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11.01.2011
19:24
USD/JPY retreats

USD/JPY has leaked back to Y83.25 area now as euro-yen beats a retreat back under Y108.00, the dollar earlier inflicting losses on stops positioned above Y83.35 but unable to take out the post-payrolls high around Y83.70. Dollar pair still said to see few offers this side of Y84.00 though talk does indicate that some light exporter sell interest is layered above the market. Most of that interest said positioned above Y84.00 and above Y84.50.

19:06
US: Target Corp announced it will open 21 new stores this year.
18:48
Dow +35.61 at 11673.06, Nasdaq +9.41 at 2717.06, S&P +4.36 at 1274.11

Stocks were recently smacked with a sudden selling effort that saw the Dow drop about 40 points to a session low in only a matter of a couple of minutes. No clear catalyst to account for the move lower has surfaced. No particular sector led the slide either. Also, results from an auction of 3-year Notes were neither so bad nor so good to cause any kind of reaction among equities traders.

18:40
GBP/USD holds above $1.5600

GBP/USD holds $1.5614 area after seeing post-fixing highs around $1.5639. While cable has stalled and reversed, still holds a firm tone as euro-sterling remains on the defensive at the lower end of its session range. Euro-sterling has respected support around stg0.8280/85 area but stops are reported below that level, cable said to hold stops above $1.5650.

18:14
US focus: Euro gains most in almost six weeks on Japan pledge to buy European bonds

The euro rallied the most against the yen in almost six weeks as Japan planned to buy bonds issued by Europe’s financial-aid funds, joining China in assisting the region as it confronts its debt crisis. The euro also gained versus the New Zealand dollar and the South African rand as Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said it’s appropriate for his nation to help nations such as Ireland.

“Japan is acting to support the euro,” said Jessica Hoversen, analyst at the futures broker MF Global Holdings Ltd. “You’ve had the euro zone trying to solve the debt crisis. Now it looks as though we need multilateral support. The Chinese and Japanese efforts to purchase debt are the first steps toward that.”
Europe’s financial aid funds for distressed governments will sell bonds to raise as much as 34.1 billion euros ($44.2 billion) for Ireland in 2011 and 14.9 billion euros in 2012, the European Commission said last month.
Australia’s dollar fell against all of its most-traded counterparts as rising floodwaters rushed toward the coastal city of Brisbane, where evacuations were under way.
The greenback rose versus the yen for the first time in three days before figures expected to show the world’s largest economy is recovering.
U.S. retail sales climbed 0.8% last month, the same amount as in November, according to the median forecast of economists. The report from the Commerce Department is due Jan. 14.

17:51
ECB WEBER: EMU overall on right path out of sovereign debt crisis
  • Germany recovery to continue strong but more moderate
  • Germany economy could regain pre-crisis level by end-2011
  • Germany private consumption to grow
  • Financial markets not primarily responsible for sovereign debt crisis
  • Countries hit by sovereign debt crisis must rebuild confidence
  • Can't exclude new crises; need permanent crisis mechanism
17:26
US EIA: New outlook says '11 world oil demand +1.4m bpd, +1.6m in '12.
15:23
Dow +37.08 at 11674.53, Nasdaq +5.67 at 2713.47, S&P +3.14 at 1272.89
Selling pressure has intensified to extend the stock market's morning slide. The pullback has been rather broad and coincides with a bounce by the dollar, which is now at its morning high with a 0.2% gain against a basket of competing currencies. The latest wholesale inventory data was just released. Inventories for November fell 0.2%, which contrasts with the consensus call for a 1.0% increase among economists polled by Briefing.com. The wholesale inventory number isn't usually a number that is followed by broader market participants, however. Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.8%), Financials (+0.5%), Materials (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%), Tech (+0.1%) Declining Sectors: Telecom (-1.2%), Utilities (-0.1%)
15:02
US DATA: Nov wholesale inventories -0.2%.
14:56
Dow +45.29 at 11682.74, Nasdaq +7.68 at 2715.48, S&P +4.39 at 1274.14
The major equity averages have pulled back a bit since making a nice start to the session. Gains remain broad, but energy stocks are out in front with a 0.9% gain. The group is currently led by oil and gas equipment plays and refiners. Telecom continues to trail. The sector is down 0.9%. With its slide this morning, the telecom sector has shed more than 5% over four sessions so that it is coming within reach of its 50-day moving average.
14:19
Before the bell: U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Tuesday, as Japan's pledge to buy eurozone bonds eased jitters.


Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were up ahead of the opening bell. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance.

On Monday, stocks ended just below breakeven, following a sell-off in European markets as investors worried about a possible bailout for Portugal.

Tuesday's light economic schedule could lead markets to snap those losses and drift higher as investors hunt for bargains, said Bruce McCain, chief market strategist at Key Private Bank.

What U.S. and Portugal have in common
"With a lack of economic statistics out today there's not a whole lot to worry about, so that may give little assurance to those inclined to buy, and give a lift to the market," said McCain.

"But the market is pretty extended in terms of investor sentiment and in terms of having made a strong run, so it needs to pull back at some point and digest the gains it has made," he added.

World markets: European stocks rose in morning trading, amid reports Japan will buy eurozone bonds to help prevent the spread of the region's debt crisis.

"The debt crisis is a lot of what was weighing on the market yesterday, so some of these fears seem overblown as investors look at Japan's entry," said McCain. "Certainly there's a lot of buying power in Japan, so if they are seriously willing to help Europe by buying up some of those bonds, that will limit -- to a degree -- the downside the sovereign debt crisis poses."

Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 1.2%, the DAX in Germany gained 0.8% and France's CAC 40 climbed 1%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 1%, while Japan's Nikkei edged down 0.3%.

Economy: The Commerce Department releases its wholesale inventories report before the bell. Inventories are expected to have risen 1.0% in November, after jumping 1.9% in October.

13:05
European session:

Data:
05:00     Japan Coincident Index     102,1
05:00     Japan      Leading Economic Index     101,0

The euro rose from near a three- month low against the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said it was appropriate for his nation to buy euro-area government bonds to support Ireland.
The single currency strengthened the most against the Australian and New Zealand dollars among its 16 major counterparts amid bets Japan’s bond purchases may help ease Europe’s debt crisis. The dollar gained for the first time in three days versus the yen before a U.S. report that economists said will show confidence among small businesses increased. Australia’s dollar fell to a four-week low as flooding in the state of Queensland worsened.
Europe’s financial aid funds for distressed governments will sell bonds to raise as much as 34.1 billion euros ($44.2 billion) for Ireland in 2011 and 14.9 billion euros in 2012, the European Commission said last month.
“The paper is going to be AAA, so of course it’s going to be oversubscribed with the euro rallying,” Kenneth Broux, a senior market economist at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets in London, said of the planned European debt. “But the fact that Asian investors are going to buy these bonds isn’t going to resolve the crisis in some of the countries. The euro remains a sell on rallies.”

EUR/USD: traded within $1.2910-$1.2990 range. Offers: $1.3000, $1.3020/25. Bids: $1.2910/00, $1.2890/85, $1.2860, $1.2850, $1.2830/25, $1.2800.

GBP/USD: tested support at $1.5505/1.5495, before bounced back to the session high $1.5590.

USD/JPY: due to dollar weakness across the board eased back down through Y83.00 to Y82.90. Support seen towards Y82.65/70 with stops reportedly through Y82.60.


US data starts at 1245GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data. At 1330GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser is due to deliver a speech on the economic outlook to the RMA
Philadelphia Chapter meeting. US data then continues at 1355GMT with the weekly Redbook Average, while at 1500GMT, the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and Wholesale Inventories data are due. Late US data includes the release of the weekly ABC/Wash Post Consumer Confidence Index.

12:09
EUR/GBP tech comments

Decent supply seen in euro-sterling in recent trade, but this sell interest is getting easily absorbed. Rate edges up to stg0.8320. Offers seen to stg0.8330, more to stg0.8340 with stops above.

