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11.05.2011
18:55
Dow -164.99 at 12595.37, Nasdaq -35.35 at 2836.37, S&P -18.39 at 1338.77

Stocks are still stuck at session lows.  There isn't a single sector sporting a gain today.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains near its session high.

18:36
Techs on oil:

June light sweet crude holds at $99.46/barrel after trading in a $98.45 to $104.60 range. Last Friday, WTI bottomed at $94.63, which put the front contract down $20.20 or 21.3% from the 31-month high of $114.83 posted May 2. The front contract has closed below its 55-day moving average (at $105.39 currently) since last Thursday and needs to back above to resume gains. WTI briefly dipped below its 100-day (at $98.06 currently) last Friday and again Monday, but has held above that level since. A close below the 100-day would be viewed negatively.

18:17
FED, Lockhart: QE3 may not be needed, but it'd take several mos of large jobs numbers for Fed to remove "extended period".
17:56
EUR/USD slips back below $1.4200 to post a low of $1.4186. Traders eye key supports at $1.4155 (April 18 low) and $1.4150, the 61.8% retrace of the Jan/May rally.
17:38
Dow -159.69 at 12600.90, Nasdaq -35.95 at 2835.94, S&P -18.32 at 1338.84

Selling interest this session has offset the gains the stocks had made during the course of the past two sessions. All three major equity averages are now down with losses of 1% or more, strong quarterly reports have helped a couple of stocks put together enviable gains. Teva Pharma (TEVA 48.46, +1.32) posted an upside surprise this morning. Meanwhile, Macy's (M 28.24, +1.90) not only posted better-than-expected earnings, it also raised its forecast and doubled its quarterly dividend to $0.10 per share.

17:17
US focus: Canadian dollar declines as crude oil drops

Canada’s dollar dropped for the first time in four days against the greenback as crude oil fell after a report showed U.S. inventories rose to a two-year high and North American stocks declined.



The Canadian dollar weakened a day after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the government wants to avoid extreme currency fluctuations.
Crude oil for June delivery fell 4.8% to $98.90 a barrel.
Supplies of crude in the U.S., Canada’s biggest trading partner, jumped 3.78 million barrels to 370.3 million in the week ended May 6, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Inventories were forecast to climb by 1.5 million barrels. The increase puts supplies at the highest level since May 8, 2009.
Canadian employers added a net 58,300 jobs in April after a decrease of 1,500 in the previous month, Statistics Canada reported last week. The median forecast of  economists was for an increase of 20,000. The jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 7.6%.
The nation reported a fourth straight trade surplus in March, the longest string since November 2008 and a sign that exporters are recovering from the global recession.
The surplus widened to C$627 million ($658 million), larger than the C$400 million median forecast.

The pound gained versus the dollar and the euro after the Bank of England said it sees inflation “markedly higher” in the near term, boosting speculation that borrowing costs will rise from record low levels.
The Bank of England left its main interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent on May 5, three days after King indicated he favors keeping borrowing costs on hold, even as inflation accelerates at twice the bank’s 2% limit.

16:52
Barclays Capital on AUD/USD

AUD/USD draggs down, holding around new session low on $1.0682. Barclays Capital technical analysts say "a break over Fibo resistance in the $1.0915 area would suggest a run-up to the $1.1014" On the downside a break of support at $1.0660 would be needed "to signal that further downside correction". Aussie printed high of $1.1014 May 2 and then tumbled 4.4% to $1.0532 May 5.


16:30
Dow -99.60 at 12660.76, Nasdaq -17.31 at 2854.58, S&P -10.16 at 1347.00

Stocks have been undercut by a selling interest. All three major equity averages now trade at new session lows with marked losses.
The market's downturn coincides with an upturn by the dollar, which now sports a 1.0% lead over the euro. At the same time, it has cut its loss against the British pound to less than 0.3% on increased speculation over the potential rate hike by the Bank of England.

15:44
USD/JPY weakens to current Y80.80 area. Bids eyed under the overnight low at Y80.60, extending to Y80.50.
15:01
GOLD:

Yellow metal continues to extend losses to a day's low of $1505.20, a fall of over $21 on the day, with the move prompted by sharp falls in copper.

