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Wall Street: Dow and Nasdaq trimming losses heading into the final hour of the stock trading day with the Dow down just 110 now vs -180 earlier. Nasdaq is down 22.
EUR/USD printed lows around $1.4322 before back to current $1.4341. Flows light.
US: May Tsy budget -$57.6b
Oil is down over $3.25 to the low at $98.60.
US focus: Euro falls on rate speculation

The euro declined against the dollar for the third day, extending the first weekly drop in almost a month, as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled a slowing pace of interest-rate increases this year.
The euro has lost 1.9% this week.

The ECB yesterday left its inflation forecast for next year unchanged at 1.7% while he signaled the bank intends to lift the benchmark interest rate in July.
The greenback has gained 1% this week.
“Exporters are selling the dollar and buying the yen,” said Takashi Kudo at NTT SmartTrade Inc..
The Japanese currency also rose against higher-yielding currencies as stocks and commodities declined, boosting demand for the yen as a refuge.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 1.2%, heading for its sixth weekly loss.
Crude oil fell below $100 a barrel, sliding as much as 3.1% to $98.7 in New York.

Dow -132.26 at 11992.10, Nasdaq -29.78 at 2655.09, S&P -14.59 at 1274.41

The major market averages are off their worst levels, but are still seeing losses of 1.1% or more for the session.
The S&P 500 Financial Index is under pressure, trading down 1.6% and sporting the largest losses among the 10 S&P 500 sectors.
Insurance giant Travelers (TRV 59.25, -1.83) is seeing the biggest drop trading down 3.0%.
Among other financials banking giants JP Morgan Chase (JPM 40.27, -0.71) and Wells Fargo (WFC 25.77, -0.45) are each down 1.7%.

Dow -138.85 at 11985.51, Nasdaq -31.58 at 2653.29, S&P -15.27 at 1273.73

Stocks are off their worst levels of the session, but are still sharply lower. All three of the major market averages are seeing losses of 1.2%.
Shares of Toyota Motor (TM 80.81, -1.11) are off 1.4% after the company said it is expecting full year 2012 revenues of JPY280 billion, well below the consensus of JPY432 billion.
Fellow Japanese automaker Honda Motor Corp. (HMC 36.88, -0.32) is trading down 0.9% on the news.

Oil weakens

Crude oil continues to tumble, partly on a lack of topside followthrough, partly on risk aversion, and partly on a report in the al-Hayat newspaper stating that Saudi Arabia will boost production in July to 10 million barrels per day (from 8.8mn in May), traders say. It's largely expected after the lack of agreement at this week's OPEC meeting, they note. The front contract holds at $99 per barrel, down from an earlier high of $102.15 and up from a low of $98.79. In May, crude posted a 31-month high of $114.83 (May 2) only to fall to $94.63 (May 6). This month, oil has traded in a $97.74 (June 7) to $103.31 (June 1) range.

EUR/USD falling

EUR/USD continues to go down and currently holds around lows on $1.4386. Resistance is near recent lows on $1.4440. Rate earlier triggered bids between $1.4440/30 area to spurr the decline.

Dow -97.11 at 12027.25, Nasdaq -16.47 at 2668.40, S&P -10.00 at 1279.00

The major market averages continue to sport moderate losses in early action. The Dow and S&P lead today's decline, each trading down 0.8%
Shares of Lululemon Athletica (LULU 90.97, +4.83) are higher by close to 5.5% at the open after the company announced strong first quarter earnings. The company made $0.46 per share, topping the consensus estimate of $0.38 per share. Revenues climbed 35.1% YoY to $186.8 million, and the company issued upside guidance of $0.42-$0.44 versus the Capital IQ consensus of $0.39. The company also raised its full year 2012 guidance, seeing earnings per share of $2.10-2.16 vs. $2.08 Capital IQ consensus estimate, up from $1.90-2.00 and full year 2012 revenues of $915-930 mln vs. $924.48 mln Capital IQ consensus estimate, up from $885-900 mln.

