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11.04.2011
19:11
Dow +20.66 at 12400.32, Nasdaq -8.23 at 2772.60, S&P -1.63 at 1326.64

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have slowly trimmed some of their losses, but both are still stuck in negative territory. Meanwhile, the Dow is trying to reclaim lost gains. Strength among blue chips remains modest, though.
Although the Dow's gain has been limited all day, it has steadily outperformed its counterparts. Most of its relative strength stems from buying interest in Travelers (TRV 60.52, +0.94) and Kraft (KFT 32.04, +0.37), both of which are up more than 1%.

18:52
OIL: Losses steepening after the NYMEX close, now down $3.35 at $109.44.
18:49
EUR/JPY under pressure

EUR/JPY continues to respect bids ahead of Y122.00 but weighing heavily on those as euro remains with a weak tone. Risk may be for tight stops below.

18:25
EUR/USD weakens

EUR/USD trades around $1.4435 as USD/JPY scores a slight bounce to Y84.68 after seeing lows at Y84.51. Bids remain $1.4415/20, stops possible below.


18:20
USD/JPY recovers from lows around Y84.51 with bids and stops around Y84.50 still.
17:36
OIL: Nursing steep losses, is down $2.60 at $110.18, a little above the bottom of the day's $109.55/113.46 range thus far.
17:04
US focus: Yen gains as Japan's latest quake cuts demand for higher-yielding assets

The yen gained Monday, rising from an 11-month low against the euro, after an aftershock of Japan’s March 11 earthquake discouraged demand for higher-yielding assets.
The dollar remained lower versus the yen as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said the gain in food and fuel costs doesn’t warrant a reversal of monetary stimulus.

The euro fell against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank’s recent interest-rate increase may make it harder for nations including Ireland and Portugal to contain debt.
The euro has gained 8% against the dollar since the start of this year as improving economic growth in Germany and accelerating inflation boosted speculation that interest rates would be lifted.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and colleagues raised the main refinancing rate last week to 1.25% from a record low 1%, where it had been since 2009, and left the door open for further rate increases.
Portugal will start negotiations with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund this week on a rescue package estimated at 80 billion euros ($115 billion.)
The Dollar Index dropped 0.2% to 74.940 after falling on April 8 to as low as 74.838, the least since December 2009.
U.S. congressional leaders and President Barack Obama averted a government shutdown by reaching an agreement on April 8, less than two hours before the government’s funding authority was due to expire.

16:47
Dow +35.54 at 12415.59, Nasdaq -4.77 at 2775.65, S&P +0.66 at 1328.83

Increased selling pressure recently took the broad market to a fresh session low, which actually came with a slight loss. It has since worked its way back above the flat line.
Materials stocks are falling more sharply out of favor. The sector was already one of the worst performers this past Friday, but today the sector is down another 0.5%. The sector's weakness comes even though both Monsanto (MON 67.20, +0.98) and BHP Billiton (BHP 10320, +1.88) are boasting impressive gains in response to a couple of analyst upgrades.

15:46
Dow +48.82 at 12428.87, Nasdaq +1.85 at 2782.87, S&P +3.26 at 1331.43

Recent selling pressure knocked the Nasdaq into the red, but it has recovered since than. It remains well below its opening level, though. As for the Dow and S&P 500, both were pressured, but neither suffered any kind of an actual loss. Their gains remain modest.

15:12
EUR/GBP recovered

EUR/GBP recovered off lows at stg0.8790 to the figure. Resistance remains at stg0.8825 (stg0.88265 38.2% stg0.88600/065. If rate can hold below stg0.8830 seen keeping attention focused on the downside with next support noted between stg0.8800/0.8795.

14:57
USD/CAD holds tight

USD/CAD holds C$0.9565 area in thin market, about the middle of a tight C$0.9555/75 range seen since the start of the local session. Pair still seen as a sell on rallies. Offers around C$0.9600. Bids back at C$0.9520 area.