Silver has also fallen to almost $2.5 to $37.05 after Asian highs of $39.50.

Metals now trading around $1511 and $37.48 respectively.

14:32
US: May 6 wk EIA oil data: crude stocks +3.781m bbl to 370.3m.
14:02
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD; $1.4250
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y115.80
GBP/USD $1.6450
AUD/USD $1.0800

13:51
GBP/USD under pressure

Getting pulled lower by euro-dollar slippage, though euro-sterling also getting pressed lower and taking away some of the weight. Cable extends pullback off earlier highs at $1.6518 to $1.6455, but seen meeting demand ahead of $1.6450. Further demand seen into $1.6435 with talk of stops dotted from below this level and extending toward $1.6400.

13:24
Before the bell:


Stocks were headed for a weak open Wednesday, after the government reported a widening trade deficit and commodity prices pull back.


U.S. stocks rose for the third straight day Tuesday, as investors were encouraged by Microsoft's $8.5 billion deal to buy Skype, along with solid corporate earnings reports and economic data.
Economy: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $48.2 billion in March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists were expecting a $47.7 billion trade deficit.
Companies: Automaker Toyota (TM) said Tuesday that while net income almost doubled and sales increased 0.2% for the fiscal year ended March 31, the earthquake that hit Japan earlier this year cost the company about ¥100 billion.
Also, insurer American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) and the Treasury decided to move ahead with a $9 billion stock offering, despite the recent low price of the stock. Shares of AIG were down about 2% in premarket trade.
Before the opening bell, department store chain Macy's (M, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of 30 cents, compared with 5 cents last year. The company also announced it was doubling its quarterly dividend to 10 cents per share on common stock. Shares of Macy's jumped 5% in premarket trade.
Dow component Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) is slated to issue its results after the closing bell. Analysts expect that the communications equipment maker earned 37 cents a share.
World markets:

Oil for June delivery slipped $1.59 to $102.29 a barrel.
Meanwhile, gas prices resumed their climb toward $4 a gallon after four straight days of declines. The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline increased 1.1 cents to $3.962, according to AAA.
Gold futures for June delivery fell $3.30 to $1,513.60 an ounce.
Silver futures for July delivery fell 78 cents to $37.71.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was down ever so slightly with the yield at 3.23%.

13:06
Pierpont: Q1 GDP continues running at about +2%

"The trade report is indicative of vigorous activity. Both exports and imports of goods exploded in March, up 6.1% and 5.7% respectively. The upside surprises relative to forecast were widespread across categories, especially on the export side."

12:37
OIL: June WTI slips again to $102.10 just ahead of support at $102.04 with a break opening to $100.70
12:31
US: Mar trade balance -$48.2b (vs -$45.4b in Feb and its worst since Junу 2010)
12:17
European session:

The euro slipped against the majority of its most-traded peers on speculation European leaders are slowing the drive to grant Greece additional aid, fueling concern the nation may be forced to restructure its debt.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday said Greece needs to stay the course on budget cuts to deserve an extension of the 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) lifeline granted last year.
The pound surged as the Bank of England said U.K. inflation may reach 5 percent this year.
The pound strengthened to a one-month high versus the euro after the Bank of England said the outlook for growth has deteriorated in the past three months and that it sees inflation “markedly higher” in the near term.

EUR/USD: traded within $1,4370-$1,4420 range before reached $1.4360.
GBP/USD: jumped to $1.6500/10 on initial react to release of the BOE Inflation Report, from around $1.6420.
USD/JPY: reached Y81.25 before eased back to Y81.13.



