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12.04.2011
18:57
Dow -91.54 at 12289.57, Nasdaq -21.73 at 2749.78, S&P -7.04 at 1317.37


Although the major equity averages are still down markedly for the day, stocks have spent the past few hours gradually paring their losses. The effort has stocks sitting at afternoon highs.
Financials have extended their rally into higher ground. The sector now sports a 0.2% gain.
Still, consumer staples stocks represent this session's top performing sector as they sport a 0.4% gain. This is the second straight session that consumer staples have outperformed. Colgate-Palmolive (CL 83.00, +1.39) and Procter & Gamble (PG 62.89, +0.70) are leaders in their space.


18:36
USD/CAD back to C$0.9600

USD/CAD holds back around C$0.9600 area now after seeing morning high prints around C$0.9655. Traders say that C$ remains a buy on dips, along with other risk currencies, though USD bids likely on approach to C$0.9500.


17:47
Oil remains under pressure

NYMEX May light sweet crude holds at $106.00 per barrel, down from an earlier high of $110.24 as well as Monday's peak at $113.46, which was the highest level seen since Sept 2008. A close below $106.95, the prior 2011 high posted March 7 would be deemed bearish for the front contract.

17:04
Dow -122.30 at 12260.17, Nasdaq -28.48 at 2743.03, S&P -12.36 at 1312.10
16:36
Nomura says Q1 GDP is tracking +2.1%.
16:09
American focus:

The yen and Swiss franc rose against most of their major counterparts after Japan raised the severity rating for the nuclear crisis that began last month and more earthquakes shook buildings in Tokyo, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.
“Yen-buying pressure may intensify against a backdrop of Japanese investors’ risk reduction and a worldwide equity downward correction,” said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “We expect dollar- yen to decline towards 80 in coming several weeks.”
The IMF lowered its 2011 forecast for Japanese growth to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in its World Economic Outlook report yesterday, citing effects from the disaster.
Canada’s dollar slid versus the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada held its target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks at 1 percent, where it has been since September.
The pound slumped to its weakest against the euro in almost six months as the U.K.’s inflation unexpectedly slowed in March, discouraging the Bank of England from raising interest rates.
Consumer prices rose 4 percent from a year earlier, down from a 4.4 percent pace in February.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in February from a seven-month high as demand for imports decreased for the first time in four months.
The gap shrank to $45.8 billion from $47 billion in January, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.

15:41
Dow -143.38 at 12237.73, Nasdaq -31.95 at 2739.56, S&P -14.70 at 1309.76

Stocks continue to descend deeper into negative territory. The slide has taken both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite below their 50-day moving averages to new two-week lows. The Dow is also at an April low, but it has yet to come in contact with its 50-day moving average.
Although weakness is widespread, participants continue to make the most concerted push against energy stocks, which are now down 3.3%. There isn't a single stock in the sector that has managed to put together any kind of a gain.

14:51
Pierpont Securities on trade data

"Exports and imports both fell significantly, with practically every major category of goods exports and imports down on the month." They est trade will cut Q1 real growth, now seen +1.5%. But Pierpoint says Q2 could rebound to +5% real growth.

14:22
Dow -102.25 at 12278.86, Nasdaq -24.87 at 2746.64, S&P -9.80 at 1314.66

Stocks have extended their morning slide so that the Dow is now down 100 points.
Energy stocks continue to cast the heaviest weight on broad market trade. The sector is now down 2.5% as integrated oil and gas plays like Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.35, -1.81) and Chevron (CVX 104.77, -3.01) and service plays like Baker Hughes (BHI 66.89, -2.42) and Schlumberger (SLB 86.64, -2.16) succumb to sharp selling pressure.
Of the major sectors, health care is a top performer. The sector's 0.2% gain is underpinned by strength in health care facilities stocks. Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC 6.70, +0.26) is actually up 4%.

13:32
Before the bell: Stocks may open lower

U.S. stocks were headed for a weak open Tuesday, after Cisco announced impending job cuts, and Japanese officials raised the threat level at the Fukushima nuclear plant to the same as Chernobyl.