July WTI -$2.70 to $99.23, just above session lows $99.00.
ECB: Stark sees risk of unanchored inflation expectations
  • See risk of second round inflation effects in EMU;
  • Emerging markets likely to push commodity prices up more;
  • Though inflation driven by commodities, still concerned;
  • Will change monetary policy stance whenever necessary;
  • Keeping interest rates too low for too long is risky;
  • Global monetary policy stance remains very accommodative;
  • Volatility is extensive, uncertainty unusually high;
  • ECB's main financing rate will become more relevant in future;
  • See decreasing dependence of banks on ECB refinancing;
  • National governments must address imbalances urgently.
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to open slightly lower Friday, as investors remain nervous about the slowing economic recovery.
Despite the rebound Thursday, market sentiment is still pessimistic. The Dow and S&P 500 are on pace to post their sixth-consecutive weekly loss.
The selling has been driven by concerns about the economy, following a series of weak reports on the job market, housing and manufacturing activity.
Companies: Toyota (TM) released its forecast for the fiscal year 2012 Friday morning. The auto giant said the fallout from the March earthquake and tsunami will continue to hurt sales, and cause supply disruptions across the industry.
In it's report, Toyota said it could lose $1.6 billion in profits in the current fiscal year. The automaker said it also expects consolidated net income to drop 31% to $3.4 billion in the next fiscal year ending March 31.
Toyota also forecast operating income to drop about 35% for the next business year, based on current exchange rates between the yen and the US dollar.
Lululemon Athletica's (LULU) stock jumped nearly 3% after the maker of athletic clothing reported a profit that topped estimates and raised its outook.
Shares of Fusion-io (FIO) extended their rally, rising 4% in premarket trading. Fusion-io made its public debut Thursday after raising $233.7 million through an initial public offering.
Online music streaming company Pandora said it would sell a total of 14.7 million shares through its previously announced IPO at a price range of $10-$12 a share.
Comcast (CMCSA, Fortune 500) and Micron Technology (MU, Fortune 500) stocks were also on the move early Friday.
Economy: The government reported import prices for May rose 0.4%, excluding oil. That comes after a 0.6% increase in the prior month.
Excluding agriculture, exports increased by 0.5%. That followed a 1.0% increase in April.
World markets:

Oil for July delivery fell 96 cents to $100.97 a barrel.
Gold futures for August delivery slipped $1.40 to $1,540.70 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3% from 2.96% late Thursday.

Orders desk:

Offers: $1.4495/500, $1.4520, $1.4540/50, $1.4600
Bids: $1.4430, $1.4425/20, $1.4405/00, $1.4380

ECB STARK: ECB not against private sector involvement in Greece
  • Personally favor private sector involvement in Greece;
  • Private sector involvement must be purely voluntary;
  • Large private sector involvement w/out coercion unlikely;
  • PSI not needed economically, may be good politically;
  • Must end fruitless discussions, focus on program;
  • We don't participate in any greek bailout negotiations;
  • Won't accept greek debt after greek credit event;
  • Current ideas implicitly consider an ecb involvement;
  • 2012 hicp are staff fcast, gc sees upside infl risks;
  • Staff fcst based on assumption of rising s-term rates;
  • Exit from fixed rate full allot still under discussion;
  • Must address addicted banks problem, will take some months;
  • Liquidity support does not prevent price stab monpol;
  • ECB balance sheet risk is manageable
US: May U.S. import prices +0.2%
European session:

The euro declined versus the dollar, headed for the first weekly drop in four, amid prospects the European Central Bank will slow the pace of interest-rate increases this year.
The common currency fell on concern a resolution to Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will be delayed after ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet rejected any direct participation in a second bailout for Greece. Euribor futures rose, pushing the implied yield on the March 2012 contract down four basis points to 1.93 percent, as traders reduced bets policy makers will boost rates. People expect the ECB to be on hold after raising rates in July.
The euro pared its decline against the dollar as the Bundesbank raised its forecast for German growth to 3.1 percent this year. Gross domestic product will expand 3.1 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012, the Frankfurt-based central bank said in its bi-annual economic outlook today. That compares with a February prediction of 2.5 percent growth for this year and a December forecast of 1.5 percent for 2012.
New Zealand’s dollar approached a record high versus the greenback after data showed China’s imports increased in May. The yen climbed against all its main counterparts on speculation Japanese exporters took advantage of yesterday’s biggest drop this month to buy the currency.

EUR/USD: the pair eased to $1.4445. before bounced back to $1.4480.
GBP/USD: the fell to decreased in area $1.6215, before gained back to $1.6300.
USD/JPY: the pair traded around Y80.00 mark.

US data starts at 1230GMT with the May-11 Import/Export Price Index. At 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $140.0 billion budget gap in May, compared with the $135.9 billion gap in May 2010.

Irish 10-year spread widens 17bps to record high at +800bps.
OPEC: 2011 world demand growth forecast +1.38m bpd, vs +1.41m prior.
USD/CAD under pressure after better than forecast Canadian jobs data

Dropped from around C$0.9755 to C$0.9725 on release of better than forecast Canadian jobs data. Bids seen placed between C$0.9725/20 A break to open a deeper move toward C$0.9700 ahead of C$0.9670/65.

