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10.12.2010
19:44
Dow +25.69 at 11395.75, Nasdaq +20.80 at 2637.47, S&P +6.83 at 1239.83

The stock market continues to push higher. It is now at the 1240 line, which hasn't been seen since 2008. However, the Dow, which has lagged all session, has yet to clear the two-year high that it set in November.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues its fight against sellers as it clings to a fractional gain. Support at the neutral line has remained intact all session.

18:07
US focus: Euro declines as Merkel, Sarkozy reject increase in Euro zone rescue fund

The euro fell against most of its major counterparts as leaders from Germany and France said they are against increased funding to quell the sovereign-debt crisis before next week’s summit of European Union leaders.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in talks today, said they oppose increasing the European Union’s 440 billion-euro ($581 billion) rescue fund and rejected joint euro-area bonds.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty about how this European sovereign debt crisis is going to pan out,” said Samarjit Shankar, a managing director for the foreign-exchange group at Bank of New York Mellon. “You’re seeing a lot of disagreement at the top policy-maker level and that’s going to continue nagging away at the euro.”
Merkel said that there are “structural weaknesses” in the euro region that must be addressed. “If the euro fails, Europe fails,” Merkel said.
European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio late yesterday signaled European governments should be ready to increase the size and flexibility of their bailout fund as the ECB urges leaders to do more to fight the fiscal crisis.
Merkel said she is against increasing the size of the fund and sharing public debt with the euro zone, saying that European leaders would do what is necessary to defend the euro.
Europe’s sovereign debt crisis took hold at the end of 2009 after a new government in Greece said the budget deficit was twice as big as the previous administration disclosed. The region’s nations assembled a rescue fund in May, which Greece and Ireland have tapped.

The dollar gained against the euro and yen after exports from the U.S. rose to a two-year high in October.
The trade deficit in the U.S. shrank more than forecast in October as a weaker dollar and growing economies overseas propelled exports to a two-year high. The gap narrowed 13% to $38.7 billion, less than the lowest estimate of surveyed economists and the smallest since January, Commerce Department figures showed.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose in December to 74.2, the highest since June, from 71.6 at the end of last month.
“That’s very good news for the U.S. economy and for the dollar if it’s sustained,” said Greg Anderson, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc.. “If U.S. yields hold where they’ve moved to this week, then the dollar ought to rally.”

The Australian dollar headed for a weekly drop against the greenback on speculation China will tighten monetary policy.
The People’s Bank of China increased reserve requirements by 50 basis points starting Dec. 20, the central bank said on its website today. It’s the third increase in five weeks.
China’s consumer prices rose 4.7% in November from a year earlier, a statistics bureau report will show tomorrow, according to the median forecast. That would be the fastest pace since August 2008. The Economic Information Daily said today the figure may be 5.1%.
“The danger is China raises interest rates steeply, causing a hard landing for the Chinese economy, which would obviously hurt Australia’s exports,” said Derek Mumford at Richford Capital.

17:15
ECB: ECB's Mersch; says situation in financial markets recently worsened again and we're now back in a phase of acute crisis.
16:08
US DATA REACT: HFE says the higher 74.2p Dec Michigan consumer sentiment index "was lifted by gains in both the expectations and current conditions"
and the former could reflect higher stock prices and the latter lower jobless claims. "With stocks at new highs expectations can rise further, though higher gas prices are a constraint."
14:58
US DATA: Dec Rtrs-U/Michigan consumer sentiment data incl current conditions 85.7 vs 82.1 and expectations 66.8 vs 64.8. 1y inflation expectations 2.9% and 5y at 2.7%.
14:18
Before the bell: U.S. stocks were poised to open slightly higher Friday, as investors digested the latest data on China's trade surplus and awaited the latest from Washington on the Obama-GOP tax cut deal.



Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were up between 0.2% to 0.3% ahead of the opening bell. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance.

China's trade surplus narrowed 16% in November. Separately, China's central bank announced the latest increase of the reserve requirement ratio for banks, according to the government-controlled media outlet Xinhua.

"We know China is blowing up - and we say that in the best sense of the word," said Chip Brian, chief executive of MySmartrend.com, which analyzes over 6,000 stocks in realtime. "It is obvious now that the government has recognized they have a growth issue." That China is taking appropriate steps to prevent explosive growth "is a good thing, that speaks to the maturation of the economy itself."

