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GBP/USD tries to recover. holding around $1.6275. Mostly stops remain below $1.6230, $1.6210 and below bids at $1.6200.
Dow -11.28 at 12251.77, Nasdaq +5.32 at 2750.11, S&P -2.39 at 1311.77

Stocks are resting only modestly above their session lows. Outside of equities, the Dollar Index is near its session high, although its gain currently stands at less than 0.2%.

EUR/USD continues to loose ground. rate printed session lows a bit lower $1.4415 with a risk to test of the $1.4375 lows. Bids seen ahead of $1.4400.
US DATA/FED: Beige book says "economic activity generally continued to improve."
  • many Districts described the improvements as only moderate
  • KC described its economic gains as solid
  • mfg continued to lead
  • retailers in Boston reported mixed sales results
  • retail sales remained weak in Richmond
  • all other Districts experienced at least slight gains in consumer spending
US DATA/FED: Beige book says "economic activity generally continued to improve."
  • many Districts described the improvements as only moderate
  • KC described its economic gains as solid
  • mfg continued to lead
  • retailers in Boston reported mixed sales results
  • retail sales remained weak in Richmond
  • all other Districts experienced at least slight gains in consumer spending
EUR/USD under pressure

EUR/USD holds under pressure around $1.4435 area as earlier noted bids at $1.4445/60 are filled, then stop interest at $1.4440. Area of $1.4420/25 said to hold demand.

Dow -7.08 at 12256.50, Nasdaq +8.09 at 2752.88, S&P -1.57 at 1312.29

Stocks opened today's trade with solid gains, but the tone of trade has since deteriorated.
Strong gains abroad and a pleasing quarterly report from banking bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.29, -0.35) helped stocks push higher in early trade. However, shares of banks have buckled under pressure from sellers. Weakness among bank stocks has taken the financial sector down to a 0.8% loss.
Part of this session's change in sentiment stems from the failure of the S&P 500 to extend its opening gains through near-term resistance in the 1321-1322 zone.
As a reminder, the Fed's Beige Book will be released at 18:00 GMT.

AUSTRALIA,RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens: US econ recovering after period of weakness
AUSTRALIA,RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens: 70% of Australia exports with Asia in 2010
US focus: Euro edges to 15-mth high vs dlr

The euro edged to a 15-month high against the dollar.
The euro was lifted by reported demand from sovereign names looking to recycle dollar proceeds as the single currency remained supported by the prospect of further rate rises in the euro zone while policy stays loose in the United States and Japan.

"The European Central Bank's increase of interest rates last week should not be considered as an isolated decision and the ECB president has signalled that it was not a one-off," ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene said on Wednesday.
Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose, buoyed by a recovery in commodity prices and stocks.
An Australian sentiment index rose 1.2 percent to 105.3 this month from March, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey released today. House prices in New Zealand increased 0.5 percent in March, an index published by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. showed.

Dow -12.38 at 12251.20, Nasdaq +8.31 at 2753.10, S&P -2.08 at 1312.08

Stocks have extended their recent retreat. The downturn has actually taken the Dow and S&P 500 into negative territory. Although the Nasdaq isn't quite there yet, it is at a session low.
Financials have been a drag on trade today. The sector had attempted to stage an impressive rally yesterday, but broad market weakness undercut the sector that is down 0.4%.

CANADA, BOC's Carney: Too that stronger C$ damps net exports, causes larger import price drops.
GBP/USD tries to recover

GBP/USD holds around $1.6288. Traders mention stops below $1.6230 ahead of earlier mentioned stops intereast below $1.6210 and $1.6180. Rate earlier fell to hourly lows around $1.6240.

US: Apr 8 wk EIA oil data: crude stocks +1.6m bpd to 359.3m.
Dow +46.77 at 12310.35, Nasdaq +18.30 at 2763.09, S&P +4.51 at 1318.87

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have slipped from their opening levels, but the Nasdaq is trying to hold firm near the top end of its early morning trading range. Tech stocks, collectively up 0.7%, are helping to support the Nasdaq.
Although they are usually considered one of the more stodgy sectors, utilities are outperforming this morning. The sector has already run ahead to a 0.9% gain. Duke Energy (DUK 18.19, +0.20) and American Electric (AEP 34.98, +0.39) are primary leaders in the utilities space.

