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14.03.2011
18:17
Dow -106.87 at 11937.53, Nasdaq -22.40 at 2693.21, S&P -13.54 at 1900.74

The stock market's recent attempt to lift off of session lows has run into resistance. That has left stocks to continue trading with sizable losses, although the stock market is still above its worst level of the day.
Oil prices have been paring losses this afternoon. The energy component had been just beneath $99.50 per barrel in electronic trade this morning, but contracts are now quoting oil prices at $100.80 per barrel, which makes for only a 0.4% loss.
Oil's rebound is helping the energy sector make a push toward the neutral line. The energy sector is now down just 0.2%. Tech, down 0.7%, makes up the next best performing sector.

18:08
EUR/USD challenged offers on $1.4000 and currently holds around $1.3986. Stops above $1.4010 remain intact.
18:02
EU, Olli Rehn: Still plenty of uncertainty regarding economic outlook, important to look at inflation outlook.
17:53
GBP/USD holds higher

GBP/USD printed high on $1.6200 but cable has settled back modestly from there to trade around $1.6171 as earlier mentioned offers at $1.6200/10 capped. Further supply seen at $1.6220 though a few stops are also seen mixed in.

17:12
US focus: Euro strengthens as EU leaders broaden rescue plan

The euro advanced after European Union leaders agreed on a retooled bailout plan for the region’s most indebted nations.
The 17-nation currency rose for a second day against the dollar after regional leaders agreed during the weekend to widen the scope of a rescue fund aimed at resolving the debt crisis and cut the cost of loans to Greece.
“The European accord is quite significant and a better outcome than the market was expecting so that will be a positive for the euro,” said Khoon Goh, head of market economics and strategy at ANZ National Bank Ltd. “With the European Central Bank looking to hike rates in April the euro could be ripe to break that key $1.40 level in the near term.”
The ECB’s governing council is scheduled to meet March 17.
The yen erased a gain against the dollar as Japan’s central bank said it will add 15 trillion yen ($183 billion) to the financial system and increase its asset-purchase program following last week’s earthquake.
BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board also doubled the facility that buys assets from government bonds to exchange- traded funds to 10 trillion yen. Besides the 15 trillion yen of emergency funds deployed, the central bank offered to buy 3 trillion yen of government bonds from lenders in repurchase agreements starting March 16.
Borrowing costs were cut near zero in 2008 as officials sought to revive growth and end deflation. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said earlier today that he’s closely watching the foreign exchange, stock and Japanese bond markets.
“The yen reached 80.62 and we bounced off of that as the Bank of Japan responded with flooding the market with liquidity,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.. “The yen will consolidate around these levels until we get a clearer picture.”
Australia’s dollar slid. Traders have cut bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates over the next year.

16:27
EUR/USD printed high at $1.39969 with still plenty of offers visible ahead of $1.4000.
16:00
US STOCKS: Dow remains in the red by about 120 points and close to its morning low. Nasdaq is down 30.
15:08
GBP/USD heads for offers

Tech traders highlight the $1.6087 level as pivotal for GBP/USD. While rate can hold above seen keeping focus on the upside with potential for a test on $1.6140. Rate currently trades around $1.6123. Offers said to remain in place from this high and extending to $1.6130. Stronger offers noted from $1.6140 through to $1.6150 with stops above.

14:49
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4000$1.4035, $1.4050, $1.4080/85
Bids:$1.3930, $1.3905/00, $1.3875/70, $1.3850/40

USD/JPY
Offers: Y82.20, Y82.45/50, Y82.70
Bids: Y81.20, Y80.60, Y80.25/20, Y80.10/15


GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6130, $1.6140/50, $1.6180/85, $1.6200, $1.6220
Bids: $1.6080/70, $1.6050, $1.6010/00

14:38
DB: higher energy prices pose some downside risk to growth

"Higher energy prices pose some downside risk to growth, but the impact is more likely to be felt next quarter assuming oil prices remain over $100 per barrel. A substantial portion of the growth in the current quarter is likely to come from inventory restocking." They est auto sales will fall with higher gas prices. Better household wealth and easier credit may be offsets.

