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FED, Bernanke: "high levels of debt also impair the ability of policymakers to respond effectively to future econ shocks and other adverse events."
FED, Bernanke: Must achieve long-term fiscal sustainability by reforming tax and spending policies, need a near-term plan. Should avoid unnecessary threats (eg debt limit delay) and cannot grow our way out of this problem.
FED, Bernanke: interest rates can soar if market loses confidence in fiscal policies
American focus:

The dollar weakened against the majority of its most-traded counterparts as U.S. retail sales fell less than forecast, damping demand for haven assets.
The U.S currency rose against the yen and Swiss franc after the retail sales report, which followed data this month showing slowing manufacturing and rising unemployment. Currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Canadian and Australian dollars, rose the most against major peers as raw material prices gained.
Retail purchases in the U.S. fell 0.2 percent in May, following a 0.3 percent increase in April, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for a 0.5 percent decrease.
Wholesale costs in the U.S. rose more than forecast in May, led by higher prices for fuel, plastics and the fastest rise in 30 years for apparel and textile costs.
“That the data is not negative actually has a big market impact; we’ve seen dollar-yen move higher,” said Jens Nordvig, a managing director of currency research in New York at Nomura Holdings Inc. “Better U.S. data is positive for U.S. growth and therefore supportive of Canada versus the dollar and supportive of Aussie versus the dollar.”
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities rose 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.2 percent.
Earlier China reported increased retail sales and industrial output, spurring appetite for risk.
China’s retail sales rose 16.9 percent last month, while industrial production increased more than economists forecast, the statistics bureau reported. The 5.5 percent increase in China’s consumer-price index was the fastest in almost three years. Lenders were ordered to set aside more cash as reserves.
Today’s data offset concern the fastest-growing major economy is cooling. New loans in China tumbled in May and money supply grew at the slowest pace since 2008, the central bank reported yesterday.
“If you look at the trade numbers that came out of China they are still importing quite a bit,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research with online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “That means their demand remains strong and Aussie and kiwi are natural beneficiaries.”
The Swiss franc dropped versus all of its major counterparts as the government lowered its forecast for 2012 economic growth and said further currency appreciation poses risks to its outlook.

Dow +131.77 at 12084.74, Nasdaq +40.25 at 2679.94, S&P +16.68 at 1288.51

Shares of retailer Best Buy (BBY 30.22, +1.40) had gapped up at the open to their best level in more than a week, but the move was pressured so that gains were pared. The stock has since rebounded to reclaim gains, but it remains shy of its session high. Still, the stock remains one of this session's top performers, thanks largely to an upside earnings surprise in the company's latest quarterly report.
The rest of the retail space is also faring well. In fact, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 50.83, +1.19) is on track for its best single session performance of the month.

Dow +125.14 at 12078.11, Nasdaq +37.46 at 2677.15, S&P +15.42 at 1287.15

The Nasdaq, which extended its year-to-date loss with a slip in the prior session, has rallied today. The strength of the move has actully given it a lead over its counterparts.
While many large-cap tech plays have underpinned the Nasdaq's strength this session, Cisco Systems (CSCO 14.94, -0.11) has been a laggard. The stock's latest loss, which marks an extension of a slide that began several weeks ago, comes in response to an analyst downgrade.

CRT on US data

CRT says +0.8% Apr inventories was slightly lower than forecast "but with Mar revised up to 1.3% vs. 1.0% prior. Sales however were soft, increasing just +0.1% MoM vs. +2.4% March -- but are still +11% YoY. Inventories/Sales ratio upticked to 1.26x, adding to the modest disappointment."

EUR/GBP above stg0.8800

EUR/GBP holding around stg0.8808 (below 55-dma and 50-dma levels at stg0.8810/11). Rate earlier printed highs of stg0.8826, where resistance between stg0.8825/30 comes. Support remains at stg0.8795/85, a break to allow for a deeper move toward stg0.8775/70 with stops below.