On Monday, U.S. stocks gave up an early advance and closed little changed, as investors look toward corporate reports due throughout the week.
Companies: Cisco Systems announced that it was taking a restructuring charge of $300 million, as it prepared to reduce its staff by 550 workers. Cisco (CSCO) shares dipped 1% on the news.
Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings seasons with a first-quarter profit that beat estimates, but shares fell 3.3% in premarket trading, because the aluminum maker missed forecasts on revenue.
Economy: The Commerce Department released data on the U.S. trade balance for February, showing that the deficit narrowed to $45.8 billion, the gap was slightly more than expected.
Economists expected the report to show the trade deficit narrowed slightly to $45.7 billion, down from $46.3 billion in January.
World markets:

Oil for May delivery fell 29 cents to $109.63 a barrel.
Gold futures for June delivery fell $1.50 to $1,466.60 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.53% from 3.57% late Monday.

13:01
CANADA: Bank of Canada leaves key interest rates unchanged at 1.00%
12:45
EUR/USD rises

EUR/USD continues to flirt with $1.4500 area with option related supply ahead of the figure. Risk may be for stops atop $1.4500 followed by reported offers $1.4510/15 to make for choppy dealings.

12:35
CANADA: Feb intl merch trade +C$0.03bln
12:33
US: Mar US export prices +1.5%
12:32
US: Mar import prices +2.7%
12:32
US: Feb trade bal -$45.8b
12:21
EU session review: Yen, Franc climb as quakes boost safe-heaven demand; Pound falls on inflation data

Data released
06:00     Germany     CPI (March) final    0.5%    0.5%    0.5%
06:00     Germany     CPI (March) final Y/Y    2.1%    2.1%    2.1%
06:00     Germany     HICP (March) final Y/Y    2.3%    2.2%    2.2%
08:30     UK     Trade in goods (February), bln    -6.8    -7.8    -7.8 (-7.1)
08:30     UK     Non-EU trade (February), bln    -2.9    -4.7    -4.2
08:30     UK     HICP (March)    0.3%    0.6%    0.7%
08:30     UK     HICP (March) Y/Y    4.0%    4.4%    4.4%
08:30     UK     HICP ex EFAT (March) Y/Y    3.2%    -    3.4%
08:30     UK     Retail prices (March)    0.5%    0.5%    0.1%
08:30     UK     Retail prices (March) Y/Y    5.3%    5.5%    5.5%
08:30     UK     RPI-X (March) Y/Y         -    5.5%
09:00     Germany     ZEW economic expectations index (April)    7.6    11.5    14.1

The yen and Swiss franc rose after more earthquakes shook buildings in Tokyo and Japan raised the severity rating for the nuclear crisis that began last month, reviving demand for the safest assets.
The yen appreciated as officials said the accident at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant may release more radiation than the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
The IMF lowered its 2011 forecast for Japanese growth to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in its World Economic Outlook report yesterday, citing effects from the disaster. The forecast for next year was raised to 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent.
The euro rose as the International Monetary Fund and European Commission prepare to meet in Lisbon to discuss an 80 billion-euro ($116 billion) aid program for Portugal. The pound sank after data showed inflation slowed.
A report today showed German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast in April after the European Central Bank raised interest rates and Portugal become the third euro- region nation to seek a bailout.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations declined to 7.6 from 14.1 in March. Economists expected a drop to 11.3.
The pound slumped to its weakest against the euro in almost six months.
Statistics showed U.K. inflation unexpectedly slowed last month, weakening the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 4% from a year earlier, down from the 4.4% pace in February.

EUR/USD rose from $1.4380 to $1.4480 before retreated to current $1.4471.

GBP/USD fell after the weak UK data. Rate fell from $1.6320 to $1.6220 before recovered to $1.6280.

USD/JPY recovered from Asian lows around Y83.40 to Y84.40.

US data include International trade report for February with an expected deficit of -45.5 bln after -46.3 bln.
At 13:00 GMT BOC announces its rate decision. Analysts predict rate remains unch at 1.00%.

12:01
OIL:

May WTI retreats from recent highs after a strong morning rally when prices rose from an Asian low of $107.85 to $110.22. Support is now seen at $107.85 and $107.08 with resistance at $110.69 and $111.34. Market currently trades $109.62/65.

11:42
EUR/JPY back under figure

EUR/JPY printed session high on Y122.14 as dollar-yen finds headwinds above Y84.40 and drifts back to Y84.20/25. Cross retreated back under the figure and holds currently around Y121.71. Resistance above seen towards Y122.41 (Asian high) ahead of Y123.33 (Mon high).

11:14
NZD/USD refreshed 2011 highs

NZD/USD rallied from the overnight lows of $0.7746 to a new 2011 highs on $0.7860 after triggering stops on $0.7850. Resistance ahead now seen at last Nov 10 high of $0.7874. Kiwi trades $0.7850.