CANADA: May employment +22.3k (Apr +58.3k); unemployment rate 7.4% (Apr 7.6%)
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4500, $1.4400, $1.4375
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.75, Y80.00, Y80.40, Y80.65
EUR/JPY Y116.10, Y115.05, Y115.00
GBP/USD $1.6340, $1.6370
USD/CHF Chf0.8420/30
AUD/USD  $1.0500
AUD/JPY Y84.50

European shares fell on Friday

European shares fell on Friday on persistent concerns about the pace of global economic recovery, though stocks pared losses after the German parliament voted in favour of a motion to approve new aid for Greece.

EFSF, REGLING: The strategy adopted to protect euro is working
  • Real eurozone economy is doing surprisingly well;
  • Countries making adjustments but more needed;
  • Europe fiscal exit strategy on track, unlike US, Japan.
FTSE 5,862 +0.09%, CAC 3,871 -0.19%, DAX 7,169 +0.13%
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4500, $1.4400, $1.4375
USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.75, Y80.00, Y80.40, Y80.65
EUR/JPY Y116.10, Y115.05, Y115.00
GBP/USD $1.6340
USD/CHF Chf0.8420
AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0500
AUD/JPY Y84.50

BBK sees Germany's real GDP growth 3.1% in 2011, 1.8% in 2012

Average CPI +2.5% in 2011, +1.8% in 2012
Unemployment well below 3 mln in 2012; rate 6.5%


Recovery extends to $1.6264, after post data lows of $1.6215, with euro-sterling dropping back from its initial data react high of stg0.89225 to ease under the figure. Resistance in cable now seen at $1.6280/85.

UK Data, PPI:

May Producer Output Prices +0.2% m/m; +5.3% y/y
May Producer Input Prices -2% m/m; +15.7% y/y

UK DATA: Apr manufacturing output -1.5% m/m; +1.3% y/y
UK data: Apr industrial production -1.7% m/m; -1.2% y/y
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei   9,514  +0.50% 
S&P/ASX   4,562  +0.27%  
Shanghai Composite  2,705  +0.07%

 Hang Seng 22,382  -1.01%

Asian session: The euro declined

02:00 China Trade Balance (May) 13.10B

The euro declined versus the dollar, headed for the first weekly drop in four, amid dimming prospects the European Central Bank will accelerate interest-rate increases this year.
The common currency fell on concern a resolution to Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will be delayed after ECB Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet rejected any direct participation in a second bailout for Greece. 
The yen climbed on speculation Japanese exporters took advantage of yesterday’s biggest drop this month to buy the currency.
Losses in the euro against the dollar were limited on speculation the U.S. economic recovery will falter, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
Interest-rate futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed a 23 percent chance U.S. policy makers will increase the target lending rate by March, down from odds of 33 percent a month earlier.

EUR/USD: the pair  decreased in area $1.4480.
GBP/USD: the pair  decreased in area $1.6300.
USD/JPY: the pair   decreased in area Y80.00.

UK data includes industrial production and PPI at 08:30 GMT.
At 0900GMT, the Bundesbank is due to the publish bi-annual German economic outlook repor.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the May-11 Import/Export Price Index. At 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $140.0 billion budget gap in May, compared with the $135.9 billion gap in May 2010.

Forex: Thursday's review

The euro fell, erasing earlier gains, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s 2012 inflation forecast prompted traders to scale back bets for the pace of interest-rate increases. 
The shared European currency slid against the dollar after climbing as much as 0.5 percent, even after Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt that “strong vigilance” is needed to contain inflation, which means policy makers may boost rates in July. The ECB revised its 2012 inflation and gross domestic product forecasts. 
The ECB said inflation next year will accelerate between 1.1 percent and 2.3 percent, compared with an earlier forecast of 1 percent to 2.4 percent. Policy makers see growth in 2012 of 0.6 percent to 2.8 percent, from a previous range of 0.8 percent to 2.8 percent. 
The common currency also declined amid renewed concern that Greece may need to restructure its debt. 
The Dollar Index rose today as the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank 6.7 percent to $43.7 billion in April, Commerce Department figures showed today. 
New Zealand’s currency climbed to a record after the nation’s central bank said borrowing costs will need to rise in the next two years.
The Bank of England kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5 percent at today’s meeting.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in area $1.4520.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in area $1.6370.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in area Y80.30.

UK data includes industrial production and PPI at 08:30 GMT.
At 0900GMT, the Bundesbank is due to the publish bi-annual German economic outlook repor.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the May-11 Import/Export Price Index. At 1800GMT, the U.S. Treasury is expected to post a $140.0 billion budget gap in May, compared with the $135.9 billion gap in May 2010.


