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11.02.2011
19:37
Dow +34.51 at 12263.80, Nasdaq +15.65 at 2806.10, S&P +6.15 at 1328.10

The Nasdaq has stretched to a fresh session high, which also makes for a new two-year high. Its move this session has been led by the likes of Apple (AAPL 357.40, +2.86) and Google (GOOG 623.77, +7.33).
In contrast, Nasdaq member Microsoft (MSFT 27.27, -0.23) is under stiff pressure. Investors have shown a negative response to news that the company has formed a business partnership with Nokia (NOK 9.19, -1.69).

18:03
American focus: dollar gains across the board

The dollar rose against most of its major counterparts as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down and handed power to the military.
The greenback headed for a third weekly gain versus the euro as Mubarak bowed to the demands of protesters, who are likely to call for immediate elections.
“After the Egyptian announcement, the market quickly realized that there is a lot of uncertainty about who is going to take control, how these elections are going to progress and what the next government is going to look like, so you saw risk aversion quickly return,” said Blake Jespersen, director of foreign exchange in Toronto at Bank of Montreal. “The U.S. dollar is gaining modestly from this.”
Australia’s currency slid below parity with the dollar after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said policy makers judged it “sensible” to keep interest rates on hold. The head of Germany’s central bank resigned, while data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose.

17:45
ECB TRICHET: Must remain permanently alert on inflation
  • Medium-term price risks broadly balanced, could move to upside;
  • Presently seeing price rises largely reflecting energy;
  • This year and next, inflation expected at just below 2%;
  • EMU monetary policy will continue to deliver price stability;
  • Must ensure all governments have sound public finances;
  • Need fundamental reforms in EMU economic pillar;
  • Have obligation to fix flaws in Stability Pact;
  • Recovery signs can't mask urgency of governance reform.
17:29
Dow +25.09 at 12254.38, Nasdaq +8.05 at 2798.50, S&P +4.83 at 1326.70

Stocks recently pulled back a bit from session highs after news of the resignation of Egypt's President Mubarak was digested. They have since regrouped to reclaim gains.
Financials have emerged as a leader in recent trade; the sector is up 1.1%, which is more than double the gain of any other sector. Financials are currently led by regional banks like SunTrust (STI 32.72, +1.13) and Regions Financial (RF 8.07, +0.34). Collectively, regional banks are up 2.2%, which puts the group back near nine-month highs. Regional banks are up 2.6% week to date.

16:46
Dow +20.74 at 12250.03, Nasdaq +5.92 at 2796.37, S&P +3.46 at 1325.33

Stocks have extended their morning push into positive territory. The vertical move has accelerated with news that Egypt's President Mubarak has resigned.
News of Mubarak's resignation has caused oil prices to pull back so that crude prices trade with a loss of more than 1% at about $85.65 per barrel.

16:20
Oil skidded lower in the wake of the Egypt headlines about Mubarak resignation

Oil trades at $86.47, down $0.27 and in the lower end of the day's $85.62/87.77 range.

16:13
CNN: Mubarak has stepped down.
15:45
USD/JPY declines

USD/JPY holds Y83.33 after printing the morning high at Y83.67. Dollar offers likely still around that Y83.70 area with stops tight above, followed by further supply into and beyond Y84.00.

15:34
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ on consumer sentiment

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ says prelim Feb U-Michigan consumer sentiment was +0.9 pt and "current conditions index jumped +5.0 pts to 86.8 (the highest level since Jan'08), but expectations declined by 1.7 pts to 67.6." The latter may reflect concern about "rising gas prices and unrest in the Middle East."

15:13
EGYPT:

Media reports that Egyptian President Mubarak has left Cairo and has arrived with his family to the resort city of Sharm el- Sheikh. AlJazeera reports that a "urgent and important" statement is expected from the presidential palace shortly.