US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 1230GMT, the international trade gap is expected to widen to $47.7 billion in March. Import prices surged in the month, though petroleum prices were again a large part of that gain. At the same time, Boeing reported 98 aircraft orders in March, up sharply from 21 in February. This is followed by the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data  at 1430GMT. 
Later on, at 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $65.0 billion budget gap in the April tax month, smaller than the$82.7 billion gap in April 2010.
12:02
OPEC 2011 world demand grwth outlook: +1.41m b/d vs +1.39m prev
  • OPEC forecasts 2011 non-opec supply +0.65m b/d to 52.91m b/d;
  • OPEC sees Q2 demand for opec crude at 29.0m b/d, 30.9m q3;
  • OPEC Apr production averaged 28.99m b/d, +70k b/d vs mar.
10:27
BOE KING: CPI remains uncomfortably high
  • Great deal of uncertainty about CPI outlook;
  • Risk high inflation to push up inflation expectation;
  • Risk of upward pressure on wages, prices;
  • Output remains about 4% below pre-crisis peak;
  • MPC sees recent growth softness temporary;
  • GDP two year outlook broadly unchanged from Feb;
  • MPC needs to look through monthly CPI volatility;
  • No one knows how monpol needs to respond;
  • MPC united in determination to get CPI to target;
  • Faced with genuine puzzles in labour market trends;
  • Q1 GDP showed clear sign of pickup in manufacturing, services;
  • Not expecting especially strong recovery, seen modest;
  • Domestic inflation pressures are well below target;
  • Low domestic CPI pressures highlights MPC dilemma.
10:17
BOE KING: CPI remains uncomfortably high
  • Great deal of uncertainty about CPI outlook;
  • Risk high inflation to push up inflation expectation;
  • Risk of upward pressure on wages, prices;
  • Output remains about 4% below pre-crisis peak;
  • MPC sees recent growth softness temporary;
  • GDP two year outlook broadly unchanged from Feb;
  • MPC needs to look through monthly CPI volatility;
  • No one knows how monpol needs to respond;
  • MPC united in determination to get CPI to target;
  • Faced with genuine puzzles in labour market trends;
  • Q1 GDP showed clear sign of pickup in manufacturing, services;
  • Not expecting especially strong recovery, seen modest;
  • Domestic inflation pressures are well below target;
  • Low domestic CPI pressures highlights MPC dilemma.
09:54
GBP/USD jumped higher on BOE Inflation Report

Spiked to $1.6465 on initial react to release of the BOE Inflation Report, from around $1.6420, with rate easing back to $1.6440/35 on profit take sales, rate had ben on the rise into the release, with fresh demand into the dip extending recovery to $1.6470. Resistance now seen into $1.6480 with stronger interest placed between $1.6500/10, ahead of $1.6545/50.

09:38
BOE: CPI JUST ABOVE 1.9% IN 2YRS TIME ON MODAL, MARKET RATES
  • CHANCES CPI ABOVE/BELOW 2.0% TARGET IN 2YRS ROUGHLY EQUAL
09:30
FTSE +0.04% 6,022, CAC +0.28% 4,064, DAX +0.57% 7,545
09:07
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4375, $1.4400, $1.4250
GBP/USD Y80.00, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y82.85, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y115.80
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6250, $1.6390, $1.6450, $1.6650
EUR/GBP stg0.8800
AUD/USD $1.0900, $1.0800
AUD/JPY Y90.00

08:32
UK Data: UK Mar Global Goods Trade Deficit Stg7.66bn
08:11
Asian stocks close:

Nikkei + 0.46% 9,864.26

Shanghai Composite -0.25% 2,883.42
Hang Seng -0.16% 23,299

08:02
Asian session:

Data:
02:00 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 6.8%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 17.1%
02:00 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 5.3%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) 13.4%

The yen maintained losses against most of its major counterparts as signs the global economic recovery is picking up supported stocks and commodities, damping demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
The dollar snapped a two-day loss against the euro before data forecast to show initial jobless claims dropped and retail sales rose. 
The Australian dollar pared gains after China said today that inflation surpassed its target level for a fourth month, spurring expectations the nation will take more measures to cool growth. 
China’s consumer prices rose 5.3 percent in April from a year earlier after gaining 5.4 percent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said, showing that inflation had exceeded Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 percent target each month this year. Separate reports showed China’s industrial production advanced 13.4 percent last month and retail sales grew 17.1 percent.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4370-$ 1,4420.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6340-$ 1,6380.
USD/JPY: the pair shown high in the field of Y81,11 then decreased in around Y80,75.

