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14.04.2011
18:48
Dow -4.54 at 12266.45, Nasdaq -9.18 at 2752.35, S&P -1.43 at 1312.98

Financials continue to underperform the rest of the market. The sector's 0.8% loss comes amid weakness in diversified bank stocks, but also from investment banks. The latter space has been hurt by news that Goldman Sachs (GS 155.91, -4.26) has been accused by a Senate subcommittee for lying in a testimony during 2010. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (DB 60.35, -1.03) and Credit Suisse (CS 44.11, -0.55) were both downgraded by analysts at Societe Generale.

18:32
FED: Philly Fed's Plosser said Fed cares more about headline inflation than the core rate.
17:42
FED: Philly Fed's Plosser repeats his call to begin reversing monetary accomodation in the not-too-distant future.
17:31
Dow -3.74 at 12268.42, Nasdaq -10.74 at 2751.20, S&P -1.77 at 1312.64

The Dow and the S&P 500 have made an upward push that has them at session highs. The effort has actually left the Dow only a few points away from the flat line. The Nasdaq continues to lag its counterparts, though.
Crude oil prices and gold prices have rallied to gains of more than 1% amid the dollar's downturn. Oil prices were recently quoted at $108.40 per barrel while gold is trading hands at $1474 per ounce.

16:39
American focus:

The euro erased its decline against the dollar on speculation the sovereign-debt crisis in nations including Portugal and Greece will be contained.
The euro erased its drop as European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said he’s “quite confident” the financial-aid package being negotiated for Portugal will result in the debt crisis being contained.
The dollar fell to its lowest level this month against the yen as U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose and producer prices advanced at a slower pace, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low. The euro slid earlier as concern Greece will have to restructure its debt pushed its bond yields to record highs.
“The developments in the euro-zone debt markets took some attention early in the day, but didn’t continue, so the euro began to move higher,” said Steve Barrow, head of G-10 currency research at Standard Bank Plc in London. “The U.S. data this morning didn’t help the dollar along any further.”

16:19
Dow -43.74 at 12227.25, Nasdaq -16.06 at 2745.46, S&P -5.04 at 1309.37

Stocks continue to drift deeper into negative territory, but they remain well above session lows.
Despite the broad market's lackluster action, JB Hunt Transportation (JBHT 47.57, +2.97) shares set a fresh 52-week high on the back of a better-than-expected earnings report and upside guidance, which comes in the face of elevated oil prices. The stock has eased off of its session high, but continues to sport a gain of almost 7%.
Strength in shares of JBHT have helped prop up the company's peers. In turn, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has put together a 0.2% gain.

15:36
BOJ, Shirakawa:disaster damage to be 3%-5% of nominal GDP.
15:33
Dow -40.41 at 12230.58, Nasdaq -12.61 at 2748.91, S&P -4.43 at 1309.98
14:01
EUR/JPY challenges Y120.00/10

EUR/JPY probes offers between Y120.00/10 that are able to capp the recovery off the lows at Y119.3. Cross currently trading around Y120.01. Support seen back at Y119.50 ahead of Y119.30. Above Y120.10 to open a move toward Y120.50/60.

13:32
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD $1.4535, $1.4500, $1.4450, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.50, Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.25, Y84.50, Y85.00
GBP/USD $1.6005
GBP/JPY Y138.90
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0320

13:15
Before the bell: Stocks set for lower open as banks slump

U.S. stocks were expected to take a hit early Thursday, as the world's largest banks fell and dragged on equity markets, and the Labor Department reported an expected increase in jobless claims.

Late Wednesday, the Senate issued a 600-page report slamming Goldman Sachs as a "case study" of the recklessness and greed.
In premarket trading, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) shares fell 1.2%, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) fell 0.5%, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) shares were down 0.4%.
Economy: The Labor Department reported that first-time jobless claims increased by 27,000, to a weekly total of 412,000. The number came in higher than expected.
Wall Street was expecting initial claims to have totaled 385,000 claims last week.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index rose 0.7% in March. Producer prices were expected to have risen 1.1% in March.
Companies: Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reports its quarterly results after the close. Analysts expect the Internet search company's first-quarter profit will jump to $8.10 a share, compared to the $6.76 a share last year.
Google's stock was near its September 2007 levels, falling 9% since Eric Schmidt announced in January that he'd be stepping down as CEO.