09:25
FTSE -0.05% 6,053, CAC -0.74% 4,032, DAX -0.66% 7,169
08:40
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4220, $1.4200
EUR/JPY Y85.50, Y85.00, Y84.50, Y83.30, Y82.90, Y82.50
EUR/JPY 118.75
GBP/USD $1.6050
EUR/CHF Chf1.3250

08:25
Asian stocks close:

Hang Seng -0.38% 24,303.07
Shanghai Composite -0.24% 3022.75
Nikkei -0.50% 9719.70

07:57
Asian session: The euro fell

The euro fell against most of its major peers on speculation its advance to a 15-month high against the dollar was excessive given lingering concern Europe’s debt crisis may worsen.
Europe’s common currency retreated from its highest level since May 2010 against the yen as technical charts signaled the past month’s 7.7 percent rally may reverse. 
Europe’s common currency also weakened as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that Greece might need more financial relief, reviving European debt concerns just as Portugal seeks an 80 billion-euro ($116 billion) aid package.
The euro climbed against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts in the past three months amid prospects of interest-rate increases for the region. The European Central Bank raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent April 7.
The currency’s 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 71 today, more than the 70 level that indicates to some traders an asset’s price may reverse direction. Against the yen, its RSI was 73.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4440-$ 1,4480
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,6320.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y84,70.

07:48
Stocks: Weekly review

Asian equities prospered this week in spite of a big aftershock in Japan that rattled investors’ nerves on Thursday.
Although the 7.1 magnitude tremor happened during the Asian night while all the region’s markets were closed, equity indices in Europe and US felt the impact of investor concerns.
On Friday, however, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Average was up 1.9 per cent to 9,768.08, overcoming early losses that took the indicator to its lowest level of week. Over the five sessions, the Nikkei rose 0.6 per cent.
Tokyo Electric Power had another miserable week, but its losses slowed markedly as traders spoke of some corrective buying after engineers said no additional damage had been caused to its Fukushima nuclear plant by Thursday’s aftershock. On Friday, the shares were up 23.5 per cent, but remained 6.5 per cent lower over the week at Y420.
Banking stocks in Japan turned higher in the past two sessions after the country’s central bank said it was offering a further Y1,000bn ($11.7bn) in emergency loans to help the banks finance rebuilding efforts following March’s earthquake and tsunami. Chiba Bank was up 1.1 per cent over the week to Y478, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial added 0.9 per cent to Y393.
Shanghai and Hong Kong stocks shrugged off the latest interest rate increase by the People’s Bank of China – a 25 basis point rise to 6.31 per cent. This was the fourth such move from the central bank since October and investors appeared relieved that a measured approach to monetary tightening had been maintained.
The Shanghai Composite index climbed 2.1 per cent to 3,030.02 over the week, led by its financial components, including a 5.4 per cent gain by Hua Xia Bank to Rmb13.64.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 2.5 per cent over the week to 24,396.07.
Seoul’s Kospi Composite had a turbulent week, but gained 0.3 per cent to 2,127.97. Samsung Electronics had the biggest negative impact after it reported that its first-quarter profit had fallen to a two-year low. The shares were down 4.5 per cent over the week to Won898,000.
Indian shares jumped 1.5 per cent on Monday but slipped during the remainder of the week to stand just 0.2 per cent higher at 19,451.45 over the five sessions, as concerns over corruption re-emerged after charges were brought against three telecoms groups and a former government minister.