Analysts at JPM say "Aafter the latest data we're still at +2% real GDP growth est for Q2".
US: April business inventories +0.8%
ECB, Draghi: We are all against volatility in exchange rates
ECB, Draghi: ECB not in favor of restructuring
ECB, Draghi: Share position of ECB on Greece restructuring
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4400, $1.4535, $1.4600
USD/JPY  Y80.20, Y80.50, Y80.75, Y80.90, Y81.00
EUR/JPY Y118.00
GBP/USD $1.6500
USD/CHF Chf0.8285
EUR/CHF Chf1.2000
AUD/USD $1.0570, $1.0645, $1.0685

EUR/USD still under pressure, holding around $1.443 with bids eyed $1.4420/25.
Before the bell: Stocks may start with gain

U.S. stocks were headed for a higher open Tuesday, following better-than-expected retail sales and manufacturing data.
The first round of economic data this week helped set the stage for an early rally.

Economy: The Commerce Department said retail sales slid 0.2% in May. While it was the first decline in 11 months, it was much less of a decline than economists had expected.
Additionally, the Labor Department issued a brighter report on the producer price index. The PPI rose 0.2% in May, slightly better than the 0.1% that economists had forecast.
U.S. stock futures were higher all morning, on the heels of positive data out of China. The country released a report on industrial production that beat expectations.
Companies: Smartphone makers Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) and Nokia (NOK) agreed to settle their long-running patent dispute early Tuesday. Apple will pay Nokia a one-time sum, and ongoing royalties will go to Nokia. Shares of Nokia jumped 4% in premarket trading, while shares of Apple edged up less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Honda (HMC) released its full-year forecast Tuesday, announcing that it expects a 63.5% drop in 2011 profit. Shares of Honda slid 1.7%.
Shares of Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) climbed more than 5%, after the consumer electronics retailer reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.

USD/CAD back to figure

USD/CAD broke under C$0.9700 after exposing stops on C$0.9715. Rate fell to a new session lows around C$0.9695 before recovered to current C$0.9705.

Reaction on news:

EUR/USD holds around $1.4450 after the better than expected US retail sales data. Meanwhile, rate still holds below $1.4470, where offers mentioned too.

US: May retail sales, ex-mtr veh +0.3%
US: May retail sales -0.2%
US: May PPI core +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y
US: May PPI +0.2% m/m, +7.3% y/y
EU session review: Yen, Dollar falls after China reports

Data released:
08:30     UK     HICP (May)    0.2%    0.2%    1.0%
08:30     UK     HICP (May) Y/Y    4.5%    4.5%    4.5%
08:30     UK     HICP ex EFAT (May) Y/Y    3.3%    3.4%    3.7%
08:30     UK     Retail prices (May)    0.3%    0.4%    0.8%
08:30     UK     Retail prices (May) Y/Y    5.2%    5.3%    5.2%
08:30     UK     RPI-X (May) Y/Y    5.3%    5.3%    5.3%

The yen, the dollar and the Swiss franc fell against most of their major counterparts after reports showed China’s retail sales and industrial production increased, sapping demand for the safest currencies.
The U.S. currency declined against the euro for a second day before data that may show retail sales fell.
“Fears about a global slowdown seem to have been calmed by the improved industrial production data out of China,” said Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, an analyst at Nordea Markets.
China’s statistics bureau said retail sales rose 16.9% last month, while industrial production increased more than economists projected. The 5.5%  acceleration in China’s consumer-price index was in line with economists’ forecasts.
The Bank of Japan today kept the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in a range between zero percent and 0.1%.

EUR/USD failed to hold above session high on $1.4470 and retreated to $1.4420. Later rate tries to recover and rose to $1.4453.

GBP/USD fell from session high on $1.6440 to lows around $1.6375. Currently rate holds around $1.6396.

USD/JPY weakened after challenging Y80.50. Rate fell to the lows near Y80.06. In general, rate trades tight.

The dollar also fell amid signs U.S. growth is slowing. Retail sales declined 0.5% in May, the first drop since June, according to a survey of economists. The producer-price index rose 0.1 percent in May after a 0.8 percent increase in April, another survey showed before today’s data.

EUR/GBP back to stg0.8800

EUR/GBP triggered corporate demand in the stg0.8810/05 area, and printed session lows around stg0.8793 before back to current stg0.8806.