13:00
US, Tsy Sec Geithner: This is time to restore fiscal sustainability and we have to get Congress to put restraints on itself.
  • no way that US will court risk of default;
  • now is the right time to focus on l-t budget issues;
  • US is well positioned to benefit from EM expansion.
12:57
US, Tsy Sec Geithner: This is time to restore fiscal sustainability and we have to get Congress to put restraints on itself.
  • no way that US will court risk of default;
  • now is the right time to focus on l-t budget issues;
  • US is well positioned to benefit from EM expansion.
12:38
DB ests Q1 real GDP at 2.8% but are keeping their Q3 and Q4 GDP forecasts intact at 4.1% and 4.3%
12:32
US: Mar core PPI +0.3%, +1.9% YOY
12:31
US: Mar PPI +0.7%, +5.8% YOY
12:31
US: Initial Unemploy claims +27k to 412K in the Apr 9 wk
12:15
USD/CAD retreats

USD/CAD triggered stops above C$0.9660 to print a session high on C$0.9670 before profit take selling emerged to drag rate back to C$.09645/50. Break above  $0.9680 to open potential for a move toward C$0.9800. Traders earlier suggested that a break of C$0.9710 brings offers and stops there.

12:02
EU session review: Euro drops

The euro tumbled on concern Europe’s most indebted nations including Greece may be forced to reorganize their debt payments to bondholders.
The euro weakened against the dollar, yen, Swiss franc and pound.
The Japanese currency strengthened after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Die Welt newspaper that Greece may need to negotiate with creditors should an audit in June question its ability to make debt repayments. Portuguese and Greek bonds slumped, driving yields to record highs.
“The comments from Schaeuble are critical and represent a change in view that some form of debt restructuring cannot be ruled out,” said Michael Derks, head of currency strategy at FXPro Financial Services. “There seems to be a greater focus on these peripheral issues and that’s dragging the single currency down.”
The New Zealand dollar strengthened to a five-month high against the greenback after demand rose at a NZ$700 million ($556 million) auction of government bonds.
Australia’s dollar reversed earlier losses as Asian stocks advanced, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
Australia’s dollar weakened earlier after leaders of the so-called BRICS nations said rising commodity prices posed a threat to global growth and the Monetary Authority of Singapore stepped up its fight against inflation.

EUR/USD initially rose to the highs on $1.4480, but Schaeuble's comments dragged the rate down to session lows around $1.4362. Later rate recovered to $1.4395.

GBP/USD printed session lows near $1.6300 - at $1.6285 before back to $1.6335.

USD/JPY weakened from Y83.80 to Y83.00. rate failed to break the figure that spurred the retreat to Y83.16.

The Labor Department is scheduled to release its latest reports on first-time unemployment claims and producer prices for March at 1230 GMT. Analysts expect initial claims to have edged higher by 3,000 to 385,000 claims last week, while producer prices are expected to have risen 1.1% in March.




11:49
GBP/USD recovers

GBP/USD recovers to offers around $1.6320, while EUR/GBP holds below support at stg0.8820. Above $1.6330 the rate can extend move toward $1.6350 (76.4% $1.6366/1.6287).

11:32
EUR/USD falls

EUR/USD fell to the lows around $1.4363 (200-hma). Rate currently trades around $1.4380/85. Further demand seen into $1.4350 with stops below.


11:14
EUR/JPY corrects down

EUR/JPY broke of support at Y119.70 and fell to Y119.30. Bids earlier reported here. A break below to allow for a deeper move toward Y119.20 ahead of Y118.80/70. Resistance noted now at Y119.70/80.

11:00
USD/CAD probes stops

USD/CAD currently challenges stops placed at C$0.9660. The rate seen messy if breaks above C$0.9710. Rate currently trades around C$0.9658.

10:45
GBP/USD fell below $1.6300

GBP/USD back below $1.6300 to print a new lows around $1.6285. Support remains at $1.6280 ($1.6281 76.4% $1.6355/1.6366), a break to open a deeper move toward $1.6255/45. While rate can hold above leaves open a recovery, with resistance seen at $1.6350/55.

10:28
EU focus: Dollar hits fresh 16-month low

The dollar hit a fresh 16-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday as expectations grew the Federal Reserve would keep its loose monetary policy, widening interest rate differentials in favour of higher-yielding currencies.


The tone for the dollar remained weak after Wednesday's U.S. retail sales data and the Fed's Beige Book report did nothing to change the view the central bank would keep its $600 billion asset buying programme until June.
In contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to follow up its April interest rate hike with more tightening later this year, a factor keeping the single currency near a 15-month peak against the dollar.
The dollar index fell to 74.676, bringing its losses this year to around 5%.
"The fact that the U.S. recovery is continuing will not become a trigger point for Fed policy," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays Capital.
"Unemployment, although improving, is still relatively high and the Fed is not going to bring forward the end of its loose monetary policy. The dollar is finding no fresh factors to rise on."

10:11
GBP/USD holds at $1.6300

GBP/USD triggered demand interest between $1.6320/15 and currently challenges $1.6300. Rate gets some support from EUR/GBP extending its break below stg0.8860 to stg0.8834. Next support in the cross seen at stg0.8825/20. For cable support seen at $1.6280 ($1.6281 76.4% $1.6255/1.6366). Resistance now seen at $1.6350/55.