European stocks continued their bull run this week, led by banking stocks, which were boosted by Portugal’s decision to seek financial assistance from the European Union.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed 0.4 per cent higher on Friday at 1,148.45, up 0.6 per cent on the week. The index has now risen 7.5 per cent from a low hit after the Japanese earthquake.
Portuguese financials rose in the wake of Wednesday evening’s announcement by José Sócrates, outgoing prime minister, that Lisbon would seek financial aid from the European Union.
Friday’s close saw Banco BPI 5.9 per cent higher than a week earlier, at €1.31, while Millennium BCP rose 3.9 per cent to €0.61.
Lisbon’s PSI 20 index was 0.6 per cent higher for the week at 7,911.39.
Other peripheral eurozone markets also benefited from renewed interest in banking stocks. Spain’s Ibex 35 climbed 1.7 per cent to 10,914.4, with Banco Santander gaining 2.7 per cent to €8.63.
Greek stocks saw choppier trading as speculation about debt restructuring continued, but the Athens General index recovered from falls in the first half of the week to end 0.3 per cent higher at 1,530.98.
Italy’s MIB index was 2 per cent higher at 22,389.98. Intesa Sanpaolo gained 7.1 per cent to end the week at €2.26. The bank’s announcement on Wednesday that it would carry out a €5bn rights issue had been widely anticipated. The move followed similar steps by UBI Banca and Banco Popolare.
Parmalat, whose shares surged last month as investors priced in a possible takeover move by Lactalis, slipped 4 per cent to €2.30 on speculation that the French company could drop its interest in the dairy producer.
Germany’s Dax index pushed 0.6 per cent higher to 7,217.52.
An announcement by Commerzbank of an €11bn capital increase saw its shares surge on Wednesday as short-sellers closed positions, but it ended the week 3.9 per cent lower at €5.25. The share price has fallen by 17.1 per cent from a peak on March 3.
Insurance companies with exposure to the Japanese earthquake continued their gradual recovery, although they dipped following reports of a large aftershock on Thursday. Munich Re ended the week 1.5 per cent higher at €115.80, while Swiss Re gained 4 per cent to SFr56.61.
French energy companies were hit by the state’s decision to cancel a proposed gas price hike and curb electricity increases. EDF fell 6.7 per cent to €27.38, while GDF Suez was 3.3 per cent lower at €27.42.
Airlines were dragged lower by concerns about higher oil prices. Lufthansa slipped 1.9 per cent to €14.72, and Air France by 1.5 per cent to €11.47.
Carmakers ended the week lower despite denials by senior industry figures of supply chain problems stemming from Japan.

Shares in Expedia made strong gains after the online travel company announced it was splitting in two, and the wider markets were led higher by material and energy stocks as a weaker dollar pushed up commodity prices.
Investors reacted positively to the news that Expedia was spinning off its lucrative TripAdvisor business, sending shares in the company up 14.8 per cent to $25.71.
Analysts roundly approved of the move, saying that the plan could help unlock value for the high-growth and high-margin TripAdvisor. “We view such corporate activity as a positive catalyst for Expedia shareholders,” said analysts at Citi Investment Research.
In the wider markets, the S&P 500 was up 0.4 per cent to 1,339.34 in early trading, recovering from the 0.2 per cent losses in the previous session. On Thursday, the S&P 500 had lost 0.7 per cent in the minutes after news that another earthquake had hit the already devastated north-east coast of Japan. However, the index closed only 0.2 per cent lower for the day after the tsunami warning was lifted and officials at the nuclear agency reported no further troubles.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3 per cent to 12,450.06 on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4 per cent to 2,807.58.
Material stocks led the gains as the dollar has hit a fresh 15-month low, lifting commodity prices. Freeport-McMoRan, the largest copper miner in the world by market capitalisation, was up 1.8 per cent to $58.49 while Alcoa, the aluminium producer, added 1.3 per cent to $18.35. The S&P materials index added 1 per cent.
In the energy sector the advance was led by oilfield services stocks. Nabors Industries, the world’s largest land rig contractor, added 3.7 per cent to $31.62 while Helmerich & Payne gained 3.5 per cent to $69.87. The S&P energy index was up 0.8 per cent.
Elsewhere in the energy sector Hercules Offshore lost ground after announcing that it was under investigation by the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares in the oil exploration group were down 9.8 per cent to $5.75.
Seagate Technology added 8.2 per cent to $15.90 after the hard-disk manufacturer reported third-quarter sales that topped analysts’ estimates and announced that it will reinstate its dividend payments.
Costco Wholesale lost 0.9 per cent to $77.15 after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the stock to “neutral” from “buy”. In the previous session the warehouse club chain reported that same-store sales had risen 13 per cent in March, beating analysts’ expectations.
Bally Technologies lost 1 per cent to $37.29 after the gaming-technology company cut its annual earnings estimate to between $1.82 to $1.95 a share, from $2 to $2.15 a share. Analysts forecast $2.02 a share on average.