15:02
US: Feb prelim Rtrs/U-Mich consumer sentiment 75.1
  • current conds 86.8
  • expectations 67.6
14:51
FX OPTIONS: expiries for the 1500GMT cut
EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3500, $1.3620, $1.3725                   
USD/JPY Y82.25, Y82.35, Y82.46, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.25, Y84.00, Y85.40
USD/CHF chf1.0000
AUD/USD $0.9735, $0.9825, $0.9950, $1.0000
AUD/CAD C$0.9680
14:33
Goldman ahead of Cons. sentiment

Analysts at Goldman say the prelim Feb Rtrs/U-Michigan consumer sentiment might show a small increase. They also note the 5y inflation estimate has held a tight 2.7%-2.9% range since November 2009. Median estimate of surveyed economists is 75 vs 74.2 in Jan final reading.

14:31
Before the bell: Stocks may open lower

Stocks were set for early losses Friday after declines in Europe, amid concerns about Egypt's future. After weeks of anti-government protests, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said late Thursday that he would delegate powers to the vice president, but remain the titular head of his country.

Economy: As expected, the White House proposed a plan Friday morning to wind down beleaguered mortgage backing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in an effort to reform the housing market.
The U.S. trade gap widened to $40.6 billion in December (the highest level in three months), according to government data. Analysts expected the trade balance to have widened to $40.4 billion, from $38.3 billion in November.
A report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan comes out after the market opens.
Companies: Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia (NOK) announced plans to use Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 smartphone platform, in a bid to compete with Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) iPhone and Google's (GOOG, Fortune 500) Android.

14:14
IMF/ECB/EC STATEMENT on third review mission to Greece
  • Greece program has made further progress toward goals
  • Needed fiscal, broader reforms being implemented
  • Major reforms needed for economic recovery, fiscal sustainability
  • Still expect economy to stabilize late in 2011
  • Govt's full commitment to institutional change critical
  • Tight liquidity, rising non-performing loans straining bank system
  • Private banks have had some recent success raising capital
  • Govt must progress on stability of state-controlled banks
  • Mission for next program review planned for May 2011
14:12
IMF/ECB/EC STATEMENT on third review mission to Greece
  • Greece program has made further progress toward goals
  • Needed fiscal, broader reforms being implemented
  • Major reforms needed for economic recovery, fiscal sustainability
  • Still expect economy to stabilize late in 2011
  • Govt's full commitment to institutional change critical
  • Tight liquidity, rising non-performing loans straining bank system
  • Private banks have had some recent success raising capital
  • Govt must progress on stability of state-controlled banks
  • Mission for next program review planned for May 2011
13:55
Wall Stree: Futures continue to nurse slight losses as the morning moves along, Dow futures down 34 points, Nasdaq futures off 5.
13:42
EUR/USD holds above $1.3530

EUR/USD continues to holds around $1.3530 area after the US trade report, looking for a driver. Focus remains on Egypt and that still supports dollar. Bids remain at $1.3500 with pptions there too. Resistance in the $1.3575/80 area of the Thursday lows.

13:31
US: Dec trade bal -$40.6b
13:31
Canada: Dec International Merchandise Trade $3.00B
13:11
EU session review: Dollar strengthens as Egypt's turmoil, stock losses spur demand for haven

Data released
07:00     Germany     CPI (January) final    -0.4%    -0.5%    1.0%
07:00     Germany     CPI (January) final Y/Y    2.0%    1.9%    1.7%
07:00     Germany     HICP (January) final Y/Y    2.0%    2.0%    1.9%
07:00     Germany     Wholesale prices (January)    1.2%    1.0%    1.8%
07:00     Germany     Wholesale prices (January) Y/Y    9.4%    9.0%    9.5%
09:30     UK     PPI (Output) (January) unadjusted    1.0%    0.5%    0.5%
09:30     UK     PPI (Output) (January) unadjusted Y/Y    4.8%    4.4%    4.2%
09:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (January) adjusted    0.7%    0.3%    0.2%
09:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (January) unadjusted Y/Y    3.2%    -    2.9%
09:30     UK     PPI (Input) (January) adjusted    1.7%    0.9%    3.4%
09:30     UK     PPI (Input) (January) unadjusted Y/Y    13.4%    12.0%    12.5%