09:52
EUR/JPY probes Y120.00

EUR/JPY continues to back off from earlier highs at Y121.36. Cross went through its Asian base at Y120.19 to current Y120.00. Bids have been reported in place down to Y120.00, a break to allow for a deeper move toward Y119.80/70.

09:39
USD/JPY under pressure

USD/JPY breaks below overnight base at Y83.20 to extend lows to Y83.11. Rate earlier broke under support at Y83.30. Rate tries to bounces back but no great progress seen. A break of Y83.00 to open a deeper move toward Y82.75/70.

09:28
FTSE -0.57% 5,976, CAC -0.53% 3,985, DAX -0.27% 7,158
09:08
ECB BINI SMAGHI: At end of easing cycle, rates low, as in 2005
  • Low rates less justified as deflation risks recede
  • ECB studying how to return to competitive bidding on refi ops
  • Most data confirm sustained global growth 
  • Sustained global growth also transmitted to euro area
  • Euro's effective real fx rate 10% lower than 2005
  • ECB can't base monetary policy on 2-3 nations w/10% of EMU GDP
  • Greek debt restructuring would devastate greece
  • Debt restructure would bring Greek economy to knees
  • Greece restructure would strengthen eurosceptics
  • Debt restructure would cause Greek bank system failure
  • Other states must not push Greece to restructure debt
  • No option for greece but to implement EU-IMF plan
  • Post-2013, debt restructures must remain "exceptional"
  • ECB to suspend Portugal rating criteria if it accepts EU-IMF plan 

 




 

08:53
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4535, $1.4500, $1.4450, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.50, Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.25, Y84.50, Y85.00
GBP/USD $1.6005
GBP/JPY Y138.90
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0320

08:13
Asian stocks close

Hang Seng -0.5% 24,014.00
Shanghai Composite -0.25% 3,042.64
Nikkei +0.13%  9653.92

07:56
Asian session: The dollar fell

Data:
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (Apr) 3.5%

The dollar fell toward a 15-month low against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will lag behind the European Central Bank in raising interest rates.
The common currency erased earlier declines versus the yen before data forecast to show European inflation quickened last month. 
New Zealand’s dollar reached a five-month high versus the U.S. currency after its government sold NZ$700 million ($556 million) in bonds. 
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, lost 0.4 percent to 74.672, after touching 74.642, the lowest since December 2009.
Euro-region consumer prices rose 1.3 percent in March from the previous month, when they gained 0.4 percent, according to economists surveyed before the European Union’s statistics report tomorrow. The ECB last week raised its main refinancing rate to 1.25 percent from a record-low 1 percent and left the door open for further increases.
The U.S. consumer-price index advanced 0.5 percent in March, the biggest gain since June 2009, a separate survey showed before the Labor Department data tomorrow.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high above a mark $1.4500.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1.6360.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y83.40.

At 0800GMT, the ECB publishes the monthly bulletin for April.

07:52
Forex: Wednesday's review

The euro edged to a 15-month high against the dollar.
The euro was lifted by reported demand from sovereign names looking to recycle dollar proceeds as the single currency remained supported by the prospect of further rate rises in the euro zone while policy stays loose in the United States and Japan.
Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose, buoyed by a recovery in commodity prices and stocks.
An Australian sentiment index rose 1.2 percent to 105.3 this month from March, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey released today. 

House prices in New Zealand increased 0.5 percent in March, an index published by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. showed. 

EUR/USD: the pair  tested area $1.4520 then decreased in around $1.4440.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6230-$ 1.6310.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83.50-Y84.30.

At 0800GMT, the ECB publishes the monthly bulletin for April.