UK data includes BoE quoted rates data and also March trade data, at 0830GMT. The February visible trade deficit was the narrowest since the same month a year ago, and exports hit a record high, although it is far too early to declare success in the hoped for rebalancing of the UK economy, whereby improvements in net trade would offset weaker domestic demand. With the February figures boosted by erratics, analysts' median forecast is for a widening across the range of March deficits - visible to stg7.5 billion, total to stg3.3 billion and non-EU to stg3.4 billion. The UK then releases the Bank of England inflation report at 0930GMT, while also in the UK today, UK Chancellor George 
Osborne Speaks at an IoD event at the 02 Arena.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 1230GMT, the international trade gap is expected to widen to $47.7 billion in March. Import prices surged in the month, though petroleum prices were again a large part of that gain. At the same time, Boeing reported 98 aircraft orders in March, up sharply from 21 in February. This is followed by the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data  at 1430GMT. 
Later on, at 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $65.0 billion budget gap in the April tax month, smaller than the$82.7 billion gap in April 2010.

07:58
Forex: Tuesday's review

The yen and the Swiss franc slid versus most major counterparts, with Japan’s currency dropping against the euro for the first time in six days, as stocks and commodities advanced, damping demand for safer assets.
The euro fluctuated versus the dollar after a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a restructuring of Greece’s debt isn’t being considered, while a European Union official said the nation’s fiscal progress is being studied.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in Zurich today the EU will keep up its efforts to aid Greece after bailing out the country a year ago.
The German newspaper Handelsblatt reported Euro-area countries are readying a further “two-digit” billion-euro loan for Greece, the newspaper reported, citing unidentified “euro- zone sources” in Brussels. The exact figure is still to be decided, the newspaper said, adding that a figure of some 60 billion euros is being discussed in Brussels.
The Athens newspaper Kathimerini said, without citing its sources, that the IMF also is arranging new aid for Greece, an 80 billion-euro ($115 billion) to 100 billion-euro plan
Speculation about new financial assistance from Europe and the IMF came after S&P yesterday downgraded Greece’s credit rating for the fourth time since April 2010, rekindling concern that the region’s debt crisis is escalating.  The Swiss franc dropped after data showed inflation slowed in April.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in around $1,4400.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1,6370.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around Y80,90.

UK data includes BoE quoted rates data and also March trade data, at 0830GMT. The February visible trade deficit was the narrowest since the same month a year ago, and exports hit a record high, although it is far too early to declare success in the hoped for rebalancing of the UK economy, whereby improvements in net trade would offset weaker domestic demand. With the February figures boosted by erratics, analysts' median forecast is for a widening across the range of March deficits - visible to stg7.5 billion, total to stg3.3 billion and non-EU to stg3.4 billion. The UK then releases the Bank of England inflation report at 0930GMT, while also in the UK today, UK Chancellor George 
Osborne Speaks at an IoD event at the 02 Arena.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 1230GMT, the international trade gap is expected to widen to $47.7 billion in March. Import prices surged in the month, though petroleum prices were again a large part of that gain. At the same time, Boeing reported 98 aircraft orders in March, up sharply from 21 in February. This is followed by the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data  at 1430GMT. 
Later on, at 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $65.0 billion budget gap in the April tax month, smaller than the$82.7 billion gap in April 2010.