The dollar rose as speculation turmoil in Egypt will get worse and a decline in global equities boosted demand for the safety of U.S. assets.
The greenback headed for a third weekly gain versus the euro after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak defied calls for his immediate resignation, agreeing only to delegate powers until an election in September.
Mubarak said during a broadcast interview that he intended to stay on as president until the elections, while handing day- to-day powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares fell 0.7%, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.7% and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.5%.
Dollar Versus Yen
Australia’s dollar weakened for a third day versus the greenback as Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said that there was no urgency to boost borrowing costs in the first half of the year, leading traders to cut bets on the amount of rate increases over the next 12 months.

EUR/USD weakened to the lows around $1.3504 and set stable within the $1.3504/30 range.

GBP/USD fell from $1.6070 to $1.5960 before recovered to $1.5995.

USD/JPY tested year's high on Y83.70 before retreated to current Y83.55.

The dollar was poised for a 1.7% weekly gain versus the yen, its biggest since Jan. 7, before a U.S. report economists said will show consumer confidence improved.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 75, the highest level since June, from 74.2 in January, according to the median forecast of economists.

12:50
GERMANY, Bundesbank Board member Dombret: Closely eyeing food, commodity mkts
  • Also eying wage rounds carefully
  • But believe price stability assured at moment
12:47
GERMANY, Bundesbank Board member Dombret: Closely eyeing food, commodity mkts
  • Also eying wage rounds carefully
  • But believe price stability assured at moment
12:46
ECB NOYER: Energy, food price driven price hike short lived
  • Very vigilant that no second-round effects emerge
  • Base scenario inflation to fall under 2% before end-2011
12:45
ECB NOYER: Energy, food price driven price hike short lived
  • Very vigilant that no second-round effects emerge
  • Base scenario inflation to fall under 2% before end-2011

 

12:29
ECB NOYER: Need strict budget policies in eurozone
  • Need to improve competitiveness in EMU
  • Welcome German, French competitiveness proposals
12:03
ECB NOYER: Need strict budget policies in eurozone
  • Need to improve competitiveness in EMU
  • Welcome German, French competitiveness proposals
11:54
GERMAN SCHAEUBLE: Germany never insisted on ECB top job
11:06
EUR/JPY follows euro down

EUR/JPY fell amid euro/dollar decline as US dollar index continues to rise. Lack of upside progress in dollar yen has sent the cross back through Y113.00 to Y112.83. Support seen now towards Y112.60/70, with stops below. Resistance above at Y113.40/45. Cross trades Y112.84/87.

10:41
EUR/USD under pressure

EUR/USD printed a new low of $1.3512 with one trader reporting sizeable bids of $500m ahaed of the $1.3500 barrier. Also some Middle Eastern demand spotted towards $1.3510/15. Euro dollar now $1.3524/26.

10:21
Fitch affirms italian province of venice at 'AA-'; Outlook stable
10:02
FTSE -18.68 -0.31% 6,001.33, CAC -23.37 -0.57% 4,071.77, Dax -20.25 -0.28% 7,320.03
09:49
OPTIONS: expiries for the 15:00 GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3500, $1.3620, $1.3725                   
USD/JPY Y82.25, Y82.35, Y82.46, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.25, Y84.00, Y85.40
USD/CHF chf1.0000
AUD/USD $0.9735, $0.9825, $0.9950, $1.0000
AUD/CAD C$0.9680

09:34
UK DATA:

Jan producer output prices +1% m/m; +4.8% y/y 
Jan producer input prices +1.7% m/m; +13.4% y/y 

09:01
Asian session: The dollar rose

The dollar and the Swiss franc rose against most of their major counterparts as concern the turmoil in Egypt will worsen and a decline in Asian stocks boosted demand for safer assets.
The U.S. currency gained for a second day versus the euro after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak defied calls for his immediate resignation, agreeing only to delegate powers until an election in September. 
Australia’s dollar slid below parity with the greenback as Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said policy makers judged it was “sensible” to keep interest rates on hold. South Korea’s won weakened after the central bank unexpectedly left rates unchanged
The dollar headed for a second weekly gain against the yen before a report today that economists said will show U.S. consumer confidence improved this month.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 75 from 74.2 in January, according to a survey.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1.3560.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1.6050.
USD/JPY: the pair grown in around Y83.50.