JPM says "the retail sales data now implies real consumption increased a respectable 2.3% in 1Q, though the trajectory looks soft heading into 2Q which reflects the surge in gasoline prices."
ECB MERSCH: Idea of eurobonds is premature
US: Feb business inventories +0.5% vs +0.8%
ECB DRAGHI: ECB monetary policy still 'very accommodative' after hike
  • Must prevent rise of EMU inflation expectations;
  • ECB evaluating timing, mode of exit from accommodation;
  • Global monetary policies must consider infl. pressures;
  • Whole world now has need to end fiscal, monetary support;
  • Recovery has not cancelled crisis impact,ended weakness;
  • Divergence in growth worldwide can cause fx volatility;
  • EMU states must have fiscal rules consistent w/eu rules
ECB, Mersch: not impossible for Greece to fulfill EU program.
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised for gains Wednesday after JPMorgan Chase reported solid earnings, but cautioned that mortgage losses would continue.

U.S. stocks finished lower Tuesday, with all three major indexes losing about 1%, as a 3% drop in oil prices sparked a sell-off in energy stocks, and Alcoa's sales disappointment weighed down the Dow.
The first major bank to report quarterly results, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) announced a 70% jump in first-quarter net income to $5.6 billion, or $1.28 per share, beating analysts' forecasts for $1.16 per share.
Revenue slipped to $25.8 billion from a year earlier but still edged above analysts' predictions.
Additionally, bankers from the investment banking giant are in line for a 34% raise this year. JPMorgan Chase shares rose 1.5% following the report.
Economy: Census Bureau reported retail sales rose 0.4% in March. The number was slightly lower than the 0.5% increase economists expected, due to rising gas prices. Stripping out gas, retail sales were only up 0.1% for the month.
The latest business inventory numbers will be released at 14:00 GMT from the Census Bureau. Companies are expected to have boosted their inventories by 0.8% in February.
In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book.
Companies: Shares of Tyco International (TYC) fell more than 1.8% in premarket trading, after French company Schneider Electric denied reports that it is trying to buy the Swiss manufacturing conglomerate for $30 billion.
World markets:

Oil for May delivery gained 41 cents to $106.66 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery rose $7.60 to $1,461.20 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.53% from 3.50% late Tuesday.

Orders desk:

Offers: Y122.17/20, Y122.25, Y122.75, Y123.10, Y124.00
Bids: Y121.60/50, Y120.80, Y120.55, Y120.00

US: Mar retail sales +0.4% overall, +0.8% ex auto
European session: market awaits US retail sales data

The yen was the worst performer among the 17 most-traded currencies as European stocks rebounded and data showed the euro-region economy is improving, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
Euro-area industrial output rose for a fifth month in February, stoking bets that the European Central Bank will tighten policy further after last week’s interest-rate increase.
Production in the euro area rose 0.4% in February, European Union statistics showed today.
Commerce Department figures scheduled for release today at 12:30 GMT are expected to show U.S. retail sales gained 0.5% in March.

“The market’s view that the global economy remains on a recovery track is unlikely to push stocks and commodity prices down much further,” said Daisaku Ueno, president of Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “That may reduce demand for the yen as a refuge.”
New Zealand’s dollar rose to best performer against the dollar after the Real Estate Institute said its index of house prices increased for a second month in March. Australian dollar rallied from near a one-week low versus the yen after an industry report showed consumer confidence improved in April.
The pound touched the lowest in almost six months against the euro as a report showed U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly increased in March even as unemployment declined.
Sterling erased earlier gains versus the dollar. Jobless benefit claims rose by 700 from February to 1.451 million, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That compared with the median forecast of a drop of 3,000. Unemployment fell to 7.8% from 8%.

EUR/USD: popped to $1.4520 on react to the reported ECB Coene comments, the move taking out an option barrier at $1.4520 which had been defended by an Asian sovereign through European morning trade. Rate has since slipped back to $1.4500 as profit take sales, along with reported offers above $1.4520, managed to counter any follow through. Another barrier noted at $1.4530 ahead of larger barrier at $1.4550.
GBP/USD: gained up to $1.6290.
USD/JPY: hols above Y84.00.
Orders desk:

Offers: $1.4530/35, $1.4550, $1.4580
Bids: $1.4480, $1.4455/45, $1.4425/20, $1.4400

Offers: Y84.55/60, Y84.85/90
Bids: Y83.50, Y83.45/40, Y83.25/20, Y82.75/70

JP Morgan have reported Q1 EPS of $1.28 vs forecasts of $1.16.
ECB Coene: the ECB rate hike should not be seen as 'totally isolated decision'
ECB Coene: the ECB rate hike should not be seen as 'totally isolated decision'
JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings report is due at 1100GMT

The street expects EPS of $1.154 on revenue of $25.3 billion. Analysts note that JPMorgan has topped the consensus view by 12% in each of the past two quarters, and has come above consensus for the past 8 quarters.