11:38
Peripheral bonds extend tightening after traders reported ECB was buying bonds as part of Securities Market Program (SMP)

Irish 10-year spread is 10bps tighter at +594bps

Portgual 10-year spread is 6bps tighter at +405bps.

11:06
ECB BUYING PERIPHERAL BONDS AGAIN
10:58
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3000, $1.3020/25
Bids: $1.2910/00, $1.2890/85, $1.2860, $1.2850, $1.2830/25, $1.2800

10:13
European stocks retain positive mood

Broader market sentiment was lifted by a decent start to the fourth-quarter reporting season in the United States, where Aluminium producer Alcoa (AA.N) kicked things off posting profit that topped Wall Street forecasts.

Banks led shares higher on Tuesday, after bullish broker comment lifted a sector which has been dogged by euro zone sovereign debt worries.

09:37
EUR/USD remains within former range

Recovery off retest lows at $1.2912 seen meeting resistance around $1.2946 (76.4% $1.2957/12), a break above to open a move back toward $1.2970/75 ahead of stronger interest from overnight highs at $1.2992 through to $1.3000. Bids remains around $1.2912 with talk now emerging of stop entry interest positioned on a break of $1.2910.

09:27
Asian session: The shared currency strengthened

Data:
05:00     Japan Coincident Index     102,1
05:00     Japan      Leading Economic Index     101,0

The shared currency strengthened versus 9 of its 16 major counterparts on speculation that Japan’s bond purchases will ease Europe’s fund-raising crisis.
The dollar gained for the first time in three days versus the yen before a U.S. report today that may show confidence among small businesses rose to a three-year high.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners including the euro and the yen, added 0.1 percent to 80.964 today.
The Australian dollar fell to a three-week low as flooding in the state of Queensland worsened, adding to concern economic growth will slow.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,2910-$ 1,2990.

GBP/USD: the pair slightly decreased.

USD/JPY: the pair become stronger above mark Y83,00.


US data starts at 1245GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data. At 1330GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser is due to deliver a speech on the economic outlook to the RMA
Philadelphia Chapter meeting. US data then continues at 1355GMT with the weekly Redbook Average, while at 1500GMT, the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and Wholesale Inventories data are due. Late US data includes the release of the weekly ABC/Wash Post Consumer Confidence Index.

09:25
Ireland: NTMA Oliver Whelan: Possible to return to market next year
  • Hope rates, conditions acceptable by next year;
  • Debt burden can be managed as economy recovers.
09:20
Forex: Monday's review

The dollar fell for the first time in six days against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as global stocks pared losses and commodities gained, damping demand for the relative safety of greenback.
The euro rose from the lowest level against the dollar since September before sovereign-debt auctions in Portugal, Spain and Italy on speculation the currency’s biggest weekly drop since August would be hard to sustain.
Canada’s dollar gained, reversing earlier losses, as the rebound in commodity prices overshadowed Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Crude oil, Canada’s largest export, rose 1.1%.
The Dollar Index advanced 2.5% last week in its biggest rally since August as reports showed U.S. services industries expanded in December at the fastest pace in four years and employers added jobs for a third month.
The greenback will gain 5% versus the euro and 11% versus the yen, according to Nick Bennenbroek, head strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. and the most accurate currency forecaster in the six quarters ended Dec. 31.
U.S. retail sales climbed 0.8% last month, the same amount as in November, according to the median forecast of economists in a survey before the Commerce Department publishes the figures on Jan. 14.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,2870-$ 1,2970.

GBP/USD: on results of the yesterday's tenders the pair has become stronger in area $1,5570.

USD/JPY: on results of the yesterday's tenders the pair has decreased below mark Y83,00.


US data starts at 1245GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data. At 1330GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser is due to deliver a speech on the economic outlook to the RMA
Philadelphia Chapter meeting. US data then continues at 1355GMT with the weekly Redbook Average, while at 1500GMT, the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and Wholesale Inventories data are due. Late US data includes the release of the weekly ABC/Wash Post Consumer Confidence Index.