Stocks: Thursday's review

Most Japanese stocks declined after the Federal Reserve said the recovery is weakening in some regions of the U.S., sparking concern the world’s biggest economy is slowing.
Honda Motor Co., Japan’s No. 2 carmaker by market value, retreated 0.7 percent. Nintendo Co., a maker of game machines, sank 4.6 percent after UBS AG cut its rating to “neutral.” Tokyo Electric Power Co. closed 4 percent lower after falling as much 26 percent following power failures yesterday at the utility’s crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant.
European shares rose sharply on Thursday, bouncing from six days of losses as investors snapped up beaten-down stocks, notably those related to commodities.
U.S. crude futures edged up as OPEC's decision not to raise output targets at a meeting the day before and a big drop in inventories reported in the United States fuelled concerns about supply.
Total (TOTF.PA), ENI (ENI.MI) and BP (BP.L) rose between 1.2 and 1.4 percent.
Copper trimmed its losses, helped by expectations of higher demand from top consumer China, outweighing U.S. jobless claims data that signalled further slowing in the U.S. economy.
Miners to rise included Anglo American (AAL.L) and Antofagasta (ANTO.L), up 2.2 and 2.5 percent respectively. The STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources Index .SXPP remains the worst performer this year, down more than 12 percent.
The European Central Bank said it opposed forcing private creditors to take part in debt relief for Greece, pushing back against Germany which has demanded a bond swap to lengthen Greek debt maturities. [ID:nLDE7581Z8]
The ECB held its key interest rates at 1.25 percent, but signalled a July interest rate rise. The Bank of England kept its key rate at 0.5 percent.
U.S. stocks advanced, snapping a six- day decline, as the trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed amid record exports and consumer confidence improved.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to economic growth rose 1.2 percent. Mosaic Co. (MOS) and CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) paced gains among fertilizer producers, climbing at least 3.9 percent, after the government reduced its corn-crop estimate. American International Group Inc. (AIG) advanced 3 percent as Deutsche Bank AG recommended buying the shares. Brown-Forman Corp. added 1.7 percent after the maker of Jack Daniel’s whiskey reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1 percent to 1,292.25 at 1:45 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge yesterday fell to 12.1 times its companies’ forecast operating earnings, the cheapest valuation since August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 118.90 points, or 1 percent, to 12,167.84 today.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (May 31 high) 

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (Jun 3 high) 
Resistance 1: Y80.50 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.08
Support 1:Y80.00 (session low)  
Support 2:Y79.70 (Jun 8 low)  
Support 2:Y79.55 (May 5 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support - Y80.00. Below losses are possible to Y79.70. The imeediate resistance - Y80.50. Above growth is possible to Y81.00.                                 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8610 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8330)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8540 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8330)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8450 (Jun 2-3 and 9 high)
Current price: Chf0.8423
Support 1: Chf0.8390 (earlier resistance, session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8330 (Jun 6-7 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair grown. The immediate resistance Chf0.8450. Above is located Chf0.8540. The immediate support - Chf0,8390. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8330.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6550 (Jun 2 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6470 (Jun 7 and 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6380 (session high)
Current price: $1.6315
Support 1 : $1.6300/90 (session low, Jun 3 low)
Support 2 : $1.6250 (61.8 % FIBO $1,6060-$ 1.6550)
Support 3 : $1.6130 (May 15 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1.6300/90. Below  decrease is  possible to $1.6250. The imeediate  resistance - $1.6380. Above growth is possible to $1.6470. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4690 (Jun 7-8 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4650 (Jun 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4550 (session high)
Current price: $1.4488
Support 1 : $1.4475 (Jun 9 low)
Support 2 : $1.4450 (Jun 3 low)
Support 3 : $1.4420 (38.2 % FIBO $1.3970-$ 1.4690)

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1,4475. Below losses are to $1.4450 are possible. The immediate resistance $1.4550. Above growth is possible to $1,4650. 

Schedule for today, Friday, Jun 10'2011:

06:00 Germany  CPI (May) final 0.0% 0.0%

06:00 Germany CPI (May) final Y/Y 2.3% 2.3%
06:00 Germany HICP (May) final Y/Y 2.4% 2.4%
08:30 UK Industrial production (April) 0.0% 0.3%
08:30 UK Industrial production (April) Y/Y 1.3% 0.7%
08:30 UK Manufacturing output (April) 0.0% 0.2%
08:30 UK Manufacturing output (April) Y/Y 3.3% 2.7%
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (May) unadjusted 0.3% 0.8%
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (May) unadjusted Y/Y 5.3% 5.3%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (May) adjusted -1.0% 2.6%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (May) unadjusted Y/Y 16.2% 17.6%
11:00 Canada Employment (May) +25K +58.0K
11:00 Canada Unemployment rate (May) 7.6% 7.6%
12:30 USA Import prices (May) -0.7% 2.2%
12:30 USA Export prices (May) - 1.1%
19:00 USA Federal budget (May), bln -160.0 -40.5

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