China is hot. But is it too hot?
Brian expects that the People's Bank of China will also raise interest rates, as is widely anticipated.

Earlier in the week, investors cheered as Washington appeared close to reaching a compromise deal to extend Bush-era tax cuts for another two years. But House Democrats voted Thursday against considering the tax package, which would also provided for extended unemployment benefits and a break in payroll taxes.

Investors are mostly confident that some tax rate hike will be passed. "You are going to have a bipartisan coming to the middle," said Brian. "When that is going to take place, I couldn't tell you specifically."

On Thursday stocks ended mixed, as a stronger dollar dragged on commodity-related companies, while financial and tech shares firmed. Going forward, "we will continue to move sideways to upwards, which is good," said Brian.

World markets: Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.1%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped less than 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.7%.

China's trade surplus fell to $22.9 billion in November, according to the state-controlled Xinhua news agency in China. That marks a 16% decrease over October's $27.2 billion surplus.

Also, the People's Bank of China said it would lift the bank reserve requirement ratio by one-half percentage points as of Dec. 20, so that banks now will have to set aside 18.5% of their reserves, according to Xinhua. This is the sixth such hike this year as China attempts to put a damper on what "runaway lending amid accelerating inflation."

European stocks rose at midday. Britain's FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%, the DAX in Germany rose 0.7% and France's CAC 40 added 0.3%.


Economy: Before the opening bell, the U.S. government will issue its monthly report on the U.S. trade balance. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect the trade gap to have widened to $44.5 billion in October from $44 billion the previous month.


Companies: Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ, Fortune 500) McNeil division late Thursday announced a recall of more than 13 million packages of various Rolaids medicines following consumer complaints of foreign materials, including metal and wood particles. Shares of Johnson & Johnson were little changed in premarket trade.

Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) reported fourth-quarter net income of $27 million, or 20 cents per share. Analysts had expected earnings per share of 20 cents, according to estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Green Mountain also lowered the bottom end of its forecast range by 3 cents, citing "expected volatility in coffee prices, and flexibility to support anticipated new product launches."

Investors were more disappointed by the fact tha that the company said it would no longer provide specific guidance about its K-Dup sales. Shares of Green Mountain Coffee sank 17% in premarket trade.

Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH, Fortune 500) announced Thursday that it has made an offer to acquire smaller rival Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC, Fortune 500) for $6 per share, a premium of 40% over Tenet's closing stock price Thursday. An initial offer to Tenet was rejected and this is Community Health Systems' second attempt. Shares of Community Health Systems fell 5%, while shares of Tenet Healthcare surged 49% in premarket trading.

13:36
US DATA: Oct trade bal printed a better than expected -$38.7b (lowest since Jan and vs -$44.6b in Sept) as imports -$0.9b and exports +$4.9b to a high since Aug'08.
This is a second favorable monthly report. In imports, -$2.3b crude oil (due to lower volumes) was partly offset by +$1.3b consumer goods (pharma, apparel, gems, toys). Oct oil deficit was -$19.1b, lowest since -$18b in Oct'09 so there might be some residual seasonality in the data. Exports gain was broad-based and reflected +$1.6b oil-related, +$735m foods to new record levels, +$430m autos, and gains in eqpt. NSA trade bal by country: with China -$25.5b vs -$27.8b Sept, Japan -$5.7b vs -$5b, OPEC -$5.7b vs -$8.9b. Shows Asia and oil remain problems. Oct real goods trade bal stands $4.6b narrower than the Q3 avg, suggesting perhaps a 0.5pt boost to GDP if sustained (more likely the booost will be less as Nov trade bal retraces).
13:13
European session:


The euro fell against 11 of its 16 most traded counterparts as officials disagreed on how to quell the sovereign-debt crisis before next week’s summit of European Union leaders.
France yesterday backed Germany in refusing to add to the European Union’s 440 billion-euro ($581 billion) rescue fund and rejecting joint euro-area bonds.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are due to hold talks in Germany today. With the euro region’s two biggest economies digging in over further measures to stem the debt crisis in Europe, EU leaders meeting next week may struggle to offer financial markets any respite.
European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio late yesterday signaled European governments should be ready to increase the size and flexibility of their bailout fund as the ECB urges leaders to do more to fight the fiscal crisis.
Spanish and Italian government bonds fell, increasing the additional yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds, amid concern government borrowing costs will rise at debt sales next week.
The opposition is “going to probably scupper the e-bonds idea and would probably be taken quite negatively by the markets, so we could see the euro coming back under pressure,” said Ian Stannard, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London.
The Australian dollar is set for a weekly drop on concern Chinese inflation data tomorrow will back the case for the Asian nation to tighten monetary policy.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.3220/80. Offers: $1.3270, $1.3285/00, $1.3310/25. Bids: $1.3220, $1.3195/90, $1.3120

GBP/USD: retains an underlying buoyant tone, the corrective pullback off highs of $1.5863 found decent support at $1.5820 with rate moving into the US open around $1.5845. Next resistance seen at $1.5875 ahead of $1.5890/00. Support $1.5820 then $1.5800.