PORTUGAL: Portuguese 10-year spreads widen 5bps to fresh record high at +807bps on talk that Portugal will default on Wednesday.
EUR/USD continues to weaken, currently holding around $1.4426 (76.4% Fibo of $1.4415/72 move). Talks of a possible default in Portugal weight on euro.
EU focus: Euro and Aussie gain ground

The euro edged up across the board on Tuesday after a batch of Chinese economic data calmed some investor worries by showing inflation was not as bad as feared and growth still solid, giving a broad boost to risky assets.

The Australian dollar also gained after the Chinese reports showed industrial production and retail sales posting solid growth. Consumer prices accelerated to a 5.5% annual rate in May, slightly higher than the consensus forecast and the fastest in nearly three years.
The market is now turning its attention to inflation figures in other parts of the world, and most importantly the May data on U.S. retail sales for signs on whether the sudden slowdown in the economy is hampering household spending.
"We've just had some very negative surprises," said a trader at a U.S. bank. "Unless retail sales are worse than expected, maybe we'll have a nice bounce for equities and cross/yen."
The safe-haven Swiss franc held near a record high against the euro amid European debt crisis.
Talks about a second bailout for Greece are getting closer to conclusion as euro zone finance ministers meet later on Tuesday to finalise the details of a bailout.
On Monday, Standard & Poor's slashed Greece's rating to CCC, making the highly indebted country its lowest-rated in the world.
"The clock is ticking on a solution for the Greek debt crisis," BNP Paribas analysts say.

GBP/USD back to the $1.6400

GBP/USD back to the $1.6400 after challenging bids on $1.6380. Further bids seen down to $1.6370 with stops below. A break here to open a deeper move toward $1.6350.

AUD/USD holds higher

AUD/USD holds around $1.0647. Strong bids remain at $1.0620/30 levels. Resistance mentioned at $1.0700/05.

EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD retreats with speculative longs seen paring back ahead of the NY open. Rate extends pullback off earlier highs at $1.4472 toward current levels around $1.4442. Support comes at $1.4415/10.

CHINA, PBOC: Euro debt crisis could worsen, spread
CHINA, PBOC: Warns about rising inflation pressure and asset bubbles
FTSE 5,803 +0.52%, CAC 3,850 +1.12%, DAX 7,206 +1.71%
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4400, $1.4535, $1.4600
USD/JPY  Y80.20, Y80.50, Y80.75, Y80.90, Y81.00
EUR/JPY Y118.00
GBP/USD $1.6500
USD/CHF Chf0.8285
EUR/CHF Chf1.2000
AUD/USD $1.0570, $1.0645, $1.0685

UK DATA: May CPI +0.2% m/m, +4.5% y/y, core CPI +3.3% y/y; May RPI +0.3% m/m, +5.2% y/y, RPIX +5.3% y/y
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei  9,548  +1.05% 
Hang Seng 22,407  -0.45%
S&P/ASX  4,585  +0.50%
Shanghai Composite 2,730  +1.10%

Asian session: The yen and the dollar fell


02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (May) 16.9% 
02:00 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (May) 6.8%
02:00 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May) 5.5%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 13.3% 
03:45 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 14) 0.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) 1.6%

The yen and the dollar fell against most of their major counterparts after reports showed China’s retail sales and industrial production increased, sapping demand for so-called safe-haven currencies.
The yen weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as Asian stocks extended gains, prompting investors to purchase higher-yielding securities. 
The dollar declined versus the pound before U.S. reports today that may show retail sales fell and producer-price inflation slowed, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
The dollar also fell amid signs U.S. growth is slowing. Retail sales fell 0.5 percent in May, the first drop since June, according to a survey of economists before the Commerce Department report today. The producer-price index rose 0.1 percent in May after a 0.8 percent increase in April, another survey showed before today’s data.

EUR/USD: the pair  grown in $1.4440 area .
GBP/USD: the pair   grown in  $1.6420 area. 
USD/JPY: the pair  grown in  Y80.30 area. 
It is a busy week for UK data, starting at 0830GMT today with inflation data for May. CPI looks set to continue at levels well over double the BOE's 2% target through into early 2012. Expected hikes in house hold energy tariffs will boost CPI up to annual rates close to 5% from the late summer. 
US data starts at 1230GMT with PPI and retail sales. At 1400GMT, business inventories are expected to rise 0.9% in April, as factory inventories were already reported up 1.3% in the month and wholesale inventories rose 0.8%.