10:59
EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD printed hourly high on $1.4483 before retreated to current $1.4465. Offers had been expected to emerge around the recent highs of $1.4485/89, with further sell interest positioned ahead of a suggested barrier at $1.4500. Support now seen at $1.4440 with stops below.

10:39
Commodities:

Gold prices back off the earlier Asian lows with a strong pull back up to $1464.50 on a general rally in commodities led by crude oil. Silver has also recovered strongly to $40.84.

10:24
EU focus: Yen gains sharply on profit-taking

The yen gained sharply on Tuesday as profit-taking. Like the yen, the U.S. dollar found some speculators locked in profits in favour of the euro and commodity plays like the Australian dollar, though traders said both the yen and the dollar looked set to resume sliding after the profit-taking had run its course.
"When there are uncertainties, you just close your positions. At the moment, what a lot of people have is yen short positions so the yen is being bought back. But I don't see any change in the yen's downtrend," said a trader at a U.S. bank.
"Aftershocks in Japan hampered overall risk sentiment helping JPY to be the top performer overnight, even amid reports that the estimate of the severity of the Fukushima accident could be increased," said David Watt, strategist at RBC.

Japan raised the severity of its nuclear disaster to the highest level on Tuesday, citing accumulated levels of radiation released.
The IMF lowered its 2011 forecast for Japanese growth to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in its World Economic Outlook report yesterday, citing effects from the disaster. The forecast for next year was raised to 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent.
The Centre for European Economic Research's Survey on Economic Sentiment (ZEW) resulted in an index reading of 19.7 in April. The index deteriorated from a 31.0 print in March. The slide overwhelmed a market-based forecast at 29.8 on the index.
The pound fell against the dollar and the euro after a report showed U.K. retail sales dropped by a record in March, weakening the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates from a record low. Sales at stores measured by value fell 1.9 percent from a year earlier, the British Retail Consortium said. That’s the biggest drop since the series began in 1995.
Pound retreated after weaker than expected inflation figures in the UK, which eases pressure on the BoE to hike interest rates. Consumer Prices Index slowed down to 0.3% advance in March and a 4.0% increase year-on-year, below the 0.7% and 4.4% respective increases in February, and the 0.6% and 4.4% readings forecasted by market analysts.

10:10
EUR/USD gains

EUR/USD extends recovery to $1.4465 after reports that China will continue to buy Spanish govt debt. Next resistance seen at recent highs of $1.4485/89, with offers noted from this area through to a suggested barrier at $1.4500.

09:55
SPAIN: Wires report comments from a Spanish Govt official saying that the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said China will continue to buy Spanish sovereign debt.
09:47
ZEW: Germany expections little changed after Japan quake
  • Germany strong growth seems to leave little improvemt room
  • Risks seen from Japan, Arab world for global economy
  • Considerable risks may come from rising commodity prices
  • 2nd-rd effects cld force ECB to more restrictive mon pol

 

09:29
FTSE -0.91% 5,998, CAC -1.16% 3,992, DAX -1.03% 7,130
09:16
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4500, $1.4400, $1.4325
USD/JPY Y83.80, Y84.15, Y84.50, Y85.00, Y85.50, Y82.45, Y82.10
EUR/JPY Y120.80, Y118.25
GBP/USD $1.6350
EUR/CHF Chf1.3150
AUD/USD $1.0475, $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0300

09:03
Asian stocks close

Hang Seng -1.34% 23,976.37

Shanghai Composite -0.05% 3021.37
Nikkei -1.69% 9,555 

09:01
GERMANY: ZEW; Apr econ sent index 7.6
08:32
UK Data: Mar CPI +0.3% m/m; +4% y/y; Mar core CPI +3.2% y/y
08:13
Asian session: The yen, dollar and Swiss franc rose

The yen, dollar and Swiss franc rose against most of their major peers amid renewed demand for refuge assets after earthquakes shook buildings in Tokyo, a month after a record temblor triggered a nuclear crisis.
Australia’s dollar fell the most in four weeks against the yen as Asian stocks extended a worldwide retreat, damping demand for higher-yielding assets.
The earthquake that struck Chiba, the prefecture east of Tokyo, and shook buildings in the capital this morning had a magnitude of 6.2 according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Another earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 struck Fukushima prefecture in the afternoon, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency raised the level of the Fukushima crisis to 7, the highest in the standard global scale, an official said today in a televised briefing.
The yen soared to a postwar record against the dollar in the week after a magnitude-9 quake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11, amid speculation domestic insurance companies would sell overseas assets to pay for reconstruction. 
The greenback gained for a second day versus the euro as the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average slid 1.7 percent, pacing a 1.4 percent drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined for a third day yesterday.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.4375-$ 1.4440.
GBP/USD: the pair shown low below a mark $1.6300.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y83.40 then returned back above mark Y84.00.