USD/JPY: Slipped to a low of Y83.45, but reported stops if triggered have been absorbed well, with market trading around Y83.50 ahead of the NY opening. Further bids are reported Y83.30/40 with stops seen down at Y83.00/15.


US data starts at 1330GMT with Trade and the Import, Export Price Index. The international trade gap is expected to hold steady at $44.0b billion in October after narrowing in September. Import prices rose 0.9% in October on a 3.3% rise in petroleum prices and a 0.4% combined gain in the other import categories. Boeing reported 108 orders in October, down slightly from 117 in September. At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 72.2 in early-December from 71.6 in November. Late US data at 1900GMT sees the Treasury Statement, where Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 billion budget gap in November. The Treasury posted a $120.3 billion gap in November 2009.

12:50
GERMANY MERKEL: No question for Germany of increasing EFSF


Have said clearly eurobonds not useful
What's needed is consistent economic policies in EMU
Germany will with others do all needed to defend euro
EU summit next wk must make permanent bailout mech.
Must reflect on how to overcome competitive divergence

12:49
GERMANY MERKEL: No question for Germany of increasing EFSF


Have said clearly eurobonds not useful
What's needed is consistent economic policies in EMU
Germany will with others do all needed to defend euro
EU summit next wk must make permanent bailout mech.
Must reflect on how to overcome competitive divergence

12:43
Orders desk:


EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3270, $1.3285/00, $1.3310/25
Bids: $1.3220, $1.3195/90, $1.3120

12:15
USD/JPY under pressure

Slipped to a low of Y83.45, but reported stops if triggered have been absorbed well, with market trading around Y83.50 ahead of the NY opening. Further bids are reported Y83.30/40 with stops seen down at Y83.00/15.

12:02
GBP/USD tech comments

Retains an underlying buoyant tone, the corrective pullback off highs of $1.5863 found decent support at $1.5820 with rate moving into the US open around $1.5845. Next resistance seen at $1.5875 ahead of $1.5890/00. Support $1.5820 then $1.5800.

10:58
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut


EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3325, $1.3400
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.20, Y83.65, Y84.80, Y85.00
EUR/JPY Y110.00, Y114.00
GBP/USD $1.5750
USDF/CHF Chf0.9850, Chf1.0000
AUD/USD $0.9695, $0.9700, $0.9795, $0.9800, $0.9850, $0.9900, $1.0000
EUR/AUD A$1.3500
AUD/CHF Chf0.9730

09:51
ECB MERSCH ON EUROBONDS: Why not expand already existing EFSF

 

  • Eurobond debate hides incapacity to make needed reforms
  • If want to europeanize debt, must europeanize taxes
  • Can't exclude embracing part of eurobond proposal
  • Disturbed by uncertainty caused by comments, proposals
  • ECB bond buying to continue, but we are aware of risks
  • Can't blur line between monetary policy, fiscal policy
  • ECB can't replace lack of action by others
  • Huge amount of reform already done in some EMU states
  • With time markets will appropriately assess reforms
09:50
ECB MERSCH ON EUROBONDS: Why not expand already existing EFSF

 

  • Eurobond debate hides incapacity to make needed reforms
  • If want to europeanize debt, must europeanize taxes
  • Can't exclude embracing part of eurobond proposal
  • Disturbed by uncertainty caused by comments, proposals
  • ECB bond buying to continue, but we are aware of risks
  • Can't blur line between monetary policy, fiscal policy
  • ECB can't replace lack of action by others
  • Huge amount of reform already done in some EMU states
  • With time markets will appropriately assess reforms
09:35
UK: Nov input price data delayed until Dec 13
09:29
UK: Nov producer output prices +0.3% m/m; +3.9% y/y
--Nov core producer output prices +0.2% m/m; +3.3% y/y
09:20
UK PPI Dec input data delayed due to quality issues
09:00
Asian session: The euro was set for a weekly loss