07:03
Stocks: Tuesday's review

Japanese stocks gained as better earnings outlook among Japanese companies overshadowed concerns about the Europe’s debt crisis and the weaker euro.
Sumitomo Heavy Industries Ltd. (6302), a maker of heavy electric machinery, surged 12 percent after forecasting profit will rise. Denki Kagaku Kogyo K.K., a chemical products maker, soared 8 percent after saying it expects higher profit this fiscal year. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, led gains in carmakers after the Nikkei newspaper reported its output may return to normal earlier than expected. Nintendo Co., a video- game console maker that gets a third of its revenue from Europe, retreated 1.6 percent.
European stocks climbed as InterContinental Hotels Group Plc (IHG) and Deutsche Post AG (DPW) posted increased earnings, helping to reassure investors that the global economic recovery remains intact.
InterContinental Hotels surged 3.9 percent after reporting a 28 percent jump in first-quarter profit as travel recovered in the Americas. Deutsche Post gained 1.3 percent after the world’s biggest carrier of air and sea freight by volume reported first- quarter earnings before interest and taxes that exceeded the average of 14 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Per-share profit at the 234 companies that have reported results in the Stoxx 600 index since April 11 has expanded 8.8 percent, with 59 percent beating analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
U.S. stocks rose for a third day as higher-than-estimated profit forecasts and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)’s purchase of Skype Technologies SA bolstered optimism that earnings and takeovers will continue to fuel the rally.
Dean Foods Co. (DF), the largest U.S. milk processor, jumped 12 percent after its earnings forecast beat analysts’ estimates. Microsoft fell 1.4 percent after agreeing to buy Skype for $8.5 billion to expand its Internet presence after past failures. Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE) gained 1.7 percent, pacing gains in raw- material producers, as metal prices advanced before the release of figures that may show weaker inflation in China.
The S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent to 1,353.99 at 2 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge for American equities rose for a second day yesterday as commodities rebounded from the biggest weekly drop since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 53.66 points, or 0.4 percent, to 12,738.34 today.

07:02
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 2: Y81.70 (May 2 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.10/20 (May 4 high, session high) 
Current price: Y80.84
Support 1:Y80.50 (support line from May 5)  
Support 2:Y80.15 (May 10 low)  
Support 3:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  
Comments: the pair bargains below mark Y81,00. The nearest resistance - Y81.10/20. Above growth is possible to Y81.70. The nearest support - Y80.50. Below losses are possible to Y80.15. 

06:52
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9010 (Apr 19 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8875 (Apr 22-25 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8825 (around of Apr 27 and May 10 high)
Current price: Chf0.8796
Support 1: Chf0.8780 (support line from May 5)
Support 2: Chf0.8700 (May 10 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8675 (May 6 low)
Comments: the pair slightly decreased. The nearest support - Chf0,8780. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8700. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8825. Above is located Chf0.8875. 

06:48
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (May 6 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6420 (May 10 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6380 (session high)
Current price: $1.6364
Support 1 : $1.6315 (May 10 low)
Support 2 : $1.6270 (May 9 low)
Support 3 : $1.6220 (Apr 12, 13 and 19 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,6360. The nearest support $1.6315. Below is  possible testings of arouns $1.6270. The nearest resistance - around $1.6380. Above growth is possible to $1.6420. 

06:01
GERMANY DATA: harmonized consumer price inflation in April +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y
05:58
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.4600 (50,0 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.4250, May 6 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4510 (38,2 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.4250)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4420 (session high, May 10 high)
Current price: $1.4397
Support 1 : $1.4250 (May 9 low)
Support 2 : $1.4150 (Apr 18 low, 38.2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.4940)
Support 3 : $1.4020 (Mar 28 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,4400. The nearest support $1,4250. Below losses are possible to $1.4150. The nearest resistance - $1.4420. Above growth is possible to $1,4510.

 

05:22
Schedule for today, Tuesday, May 10 2011:

02:00 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 6.8%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 17.1%
02:00 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 5.3%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) 13.4%
05:00 Japan  Leading indicators composite index (February) preliminary 99.9 104.2
05:00 Japan Coincident indicators composite index (February) preliminary 103.9 106.8
06:00 Germany CPI (April) final 0.2% 0.2%
06:00 Germany CPI (April) final Y/Y 2.4% 2.4%
06:00 Germany HICP (April) final Y/Y 2.6% 2.6%
06:00 Germany Wholesale prices (April) 1.0% 1.3%
06:00 Germany Wholesale prices (April) Y/Y 9.9% 10.9%
08:30 UK Trade in goods (March), bln -7.4 -6.8
09:30 UK BoE quarterly inflation report  
12:30 USA International trade (March), bln -46.8 -45.8
19:00 USA Federal budget (April), bln -65.0 -188.2
23:01 UK Nationwide consumer confidence (April) 47 44
23:50 Japan Current account (March) unadjusted, trln 1.730 1.641
23:50 Japan Trade balance (March) unadjusted, trln 0.303 0.723

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