The main EMU release for Tuesday is the 0900GMT release of German ZEW data for April, which is expected to see the current situation data edge to 85.0 from 85.4 and the economic sentiment index slip to 11.6 from 14.1 in March.
UK data at 0830GMT includes inflation and trade data as well as the latest DCLG House Prices. The house price data is expected to show a marginal 0.1% increase y/y. Inflation data will be clearly watched and CPI is forecast to rise 0.6% m/m, remaining at 4.4% y/y with core-CPI edging lower to 3.3% y/y. The RPI measures are expected to come in at 0.6% m/m, 5.5% y/y with RPIX also remaining at 5.5% y/y. In its February Inflation Report the Bank of England forecast CPI would average 4.08% in Q1. If analysts median forecast for the March release is right, with CPI up 4.4% on the year, then CPI will average 4.3% in Q1. 
US data: the weekly Redbook Average is due at 1255GMT, while at 1400GMT, the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is released. Later, at 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $189.0 billion
budget gap in March, much larger than the $65.4 billion gap in March 2010 due to a significant drop off in personal tax receipts.

08:09
IEA Oil Market Report: high oil prices denting demand,could dampen global upswing
  • higher Japan 2011 demand to offset weaker non-oecd demand 
  • March non-OPEC supply up 200 kbd m/m to 53.3 mbd 
  • effective OPEC spare capacity 3.91 mbd, incl saudi 3.2 mbd 
  • hikes 2011 avg non-OPEC supply fcst 100 kbd to 53.7 mbd 
  • trims 2011 avg OPEC call/stocks fcst 100 kbd to 29.8 mbd 
  • 2q global crude run projection cut 270 kbd due Japan 
07:49
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks declined on the lowest volume in three months after Citigroup Inc. downgraded the country’s auto sector to “sell,” amid continuing supply disruptions in the wake of last month’s record earthquakeю
The Nikkei 225 fell 6.4 percent through April 8 from March 10, a day before the magnitude-9 earthquake hit.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), Honda Motor Co., and Nissan Motor Co., the country’s top three carmakers, declined at least 2.2 percent after Citigroup cut its rating on Japan’s auto industry, saying investors haven’t priced in the impact on earnings from the earthquake and tsunami that hit on March 11.
Sharp Corp. slid 0.8 percent after the electronics maker said a disruption of gas supplies forced it to suspend some production.
Suruga Bank Ltd. (8358) tumbled 7.5 percent as the lender said one its borrowers has filed for bankruptcy and may be unable to repay its loans.
Among stocks that rose, Tokyo Electric Power Co., the utility that is battling to cool nuclear reactors crippled by the tsunami in Fukushima, gained the most on the Nikkei and was the most actively traded stock in Japan.
The company, whose stock price has dropped 77 percent since the reactor accident started last month, will borrow or buy at least 100 gas turbines with a combined capacity of 1 million kilowatts to increase power supply during Japan’s summer, public broadcaster NHK reported.
Kansai Electric Power Co. increased 2.4 percent to 1,858 yen after the utility agreed to buy two Griffin Energy coal-fired power stations in Western Australia.
Mining and energy-related companies also rose. Inpex Corp., Japan’s largest energy explorer, climbed 3 percent to 654,000 yen.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (1662), the second-biggest oil driller, advanced 1.7 percent to 4,155 yen.
European stocks declined, dragging the Stoxx Europe 600 Index from a one-month high, as carmakers and construction companies fell before the start of the U.S. earnings-reporting season.
Daimler AG (DAI) dropped 2.7 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded auto companies.
Hochtief AG (HOT) tumbled 9.5 percent after the builder warned earnings may halve this year.
British banks limited losses after the U.K.’s Independent Commission on Banking released its report on the industry. Barclays Plc (BARC) gained 2.8 percent to 305.35 pence and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) increased 2.3 percent
Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, unofficially kicks off the first-quarter reporting season after the close of trading in New York today.
Eleven companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are scheduled to release results this week, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. and Google Inc.
Daimler dropped 2.7 percent to 50.65 euros in Frankfurt after Credit Suisse lowered its recommendation for the world’s largest maker of commercial vehicles to “neutral” from “outperform” and cut its share price estimate by 13 percent to 65 euros.
Schneider Electric SA (SU) declined 3.7 percent to 117 euros after three people with knowledge of the matter said the company is weighing a takeover offer for Tyco International Ltd. (TYC) that would make the French company the world’s biggest maker of security systems.
Husqvarna AB (HUSQB) sank 7.2 percent to 50.10 kronor after the world’s largest maker of lawnmowers said first-quarter sales and operating profit in the Americas fell short of expectations.
U.S. stocks turned mixed Monday, with blue-chips rising and the broader market erasing earlier gains, as investors await corporate reports due after the market closes and later this week.
Stocks posted broad-based gains earlier in the session on a spate of deal news and a drop in oil prices following talk of a cease fire in Libya. But the tone turned more cautious in the afternoon, as investors were awaiting the early results of the first-quarter reporting period.
Alcoa, which is scheduled to report after the closing bell Monday, will be the first Dow stock to issue results. JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500), another Dow component, and Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) are also slated to post results later this week.
the 2% pullback in oil prices weighed on shares of energy producers and industrial companies. Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) dragged on the Dow, while Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) were also weak.
Companies: Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) announced plans to buy American Medical Systems (AMMD) for $2.9 billion in cash and stock. Shares of American Medical jumped 32%, while Endo stock rose 5%.
Communications services company Level 3 (LVLT) announced plans to buy rival Global Crossing (GLBC) in an all-stock deal valued at $3 billion.
Shares of Tyco (TYC) were up 3.5%, amid speculation that France's Schneider Electric is considering a bid for the Swiss industrial conglomerate.
On the down side, shares of Tenet Healthcare (THC, Fortune 500) sank 13% as the company filed suit against Community Health Systems, which is pursuing a hostile takeover bid for Tenet.
Shares of major U.S. automakers Ford and GM were also under pressure. Ford (F, Fortune 500) fell 3%, while GM (GM) was down 2.8%.