The euro was set for a weekly loss against 10 of its 16 major counterparts as concerns Europe’s debt crisis will linger damped demand for the region’s assets.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, was at 79.977 from 80.032 yesterday, set for a 0.8 percent advance this week.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 72.5 this month from 71.6 in November, according to survey of economists before data.
Demand for the yen was supported amid speculation China will take further measures to cool its economy.
China’s consumer prices prices rose 4.7 percent in November from a year earlier, a statistics bureau report will show tomorrow, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That would be the fastest pace since August 2008. The Economic Information Daily said today the figure may be 5.1 percent.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3280.

GBP/USD: the pair has become stronger above a mark $1,5800.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,60-Y83,85.

UK data sees Producer Prices for November at 0930GMT. Input PPI is  seen at 0.5% m/m and 8.3% higher on year. Output is seen at 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y.
The IEA monthly oil market report is then due, at  0900GMT.
US data starts at 1330GMT with Trade and the Import, Export Price Index. The international trade gap is expected to hold steady at $44.0b billion in October after narrowing in September. Import prices rose 0.9% in October on a 3.3% rise in petroleum prices and a 0.4% combined gain in the other import categories. Boeing reported 108 orders in October, down slightly from 117 in September. At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 72.2 in early-December from 71.6 in November. Late US data at 1900GMT sees the Treasury Statement, where Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 billion budget gap in November. The Treasury posted a $120.3 billion gap in November 2009.

08:40
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro declined after a downgrade to Ireland’s credit rating added to concern Europe’s debt crisis may spread.
The 16-nation currency fell against 13 of its 16 most- traded counterparts as Fitch Ratings reduced Ireland’s rating by three notches and the nation’s government planned a vote on an 85 billion-euro ($114 billion) aid package. The Dollar Index rose for a fourth day after the number of workers filing first- time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell more than forecast.
Fitch cut Ireland’s credit rating to BBB+ from A+, three steps above non-investment grade, citing the mounting cost to rescue the nation’s banking system. “The downgrade reflects the additional fiscal costs of restructuring and supporting the banking system,” Fitch said in the statement. “Ireland’s sovereign credit profile is no longer consistent with a high investment grade rating.”
Applications for U.S. jobless benefits decreased to 421,000, from a revised 438,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would fall to 425,000.
The Australian dollar strengthened against all its major counterparts after a government report showed employers added more than twice as many jobs as economists forecast.
Australia’s currency gained for the first time in four days against the greenback as the extra yield the South Pacific nation’s bonds offer over Treasuries widened and traders added to bets the central bank will boost interest rates.
Australia’s currency rallied after the statistics bureau said employers added 54,600 workers in November, reducing the unemployment rate to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent in October. Economists forecast 20,000 extra jobs, according to a survey.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,3170.

GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1.5770.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83,50-Y84,15.


UK data sees Producer Prices for November at 0930GMT. Input PPI is  seen at 0.5% m/m and 8.3% higher on year. Output is seen at 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y.
The IEA monthly oil market report is then due, at  0900GMT.
US data starts at 1330GMT with Trade and the Import, Export Price Index. The international trade gap is expected to hold steady at $44.0b billion in October after narrowing in September. Import prices rose 0.9% in October on a 3.3% rise in petroleum prices and a 0.4% combined gain in the other import categories. Boeing reported 108 orders in October, down slightly from 117 in September. At 1455GMT, the Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 72.2 in early-December from 71.6 in November. Late US data at 1900GMT sees the Treasury Statement, where Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 billion budget gap in November. The Treasury posted a $120.3 billion gap in November 2009.

08:31
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks gained, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to almost a seven-month high, as Japan’s economy grew faster than expected and the euro strengthened against the yen.
Gross domestic product grew at an annualized 4.5 percent rate in the three months ended Sept. 30, faster than the 3.9 percent reported last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 4.1 percent expansion.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank, rose 3.7 percent. Mitsui Financial Group Inc. climbed 3.5 percent to 2,712 yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan’s third-biggest bank, rose 2.9 percent to 141 yen. Nomura Holdings Inc., the nation’s biggest brokerage, climbed 3.9 percent. T&D Holdings Inc., a life insurer, jumped 4.4 percent. Honda Motor Co., a carmaker that gets about 80 percent of its sales abroad, advanced 1.6 percent. Fanuc Ltd., the nation’s largest maker of industrial robots, gained 1.2 percent as Japanese companies increased capital spending.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average formed a so-called golden cross, indicating the gauge may climb 11 percent back to this year’s April high within the next quarter, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.
Nikkei’s 25-day moving average surpassed the 200-day moving average today to form a golden cross, which is considered by chart watchers to be a bullish signal.