07:02
FOREX: weekly review

The dollar hit a 15-month low this week as the prospect that US interest rates would stay at ultra-low levels weighed on the currency.
This was put sharply into focus on Thursday after the European Central Bank delivered its first interest rate rise since the start of the financial crisis in an attempt to fight inflation.
The central bank lifted its main lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent, while Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, signalled more tightening to come.
Over the week, the dollar index, which tracks the US unit’s progress against a basket of six leading currencies, fell 1 per cent to 75.070, its weakest level since December 2009.
The dollar also dropped to 15-month lows against the euro and the pound, falling 1.5 per cent to $1.4437 and 1.8 per cent to $1.6393 respectively on the week. It also fell 1.4 per cent to SFr0.9110 against the Swiss franc over the week.
Analysts said the prospect of an extended period of easy monetary policy in the US – combined with rising investor optimism – was encouraging investors to use the dollar to fund carry trades, in which the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets is financed by selling low-yielding currencies.
Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said the yen was also the other clear carry trade funding currency given that Japan was likely to keep rates lower for longer than even the US as it battled deflation and the aftermath of last month’s earthquake.
Indeed, the yen dropped 1.3 per cent to a six-month low of Y85.10 against the dollar over the week and lost 2.8 per cent to an 11-month trough of Y122.86 against the euro.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar which, given its relatively high yield is a favourite target for carry trade investors, rose 1.4 per cent to a fresh 29-year high of $1.0531 against the US dollar on the week and climbed 2.8 per cent to a 2½-year high of Y89.65 against the yen.

06:47
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (Aug 13 high) 
Resistance 2:Y85.90 (Sep 16-17 high) 
Resistance 1:Y85.50 (Apr 6-7 high) 
Current price: Y84.78
Support 1:Y84.60 (Apr 7 low, session low)    
Support 2:Y83.80 (Apr 4 low)    
Support 3:Y82.50 (Mar 31 low)    
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Y84,60. Below losses are possible to Y83.80. The nearest resistance - Y85.50. Above growth is possible to Y85.90. 

06:35
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9290 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9200 (Apr 7 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9110 (resistance line from Apr 6)
Current price: Chf0.9080
Support 1: Chf0.9070 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9030 (Mar 24 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8980 (Mar 23 low)
Comments: the pair  decreased. The nearest support - Chf0,9070. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9030. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9110. Above is located Chf0.9200. 

06:34
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (Jan'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6430 (Apr 8 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6390 (session high)
Current price: $1.6366
Support 1 : $1.6345 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6260 (Apr 6-7 low)
Support 3 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,6360. The nearest resistance - area $1.6390. Above growth is possible to $1.6430. The nearest support $1.6345. Below is possible testings of around $1.6260. 

06:14
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4780 (around of Dec 9-11'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4480 (session high)
Current price: $1.4461
Support 1 : $1.4440 (session high)
Support 2 : $1.4350 (Apr 6 high)
Support 3 : $1.4240 (Apr 7 low)
Comments: the pair pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance - $1.4480. Above growth is possible to $1,4580. The nearest support $1,4440. Below losses are possible to $1.4350.  

05:25
Schedule for today, Monday, Apr 11 2011:

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance (Mar) -23% -26%
23:50 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

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