UK data at 0930GMT includes Construction Output data but is dominated by Produces Prices for January. PPI Output is expected to rise 0.6% m/m, 4.5% y/y with Core-Output prices at 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y and input prices at 1.5% m/m, 12.8% y/y.
At 1730GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet participates in an event in Bremen.
US data starts at 1330GMT, when the international trade gap is forecast to widen to $41.0 billion in December after narrowing further to $38.3 billion in November. Analysts will be watching the data closely to help reshape their 4Q GDP forecasts. Import prices rose 1.1% in December on a 3.9% surge in petroleum import prices. At the same time, export prices were boosted by a 1.7% rise in exported agriculture prices, based on data from the BLS. Boeing reported 24 aircraft deliveries to foreign buyers in December, up from 18 in October. US data 
continues at 1455GMT, when the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a reading of 75.0 in early-February.

08:44
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japan’s Topix index rose for five consecutive days, as shipping lines gained along with higher cargo tariffs and after some companies reported higher profits.
Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan’s largest shipping line by sales, climbed 2.2 percent after a measure of bulk cargo tariffs jumped. Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co., a maker of the building material, surged 6.8 percent after the company reported a nine-month profit. Takata Corp., which makes automobile safety equipment, jumped 6.3 percent after it said earnings more than tripled.
The Topix index rose 0.3 percent to 946.63 with about three stocks advancing for every two that fell at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.1 percent to 10,606.65. For the week, the Nikkei has increased 0.6 percent, while the Topix is up 1.2 percent. Japan’s market will be closed tomorrow for a holiday.
Nippon Yusen rose 2.2 percent to 373 yen. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., the second-largest shipping line by sales, climbed 2.2 percent to 558 yen. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., the No. 3, increased 3.8 percent to 360 yen. The industry group that includes the companies gained the most among the 33 groups in the Topix.

European stocks declined for a third day, the longest stretch of losses since November, amid growing concern that accelerating global inflation will lead to higher borrowing costs.
Air France-KLM Group tumbled 7.7 percent after reporting an unexpected loss. Credit Suisse Group AG and Danske Bank A/S sank more than 5 percent as earnings missed analysts’ estimates. Deutsche Boerse AG climbed 4.6 percent after the operator of the Frankfurt exchange said it’s in talks to buy NYSE Euronext.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent to 286.78 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. The gauge reached the highest level since September 2008 earlier this week amid optimism that the economic recovery is accelerating and policies to support indebted countries using the euro will succeed. The rally had pushed the measure to about 16 times the reported earnings of its companies, near the highest level in nine months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Most U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier slump, as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s plan to delegate authority to his vice president spurred optimism the nation’s political crisis will not threaten the global economy.
Whole Foods Market Inc. surged 12 percent as the natural- goods grocer raised its annual forecasts. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. rose 14 percent as the biggest U.S. tiremaker reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Cisco Systems Inc. and Akamai Technologies Inc. slumped at least 14 percent after reporting forecasts that trailed analysts’ estimates.
About 10 stocks rose for every nine that fell on U.S. exchanges. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.1 percent to 1,321.87 at 4 p.m. in New York, reversing an earlier slide of as much as 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 10.60 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,229.29, erasing most of an earlier 83-point slump, and still snapping an eight-day rally.
The S&P 500 has risen as much as 96 percent from its 12- year low in 2009 as better-than-forecast economic data and company earnings boosted confidence in the economic recovery. About 74 percent of the 339 companies in the S&P 500 that reported results since Jan. 10 have topped analysts’ per-share profit predictions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.