14:07
Dow -50.33 at 11994.07, Nasdaq -9.51 at 2706.00, S&P -6.17 at 1297.95

Stocks are under pressure in the early going. They had started to pare their opening gap down, but pressure has picked back up to take the broader market another leg lower.
Utilities stocks are under the most pressure at the moment. The sector's 1.8% loss has been led by weakness among electric utilities (-2.0%), which have been implicated by concerns about Japan's nuclear plants, which have been compromised by the massive earthquake that hit the country late last week.

13:46
EU JUNCKER: Think financial markets have understood determination of EMU
  • Decisions taken Friday point in right direction
13:24
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to open lower Monday, after Japan's leading stock index plunged in reaction to the damage from last week's massive earthquake and tsunami.


The Nikkei ended down 6.2%, the index's biggest one-day drop since late 2008.
U.S. stocks ended higher Friday, despite news of the massive earthquake and tsunami in Japan. But all three major indexes ended lower for the week -- a week that included the ongoing civil war in Libya and planned protests in Saudi Arabia. The Dow and S&P 500 fell more than 1%, while the Nasdaq sank almost 2.5%.
World markets:

Companies: The U.S.-traded shares of some companies based in Japan were down sharply in premarket trade Monday.
Shares of Canon (CAJ), based in Tokyo, were down more than 6% in premarket trading. Toyota (TM) shares were off 7.5% early Monday, while Sony (SNE) was down 8.4%.
Early Monday, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) said it would acquire Lubrizol for $135 per share in an all-cash transaction. That's a 28% premium over Lubrizol's closing price Friday. The deal, valued at approximately $9.7 billion, is one of Berkshire's biggest acquisitions ever.
Shares of Berkshire (BRKB) edged lower, while Lubrizol's (LZ) stock jumped almost 27% in premarket trading.
With oil prices under pressure, airline stocks could gain some attention during Monday's trading day. Shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) were down more than 5.4% in premarket trading.
Oil for April delivery slipped $1.52, or 1.5%, to $99.64 a barrel on concerns about the fallout from Japan's earthquake.
Gold futures for April delivery added $4.90, or 0.3%, to $1,426.70 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was little changed, with the yield holding at 3.39%.

13:08
Oil failed to break above $100.00 mark

April WTI Crude picking up with a European session high of $99.89 after earlier look at $98.46, but running into some hourly trendline resistance ahead of $100.00. Support now seen at $97.00 with resistance at $101.45.

12:32
European session:

The euro advanced versus most of its counterparts after European Union leaders agreed on a retooled bailout plan for the region’s most indebted nations.
The 17-nation common currency rose for a second day against the dollar after European leaders agreed last weekend to widen the scope of a rescue fund aimed at resolving the sovereign-debt crisis and cut the cost of loans to Greece.
“The euro has benefited as the preliminary EU summit was positively received,” said Adam Myers, a senior foreign- exchange strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. “The summit delivered more than the market expected, and that’s a short-term positive for the euro.”
Euro-area leaders negotiated an accord to allow primary- market bond purchases that will offer a lifeline to aid recipients in return for austerity commitments. The agreement broke a deadlock as policy makers sought to extinguish a crisis that has raged for more than a year and forced Greece and Ireland to seek financial aid.
Leaders will allow the facility to spend its full 440 billion-euro ($613 billion) capacity, removing restrictions that would have capped outlays at about 250 billion euros, though it won’t be used to finance bond buybacks for debt-strapped states. A final agreement is slated for a summit on March 24-25.
“The European accord is quite significant and a better outcome than the market was expecting, so that will be a positive for the euro,” said Khoon Goh, head of market economics and strategy at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington. “With the ECB looking to hike rates in April, the euro could be ripe to break that key $1.40 level in the near term.”
The European Central Bank’s governing council is scheduled to meet on March 17.
The yen declined versus most of its 16 major counterparts as the central bank said it will add 15 trillion yen ($183 billion) to the financial system and increase its asset-purchase program.
The yen fell against the dollar, erasing its earlier advance to a four-month high, as the Bank of Japan pumped record funds into an economy reeling from the nation’s strongest earthquake. The emergency measure represents the Japanese central bank’s first same-day repurchase operations since May, when it added funds to stabilize markets amid the Greek crisis.
BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board also doubled the facility that buys assets from government bonds to exchange- traded funds to 10 trillion yen. Besides the 15 trillion yen of emergency funds deployed, the central bank offered to buy 3 trillion yen of government bonds from lenders in repurchase agreements starting March 16.