07:17
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Japanese stocks rose for the first time in three days led by carmakers after Nomura Holdings Inc. called the shares “oversold,” and Tokyo Electric Power Co. jumped on a report other utilities may be asked to share the cost of the Fukushima nuclear accident.
The Topix has lost 9.3 percent since a record earthquake and tsunami on March 11 that devastated Japan’s northeast coast and crippled a Tokyo Electric plant in Fukushima.
Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co., the Japan’s second- and third-largest automakers, rose at least 2.9 percent.
Automakers also got a boost after the Nikkei newspaper said Renesas Electronics, a supplier of chips used in cars, will restart production in June, one month ahead of schedule, at a plant damaged by the quake. The chipmaker gained 7.6 percent to 698 yen.
Tokyo Electric surged 12 percent, while Kansai Electric Power Co. and other utilities plunged.
Commodity-related companies declined after crude and metal prices plunged.
Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s largest energy exploration company, declined 1.6 percent to 610,000 yen.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (1662), the country’s second-biggest driller, retreated 2 percent to 3,930 yen.
Mitsubishi Corp. (8058), Japan’s largest commodities trader, lost 0.4 percent to 2,241 yen. Mitsui & Co., the second-biggest, declined 1.4 percent to 1,451 yen.
European stocks gained, rebounding from their biggest drop in four weeks, as the region’s factory output rose and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reported record profit.
Alcatel-Lucent SA jumped 7.5 percent as Morgan Stanley recommended the shares.
ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), the designer of chips that help power Apple Inc.’s iPhone, rallied 6.8 percent.
Construction and materials companies posted the biggest advance in the Stoxx 600 after Exane raised its recommendation on the shares to “outperform.” Holcim Ltd. (HOLN), Europe’s second- biggest cement maker, increased 4.4 percent to 73.95 Swiss francs, its biggest advance in 11 months. The brokerage raised its rating on the company to “neutral” from “underperform.”
European industrial production growth accelerated in February, led by demand for intermediate and capital goods, indicating that the economy is gathering strength.
Factory output in the 17-member euro area rose for a fifth straight month, increasing 0.4 percent from January, when it advanced 0.2 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The median of 34 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg News survey had predicted a gain of 0.8 percent.
Lonza Group AG (LONN) sank 6.1 percent to 72.45 francs, the largest drop in 18 months, after the maker of chemicals for drug companies predicted that its first-half performance will be weaker than last year because of the strong franc and rising raw-material prices.
Stocks ended higher Wednesday, thanks to a late-afternoon turnaround following President Obama's speech unveiling his plan to cut the U.S. budget deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years.
Despite a strong open -- thanks to better-than-expected earnings and revenue from JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) -- stocks spent the early part of Wednesday's session in the red.
The losses came after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that mortgage-related losses would continue for some time, and warned that investors should not expect additional dividend increases beyond the 25 cents set for this quarter. Shares of the bank slid almost 1%. JPMorgan is the first major bank to report first-quarter results.
But the market again reversed course in the afternoon after Obama laid down a series of spending and deficit targets, adding that he wants $3 in spending cuts for every $1 in additional tax revenue.
Economy: Economists are continuing to scan the latest data for the domino effect of rising prices on other areas of the economy.
Before the market opened, the government reported retail sales rose 0.4% in March. The number was slightly below forecasts. Stripping out gas, retail sales were only up 0.1% for the month.
"Clearly, higher commodity prices are factoring into higher retail sales," said Aichi Amemiya, economist with Nomura Securities.
Retail sales for the prior two months were revised significantly higher, causing Nomura to raise its daily revised estimates for first-quarter growth to 2.3%, from 2.1% before.
A separate government report showed that business inventories rose 0.5% in February, slightly below forecasts.
Companies: Shares of Tyco International (TYC) fell 0.6%, after French company Schneider Electric denied reports that it is trying to buy the Swiss manufacturing conglomerate for $30 billion.

07:16
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.80 (Apr 12 high) 
Resistance 2:Y84.30 (Apr 13 high) 
Resistance 1:Y83.90 (resistance line from Apr 8) 
Current price: Y83.59
Support 1:Y83.30 (Apr 13 low)    
Support 2:Y82.50 (Mar 31 low)    
Support 3:Y81.50 (Mar 29 low)    
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest resistance - Y83.90. Above growth is possible to Y84.30. The nearest support - Y83,30. Below losses are possible to Y82.50. 
                                                              

07:14
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9100 (Apr 11 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8990 (Apr 13 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8960 (resistance line from Apr 6)
Current price: Chf0.8954
Support 1: Chf0.8920 (Mar 16 and 13 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8900 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8900 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support - Chf0,8920. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8900. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8960. Above is located Chf0.8990. 

06:35
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (Jan'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6430 (Apr 8-11 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6310 (Apr 13 high)
Current price: $1.6299
Support 1 : $1.6230 (Apr 12 low)
Support 2 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Support 3 : $1.6090 (Apr 5 low)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support $1.6230. Below is possible testings of around $1.6180. The nearest resistance - area $1.6310. Above growth is possible to $1.6430. 

06:12
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4770 (Dec 12'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4520 (Apr 12-13 high)
Current price: $1.4456
Support 1 : $1.4410 (around of session low and Apr 13 low)
Support 2 : $1.4375 (Apr 12 low)
Support 3 : $1.4350 (Apr 6 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4460. The nearest support $1,4410. Below losses are possible to $1.4375. The nearest resistance - $1.4520. Above growth is possible to $1,4580.

05:13
Schedule for today, Thursday, Apr 14 2011:

12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 09.04) 387K 382K
12:30 USA PPI (March) 0.9% 1.6%
12:30 USA PPI (March) Y/Y - 5.6%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (March) 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 USA PPI excluding food and energy (March) Y/Y - 1.8%
20:30 USA M2 money supply (04.04), bln - -1.1

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