07:30
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y85.90 (Sep 16-17 high) 
Resistance 2:Y85.50 (Apr 6-7 high) 
Resistance 1:Y84.80 (session high) 
Current price: Y83.87
Support 1:Y83.40 (session low)    
Support 2:Y82.50 (Mar 31 low)    
Support 3:Y81.50 (Mar 29 low)    
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Y83,40. Below losses are possible to Y82.50. The nearest resistance - Y84.80. Above growth is possible to Y85.50. 

06:35
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (Jan'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6430 (Apr 8-11 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6350 (session high)
Current price: $1.6305
Support 1 : $1.6260 (Apr 6-7 low)
Support 2 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Support 3 : $1.6090 (Apr 5 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1.6260. Below is possible testings of around $1.6180. The nearest resistance - around $1.6350. Above growth is possible to $1.6430. 

06:03
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4480 (Apr 11 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4440 (session high)
Current price: $1.4404
Support 1 : $1.4375 (session high)
Support 2 : $1.4350 (Apr 6 high)
Support 3 : $1.4240 (Apr 7 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1,4375. Below losses are possible to $1.4350. The nearest resistance - $1.4440. Above growth is possible to $1,4880.

05:21
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Apr 11 2011:

06:00 Germany CPI (March) final 0.5% 0.5%
06:00 Germany CPI (March) final Y/Y 2.1% 2.1%
06:00 Germany HICP (March) final Y/Y 2.2% 2.2%
08:30 UK Trade in goods (February), bln -7.8 -7.1
08:30 UK Non-EU trade (February), bln -4.7 -4.2
08:30 UK HICP (March) 0.6% 0.7%
08:30 UK HICP (March) Y/Y 4.4% 4.4%
08:30 UK HICP ex EFAT (March) Y/Y - 3.4%
08:30 UK Retail prices (March) 0.5% 0.1%
08:30 UK Retail prices (March) Y/Y 5.5% 5.5%
08:30 UK RPI-X (March) Y/Y - 5.5%
09:00 Germany ZEW economic expectations index (April) 11.5 14.1
12:30 USA International trade (February), bln -45.5 -46.3
12:30 USA Import prices (March) 2.0% 1.4%
12:30 USA Export prices (March) - 1.2%
13:00 Canada BOC meeting announcement 1.00% 1.00%
19:00 USA Federal budget (March), bln -189.0 -222.5
23:50 Japan Corporate goods price index (March) domestic 0.3% 0.2%
23:50 Japan Corporate goods price index (March) domestic Y/Y 1.8% 1.7%

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