EUR/USD: having got support at $1.3900, the rate renewed its rise and reached $1.3980, before eased back a bit.
GBP/USD: tested the key resistance $1.6120, before fell back under the figure.
USD/JPY: peaket around Y82.47, before eased back to Y81.80.






11:40
OECD: Jan leading indicators point to expansion in most countries.
  • Robust growth seen in Germany and U.S; pick-up in France and Canada;
  • Slow but stable growth seen in U.K.; moderate downturn in Italy;
  • Jan leading OECD indicator +0.4 pt m/m, +2.1 pts y/y;
  • Indicators for other economies little changed in January.
10:34
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.3850, $1.3750
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.70, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6200
USD/CHF Chf0.9210
AUD/USD $0.9900, $1.0000, $1.0025, $1.0100, $1.0200
AUD/JPY Y83.25
NZD/USD $0.7380
NZD/JPY Y61.50

10:09
FTSE -0.95 -0.02% 5,827.72, CAC +2.80 +0.07% 3,931.48, Dax -66.38 -0.95% 6,915.11
10:01
Industrial production in the Eurozone rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.3% on the month in January, matching December's increase, but narrowing the annual increase to 6.6%
09:56
BOJ SHIRAKAWA: HEADING OFF WORSENING SENTIMENT IMPORTANT
  • INJECTED RECORD FUNDS AS FUND DEMAND HIGH 
  • UNDERSTAND UNCERTAINTY OVER ECON IS HIGH 
  • NO PRE-SET SUM FOR MONEY MARKET OPS 
  • CONTACTED OTHER CBANK CHIEFS BY EMAIL ON QUAKE 
  • CBANK COORDINATION REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED 
  • DISTRIBUTION LOGJAM TO HAVE IMPACT ON OUTPUT
  • BOJ GIVEN PRIORITY FOR HIGHWAY CASH TRANSPORT
09:26
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3850, $1.3750 
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.70, Y83.00
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6200
USD/CHF Chf0.9210
AUD/USD $0.9900, $1.0000, $1.0025, $1.0100, $1.0200
AUD/JPY Y83.25
NZD/USD $0.7380
NZD/JPY Y61.50


09:22
Asian session: The yen fell

Data:
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 1.3%
04:30 Japan Capacity Utilization (Jan) 3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) 3.5%

The yen fell against the dollar, erasing its earlier advance to a four-month high, after the Bank of Japan pumped record funds into an economy reeling from the nation’s strongest earthquake.
The yen declined as the central bank said it will add 15 trillion yen ($183 billion) to the financial system and increase its asset-purchase program. 
The euro rose for a second day after European leaders agreed to widen the scope of a rescue fund aimed at resolving the sovereign-debt crisis and cut the cost of loans to Greece.
The BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of zero to 0.1 percent. Borrowing costs were already cut near zero last year as officials sought to revive growth and end deflation. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said earlier today that he’s closely watching the foreign exchange, stock and Japanese bond markets.
Europe’s common currency advanced after euro-area leaders negotiated an accord to allow primary-market bond purchases that will offer a lifeline to aid recipients in return for austerity commitments. The agreement broke a deadlock as policy makers sought to extinguish a crisis that has raged for more than a year and forced Greece and Ireland to seek financial aid.

EUR/USD: pair the beginning the tenders in the field of $1,3960 then decreased.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,6040.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y80,50 then returned to around Y82,10.

EMU industrial output data is due at 1000GMT and is expected to rise by a reading of +0.5% m/m, +6.4% y/y.

08:47
Ratings agency S&P reported saying there is no immediate effect on AA- sovereign rating, although eathquake will have a significant impact and additional costs will add to existing fiscal weakness.
08:36
Stocks: Weekly review