European stocks rose to a two-year high, led by financial shares, as reports reassured investors that the global economic recovery is intact.
Societe Generale SA and Barclays Plc paced a rally in banks. ASML Holding NV advanced 8.2 percent after the company raised its forecast for bookings in the fourth quarter. BG Group Plc rose to the highest in 2 1/2 years after saying it will get about 600 million barrels of oil from initial operations at Brazil’s Tupi and Guara fields. Volkswagen AG led carmakers lower as China said it may end tax incentives for buying passenger cars next year.
The Bank of England kept its emergency stimulus program unchanged after recent data suggested the economy may be strong enough to weather government spending cuts, undermining the case for more aid. The bank also kept its main interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.


U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses as investor optimism after a bigger-than-projected drop in jobless claims offset Democratic opposition to President Barack Obama’s tax-cut agreement with Republicans.
American International Group Inc. soared 11 percent as the Treasury said it will dispose of its stake “as quickly as practicable.” Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. jumped 9.6 percent as Bank of America Corp. raised its rating. DuPont Co. slid 1.9 percent as the bottom end of its 2011 earnings forecast trailed analyst estimates. Airgas Inc. slumped 5.8 percent after Air Products & Chemicals Inc. raised its bid to $70 a share, less than what the company desired.

Three stocks gained for every two that fell on U.S. exchanges. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,230.67 at 2:57 p.m. in New York, reversing an earlier drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 24.79 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,347.69.



07:35
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y85.90 (high of September)
Resistance 2:Y84.40 (Nov 29 high, Dec 1 and 2 high)

Resistance 1:Y84.85 (session high)
Current price: Y83.68
Support 1:Y83.50 (Dec 9 low)
Support 2:Y83.30 (50,0 % FIBO Y82,20-Y84,30)
Support 3:Y82.30 (Dec 7 low, 50.0 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,40)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Y83,70. The nearest support - Y83,50. Below losses are possible to Y83.30. The nearest resistance - Y83,85. Above growth is possible to Y84.40.

06:41
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf1.0070 (Dec 1 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9950 (Dec 3 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9915 (Dec 8 high)
Current price: Chf0.9816
Support 1: Chf0.9810 (Dec 9 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9760 (Dec 7 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 low)

Comments: the pair is under pressure. The nearest support Chf0,9810. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9760. The nearest resistance Chf0,9915. Above is located Chf0.9915.

06:38
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3475 (50.0 % FIBO $1,3790-$ 1,2970, 38.2 % FIBO $1.4280-$ 1.2970)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3430 (Dec 6 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3325 (Dec 9 high)
Current price: $1.3249
Support 1 : $1.3165/80 (Dec 8-9 low)
Support 2 : $1.3060 (Dec 2 low)
Support 3 : $1.2970 (Dec 1 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,3250. The nearest resistance - $1,3325. Above growth is possible to $1,3430. The nearest support - $1,3165/80. Below decrease is possible to $1.3060.

06:36
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5985 (61,8 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5490)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5890 (50,0 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5490)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5830 (Dec 8-9 high)
Current price: $1.5785
Support 1 : $1.5760 (support line from Dec 2)
Support 3 : $1.5655 (Dec 6 low)
Support 3 : $1.5580 (Dec 3 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,5780. The nearest support - $1,5760. Below decrease is possible to $1.5655. The nearest resistance - $1,5830. Above growth possible to $1,5890.

06:08
Schedule for today, Monday, Aug'02'2010:

09:30 UK PPI (Output) (November) unadjusted 0.4% 0.6%

09:30 UK PPI (Output) (November) unadjusted Y/Y - 4.0%

09:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (November) adjusted - 0.4%

09:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (November) unadjusted Y/Y - 3.3%

09:30 UK PPI (Input) (November) adjusted - 2.1%

09:30 UK PPI (Input) (November) unadjusted Y/Y - 8.0%

13:30 USA International trade (October), bln -44.0 -44.0

14:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (December) preliminary 72.4 71.6

19:00 USA Federal budget (November), bln -132.0 -140.4

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