08:41
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (high of November and December)
Resistance 3:Y83.70 (Jan 7 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.50 (session high)
Current price: Y83.42
Support 1:Y83.20 (session low)
Support 2:Y82.90 (support line from Feb 4)
Support 3:Y82.20 (Feb 9 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance - Y83.50. Above growth is possible to Y83.70. The nearest support Y83.20. Below losses are possible   to Y82.90.

08:19
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6275/00 (Nov 4 and Feb 3 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6180 (Feb 7 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6130 (resistance line from Feb 7)
Current price: $1.6045
Support 1 : $1.6010 (Feb 10 low)
Support 3 : $1.5920 (38.2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280)
Support 3 : $1.5820/10 (50.0 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280, Jan 31 low)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support - $1.6010. Below is  possible testings of around $1.5920. The nearest resistance - $1.6130. Above growth is possible to $1.6180.   

08:19
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9920 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9780 (high of January)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9700 (session high,  resistance line from Aug 11)
Current price: Chf0.9687
Support 1: Chf0.9680 (session low)
Support 1: Chf0.9630 (support line from Feb 2)
Support 1: Chf0.9560/50 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.9330-Chf0.9700, Feb 9 low)
 
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest resistance Chf0.9700. Above is located Chf0.9780. The nearest support Chf0.9680. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9630. 

07:49
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3745 (Feb 9 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3710 (resistance line from Feb 2)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3620 (session high)
Current price: $1.3571
Support 1 : $1.3560 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3510 (Feb 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.3480 (38.2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.3860)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support - $1,3560. Below  decrease is possible to $1.3510. The nearest resistance - $1,3620.  Above growth is possible  to $1,3745.

07:15
Schedule for today, Friday, Feb 11 2011:

07:00 Germany CPI (January) final -0.5% 1.0%
07:00 Germany CPI (January) final Y/Y 1.9% 1.7%
07:00 Germany HICP (January) final Y/Y 2.0% 1.9%
07:00 Germany Wholesale prices (January) 1.0% 1.8%
07:00 Germany Wholesale prices (January) Y/Y 9.0% 9.5%
09:30 UK PPI (Output) (January) unadjusted 0.5% 0.5%
09:30 UK PPI (Output) (January) unadjusted Y/Y 4.4% 4.2%
09:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (January) adjusted 0.3% 0.2%
09:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (January) unadjusted Y/Y - 2.9%
09:30 UK PPI (Input) (January) adjusted 0.9% 3.4%
09:30 UK PPI (Input) (January) unadjusted Y/Y 12.0% 12.5%
13:30 USA International trade (December), bln -40.2 -38.3
13:30 USA Export (December), bln - 159.7
13:30 USA Import (December), bln - 198.0
14:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (February) preliminary 75.2 74.2

05:01
Календарь на сегодня, пятницу, 11 февраля 2011 года:

07:00 Германия Индекс потребительских цен, окончательные данные, м/м   январь -0,5% -0,5%
07:00 Германия Индекс потребительских цен, окончательные данные, г/г   январь +1,9% +1,9%
07:00 Германия Индекс потребительских цен (базовое значение), окончательные данные, г/г   январь +2,0% +2,0%
09:30 Великобритания Индекс отпускных цен производителей (м/м)   январь +0,5% +0,5%
09:30 Великобритания Индекс отпускных цен производителей, г/г   январь +4,2% +4,4%
09:30 Великобритания Индекс закупочных цен производителей, м/м   январь +3,4% +0,9%
09:30 Великобритания Индекс закупочных цен производителей, г/г   январь +12,5% +12,0%
13:30 США Торговый баланс, млрд.  декабрь -38.3 -40.2
13:30 Канада Сальдо торгового баланса, млрд декабрь -0.08 -0.40
14:55 США Индекс потребительских настроений от Reuters/Michigan  февраль 74,2 75,2

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