Battered Asian markets reeled under the impact of fresh blows on Friday as higher-than-forecast Chinese inflation sparked fears of interest rate rises while the massive Japanese earthquake accelerated a session of selling.
The day’s losses set the seal on the worst week for the region’s markets in seven months, the FTSE Asia-Pacific index falling 3.3 per cent to 258.82, breaking below a 10-point trading range that prevailed for all of 2011.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Average had its steepest weekly decline for eight months, leading the region’s equity markets lower after tumbling 4.1 per cent to 10,254.43.
Although the Japanese benchmark fell just 1.7 per cent on Friday, more selling could be on its way next week as the tremors only hit Tokyo just before the market close. Stock futures lost 3.3 per cent in after-hours trading.
A broad sell-off was led by carmakers and financials with Toyota, the world’s biggest carmaker, falling 5 per cent over the week to Y3,595, Sony, Japan’s biggest exporter of electronics, declining 5.8 per cent to Y2,806 while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, the country’s largest listed lender, sank 5.1 per cent to Y431.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led the region’s emerging markets lower on Friday, tumbling 1.6 per cent to 23,249.78 as exporters slipped on waning confidence over global economic growth.
But the Hang Seng lost just 0.7 per cent over the five trading days as the index hit a five-week peak on Wednesday when hopes were raised that the worst of the oil price shock had been priced into global stocks.
Hong Kong exporters hit by the growing retreat in risk appetite over the course of the week included Li & Fung, the biggest supplier to US giant Walmart, which sank 2.3 per cent to HK$44.35, while Esprit Holdings, a global fashion retail group, slid 0.9 per cent HK$37.90.
Metal producer shares, often a barometer of sentiment for global growth, slumped with Jiangxi Copper down 7.6 per cent to HK$23.10 while aluminium group UC Rusal tumbled 7.2 per cent to HK$11.84.

European reinsurers were hit sharply as investors expected higher claims on the sector following the Japanese earthquake and resulting tsunami.
The 8.9 magnitude quake hit the north-east of the country, causing many injuries, fires and damage to buildings, and triggered a tsunami wave whose impact on Japan and other countries and islands in the Pacific is still to be fully realised.
Munich Re, the German reinsurer, said on Thursday that natural catastrophes in the first quarter, including the February earthquake in New Zealand, had cost it in the region of $1.5bn. The company added that its target of €2.4bn net profit for 2011 would only be achievable if “random losses in the further course of the year remain below expectations”. Shares in Munich Re fell 4.3 per cent to €111.75, down 6.3 per cent over the week.
Swiss Re, which announced last week that it expected to face about $800m in claims from the Christchurch quake, fell 3.5 per cent to SFr51.70, off 6.9 per cent over the five sessions. Hannover Re, the third-largest reinsurer, which reported on Wednesday forecast-beating profits for 2010, slid 4.3 per cent over the week to €38.65.
Over the week, Germany’s Allianz was down 4.6 per cent to €99.82, while France’s Axa shed 2.7 per cent to €14.61. Aegon of the Netherlands shed 3.4 per cent to €5.35 and Switzerland’s Zurich Financial lost 4.8 per cent to SFr255.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 2.3 per cent over the week to 1,122.53.
There were a couple of outstanding performers over the week. Iberdrola Renovables, the Spanish green energy group, rose 13.6 per cent to €3.01 after Wednesday’s announcement by its parent company that it would buy back minority holdings.
Delhaize rallied 5.9 per cent to €59.65 after the Belgian supermarket group published forecast-beating 2010 results.
In spite of downgrades by Moody’s to the sovereign debt of both Greece and Spain this week, the banks of these countries were not heavily sold. Banco Español de Crédito rose 7.2 per cent over the week to €6.56, while National Bank of Greece put in two strong sessions on Thursday and Friday to end the week flat at €6.52.
Spain’s Ferrovial gained 4.4 per cent to €9.03 over the week on speculation a Chinese airport operator was considering taking a stake in BAA, the British airport authority owned by the Spanish construction and concessions group. Ferrovial said it was studying offers for a 10 per cent stake in the operator of Heathrow and Stansted airports.

Following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit north-east Japan, the strongest in 140 years, the US’s KBW property and casualty index fell 0.7 per cent, even as the broader market saw gains.
Insurance analysts said that losses to private insurers would be limited, in part because Japan maintains a government quake insurance fund. The KBW index recovered from an earlier 2.2 per cent tumble.
Aspen Insurance Holding, which has exposure to Japanese quakes, fell 4.2 per cent to $27.59. Platinum Underwriters fell 4.6 per cent to $37.83. ACE Ltd, which recently purchased protection to limit earthquake losses, was up 0.5 per cent to $61.37.
However, US refineries and steelmakers were seeing sharp gains as the price of oil fell further, partly on expectations that consumption in Japan would fall.
Tesoro, the petrol refiner, led the S&P 500 risers, gaining 8.5 per cent to $24.51. AK Steel rose 5.7 per cent to $15.46. US crude oil dipped below $100 a barrel at one point.
Verizon, which provides WiFi to tablets, fell 1.5 per cent to $35.85. Technology was still the biggest loser for the week, with the Nasdaq Composite index falling 2.5 per cent. It was the worst week for the index since last August.
JDS Uniphase, which makes fibre optic connections for large telecoms companies, slid 22 per cent to $21.26. Technology groups have overtaken financials as the largest sector in the S&P 500. Finisar lost 46 per cent to $23.21, after it warned that the next quarter would see a sharp drop in activity in China.
For the week, the Dow was down 1 per cent, and the S&P 500 fell 1.3 per cent. Losses were led by energy stocks, which fell 4 per cent as oil prices eased.