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4500 (large), $1.4450, $1.4400, $1.4300
USD/JPY  Y85.00, Y84.50, Y84.00, Y83.90, Y83.75, Y83.50, Y83.20
EUR/JPY  Y120.00
GBP/USD $1.6260, $1.6150, $1.6100
AUD/USD  $1.0425

USD/CAD C$0.9550

CHINA: Inflation expectations are strengthening
  • Will eliminate monetary factors fueling inflation;
  • Says won't relax controls on housing market;
  • Overall price stability the top priority;
  • Reiterates yuan FX reform goals.
CHINA: Will take all measures to maintain price stability
  • Inflation spread to advanced from emerging economies;
  • Overall price stability 'most urgent task';
  • Domestic demand playing bigger role in economy;
  • To control price increase in acceptable range.
FTSE +0.71% 6,007, CAC +0.41% 3,993, DAX +0.64% 7,148
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4500, $1.4450, $1.4400, $1.4300
USD/JPY  Y85.00, Y84.50, Y84.00, Y83.90, Y83.75, Y83.50, Y83.20
EUR/JPY  Y120.00
GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6100
AUD/USD  $1.0425

EMU: Industrial production +0.4% m/m, +7.3% y/y
Asian stocks close

Hang Seng +0.66% 24,135.03
Shanghai Composite +0.96% 3,050.40
Nikkei +0.90% 9641.18



claimant count unemployment +700; rate 4.5% 
ILO unemployment -17,000 q/q; rate 7.8% 
total weekly earnings +2.0% 
regular weekly earnings +2.2% 
Asian session: The yen weakened

The yen weakened against all its major counterparts before reports that economists said will show European industrial production and U.S. retail sales improved, damping demand for the safety of Japan’s currency.
The yen dropped toward an 11-month low versus the euro on speculation European policy makers will add to last week’s interest-rate increase, while Japan’s central bank maintains stimulus measures. 
New Zealand’s dollar strengthened for a second day after a report showed house prices increased. 
China’s yuan climbed to a 17-year high on speculation policy makers will unveil more measures to curb inflation.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and colleagues boosted the main refinancing rate on April 7 to 1.25 percent from a record low 1 percent, where it had been since 2009, and left the door open for further increases.
New Zealand’s dollar rose against all major counterparts after the Real Estate Institute said its index of house prices increased 0.5 percent in March from February. 
Australian dollar rallied from near a one-week low versus the yen after an industry report showed consumer confidence improved in April.
EUR/USD: the pair become stronger above a mark $1.4500.
GBP/USD: the pair grown in around $1.6280.
USD/JPY: the pair become stronger above mark Y84.00.

EMU data continues at 0900GMT with the release of EMU industrial output data for February.

Forex: Tusday's review


The yen and Swiss franc rose against most of their major counterparts after Japan raised the severity rating for the nuclear crisis that began last month and more earthquakes shook buildings in Tokyo, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.
The IMF lowered its 2011 forecast for Japanese growth to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in its World Economic Outlook report yesterday, citing effects from the disaster. 
Canada’s dollar slid versus the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada held its target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks at 1 percent, where it has been since September.
The pound slumped to its weakest against the euro in almost six months as the U.K.’s inflation unexpectedly slowed in March, discouraging the Bank of England from raising interest rates.
Consumer prices rose 4 percent from a year earlier, down from a 4.4 percent pace in February. 
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in February from a seven-month high as demand for imports decreased for the first time in four months.
The gap shrank to $45.8 billion from $47 billion in January, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.


EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around $1.4475.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair   decreased in around $1.6250.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in around Y83.40.

EMU data continues at 0900GMT with the release of EMU industrial output data for February.


