largest luxury-goods maker reported first-quarter sales that beat analysts’ estimates.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) tumbled 2.7 percent after Europe’s biggest semiconductor-equipment maker reported second- quarter orders that missed its own forecast.
BMW surged 4.4 percent to 70.18 euros as Exane raised its recommendation on the carmaker to “neutral” from “underperform.” Separately, Morgan Stanley lifted its share- price estimate to 72 euros from 66 euros.
Daimler AG (DAI), the maker of Mercedes trucks and luxury cars, rose 2.9 percent to 53.17 euros. Morgan Stanley increased its estimate for the company’s shares to 68 euros from 62 euros.
L’Oreal SA (OR), the world’s biggest cosmetics maker, declined 3.4 percent to 84.94 euros after reporting that second-quarter sales rose 0.9 percent to 4.99 billion euros. That missed the average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for sales of 5.07 billion euros.
Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS) declined 2.5 percent to 363.8 pence after the U.K.’s largest clothing retailer said that first-quarter sales at stores in its domestic market open at least a year climbed 1.7 percent. That fell short of the average economists’ estimate for 2 percent growth.

U.S. stocks fell from earlier highs but still managed to snap a three-session losing streak Wednesday after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank remains ready to provide additional stimulus.
But the big driver behind Wednesday's gains was Bernanke.
After months of adamantly denying another round of stimulus, the Fed chief opened the door a crack during his semi-annual address to Congress.
Bernanke told lawmakers that the central bank is "prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate."
Companies: News Corp. (NWSA, Fortune 500) was a big winner on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Shares spiked nearly 4% after the company withdrew its bid for satellite TV company British Sky Broadcasting. The media giant said it plans to remain a long-term shareholder of BSkyB.
Late Tuesday, Electronic Arts (ERTS) announced it is buying mobile game maker PopCap Games for $750 million in cash and stock. Shares of the company fell 1.1% Wednesday.
After the closing bell, fast food company Yum! Brands (YUM, Fortune 500) and hotel chain Marriott (MAR, Fortune 500) will report quarterly earnings.

07:26
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8275 (Jul 12 low)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8210 (50.0% FIBO of yesterday's falling)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8150 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8127
Support 1: Chf0.8085 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8050 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8000 (psychological mark)

Comments: the pair is consolidated after yesterday's falling. The immediate resistance Chf0.8150. Above is located Chf0.8210. The immediate support - Chf0.8085. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8050. 

06:44
Fitch Ratings late Wednesday downgraded Greece 3 notches to CCC from B+ and removed it from Rating Watch Negative (RWN).
06:35
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6370 (61.8 % FIBO $1.6750-$ 1.5780) 

Resistance 2: $ 1.6260 (June 22 high,  resistance line from May 2, 50.0 % FIBO $1.6750-$ 1.5780)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6190 (session high)
Current price: $1.6139
Support 1 : $1.6080 (Jul 8 high)
Support 2 : $1.5750 (38.2% FIBO $1.5780-$ 1.6190)
Support 3 : $1.5685 (50.0% FIBO $1.5780-$ 1.6190)

Comments: the pair is corrected after yesterday's growth. The immediate support - $1.6130. Below decrease is  possible to $1.6080. The immediate resistance - $1.6190. Above growth is possible to $1.6260. 

 

06:20
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4470 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4370 (Jul  7-8)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4280 (session high)
Current price: $1.4181
Support 1 : $1.4170 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4110 (38.2 % FIBO $1.3840-$ 1.4280)
Support 3 : $1.3950 (Jul 13 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected after yesterday's growth. The immediate support - $1.4200. Below losses are possible to $1.4110. The immediate resistance $1.4280. Above growth is possible to $1.4370. 

05:44
Schedule for today, Thursday, Jul'14'2011:

09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (June) final 0.0% 0.0%
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (June) final Y/Y 2.7% 2.7%
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (June) Y/Y 1.5% 1.5%
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 09.07) 421K 418K
12:30 USA PPI (June) -0.3% 0.2%
12:30 USA PPI (June) Y/Y - 7.3%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (June) 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (June) Y/Y - 2.1%
12:30 USA Retail sales (June) -0.2% -0.2%
12:30 USA Retail sales excluding auto (June) 0.0% 0.3%
14:00 USA Business inventories (May) 0.9% 0.8%
23:50 Japan BoJ meeting minutes (13-14.06)

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