08:34
Forex: Weekly review

The dollar recovered from a four-month low against the euro this week as fading investor risk appetite boosted haven demand for the US currency.
The dollar started the week on the back foot, hitting a low of $1.4037 against the euro on Monday as positioning data revealed that speculators on the Chicago Mercantile held record bets against the US currency.
The dollar, which also hit a four-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday, was suffering because of the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which are seen as more likely to lift interest rates to combat rising inflationary pressure.
The dollar rallied, however, as investor focus shifted from interest rate differentials towards concerns over global growth.
Sovereign rating downgrades for Greece and Spain, news of a surprise trade deficit in China and tensions in the Middle East all combined to depress investor risk appetite and weigh on equity and commodity prices.
The growing unease was compounded on Friday on news of the large earthquake in Japan.
Over the week, the dollar rose 1.2 per cent to $1.3817 against the euro, climbed 1.5 per cent to $1.6029 against the pound and was 0.6 per cent stronger at SFr0.9305 against the Swiss franc.
Commodity-linked currencies also came under pressure, with the Australian dollar falling 0.9 per cent to $1.0049 against the US dollar on the week, the Canadian dollar easing 0.4 per cent to C$0.9760 and the Norwegian krone losing 1.5 per cent to NKr5.6527.
The dollar was 0.1 per cent weaker at Y82.18 against the yen over the week, however, with the Japanese currency quickly reversing initial losses on Friday in the immediate aftermath of news of the earthquake.
Analysts said the safe haven characteristics of the yen were protecting the currency, with many believing that domestic investors would repatriate yen at times of crisis.
The yen also rose 1.3 per cent to Y113.53 against the euro on the week and climbed 1.6 per cent to Y131.66 against the pound.

07:42
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 1:Y83.50 (Feb 22 high) 
Resistance 2:Y83.30 (Mar 11 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.50 (session high) 
Current price: Y82.10
Support 1:Y81.60 (Mar 2 low)    
Support 2:Y80.90 (Mar 7 low)    
Support 3:Y80.20 (Nov 1 low)    
Comments: the pair bargains above mark Y82,00. The nearest resistance - Y82.50. Above growth is possible to Y83.30. The nearest support - Y81,60. Below losses are possible to Y80.90. 

07:39
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9420 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9775-Chf0,9200)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9370 (Mar 9 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9300 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9274
Support 1: Chf0.9260 (support line from Mar 2)
Support 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9100 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains below mark Chf0,9300. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9300. Above is located Chf0.9370. The nearest support - Chf0.9260. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9200. 

07:33
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6240 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6240 (Mar 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6100 (resistance line from Mar 7)
Current price: $1.6069
Support 1 : $1.6050 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5975 (Mar 11 low)
Support 3 : $1.5820 (Jan 31 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,6060. The nearest support $1.6050. Below is possible testings of around $1.5975. The nearest resistance $1.6100. Above growth is possible to $1.6240. 

07:28
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4030 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3990 (Mar 8 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3970 (session high)
Current price: $1.3940
Support 1 : $1.3915 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3770 (Mar 2 low, support line from Feb 14)
Support 3 : $1.3700 (Feb 28 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,3940. The nearest support $1,3915. Below losses are possible to $1.3770. The nearest resistance $1.3970. Above growth is possible to $1,3990.

07:03
Schedule for today, Monday, Mar 14 2011:

04:30 Japan Industrial output (January) final 2.4% 2.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (January) final Y/Y 4.7% 4.7%
10:00 EU(16) Industrial production (January) 0.4% -0.1%
10:00 EU(16) Industrial production (January) Y/Y 6.7% 8.0%

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