Stocks: Tuesday's review

Japanese stocks fell the most in almost a month after the International Monetary Fund cut the economic growth forecast for the country and strong aftershocks continued to shake Tokyo following a record quake and tsunami.
Tokyo Electric Power Co. tumbled the most on the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average after the utility said radiation leaks from reactors crippled by last month’s disaster may eventually exceed those from Chernobyl.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and Honda Motor Co. fell after SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. said supply disruptions may reduce profits at the carmakers by billions of dollars.
Inpex Corp. (1605), the country’s No. 1 energy explorer, slumped 5.2 percent as oil prices dropped.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (1662), the second-biggest oil driller, dropped 3.5 percent to 4,010 yen.
Shimadzu, which makes measuring instruments and precision tools, dropped 4 percent to 670 yen after Mizuho Securities cut the company’s investment rating to “neutral” from “outperform,” saying last month’s earthquake will likely slow demand for measuring equipment.
European stocks fell the most in four weeks as Tokyo Electric Power Co. said its earthquake-hit nuclear power plant may release more radiation than Chernobyl and Alcoa Inc. (AA) posted sales that missed analysts’ estimates.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, led mining stocks lower as metal prices fell.
BHP declined 3.3 percent to 2,544 pence and Rio Tinto slipped 2.8 percent to 4,403 pence. Kazakhmys Plc (KAZ), Kazakhstan’s biggest copper producer, tumbled 5 percent to 1,419 pence. Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. sank 4.3 percent to 929.5 pence. Fresnillo Plc (FRES), the world’s largest primary silver producer, lost 5.1 percent to 1,576 pence.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and BP Plc dropped as a gauge of European oil companies sank the most in 11 months.
Delta Lloyd NV (DL) dropped 7.6 percent, the largest decline since its initial public offering in 2009.
Game Group Plc (GMG) sank 8.3 percent after UBS AG cut its recommendation on the shares.
Economy: The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, declined to 7.6 from 14.1 in March. Economists had predicted a drop to 11.3, according to the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
U.S. stocks remained under pressure Tuesday afternoon, as a 3% drop in oil prices sparked a sell-off in energy stocks and Alcoa continued to weigh down the Dow.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 91 points, or 0.7%, dragged down by a more than 6% drop in Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500)'s stock. The aluminum giant reported disappointing sales late Monday.
Energy companies also weighed on markets, as oil prices retreated more than 3% to $106.25 a barrel following a Goldman Sachs forecast for a $20-a-barrel drop in crude prices this spring. Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) were big laggards on the Dow.
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Nabors Industries (NBR), Denbury Resources (DNR), Range Resources (RRC) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV, Fortune 500) pressured the S&P 500 (SPX), which slipped 7 points, or 0.5%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 21 points, or 0.8%, as chipmakers such as Broadcom (BRCM, Fortune 500) and Micron Technology (MU, Fortune 500) lost ground amid global growth concerns.
Economy: The Commerce Department released data on the U.S. trade balance for February, showing that the deficit narrowed to $45.8 billion, the gap was slightly more than expected.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the report to show the trade deficit narrowed slightly to $45.7 billion, down from $46.3 billion in January.

Tech on USD/CHF


Resistance 3: Chf0.9200 (Apr 7 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9100 (Apr 11 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9010 (resistance line from Apr 6)
Current price: Chf0.8978
Support 1: Chf0.8940 (Apr 12 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8920 (Mar 16 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8900 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair receded from yesterday's low. The nearest support - Chf0,8940. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8920. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9010. Above is located Chf0.9100. 


Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (Jan'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6430 (Apr 8-11 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6330 (Apr 12 intraday high)
Current price: $1.6257
Support 1 : $1.6230 (Apr 12 low)
Support 2 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Support 3 : $1.6090 (Apr 5 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support $1.6230. Below is possible testings of around $1.6180. The nearest resistance - area $1.6330. Above growth is possible to $1.6430. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4770 (Dec 12'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4520 (Apr 12 high)
Current price: $1.4474
Support 1 : $1.4450/40 (session high, support line from Apr 1)
Support 2 : $1.4375 (Apr 12 low)
Support 3 : $1.4350 (Apr 6 high)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4470. The nearest support $1,4450/40. Below losses are possible to $1.4375. The nearest resistance - $1.4520. Above growth is possible to $1,4580.

Schedule for today, Wednesday, Apr 13 2011:

08:30 UK Claimant count (March) -3500 -10200
08:30 UK Claimant count rate (March) 4.5% 4.5%
08:30 UK Average earnings (3 months to February) Y/Y 2.6% 2.3%
08:30 UK Average earnings ex bonuses (3 months to February) Y/Y 2.5% 2.2%
08:30 UK ILO Jobless rate (February) 8.0% 8.0%
09:00 EU(17) Industrial production (February) 0.7% 0.3%
09:00 EU(17) Industrial production (February) Y/Y 7.8% 6.6%
12:30 USA Retail sales (March) 0.5% 1.0%
12:30 USA Retail sales excluding auto (March) 0.8% 0.7%
14:00 USA Business inventories (February) 0.8% 0.9%
18:00 USA Fed Beige book

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