09:11
CHINA: Revises up 2009 GDP growth to 9.2% from 9.1% previous
08:47
US Stocks: Monday's review

Stocks settled the first session of the new week in mixed fashion after starting on a soft note. Tech helped improve the tone of trade.
Overseas markets moved lower overnight and early this morning. Their losses came in conjunction with a drop in China's trade balance to $13.1 billion in December from $22.9 billion in the prior month and persistent speculation about the possibility of additional bailouts in and around the eurozone.
There was no domestic data this morning. Headlines related to merger and acquisition activity comprised most of the corporate news, but the broader market was generally unenthused about the deal making. Still, Playboy (PLA 6.09, +0.89) got a nice pop after it was learned that the company will be taken private for $6.15 per share. Duke Energy (DUK 17.58, -0.21) announced plans to acquire Progress Energy (PGN 43.99, -0.73) in a stock transaction that values PGN at $46.48 per share, a premium of about 4% over PGN's closing price last week.
Education providers were hit with some of the hardest selling this session. The group gave up more than 7% after Strayer Education (STRA 118.60, -34.64) trimmed expectations for 2011 on Friday after trade had closed for the weekend.
Tech stocks had a choppy start, but a bid for semiconductors (+1.0%) helped the group recover. The sector's gradual grind higher helped push the Nasdaq Composite into positive territory for a modest gain and gave the Nasdaq 100 a 0.3% gain.
An improved tone among traders helped volatility cool after the Volatility Index (VIX) had spiked almost 9% to come within reach of its 50-day moving average and set its highest level in a month.
Oil prices ended 1.4% higher at $89.25 per barrel. Prices were helped by news that the Trans Alaska Pipeline, which carries close to 15% of the United State's oil output, was closed for a leak. The pipeline is partly owned by BP (BP 46.03, -0.05), Exxon Mobil (XOM 75.15, -0.44), ConocoPhillips (COP 66.88, -0.23), and Chevron (CVX 90.41, -0.78).
Earnings season unofficially gets under way with this evening's report from Dow component Alcoa (AA 16.49, +0.07). Reports really don't pick up in earnest until next week, though.

08:44
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (high of December)
Resistance 2:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1:Y83,70 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: Y83.12
Support 1:Y82.90 (support line from Jan 4)
Support 2:Y82.65 (38,2 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)
Support 3:Y82.30 (50,0 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)

Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks.The nearest resistance - Y83,70. Above growth is possible to Y83.90. The nearest support - Y83,00. Below losses are possible to Y82.65.

08:42
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9770 (61,8 % FIBO Chf1,0070-Chf0,9300)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9730 (Jan 10 high)
Current price: Chf0.9675
Support 1: Chf0.9600 (Jan 7 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9575 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9730)
Support 3: Chf0.9500 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9730)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance Chf0,9730. Above is located Chf0.9735. The nearest support Chf0,9600. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9550.

08:39
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5710 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5350)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5660 (Dec 31 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5590 (resistance line from Dec 31)
Current price: $1.5558
Support 1 : $1.5540 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5470 (Jan 10 low)
Support 3 : $1.5420 (support line from Dec 30)


Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,5550. The nearest support - $1,5540. Below decrease is possible to $1.5470. The nearest resistance - $1,5570. Above growth is possible to $1,5660.

07:46
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3170 (Jan 6 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3075 (around of Dec 21, 22, 27 and 29 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3020 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: $1.2938
Support 1 : $1.2870 (Jan 6 low)
Support 2 : $1.2800 (61,8 % FIBO $1.1870-$ 1.4280)
Support 3 : $1.2640 (low of September)

Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest support - $1,2870. Below decrease is possible to $1.2800. The nearest resistance - $1,3020. Above growth is possible to $1,3075.

07:23
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jan'11'2011:

05:00     Japan Coincident Index     100,7     102,2     102,1
05:00     Japan      Leading Economic Index     -     97,7         101,0
15:00     USA Wholesale Inventories     1,9%     1,0%     
22:00     USA ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence     -45         
23:50     Japan Trade Balance     ¥912.9B     ¥297.7B

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