Forex: Monday's review

The euro slid to a record low versus the Swiss franc as concern increased that European leaders may not be able to find common ground on a Greek bailout.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble are at odds about whether Greek bondholders should be compelled to incur losses in the nation’s second bailout in 14 months. 
The dollar dropped against most of its counterparts before a report this week forecast to show U.S. retail sales declined in May.  Retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.5% in May, the first drop since June. The Commerce Department will release the report June 14.
Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, said that any bailout for Greece must include “voluntary” investor participation. Juncker is trying to bridge the gap between Germany’s Schaeuble, who wants Greek bondholders to accept longer maturities of up to seven years on the debt, and Trichet, who said imposing losses on creditors would be akin to a default.
New Zealand’s dollar fell after its second-biggest city was struck by aftershocks of the February earthquake.
The yen weakened versus most of its major peers after a report showed Japan’s factory orders declined 3.3% in April from March, when they rose 1%, the Cabinet Office said today.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair   grown above   $1.4400.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair   grown in  $1.6370 area. 
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in Y80.20 area.

It is a busy week for UK data, starting at 0830GMT today with inflation data for May. CPI looks set to continue at levels well over double the BOE's 2% target through into early 2012. Expected hikes in house hold energy tariffs will boost CPI up to annual rates close to 5% from the late summer. 
US data starts at 1230GMT with PPI and retail sales. At 1400GMT, business inventories are expected to rise 0.9% in April, as factory inventories were already reported up 1.3% in the month and wholesale inventories rose 0.8%.

Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks declined, sending the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average to its first drop in a week, amid concern that the global economic recovery is slowing.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), Japan’s largest company by sales, lost 2.4 percent after the automaker said profit will fall almost a third this year following March’s record earthquake.
Honda Motor Co. lost 2.5 percent to 2,911 yen and Nissan Motor Co. slid 1.1 percent to 784 yen.
Bridgestone Corp., Japan’s No. 1 tiremaker by market value, sank 2.5 percent.
Rival Sumitomo Rubber Industries slid 1.9 percent to 961 yen, while Yokohama Rubber Co. dropped 1.4 percent to 433 yen.
Japanese machinery orders fell for the first time in four months in April, an indication that companies are reluctant to spend following the earthquake disaster. Factory orders fell 3.3 percent in April from March, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.
Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s biggest oil explorer by sales, slid 1.7 percent after oil prices declined.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., the nation’s second-largest oil explorer by revenue, slumped 1.7 percent to 3,835 yen.

European stocks advanced, rebounding from a 2 1/2 month low, led by a rally in Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. as investors speculated that the mining company may receive a takeover approach.
ENRC jumped 4.7 percent after the Sunday Times reported that Glencore International Plc, the world’s largest commodity trader, may make a bid. Kazakhmys Plc (KAZ) climbed 2.2 percent.
Banco Popolare SC (BP) advanced on speculation that the Italian lender may avoid holding a rights offer.
Credit Agricole SA may be among the companies interested in buying Agos, the Italian newspaper said without saying where it got the information.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) rose 1.4 percent to 47.6 pence. The Sunday Times reported that the bank may cut 15,000 jobs as part of a strategy to save 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion) to be announced by Chief Executive Officer Antonio Horta-Osorio on June 30.
Carnival Plc paced declining shares after the company cut its forecast. Carnival dropped 2 percent to 2,254 pence
Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (IMT) slid 1.4 percent to 2,056 pence after Europe’s second-biggest tobacco company said reduced cigarette prices in Spain will restrain full-year profit.
Aggreko Plc (AGK) sank 3.2 percent to 1,874 pence after Numis Securities Ltd. downgraded the world’s largest provider of mobile power supplies to “sell” from “hold.”

U.S. stocks closed little changed Monday, as investors worked through a downgrade of Greece's credit rating, tempering earlier investor enthusiasm for a series of corporate deals.
Stocks opened higher following a series of deals. But the gains were short lived after credit agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its rating on Greece to "CCC." S&P also kept its negative outlook on Greece.
The downgrade pressured the currency and commodity markets. Oil fell 2% to $97.30 a barrel, silver prices slid more than 4% and and gold prices dropped 1% to $1,515.60 an ounce.
Energy and material stocks were hit hard, with Cabot Oil (COG) tumbling 3.5% and Halliburton (HAL, Fortune 500) shares down more than 2%.
Apparel company VF Corp. (VFC, Fortune 500), the maker of Wrangler and The North Face brands, agreed to buy Timberland for $43 per share -- creating a $10 billion apparel and footwear company. Shares of Timberland (TBL) rose 44% and VF Corp.'s stock jumped 10%.
Wendy's/Arby's Group (WEN) rose 1%, after the restaurant operator agreed to sell Arby's to a private equity group led by Roark Capital Group. Wendy's will retain an 18.5% ownership interest in the roast beef chain's business.
These deals were some of the first M&A activity Wall Street had seen in weeks.
Companies: Sears Holdings (SHLD, Fortune 500) was the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500, rising more than 5%.
Honeywell (HON, Fortune 500) announced plans to acquire EMS Technologies (ELMG) for $491 million in cash. Honeywell shares edged higher, while EMS shares jumped 32%.
European Insurance company Allied World Assurance (AWH) agreed to buy U.S. insurance company Transatlantic Holdings (TRH) for approximately $3.2 billion in an all-stock deal. Transatlantic shares rose 10%, while Allied World shares were down 4.5%.
Shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) rose 3% despite a Wall Street Journal report that said the bank waited three weeks before notifying customers of a credit card hack attack.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (May 31 high) 

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (Jun 3 high) 
Resistance 1: Y80.60/70 (38.2 % FIBO Y82.30-Y79.70, Jun 14 high) 
Current price: Y80.28
Support 1:Y80.10 (support line from Jun 8)  
Support 2:Y79.70 (Jun 8 low)  
Support 2:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  

Comments: the pair grown. The immediate resistance - Y80.60/70. Abvoe growth is possible to Y81.00. The immediate support - Y80.10. Below losses are possible to Y79.70.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8540 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8330)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8470 (Jun 13 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8390 (МА(200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.8362
Support 1: Chf0.8330 (Jun 6-7 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8200 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The immediate support - Chf0,8330. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8300. The immediate resistance Chf0.8390. Above is located Chf0.8470. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6550 (May 31 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6460 (resistance line from May 2)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6430 (session high)
Current price: $1.6423
Support 1 : $1.6350 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6280 (Jun 13 intraday low)
Support 1 : $1.6215 (Jun 10 and 13 low)

Comments: the pair grown. The immediate resistance - $1.6430. Above growth is possible to $1.6460. The immediate support $1.6350. Below  decrease is possible to $1.6280. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4510 (50.0 % FIBO $1.4990-$ 1.4320)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4460 (38.2 % FIBO $1.4990-$ 1.4320)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4440 (session high)
Current price: $1.4438
Support 1 : $1.4380 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4320 (Jun 10 and 13 low)
Support 3 : $1.4250 (61.8% FIBO $1.3970-$ 1.4690)
Comments: the pair grown. The immediate resistance $1.4440. Above growth is possible to $1,4460. The immediate support $1,4380. Below losses are possible to $1.4320. 

Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jun 14'2011:

02:00 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (May) 6.8% 6.5% 6.8%

02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (May) 16.9% 17.0% 17.1%
02:00 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May) 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 13.3% 13.1% 13.4%
03:30 Japan BoJ meeting announcement 0.00-0.10% 0.00-0.10%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (April) final 1.0% 1.0%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (April) final Y/Y -14.0% -14.0%
08:30 UK HICP (May) 0.2% 1.0%
08:30 UK HICP (May) Y/Y 4.5% 4.5%
08:30 UK HICP ex EFAT (May) Y/Y 3.4% 3.7%
08:30 UK Retail prices (May) 0.4% 0.8%
08:30 UK Retail prices (May) Y/Y 5.3% 5.2%
08:30 UK RPI-X (May) Y/Y 5.3% 5.3%
12:30 USA PPI (May) 0.1% 0.8%
12:30 USA PPI (May) Y/Y - 6.8%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (May) 0.2% 0.3%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (May) Y/Y - 2.1%
12:30 USA Retail sales (May) -0.4% 0.5%
12:30 USA Retail sales excluding auto (May) 0.3% 0.6%
14:00 USA Business inventories (April) 0.8% 1.0%

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